Showing posts with label sell-off. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sell-off. Show all posts

Friday, August 16, 2019

Ignore the Noise as Markets Grind Bond Yields Toward Zero

Thursday's trading saw more of the usual up-and-down twerking that usually accompanies large moves in either direction. After Wednesday's rout - the fourth-largest point decline on the Dow Industrials - some bounce was expected, and it did occur early, though markets slipped into the red midday before being rescued by apparently-optimistic investors (central banks, PPT) into the close.

Interesting is the idea that Wednesday's selloff was not met with more panic in the media and by the general public. Stocks have been volatile since October of last year, so the possibility that people are zoned out from the near-constant drubbing and recovery is real.

People should actually care that their college retirement funds are at so much risk in stocks, but that doesn't seem to be the case among the 401K crowd. Getting used to uncertainty is a kind of Stockholm syndrome that is inimitable to the Wall Street casino. The general public may get agitated more over mass shootings, tweets by the president, or a bad call in an NFL game, but when it comes to the money betting on their futures, they are sheepish.

Maybe that's a good thing when talking about market noise, but an 800-point drop on the Dow is something that shouldn't be ignored or overlooked. There are damn good reasons stocks get hammered, and even passive investors should express at least a modicum of concern.

Be that as it may, Thursday was more of the noisy variety, though most other markets - bonds, commodities, futures, FX - were being bounced around pretty vigorously, especially treasury bonds, where the 10-year-note continues to fall, reaching for all-time lows.

The 10-year is hovering in the 1.47 - 1.65 range. The all-time low yield on the benchmark 10-year was 1.375, on July 5, 2016. Anybody wearing a thinking cap clearly sees where this recent decline is headed. With now $16 trillion in bonds yielding negative returns globally, US treasuries stick out like sore thumbs. In the race to the bottom, the 10-year will fall below the record low yield. It's simply a matter of time. Eventually, US bonds will likely carry negative yields as the global financial system, rescued by central banks in 2008-09, completely falls apart over the next three to five years.

Money is dying. Fiat money will die quite painfully.

At the Close, Thursday, August 15, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,579.39, +99.97 (+0.39%)
NASDAQ: 7,766.62, -7.32 (-0.09%)
S&P 500: 2,847.60, +7.00 (+0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 12,409.54, +41.49 (+0.34%)

Friday, August 10, 2018

Stocks Stall Out, Dow Down Second Straight Day; Turkey Sparks Global Sell-Off

Things began turning ugly late on Thursday as the Dow - for the second day in a row - fell sharply nearing the close of the session.

Stocks had been trading nearly unchanged heading into the final hour, but dropped deep into the red to end the day down nearly 75 points. While the drop is hardly more than a rounding error (0.29%), the pattern of losing ground at the end of the session is troubling.

Notice has been taken by market participants. As of Friday morning, Asian bourses closed lower and European indices were off significantly, with the German DAX off by two percent.

In the US, futures are pointing to a large sell-off at the opening bell. The culprit appears to be the currency crisis in Turkey, where the Lira was down more than 12% on the day against the US dollar and is down 66% on the year.

It appears that Turkey is on the verge of a major collapse as President Erdogan defies his critics by refusing to raise interest rates in order to stave off incipient inflation.

The Dow is up just over 40 points for the week. A negative close could end a streak of five straight winning weeks for the 30 blue chip stocks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
8/1/18 25,333.82 -81.37 -81.37
8/2/18 25,326.16 -7.66 -89.03
8/3/18 25,462.58 +136.42 +55.05
8/6/18 25,502.18 +39.60 +94.65
8/7/18 25,628.91 +126.73 +221.38
8/8/18 25,583.75 -45.16 +176.22
8/9/18 25,509.23 -74.52 +101.70

At the Close, Thursday, August 9, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,509.23, -74.52 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 7,891.78, +3.46 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 2,853.58, -4.12 (-0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 12,956.66, -31.25 (-0.24%)

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Stocks Dumped Again As FOMC Meeting Portends Higher Interest Rates

The most obvious cause for Monday's sharp selloff has to be the widely-anticipated 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate which should become official when the FOMC concludes its March meeting on Wednesday.

Getting out in front of the Fed's move was paramount, as stocks slid in early going, gaining a little back in the afternoon. The Dow plunged nearly 500 points intra-day, bottoming out at 24,453.14 just prior to 3:00 pm EDT.

Anybody playing the market net short has to be pleased with recent results while bulls may be looking to gore any bear marketer caught on the loose.

What bears (no pun intended) watching is what happens on the actual announcement (Wednesday, 1:00 pm EDT) and thereafter. If the slide continues, the Dow will soon enter correction territory again with the next stop a full blown bear market, which would signal the end of a nine-plus-year bull run.

