Peace - at least for the present - in the Middle East has finally been achieved, after more than three months of conflict, ceasefire, and back-and-forth between Iran and the United States.
Headline worshippers will gush endlessly about the brilliance of President Trump's strategies to topple Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, there will be no mention of the 2009 Brookings Institution white paper, "Which Path to Persia", in which most of the options for U.S. dealings with Iran were laid out years ago.
Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran is a product of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. The essays were written by Saban Center scholars Daniel L. Byman, Martin Indyk, Suzanne Maloney, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Kenneth M. Pollack, and Bruce Riedel. Kenneth Pollack also served as the overall editor.
The entire 170-page document can be downloaded here [PDF], no strings attached.
Iran has been a focus of U.S. intelligence for many years. The CIA didn't overthrow the popularly-elected leader of Iran in 1953 and install the puppet leader, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, because they didn't have anything better to do. The 1953 coup in Iran was a significant event where the United States and the United Kingdom orchestrated a coup d'état that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi as the leader of Iran. Mosaddegh was placed under house arrest for the remainder of his life.
Always a regional power that the U.S. viewed as a deterrent bulwark opposed to British, U.S. and Israeli interests in the region. The many years and decades of influence and intervention is not likely to cease with Sunday's forecast signing of a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) between the U.S. and Iran. At the very least, it stops most of the militarism in the region and would ostensibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. It will serve as a path forward for the global economy, which was greatly threatened by the cessation of oil and other key commodity traffic through the Persian Gulf.
As Sunday morning unfolds to Sunday afternoon, both the White House and Iranian officials have remained mum on deal progress, even as Israel throws a spanner by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier today. Since today is Trump's 80th birthday, expect the White House to follow through, though what arrives as narrative may not stand up to a reality check in coming days. The ongoing farce of peace vs. war may come to some kind of halt on Sunday or continue along with yet another unkept promise.
Don't stay glued to FOX or any of the other mainstream media. Get out and enjoy a late Spring day. Whatever the people in "power" will do, they will do. It's likely to have a much bigger impact of Wall Street than in the lives of ordinary citizens, though, if real, could keep the media wheels spinning until the midterms, which, by some accounts, is all that matters inside the Beltway.
If some kind of agreement with Iran isn't undermined by Israel - always a real threat to peace - the economic benefits could prove to be profound, with lower gas prics for U.S. drivers, stability in emerging markets and global trade, and a return to pre-war conditions favorable to growth and prosperity. There might be a chance that President Trump's on-and-off rhetoric and his inner desire to make this year's Independence Day (July 4) celebration one worthy of 250-years of the U.S. republic. Consumer sentiment and national pride can go a long way toward improving conditions for all.
We shall see...
Stocks
Overall, stocks dropped to their lowest levels in a month on Tuesday and recovered on Thursday, extending the rally into Friday's session, though there was less-than-enthusiastic support for the latest messaging that peace in the Middle East was imminent, leaving markets in a weekend conundrum with some kind of resolution expected before markets reopen Monday. Some indication of what may develop for equities on Monday may come from precious metals, which reopen trading on Sunday at 6:00 pm ET, or bitcoin, which trades continuously.
If a deal is struck and announced by te White House as promised, the resultant rally in stocks should exceed the opposite drop in the price of crude oil. Estimates, based on a successful "deal" with language sufficient to ensure follow-through, are for stocks to rise more than two percent through midweek, with cruide oil losing some four to eight dollars per barrel, into a range of $75-80.
On the week, the NYSE Composite (+339.29, +1.46%) and Dow Transports (+683.16, +3.12%) outpaced the three majors, with the NASDAQ the weak horse, up just 0.31% over the past five sessions.
The week ahead features only a few companies reporting first quarter results.
Monday: (before open) Canopy Growth (CGC); (after close) Dave & Buster's (PLAY)
Tuesday: (before open) Wiley (WLY); (after close) LazyBoy (LZB)
Wednesday: (before open) Progressive Insurance (PGR), Jabil Electronics (JBL), Carmax (KMX)
Thursday: (before open) Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KRO)
The big event for the week ahead will be the two-day FOMC meeting, Tuesday and Wednesday, this being the first under newly-appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Of course, that would take a back seat to any delay in the "peace plan" if not announced Sunday.
Monday offers the NY Fed Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production metrics. Tuesday, monthly building permits and housing starts for May are released prior to the market open. May retail sales come in Wednesday morning, with the Fed's policy statement following at 2:00 pm ET. Thursday gets the usual initial and continuing claims data from the Labor Department and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.69 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.75 |
| 05/15/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.76 | 3.77 | 3.82 |
| 05/22/2026 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.78 | 3.79 | 3.86 |
| 05/29/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.78 | 3.78 | 3.79 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 3.78 | 3.81 | 3.88 |
| 06/12/2026 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.78 | 3.79 | 3.82 | 3.86 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2026 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 4.02 | 4.19 | 4.38 | 4.93 | 4.95 |
| 05/15/2026 | 4.09 | 4.14 | 4.26 | 4.43 | 4.59 | 5.14 | 5.12 |
| 05/22/2026 | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.27 | 4.41 | 4.56 | 5.06 | 5.07 |
| 05/29/2026 | 3.98 | 4.06 | 4.13 | 4.27 | 4.45 | 4.98 | 4.99 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4.17 | 4.22 | 4.29 | 4.41 | 4.55 | 5.03 | 5.01 |
| 06/12/2026 | 4.09 | 4.12 | 4.21 | 4.34 | 4.48 | 4.98 | 4.97 |
Treasury yields came off recent highs, but hardly in a convincing manner. The dual lines in the sand - 5.00% for 30-year bonds and $4.50 for 10-year notes were taken out as the peace prospects made their rounds, but debt buyers were apprehensive about going long overall. Spreads continue to remain at high levels across the entire curve, while 2s-10s continue to be restrained.
