Not much changed overnight, and that was reflected in the performance of stock prices globally. The same themes continue popping up, causing confusion and derision among investors. The shaky situation in Europe, complete with protests and riots in England and Germany, the continued weak outlook for jobs in America and growth slowing to a standstill almost worldwide has fomented a rolling, four-week-long slide that has brought many of the national and sub-national indices close to bear territory.
In fact, adding in today's losses, the NASDAQ is on the precipice of becoming more than a correction, down 531 points since its April 29 highs, has lost 18.48%, only 1.52% from becoming a technical bear market.
The other averages are not quite so close. The Dow needs to lose roughly another 450 points before its losses from recent highs reach the dreaded 20% level, though the S&P 500 is closing ground, down 17.60%. Another drop of 35 points would not only send the highly-watched index into bear territory but underneath the psychologically important 1100 level.
After Asian markets tumbled and Europe continued the assault on investments, things looked dicey for US stocks prior to the opening, with futures sporting large downsides. After an initial thrust into the abyss, however, all the major US indices rebounded to post healthy gains by mid-morning.
But they were not to last. By 11:00 am EDT, most of the gains were wiped out and by 1:00 pm, the slide lower had resumed in earnest. Stocks eventually hit their low points of the day just minutes before the closing bell, a terrifying omen for Monday's trading.
Thus, trading ended badly, with major indices slumping for their fourth consecutive week.
Dow 10,817.65, -172.93 (1.57%)
NASDAQ 2,341.84, -38.59 (1.62%)
S&P 500 1,123.53, -17.12 (1.50%)
NYSE Composite 6,970.10, -109.31 (1.54%)
Declining issues beat back advancers, 4799-1807. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled just five (5), with 316 new lows. On the NYSE, there were only seven (7) new highs, but 279 new lows, putting the combined total at 12 new highs to 595 new lows. Citing those figures, anyone who believes this correction to have bottomed needs to seek professional help, preferably from any astute market watcher.
Volume was brisk, though not quite at yesterday's levels, another signal that the losses are only gathering momentum. The likelihood of all the indices falling into bear territory by Labor Day - ten trading sessions from now - is very high, almost a certainty, unless some major economic data changes the future outlook, which has turned from scarcely positive to undeniably negative over the past four weeks.
NASDAQ Volume 2,357,600,000
NYSE Volume 6,004,142,000
A slew of forecasters have cut their outlooks for GDP, including Moody's, which cut its forecast to 2%, and JP Morgan, who sees 4th quarter GDP at 1%, down from their previous 2.5% call and 1st quarter 2012 at 0.5%, down from 1.5% in their earlier outlook.
Citigroup cut its total 2011 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7% and lowered its projection for next year to 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent, according to a note to clients dated yesterday.
Of course, these analysts are known to be overly and overtly optimistic, so their tea leaves and crystal balls may not be the best estimates out there. Chances of a recession are being priced into stacks at about 60%.
Amid the carnage, oil prices, which had briefly dipped below $80/barrel early in the morning, went quickly positive when US markets opened, but closed the day with a 12 cent loss, at $82.26.
Once again, the big winners were precious metals, with gold cruising to another record high, up $26.60, at $1851.50 per ounce. Overnight, the intraday high topped out at $1878.90. The best gainer of the day, and also so far this year, was silver, which saw heavy buying, up $2.16 (a move of more than 5%), to $42.80, its highest price since May 3rd, when CME was putting on a series of six margin hikes to cool the shiny metal down.
Now, with the lid off and resistance broken, silver should continue to climb forward. Some strategists see it hitting the $44-46 range before labor day, which, considering today's drive, looks very possible.
One last note before the weekend. The Got Gold Report's Gene Arensberg updates his charts and concludes that silver is "very close to a short-murdering rocket launch again."
Friday, August 19, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Here We Go Again: Europe, US Equity Markets Smashed
Like a pop band performing an encore number, the wild, swing days of last week are here with us again, doing a sophisticated limbo beneath the various 200-day moving averages. The continent formerly known as Europe slowly is sinking into a combination of economic atrophy and social anarchy while the country previously preferred to as the greatest democracy ever invented, the USA, shifts and contorts like a belly dancer with stomach cramps and gas.