For now, it's safe to say that the Dow won't be seeing much in the way of positive progress unless the Fed surprises and leaves rates unchanged, a very doubtful expectation.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
3/1/18 24,608.98 -420.22 -420.22
3/2/18 24,538.06 -70.92 -491.14
3/5/18 24,874.76 +336.70 -154.44
3/6/18 24,884.12 +9.36 -145.08
3/7/18 24,801.36 -82.76 -227.84
3/8/18 24,895.21 +93.85 -133.99
3/9/18 25,335.74 +440.53 +306.54
3/12/18 25,178.61 -157.13 +149.41
3/13/18 25,007.03, -171.58 -22.17
3/14/18 24,758.12 -248.91 -271.08
3/15/18 24,873.66 +115.54 -155.54
3/16/18 24,946.51 +72.85 -82.69
3/19/18 24,610.91 -335.60 -418.29

At the Close, Monday, March 19, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,610.91, -335.60 (-1.35%)
NASDAQ: 7,344.24, -137.74 (-1.84%)
S&P 500: 2,712.92, -39.09 (-1.42%)
NYSE Composite: 12,651.46, -132.93 (-1.04%)

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Markets Turn Ugly As Bond Yields Soar in Ground Hog Day Massacre

Even as January's non-farm payroll report painted a rosy employment picture, adding 200,000 jobs for the month, the 10-year note crested over the 2.80% level on Friday, sending stocks into as vicious tailspin in a mid-winter crash.

The nearly 666-point decline on the Dow was the sixth largest one-day point drop in market history, though in percentage terms was the mildest of the top ten, all of which have occurred in the 21st century.

The fact that all of the major point losses happened since 2000 is made obvious by the enormity of the index, still standing at more then 25,000, an epochal figure in market terms. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average first passed the 10,000 mark in 1999, amid the notorious dotcom boom, prior to the dotcom bust, which took a full three-and-a-half years to fully play out.

Friday's drop was the largest since a 634.76-point loss on August 8, 2011 which sent the blue chips down 5.55%, to 10,809.85. Noting the relative percentage puniness of the Ground Hog Day Massacre, it may be wise to expect larger point and percentage losses in the near to mid-range future (three months to one year).

While it may be simplistic to point to the gaudy valuations placed on equities in the current market dynamic, it is nonetheless a significant factor in the current shaky environment and as good a reason to sell out of stocks as any, though the other major catalyst - rising bond yields - provides a more granular perspective.

The long end of the Treasury yield curve was extended on Friday as the 30-year bond smashed through the psychological 3.00% barrier, signaling to long-term investors that the aging bull market in stocks (and bonds) may be coming to a quick conclusion.

Bull and bear markets do not begin nor end in vacuums, which is why this most recent pullback should be regarded as a change of tone in market functioning. Nothing gos on forever, and empirical data suggests that while stocks have enjoyed salad days for years, the general economy and the welfare of millions of Americans has been less than a full meal.

It's easy to look at macro data and conclude that all is well and central banks have the markets and global economies under control, but sometimes one needs to look around and actually see the mountains of debt, stock buybacks, and central bank meddling which have fueled the gigantic recovery and historic stock gains.

Money is undoubtably becoming tighter and the labor market - according to government figures - is straining at full employment, but wages gains have not nearly kept pace with either inflation or taxes for at least the past 15 years. A breaking point is coming, wherein multi-national corporate behemoths are going to have to sacrifice the massive salaries bestowed upon top executives in exchange for pay increases for Mr. and Mrs. America.

With the Federal Reserve ready to hike the federal funds rate another 25 basis points at their upcoming March FOMC rate policy meeting, the world's central bank seeks to create a buffer against an almost certain recession, one which they, by their own reckless actions, will have caused.

If stock declines continue through February, expect the Fed to pause on their quest to raise rates and unload debt at the same time. The outward absurdity of their position is dangerous to the welfare of not only business entities, but individuals and governments as well.

What may have been the most telling circumstance from Friday's demolition of all asset classes, gold and silver also took precipitous drops, action which harkens back to the tumultuous days of the fall of 2008, when precious metals were slammed along with stocks. Notably, it was the metals which recovered first, but under the current conditions of mad money mindlessness, the shiny stuff may be suppressed even further, simply because central banks don't appreciate competition for their various fake currencies by real money.

The era of easy money is ending.

Real assets will endure.

At the Close, Friday, February 2, 2018:
Dow: 25,520.96, -665.75 (-2.54%)
NASDAQ: 7,240.95, -144.92 (-1.96%)
S&P 500: 2,762.13, -59.85 (-2.12%)
NYSE Composite: 13,085.35, -296.62 (-2.22%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1095.75 (-4.12)
NASDAQ: -264.83 (-3.53%)
S&P 500: -110.74 (-3.85%)
NYSE Composite: -551.67 (-4.05%)

Friday, August 11, 2017

Stocks Extend Slide Amid Noth Korea, US Bombast, But It's Not Serious

Just in case there needs to be an excuse to sell overpriced stocks, there's always North Korea and the nit-wit leader Kim Jong-un.

A bone fide nutjob, the second child of Kim Jong-il, 33-year-old Jong-un has, in his brief stint as self-appointed supreme leader of North Korea, managed to elevate himself and his gulag of a nation onto the global stage and capture the spotlight with various treats, missile launches, nuclear ambitions and plenty of help from international media seeking sensationalism with which to scare an unsuspecting public.