The treasury curve is orderly overall, though much of its future depends on what comes out of the Fed's FOMC meeting in the week ahead. Keven Warsh was appointed by President Trump to ensure lower rates and easier money, but re-ignition of inflation lately has tamped down expectations and the Fed may indeed signal rate hikes ahead at new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's initial press conference. Bond traders will be on high alert for any tip-offs in either the formal statement or spoken at the presser.
For now, it's a wait-and-see condition.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
Oil/Gas
WTI crude futures closed out the week at $84.88 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, down sharply from the prior Friday reading of $90.26, in anticipation of some kind of announcement that a deal has been struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. As of Sunday morning, the White House has yet to make a declaration, though one is expected soon.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.11 last week and $4.03 this week, another in a four to five week move lower, with prospects for prices to retrat by as much as another 50-60 cents by mid-summer are enticing.
Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control. The United States has been purging its strategic oil reserve - the world’s largest emergency crude oil stockpile — and is currently on track to hit its lowest level since the early 1980s. Recent data shows 357.1 million barrels in the week ending May 29, 2026, nearly half of its authorized 714 million barrel capacity and close to the 346.8 million barrel low reached in July 2023.
About eight million barrels were taken last week, following earlier weekly draws of 9–10 million barrels. Total U.S. crude inventories (commercial + SPR) have fallen to 709.8 million barrels, down from 878 million in early April. It has gotten to a point at which oil executives feared inventories were falling to unsustainable levels and further drawdowns could threaten to snd prices spiraling higher. While oil execs are usually in fovar of higher prices for their products, the ongoing situation became precarious with flows shut off completely.
Prices in key states:
California (leader): $5.72 (-0.16)
Washington: $5.51 (-0.11)
Oklahoma: $3.50 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.65 (-0.07)
Florida: $3.80 (+0.05)
Illinois: $4.34 (-0.20)
Pennsylvania: $4.20 (-0.12)
New York: $4.34 (-0.09)
Maryland: $3.81 (-0.15)
Michigan: $4.17 (+0.04)
Texas (lowest): $3.47 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.72 (-0.06)
On Sunday, June 14th, there are twenty-seven (27) states with average prices below $4.00, with 21 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.58) and Alaska ($5.14), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past four weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.47-3.80) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices averaging from $3.71 to $3.90.
Bitcoin
This week: $64,048.96
Last week: $61,809.72
2 weeks ago: $73,835.71
6 months ago: $90,207.59
One year ago: $105,312.90
Five years ago: $35,525.93
Bit of a rebound this week off multi-year lows. Bitcoin hasn't cleared any of the hurdles that would convince investors that the deep slide off the highs from mid-July through mid-October of last year has run its course. With prices depressed since February of this year, below $82,000 at best, the path forward for bitcoin appears to be a continuation of the lowered price structure. The current chart configuration resembles that of late 2021 through all of 2022 and into summer of 2023, when prices collapsed off highs above $64,000 down to lows in the teens.
Bitcoin's fate, largely in the hands of "whales" and institutions like Strategy (MSTR), holding more than 90% of all bitcoin mined. Faith in crypto as an alternative to fiat currencies has faded badly and may become mored in a low price regime for what could turn into years.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 62.03; last week: 63.80
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver and gold hit some serious bottoms during the week, but roused to a positive lose on Friday as the rumors of peace with Iran began to circulate. It's not as if opening up the Strait of Hormuz has anything at all with precious metals, the spreading exuberance over ending the conflict in the Middle East seems ot be popping up in unusual places. Perhaps it is more about slowing inflation tied to a more robust flow of oil that made the metals move, but trading from Tuesday through Friday suggested that lows were hunted, found, and satisfied short sellers sufficiently.
Precious metals remain the ultimate safe haven for obvious reasons, though they've been under pressure recently and especially during the Iran conflict, moving lower in contradiction to usual patterns. Gold has, for centuries, been sought as protection during unsure periods, but these days seems to be fractious within fractured markets operating at the derivative level in the West and more in a physical manner in the East. The dichotomy will continue indefinitely, though physical markets are always and everywhere preferred by serious buyers of not just precious metals, but commodities of all sorts. Futures are good enough insurance for food stocks and other commodities which have seasonal variation, but sometimes are seriously out of touch when it comes to more durable things.
One wouldn't go looking for a car based on future prices? Or buy a house based on what it may be worth a few months or years from the present date, would one?
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 75.00 | 84.00 | 79.97 | 80.25 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 74.95 | 88.97 | 80.49 | 79.07 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4340.00 | 4536.36 | 4445.51 | 4437.93 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4392.32 | 4578.29 | 4430.84 | 4421.52 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost a small amount of ground this week, dropping to $79.95 on June 14, a loss of 33 cents per troy ounce, from the June 7 price of $80.28.
WEEKEND WRAP
"Peace" has different meanings to different groups of people. Perhaps the appropriate definition is contained in this anonymous, brilliant quote: "Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."
That may be what we have for now. How long it lasts is a function of policy and the will to power of various players in the world of geo-politics. Often attributed as Albert Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - is also applicable. The insanity of waging war will persist, no matter how long it takes the opposing sides to reload.
Enjoy it while/if you can.
At the Close, Friday, June 12, 2026:
Dow: 51,202.26, +353.51 (+0.70%)
NASDAQ: 25,888.84, +79.18 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 7,431.46, +37.16 (+0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 23,595.79, +182.90 (+0.78%)
For the Week:
Dow: +355.48 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: +179.41 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: +47.72 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: +339.29 (+1.46%)
Dow Transports: +683.16 (+3.12%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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