One could take their pick today from a generous selection of tawdry economic news and data, beginning with the story reported by Zero Hedge that an unnamed European bank (speculation is that its either Societe General or an Italian or Austrian bank) borrowed $500 million from the ECB's emergency lending window at a 1.1% rate.
That got the entertainment kicked off in Europe with a notable bang, as the major bourses in the land of socialism held blood-letting sessions with the national indices down between 4 and 6%, Germany's DAX leading the way lower with a 5.82% decline.
By the time markets opened in New York, futures were careening headlong into the abyss after initial unemployment claims were reported at 408,000 in the most recent reporting period and July CPI came in with a whopping 0.5% rise - a 6% annualized inflation rate - which took almost everybody - except possibly President Obama, who was preparing for a two-week stay at Martha's Vineyard - by surprise, especially after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told us all that inflationary pressures were "transitory" (he also confided to Representative and presidential candidate Ron Paul that gold was not money... such a witty fellow).
Were that not enough for the market to digest, a couple more tasty morsels were delivered just a half hour into the trading session. Existing home sales for July were reported at an annualized rate of 4.67 million, after a 4.84 million read last month, but the real hot pepper came from the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index, which, after posting a tepid 3.2 reading in July, came in - on expectations of a 1.0 reading - at... wait for it... minus 30.7 (yes, -30.7), the lowest number in 2 1/2 years and now on scale with New York's Empire Index which last week posted an equally disturbing negative read of -7.7 on Monday.
Naturally, nobody gave a whit about the New York number, but the Philly fiasco was just too magnificent to ignore. Stocks, already down significantly, swiftly dove further, with the Dow Jones Industrials losing 170 points in the ten minutes following the double dose of decrepitude.
The sudden collapse of index prices was stunning to view, though the gaping maws of CNBC's on-air personalities provided dark comic relief. Stocks drifted for the rest of the day, but managed to stage a last-ditch rally with just ten minutes left in the session, boosting the Dow about 100 points into the close, just in time for options expiry on Friday.
Dow 10,990.58, -419.63 (3.68%)
NASDAQ 2,380.43, -131.05 (5.22%)
S&P 500 1,140.65, -53.24 (4.46%)
NYSE Composite 7,079.41, -339.53 (4.58%)
Declining issues decimated advancers, 6094-634, a nearly 10:1 ratio. New lows overpowered new highs on the NASDAQ, 253-2 (yes, two, as in 2 new 52-week highs), while on the NYSE there were also just two (2) new highs, against 208 new lows. The combined figure of 4 new highs and 461 new lows verifies our repeated suggestion that the highs-lows indicator is as reliable a simple instrument as is available and is currently suggesting that the now-confirmed market correction will shortly morph into a a full blown bear market as Europe and the United State plunge into the fearsome double-dip recession, if not already there.
Volume, despite the ridiculous assumptions made throughout the day by CNBC's dapper Bob Pisani (I really do watch too much TV) that today's volume was not significant, was, in fact, quite strong, and with good reason, as banks in Europe and the US took the brunt of the selloff. European banks were hardest hit, with losses between 6 and 11% on the day.
NASDAQ Volume 2,785,477,500
NYSE Volume 7,141,215,000
Meanwhile, the oil crazies were unloading their gooey stuff as quickly as possible, sending WTI futures down nearly six percent, dropping $5.20, to $82.38.
There were bright spots, and those were in precious metals. Gold rocketed $28.20 to another record price of $1,822.00, while silver tried desperately to keep pace, gaining 38 cents, to $40.69.
As for Friday, one should expect a little more of the same, though it is worth noting that these wickedly manipulated markets have a penchant for turning on a dime, as they did last week. Eventually, however, this all ends in tears, as the Euro will be soon dispatched to currency hell, where it belongs, taking the world economy into a place nobody wants to be.
Smoke 'em if you got 'em and live it up while you can. By Christmas, this could be really, really, really, really, really, and I do mean really, ugly.
One could take their pick today from a generous selection of tawdry economic news and data, beginning with the story reported by Zero Hedge that an unnamed European bank (speculation is that its either Societe General or an Italian or Austrian bank) borrowed $500 million from the ECB's emergency lending window at a 1.1% rate.
That got the entertainment kicked off in Europe with a notable bang, as the major bourses in the land of socialism held blood-letting sessions with the national indices down between 4 and 6%, Germany's DAX leading the way lower with a 5.82% decline.
