Super Committee Epic Fail; Ron Paul Weighs In; New Government in Spain; Last Days of Euro?

Despite rumors of some kind of "a new idea" from senator Max Baucus that the congressional super committee would reach some kind of deal - a rumor that boosted stocks from their midday lows - there appears to be no deal in the works before the Wednesday, November 23, deadline.

Americans should have expected no less from a congress that hasn't met the public's perception of actually doing their jobs in well over a decade, some say longer. After all, they only had three full months to reach agreement on a plan that would cut the budget deficit by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years, a paltry $120 billion per year.

The stranglehold by Republicans' refusing to authorize any kind of tax increase at all has boondoggled the entire effort, so that automatic cuts, mandated by the debt limit debate of the past summer, will take effect, though not until 2013, making cutting the budget deficit - by tax increases or program cuts - an election year issue of grandiose magnitude.

Congress' inability to get anything done caused stocks to sell off sharply, with the deadline just two days off and prospects severely limited.

Presidential candidate Ron Paul suggested that congress and the president take a few steps back and adopt the same budget that passed in 2004, on the premise that 2012 expected federal revenue ($2.3 trillion) roughly matches the budget from eight years ago. Paul's idea is brilliant in its simplicity, though probably a non-starter for most of the brain-dead congressional members who would have to vote on the idea.

Meanwhile, across the pond, European "leaders" saw the sixth change in government since the debt crisis began as Spain elected into office the conservative Popular Party. Spain follows Ireland, Portugal, Slovakia, Greece and Italy in ousting parties that could not navigate Europe's ongoing crisis.

A report by Credit Suisse called “The ‘Last Days’ of the Euro,” warns that the 12-year-old currency may be under enough excess strain that the entire currency experiment could collapse soon, as the ECB struggles to create a funding mechanism that would take some of the pressure off Germany and, to a lesser extent, France.

All of these events and ideas led to a serious drubbing in US stocks, though the main catalyst for decline was surely the inaction by congress. As it has failed so many times in the past, expect this latest fiasco of central planning to escalate into finger-pointing, name-calling and another lurch toward anarchy in the USA.

Congress, state and local governments (mostly though the fascist attacks on "Occupy" protesters) have repeatedly shown that they have a general disdain for the people of America, preferring to focus their efforts on gaining re-election. Thus, they are, slowly, but surely, losing the ability to govern. If economic conditions don't improve in a dramatic way soon, or deteriorate further, expect the wheels of government to begin the process of grind to a halt before finally falling off completely.

It's a testament to the failed politics of crony capitalism and support for only the wealthiest Americans that are causing serious dislocations and mistrust of government at all levels. Elected leaders can stop it if they so choose, but they seem all too caught up in ideology to do anything constructive.

For this market, the old fascist line, "the beatings will continue until morale improves," seems oh so appropriate.

Dow 11,547.31, -248.85 (2.11%)
NASDAQ 2,523.14, -49.36 (1.92%)
S&P 500 1,192.98, -22.67 (1.86%)
NYSE Composite 7,134.73, -147.74 (2.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,063,252,500
NYSE Volume 4,050,063,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 908-4780
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 45-275 (oopsie!)
WTI crude oil: 97.41, +0.11
Gold: 1,678.60, -46.50
Silver: 31.12, -1.30

Rough Week for Stocks Ends Mixed; Markets Gripped by fear and Uncertainty

Despite some favorable economic news during the course of the week, market participants mostly shunned equities as Europe's ongoing crisis and the lack of a deal by the congressional super-committee kept money mostly on the sidelines or taking profits (and losses).

Since the US stock market has become more akin to a day-trading casino than an investment culture, traders now routinely react swiftly to breaking news and events, preferring to stay out of the way or grab quick profits as the tableau of international economic falderal unfolds. The week was marked by more speculation than actual news, as Italian and Spanish 10-year notes criss-crossed the 7% yield threshold and Germany continues to balk at being the savior of the Southern nations, even as Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted that her country was ready to cede some degree of sovereignty in order to salvage what's left of the European monetary union.

Germany holds the key to whether the decade-old European Union will survive, being the largest and strongest economy in the region. While Merkel has made pronouncements pleasing to her neighbors to the West and South, she is losing a degree of favor at home, as many Germans don't exactly share her views and dislike the role of Germany as the bailout nation for weaker economies.

Funding for Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain has become an issue so delicate and abstract that one solution offered was for the ECB to loan money to the IMF, which would then fund the ailing nations, though that kind of Ponzi scheme would only work to relieve the ECB of their presumptive role of being the "lender of last resort" such as the US Federal Reserve was during the 2008 crisis.