With bombastic President Trump entering the fray earlier this year, Jong-un has found the perfect Dean Martin straight man for his Jerry Lewis-like antics. A master of the tweet-storm, Trump takes Jong-un seriously, which helps amp up the rhetoric with bold statements and unveiled threats in response to Jong-un's madness. The two could make a fortune on the stages of Las Vegas, if only the State Department would allow Jong-un entry to the US mainland.

What the international war of words has to do with stocks is roughly nothing. Until actual bombs start raining down, the prattling between the leaders of the United States and North Korea is more about television and radio ratings than the prices of Apple, Alphabet, or Alcoa.

However, as stated at the top of this missive, Wall Street specialists are taking the opportunity to dump out of high-flying stocks with near-reckless abandon, sending the major indices to their biggest losses in six months on Thursday, extending the minor losses from Wednesday into something worth noticing.

The selling has also not been limited to just US stocks. As the talk has become more bellicose, the drops on major foreign markets in Europe, Asia, and the Americas have been extended. As of Friday morning in the US, most of Asia and Europe are suffering losses of between one and two percent, though the Nikkei 225 is bucking the trend, down only slightly, nearly flat on the day.

That brings up an interesting topic: if Japan's major market isn't taking this "international nuclear stand-off" with the requisite seriousness, should anybody else?

Probably not, but, this is as good a time as any to take profits. The congress and the president are pretty much on vacation until after Labor Day, but, when they get back to pretending they're doing something constructive, they'll be tackling the ticklish issues of the debt ceiling (along with the attendant threats of shutting down the government - yeah!) and coming up with something resembling a federal budget.

On the latter, hashing out a budget between the Trump administration and the overwhelmingly free-spending congress ought to be some serious comedy. Trump would love to balance the federal budget, but congress intends to drown the nation in even more debt. In case anybody is still keeping score, the federal debt burden stands at close to $20 billion, but, according to the US Debt Clock, it's been stuck there for a few months due to extraordinary measures taken by Treasury and some unforeseen savings on the administration's end.

The congress is not happy about this and will make sure to pile up more debt in the months ahead, making the budget process the go-to, must see entertainment venue for the fall TV season.

So, unless the bottom falls out of the market on Friday, August 11, this is nothing more than profit-taking by people who actually know what they're doing and don't respond in knee-jerk fashion to the pronouncements of madmen and the tweets of presidents.

Meantime, the recent news frame has been good for bonds, gold and silver, all of which have had three straight sessions of unimpeded gains. Gold is approaching $1300 an ounce, the 10-year note is yielding 2.21% and silver broke through $17 per ounce on Thursday. What is not working, still, is oil, which appears unable to pierce the $50/barrel level, which shouldn't be an issue. There remains a massive glut, oversupply, slack demand due to slow economic growth globally and no pricing power anywhere from Riyadh to Russia. Oil should be less than $40 per barrel, though resistance is great, led by the global energy cartel with the help from central bankers who simply cannot stomach any more deflation in anything.

With that, stocks in the US are setting up for another scary open to the downside, but it's probably nothing more than a bump in the road. The real action is still a month away, and even then, the Fed has Wall Street's back. Unless something really serious occurs, there's likely not to be any major turn in the stock markets, though the same cannot be assumed about commodities, bonds, precious metals, or even crypto-currencies like Bitcoin.

At the Close, 8/10/17:
Dow: 21,844.01, -204.69 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.87, -135.46 (-2.13%)
S&P 500: 2,438.21, -35.81 (-1.45%)
NYSE Composite: 11,771.60, -157.87 (-1.32%)

Monday, January 4, 2016

Can You Hear Me Now? MONEY DAILY Predictions Prove Prescient As Stocks Drop on First Trading Day of 2016

As 2015 drew to a close, Money Daily put forward a number of predictions for what 2016 would bring as pertaining to economies and financial markets.

While one day's trading cannot be considered anything more than market "noise," the historic sell-off of January 4 - the first trading day of the new year - proved to be the worst performance to start a year since 2008, and one of the top ten worst starts to a year in market history.

While stocks were down large in the US, they were worse in Asia and Europe. The Shanghai Composite was shaved by 6.9%, Japan's Nikkei tumbled nearly 600 points, a loss of 3.06%.

Germany's DAX was the hardest hit of Europe's majors, losing 4.28%. England's FTSE 100 fell 2.39; France's CAC-40 was down 2.47%.

In the US, most of the carnage was done by midday. Stocks drifted into the closing hour, and were boosted substantially off their lows by a face-ripping, short-covering rally in the last half hour of trading.

It was an unnerving beginning to a year which promises much in the way of surprises with limited upside for stocks, which have been and continue to be wildly overvalued.

Some of the bigger names were high on the list of losers. Netflix (NFLX) fell 3.86%; Alphabet (Google, GOOG) dropped 2.25%; Amazon was the biggest of the tech wrecks, dropping 38.90 points, a 5.76% loss.

WTI crude oil first rose, but came back to earth and was down for the day, finishing around 36.80 on the day.

S&P 500: 2,012.66, -31.28 (1.53%)
Dow: 17,148.94, -276.09 (1.58%)
NASDAQ: 4,903.09, -104.32 (2.08%)