Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Are Penny Stocks Key to the Investment Future?

It's well known that small businesses produce the bulk of new jobs in America, year in and year out, but that thesis may be more prescient in a "muddle through" or stagnant economy, such as the one that has prevailed the past three to five years. While the general stock market has seen significant gains since the '08-09 meltdown, smaller companies, despite lack of adequate access to capital for many, have been flourishing.

Most big, corporate stock advisors or brokers will tell you that small caps are the way to go if you're looking for growth, but only nimble advisors outside the mainstream with great research, like Timothy Sykes, can offer you the next top penny stock.

Penny stocks come in all manner of varieties, from small restaurant chain concepts to high-tech startups to the popular "green" companies which don't generally get the press or the credit for their risk-taking mindset. Finding these companies requires a lot of time and research, something the average home investor doesn't have and that's the exact reason why scouring the web for information on particular companies may not be the best approach.

In addition to some of these companies having little time nor money to spend on press releases and public relations, by the time big breakthroughs occur, it's often too late, the stock having already made a significant move.

That is why it's useful to follow Sykes and maybe a few other experts in the penny stock universe, as gains on some of these top picks have produced extraordinary gains in a relatively short period of time.

Small business is the driver of growth in America, and penny stocks are the instrument by which the average investor can keep pace or exceed the ultra-insiders of Wall Street. Think about it. Wouldn't it be better to be in on the ground floor of a little-known company with a load of upside, than a run-of-the-mill S&P 500 company whose every move is telegraphed over CNBC and more than likely previously dished out to the big brokerages? Why pin one's hopes on the big Wall Street-connected companies, many of which are responsible for the high unemployment and tight banking policies that have slowed US productivity to a crawl, when you can invest in some of the most exciting, albeit risky, ventures on the planet.

If you're looking for an edge and don't mind high risk, Timothy Sykes and his website are probably worth the time to investigate.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Euro Finance Ministers Meeting Cancelled; US Stocks Take a Dive

Anybody with half a brain and even a cursory understanding of Europe's debt crisis (or, circus) could have and should have seen this coming a mile away: the meeting of European finance ministers, scheduled for Wednesday, has been cancelled. While the general summit of Euro zone nation leaders will still occur, as planned, the finance minister meeting was supposed to issue some kind of document or plan outlining the strategy of saving Greece and other nations from defaulting.

The 27 member ecofin meeting was supposed to have dealt with the recapitalization of many of Europe's largest banks, most of which have been decimated by ongoing debt issues in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. While this particular piece of the Euro puzzle has temporarily been put on hold, the general summit of Eurozone leaders will combine the bank issues with two other important elements: how to deal with the losses incurred by banks which loaned to Greece (the bond "haircut") and how large (and leveraged) the bailout EFSF fund will be.

As has been the case in the recent past, US stocks took a major hit on news that Europe was still inching toward a comprehensive solution. Expert opinion now believes that the Euro situation will take months and probably years to be worked out; any proposed solutions will have to go through a rigorous process of scrutiny and ratification by member nations. In the meantime, Europe is sinking faster and faster into recession and citizens are rightfully angered over the inability of leaders to come to any kind of meaningful consensus on the various great problems.

If this seems like deja vu all over again, it's because the Europeans are master foot-draggers, routinely missing deadlines and making delays - for any manner of reasons - on important, pressing issues. This is just more of the same, and the game is getting very old, very quickly.

Here in the US, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city and 10-city composite readings for August came in below their year-ago levels by 3.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, though both indices edged up slightly over July, posting a gain of 0.2%. In essence, what the Case-Shiller survey found was that while home prices are still falling, year-over-year, they are not falling as quickly, though that's of little comfort to the millions of homeowners whose homes are worth well less than what they paid for them, a condition known as being underwater.

At 10:00 am EDT, the Conference Board released its latest consumer confidence reading, finding that confidence was at a level not seen since the depths of the 2008-09 recession, at 39.8. Also, only 9.1% of respondents are expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months, a depressing figure considering that the US is supposed to be a good 12-18 months into recovery.

Stock traders sense that things are not going well, despite the markets in October having one of their best months of the year. Sooner or later the truth will set everyone free.