By the time markets opened in New York, futures were careening headlong into the abyss after initial unemployment claims were reported at 408,000 in the most recent reporting period and July CPI came in with a whopping 0.5% rise - a 6% annualized inflation rate - which took almost everybody - except possibly President Obama, who was preparing for a two-week stay at Martha's Vineyard - by surprise, especially after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told us all that inflationary pressures were "transitory" (he also confided to Representative and presidential candidate Ron Paul that gold was not money... such a witty fellow).
Were that not enough for the market to digest, a couple more tasty morsels were delivered just a half hour into the trading session. Existing home sales for July were reported at an annualized rate of 4.67 million, after a 4.84 million read last month, but the real hot pepper came from the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index, which, after posting a tepid 3.2 reading in July, came in - on expectations of a 1.0 reading - at... wait for it... minus 30.7 (yes, -30.7), the lowest number in 2 1/2 years and now on scale with New York's Empire Index which last week posted an equally disturbing negative read of -7.7 on Monday.
Naturally, nobody gave a whit about the New York number, but the Philly fiasco was just too magnificent to ignore. Stocks, already down significantly, swiftly dove further, with the Dow Jones Industrials losing 170 points in the ten minutes following the double dose of decrepitude.
The sudden collapse of index prices was stunning to view, though the gaping maws of CNBC's on-air personalities provided dark comic relief. Stocks drifted for the rest of the day, but managed to stage a last-ditch rally with just ten minutes left in the session, boosting the Dow about 100 points into the close, just in time for options expiry on Friday.
Dow 10,990.58, -419.63 (3.68%)
NASDAQ 2,380.43, -131.05 (5.22%)
S&P 500 1,140.65, -53.24 (4.46%)
NYSE Composite 7,079.41, -339.53 (4.58%)
Declining issues decimated advancers, 6094-634, a nearly 10:1 ratio. New lows overpowered new highs on the NASDAQ, 253-2 (yes, two, as in 2 new 52-week highs), while on the NYSE there were also just two (2) new highs, against 208 new lows. The combined figure of 4 new highs and 461 new lows verifies our repeated suggestion that the highs-lows indicator is as reliable a simple instrument as is available and is currently suggesting that the now-confirmed market correction will shortly morph into a a full blown bear market as Europe and the United State plunge into the fearsome double-dip recession, if not already there.
Volume, despite the ridiculous assumptions made throughout the day by CNBC's dapper Bob Pisani (I really do watch too much TV) that today's volume was not significant, was, in fact, quite strong, and with good reason, as banks in Europe and the US took the brunt of the selloff. European banks were hardest hit, with losses between 6 and 11% on the day.
NASDAQ Volume 2,785,477,500
NYSE Volume 7,141,215,000
Meanwhile, the oil crazies were unloading their gooey stuff as quickly as possible, sending WTI futures down nearly six percent, dropping $5.20, to $82.38.
There were bright spots, and those were in precious metals. Gold rocketed $28.20 to another record price of $1,822.00, while silver tried desperately to keep pace, gaining 38 cents, to $40.69.
As for Friday, one should expect a little more of the same, though it is worth noting that these wickedly manipulated markets have a penchant for turning on a dime, as they did last week. Eventually, however, this all ends in tears, as the Euro will be soon dispatched to currency hell, where it belongs, taking the world economy into a place nobody wants to be.
Smoke 'em if you got 'em and live it up while you can. By Christmas, this could be really, really, really, really, really, and I do mean really, ugly.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Market is Sick, Worn-out and Overvalued
One look at the general direction of trading today gives the impression that this is a market running completely on fumes, exhausted from last week's frenzied action and unsure about the immediate future.
Despite three of the four major averages finishing in the green, today's high open and low close are classic technical signals of a market in despair. The volume has subsided, but the VIX is still very high, over 30, and the complacency of trading today was something of a surprise, considering the still-shaky economic conditions in both the US and Europe, though it does seem that outside of the usual gang of day-traders and algo followers most of the retail investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude.
To that point, it was reported today by the ICI (Investment Company Institute) that mutual fund outflows totaled $40 billion in the past week. From the report, "Investors pulled a net $40.3 billion out of those funds in the week ended Aug. 10, the largest weekly withdrawal since early October 2008, soon after the collapse of Lehman Brothers."