It's a touchy situation in Europe, with new governments in Italy and Greece, both tottering on the brink of default, though Greece's predicament - with no new funding coming soon - is degrees more perilous.

Here in the USA, congressional members have not exactly been forthright in their effort to reach a compromise on the roughly $1.2 trillion in budget cuts which was the mandated approach after the August debt ceiling debacle.

With the US public debt officially exceeding $15 trillion on Thursday and the prospects for another $1 trillion-plus deficit in the coming fiscal year, one would think that congress and their "super-committee" would have found some resolution before their November 23rd deadline, but, as usual, congressional members are deadlocked, mostly along party lines, with Republicans steadfastly refusing to approve anything which even smells like a tax hike and Democrats seemingly all too happy to allow the blame to accrue to their across-the-aisle counterparts.

With the deadline looming just five days ahead, members of the committee are pondering letting the deadline pass, which would trigger automatic spending-cuts, otherwise known as sequestration, though that approach is also riddled with question marks as some members have openly suggested that even those automatic cuts could be ripped asunder, primarily because of opposition to cuts to the Department of Defense.

The comedy of errors which began last Spring with the threatened shutdown of the federal government over budget issues threatens the US credit rating, already taken down a notch in August by Standard and Poor's. Failure to reach agreement might not engender another rating cut, though scuttling the previously agreed-to automatic cuts just might cause S&P to downgrade the US again.

Against this backdrop of a do-nothing congress without political will or wherewithal, and a fractured Europe an landscape, one can hardly blame traders for seeking the safety of cash or Treasuries. Volume on the stock exchanges this week has been dismal, exacerbated by a missing $600 million in investor funds courtesy of the recently-bankrupt MF Global. The fund, run by former Goldman Sachs CEO and New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, made heavy bets on European debt and found themselves in too deep. The current thinking is that MF Global used client funds to shore up losing positions before going belly-up, a practice that is wholly criminal.

However, since nobody ever goes to trial or jail for financial follies in the US, regulators are being very tight-lipped about the matter, even though reputations have already been badly tarnished and over half a billion dollars is either unavailable or lost.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrials took it on the chin to the tune of a 357-point decline. The S&P 500 fell 50 points during the week, the NASDAQ down 106 points and the NYSE Composite off by 294 points, hardly a ringing endorsement during a week that ended with options expiration, normally the forebear of a rally.

Maybe, with all the hurt, pain, fear and uncertainty, the big money went short.

Dow 11,796.16, +25.43 (0.22%)
NASDAQ 2,572.50, -15.49 (0.60%)
S&P 500 1,215.65, -0.48 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 7,282.47, +8.32 (0.11%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,754,685,000
NYSE Volume 3,679,453,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3011-2563
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 40-128
WTI crude oil: 97.41, -1.41
Gold: 1,725.10, +4.90
Silver: 32.42, +0.92

Market Turns Down Again on Euro Worries, Super-Committee Stalemate

Leadership is an elusive quality, and the leadership of most of Europe's nations and the lack thereof in the US congress were the primary causes for the stock market's retreat today, yesterday and for many days before this.

Europe will never solve the debt problems of decades of funding pensions with nothing to back it, so too with the congressional super-committee that now has just six days to come up with an agreement on a combination of budget cuts and new taxes. The won't make it because they long have been a group with various leaders without following.

Most of the plans and ideas that have come out of congress the past fifteen to twenty years have been detrimental to the general population, so it should not be a surprise that they are at loggerheads and unable to craft a deal that would satisfy the people, not their individual parties and ideologies.

Because of the leadership void, the US - and to a large extent, the global - economy is in standstill mode and wil remain there until some change is made. If it takes a new election, so be it. (Note: Ron Paul is in a four-way dead heat in Iowa with three clowns who don't hold a candle to him, yet the mainstream media will not focus on him because he will make fundamental, needed changes, to the detriment of the status quo.)

Thus, stocks remain largely rangebound, despite record earnings and generally positive economic data. Our leaders have failed. Perhaps the Occupy Wall Street protesters have a point, and it is time to take back the nation, by whatever means necessary.

At least the crude oil traders saw the light today for a brief moment. Oil should return to the $75-85 range shortly.

Dow 11,770.73, -134.86 (1.13%)
NASDAQ 2,587.99, -51.62 (1.96%)
S&P 500 1,216.13, -20.78 (1.68%)
NYSE Composite 7,274.15, -117.87 (1.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,225,355,750
NYSE Volume 4,596,486,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1292-4276
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 36-162 (we've turned again)
WTI crude oil: 98.82, -3.77
Gold: 1,720.20, -54.10
Silver: 31.50, -2.33