Dow 11,706.62 207.00 (1.74%)
NASDAQ 2,638.42 61.02 (2.26%)
S&P 500 1,229.05 25.14 (2.00%)
NYSE Compos 7,400.82 146.81 (1.95%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,810,687,875.00
NYSE Volume 4,406,436,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1024-4602
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 67-35
WTI crude oil: 93.17, +1.90
Gold: 1,700.40, +48.10
Silver: 33.05, +1.41



Monday, October 24, 2011

Euro Rising Amid Escalating Debt Crisis; Gold Worth $11,000/Ounce?

There are now differing views over the ongoing European debt crisis, which made Monday a banner day for the pair trade of short US dollar/long US stocks.

The view widely held by Wall Street influencers is the one promoted by the well-compromised "news" organization, Reuters, a proxy for the Wall Street/Washington oligarchy currently under attack by the Occupy Wall Street and other, spawned protest movements. Reuters reports that there is growing confidence that the EU leaders will forge a broad agreement with which to deal with the Euro-zone's debt issues by Wednesday of this week. Such wishful thinking pushed the Euro to a six-week high against the dollar, sparking the rally in US equities on the cheaper - for now - US dollar.

Alternately, NPR, in the embedded radio clip below, headlined its story Agreement On Debt Crisis Eludes EU Leaders, citing differences in approach by the various leaders amid calls for austere cutbacks in Italy to stem its own set of problems.



Realistically, nobody has a very good handle on where this is all headed, though widespread agreement seems a long shot. Greece has needed two rounds of bailout money already, and the country has been forced to suffer through doubt, derision, protests, strikes and riots in recent days as the government agreed to severe austerity measures, cutbacks in services and layoffs to help the government avoid running out of money.

Some kind of European plan is supposed to be released to the public by Wednesday, so there's probably no reason for stocks or the Euro/Dollar trade to deviate much until then. Details of the plan have been hashed about, though nothing is for certain except that it will include bailout money for some of Europe's largest banks (called: recapitalization) and some funding and dispersal mechanisms for the EFSF, the newly-created sovereign debt fund that is supposed to provide much-needed liquidity to the Euro system. Of course, the Euro money machine is beginning to look a lot like another global Ponzi scheme, with indebted countries providing funding through various channels to even-worse indebted nations like Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Anyone with a view of history longer than his or her current lifespan might have a better idea of where the Greek crisis is headed and it is most certainly not a happy place. Usually, when governments spend or steal too much of their citizens' money, overtaxing and under-delivering on promises and services, it means the end of the reigning regime, either trough violent overthrow or peaceful negotiation, though the former, albeit it's bloody features, has been more successful through the pantheon of history in securing the absolute rights of individuals while removing parasitic forces of government from the inflicted nation.

In Greece, it appears that the rowdy protesters have slowly but steadily been gaining ground and, with the emergence of Occupy Wall Street and other such groups, populist movements seem to be spreading faster than government efforts to defame or derail the groups. One interesting development was Michael Moore's appearance on CNBC this morning.

While the interview was not a first for Moore on CNBC, the filmmaker and champion of the "little guy" was allowed on air for over 11 minutes, and made some strong points on the inequitable economic situation facing all but America's wealthiest people. The piece is well worth the viewing time, as Moore made his case to Carl Quintanilla, a reporter and anchor who might just have something of a conscience.



One other story of note on the day is James Turk's elegant arithmetic in making his case why gold should be $11,000 an ounce. (PS: at a 16:1 gold:silver ratio - the traditional ratio - that would make the current silver price of around $31 per ounce, seem even more ridiculous. Something along the lines of $687/ounce would be appropriate.

Dow 11,913.62, +104.83 (0.89%)
NASDAQ 2,699.44, +61.98 (2.35%)
S&P 500 1,254.19, +15.94 (1.29%)
NYSE Composite 7,547.63, +116.53 (1.57%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,988,391,000
NYSE Volume 4,291,371,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4660-1018
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 125-24
WTI crude oil: 91.27, +3.87
Gold: 1,652.30, +16.20
Silver: 31.64, +0.45