Equity funds were the biggest losers, as investors shed $30 billion worth of exposure to common stocks.
Adding to the negatives was the July PPI number, at a modest 0.2% increase, though core PPI, which excludes energy and food, was up 0.4%, for an annual run rate of nearly 5 percent on a wholesale level. While oil and gas prices haven't exactly come down to reasonable levels, food prices have stabilized, though the core reading shows inflation showing up in other areas.
Bonds edged higher, with the 10-year dropping six basis points to a yield of 2.16% and the 30-year shedding 9 bips, to yield 3.56%. Investors are still looking to safety over risk, and that was evident today in Treasuries and precious metals.
This little pause in the action will last until the next crisis scenario erupts - about a week or two, maybe - and then equity markets will retest the lows set in place last week. From a technical standpoint, a retest of recent lows is almost always warranted before a move higher, so, down we must go in short order.
Dow 11,410.21, +4.28 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,511.48, -11.97 (0.47%)
S&P 500 1,193.88, +1.12 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite 7,418.94, +24.45 (0.33%)
Advancers led decliners on the day, though the NASDAQ saw more losers than winners. Overall, the gainers were 3624, to 2909 on the downside. New highs numbered only eight (8), with 58 new lows. The NYSE was nearly evenly split, with 13 new highs and 14 new lows. The combined total of 21 new highs and 72 new lows reinforces the indication for stocks to eventually recede.
Volume was back to moribund levels, as investors have headed for the hills.
NASDAQ Volume 1,919,593,000
NYSE Volume 4,351,417,000
WTI crude oil priced 93 cents higher, at $87.58, despite a government report that showed a significant surplus of the slimy stuff in the most recent week. Gold stopped at another new record of $1,793.80 per ounce, up $8.80 on the day and silver went happily along, picking up 53 cents, to $40.35 the ounce.
Despite three of the four major averages finishing in the green, today's high open and low close are classic technical signals of a market in despair. The volume has subsided, but the VIX is still very high, over 30, and the complacency of trading today was something of a surprise, considering the still-shaky economic conditions in both the US and Europe, though it does seem that outside of the usual gang of day-traders and algo followers most of the retail investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude.
To that point, it was reported today by the ICI (Investment Company Institute) that mutual fund outflows totaled $40 billion in the past week. From the report, "Investors pulled a net $40.3 billion out of those funds in the week ended Aug. 10, the largest weekly withdrawal since early October 2008, soon after the collapse of Lehman Brothers."
Equity funds were the biggest losers, as investors shed $30 billion worth of exposure to common stocks.
Adding to the negatives was the July PPI number, at a modest 0.2% increase, though core PPI, which excludes energy and food, was up 0.4%, for an annual run rate of nearly 5 percent on a wholesale level. While oil and gas prices haven't exactly come down to reasonable levels, food prices have stabilized, though the core reading shows inflation showing up in other areas.
Bonds edged higher, with the 10-year dropping six basis points to a yield of 2.16% and the 30-year shedding 9 bips, to yield 3.56%. Investors are still looking to safety over risk, and that was evident today in Treasuries and precious metals.
This little pause in the action will last until the next crisis scenario erupts - about a week or two, maybe - and then equity markets will retest the lows set in place last week. From a technical standpoint, a retest of recent lows is almost always warranted before a move higher, so, down we must go in short order.
Dow 11,410.21, +4.28 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,511.48, -11.97 (0.47%)
S&P 500 1,193.88, +1.12 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite 7,418.94, +24.45 (0.33%)
Advancers led decliners on the day, though the NASDAQ saw more losers than winners. Overall, the gainers were 3624, to 2909 on the downside. New highs numbered only eight (8), with 58 new lows. The NYSE was nearly evenly split, with 13 new highs and 14 new lows. The combined total of 21 new highs and 72 new lows reinforces the indication for stocks to eventually recede.
Volume was back to moribund levels, as investors have headed for the hills.
NASDAQ Volume 1,919,593,000
NYSE Volume 4,351,417,000
WTI crude oil priced 93 cents higher, at $87.58, despite a government report that showed a significant surplus of the slimy stuff in the most recent week. Gold stopped at another new record of $1,793.80 per ounce, up $8.80 on the day and silver went happily along, picking up 53 cents, to $40.35 the ounce.
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