At 8:15 am today, it was game, set, match for the bulls, because the ADP employment report for June showed an increase of 157,000 jobs, more than double the 60-70,000 most economists were expecting. A surprise this large occurs seldom, despite the fact that economist "experts" are generally nothing more than professional guessers, so, the futures leapt forward and stocks opened the trading day strong to the upside.
Incidentally, initial unemployment claims came in at 418,000, the 13th straight week over 400,000, though the market shrugged that data off completely the moment it was released.
They stayed in positive territory for the remainder of the session, stretching the latest ramp-job bill run to eight days, though Tuesday and Wednesday of this week did see some deterioration.
With the government's non-farm payroll data due out at 8:30 am on Friday, there was little to fear into the close, as US markets put in another stellar performance. Stocks finished the day approaching the highs of the year (which are also three year highs, and in the case of the NASDAQ, nearly a four-year high), just two weeks after the gloom and doom crowd seemed to have set the tone for the rest of the year.
Now, this set-up, coming directly prior to earnings season, could be a mammoth double or triple top, but if it's not, expect the markets to go careening upwards without much resistance. Dow 13,000 is well within sight and there's nothing the Fed and the banks and the federal government would like to see more than some record-setting gains on the major indices.
Never mind that the equities game is as crooked and manipulated as they can possibly be, the idea is that the "wealth effect" will create more confidence in the average Joes and Janes, leading to more spending and a more robust economy. It actually could work, though there are doubters, especially the 15 million Americans who cannot find jobs, or the millions who have been foreclosed upon and subsequently lost their homes, or the 45 million on food stamps.
With those groups in consideration, there seems to be a massive disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street and it is precisely why a growing number of Americans have pulled out of stocks entirely and are investing in more down-to-earth investments like back-yard gardens, gold, silver and ammunition. This crowd does not trust the bailout queens of Wall Street nor the Sugar Daddies in the nation's capitol. Instead, they see a hollowed-out shell of a nation, pinning its hopes on paper pushers and overpriced, over-hyped securities that derive a major share of their profits outside the United States.
While a rising stock market may look good on paper, the inner workings of the US economy are badly damaged goods. States are struggling to meet budgets and there's been little to nothing done to address the root causes of the national slow-down: housing and jobs. we are living in a bifurcated economy and nation, and it is not likely to sustain itself well without some serious setbacks. But, for the time being, the status quo has carried the day, though its proclamations of recovery and prosperity (nobody actually saying that yet) don't ring true to many people.
Dow 12,719.19, +93.17 (0.74%)
NASDAQ 2,871.95, +37.93 (1.34%)
S&P 500 1,353.07, +13.85 (1.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,474.88, +78.40 (0.93%)
Advancing issues absolutely buried decliners on the day, 5126-1473. On the NASDAQ, 227 new highs and just 22 new lows. The NYSE had 287 new highs and 8 new lows, making the combined total 514 new highs and 30 new lows. These are the kinds of numbers that would signal a renewed bull market, indicating that there is more upside in the very near future, despite the low volume, which was at its high point of the week, not saying much.
NASDAQ Volume 1,793,291,000.00
NYSE Volume 3,860,334,750
Crude oil galloped ahead to the tune of a $2.02 per barrel gain, finishing at $98.67, which ensures high gas prices through the remainder of summer unless there's a sudden reversal (don't count on it). Gold posted a slight gain of $1.40, to $1,530.60; silver was up 62 cents, to $36.54, though it still seems range-bound and probably is, with the shorts still in control.
The gain in crude has outstripped the gains in the precious metals today, though it's difficult, if not impossible, to draw any sound conclusions from this except that the global central bank cartel likes higher oil prices much more than they like gold or silver. If they had it their way, gold and silver would not have any value at all.
Friday's non-farm payroll report should prove interesting, especially if it's an "official lie" of over 150,000 new jobs.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Market Struggles for Gains; Gold, Silver Continue Higher
US equity markets are, in a word, blah.
They struggled on low volume for a second consecutive day to find smallish gains, with nothing much to go on other than the Challenger, Gray and Christmas report on planned layoffs, which came out prior to the market open.
The report showed that planned job cuts were up by 5.3% as compared to June, 2010, another sign that the US job market is weak and may be deteriorating further.
With the ADP private employment report pushed back to Thursday, that's all investors, speculators and traders had to go on, which really wasn't much, but still managed to pull out gains in all but the NYSE Composite.
Things should get a bit more interesting in upcoming days and weeks, as first, the ADP report comes out prior to the market opening Thursday, then the big one, the BLS non-farm payroll survey on Friday. Following the weekend, it's straight into 2nd quarter earnings reports, kicked off by Alcoa (AA) following the close on Monday, July 11.
Of course, nobody wants to talk much about the stalemate in Washington over the debt ceiling. Republicans have tied it to a demand for deep budget cuts and no new taxes, while the Democrats seek to salvage their favorite hand-out, er, entitlement programs, financing them with an increase in taxes on top wage earners and the elimination of some tax loopholes.
These issues will remain in focus until somebody blinks, and it appears that everybody in the nation's capitol have their eyes wide shut whilst the nation careens into another recession, or, at best, an era of slow to no growth. Naturally, neither side will admit that the bigger issues of Medicare and Social Security need to be dealt with now, rather than later, but the usual posturing on both sides will almost certainly prevent any substantive discussions on what's eventually going to bankrupt the country.
Nonetheless, traders trudged on to moderate gains on Tuesday.
Dow 12,626.02, +56.15 (0.45%)
NASDAQ 2,834.02, +8.25 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,339.22, +1.34 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 8,396.48, -8.15 (0.10%)
Advancing issues led decliners, 3464-2920. On the NASDAQ, new highs led new lows, 143-28, and the same setup appeared on the NYSE, with new highs ahead, 159-12, putting the combined total at an unworldly 202-40. Volume, again, was very, very, excruciatingly weak.
NASDAQ Volume 1,602,326,250
NYSE Volume 3,613,122,000
Oil shed 24 cents on the NYMEX futures market, to $96.65, but the precious metals were where the action was for the second straight session. Gold finished $16.50 higher, at $1,529.20, while silver tacked on 51 cents, to $35.92. Seems there are people out there still who haven't bought into the whole "recovery" story we've been spoon-fed since Spring of 2009.
That's about all there is to know, that it's dreadfully slow, consumers are avoiding both shopping and stocks, and it's the middle of Summer. Head for the beach.
They struggled on low volume for a second consecutive day to find smallish gains, with nothing much to go on other than the Challenger, Gray and Christmas report on planned layoffs, which came out prior to the market open.
The report showed that planned job cuts were up by 5.3% as compared to June, 2010, another sign that the US job market is weak and may be deteriorating further.
With the ADP private employment report pushed back to Thursday, that's all investors, speculators and traders had to go on, which really wasn't much, but still managed to pull out gains in all but the NYSE Composite.
Things should get a bit more interesting in upcoming days and weeks, as first, the ADP report comes out prior to the market opening Thursday, then the big one, the BLS non-farm payroll survey on Friday. Following the weekend, it's straight into 2nd quarter earnings reports, kicked off by Alcoa (AA) following the close on Monday, July 11.
Of course, nobody wants to talk much about the stalemate in Washington over the debt ceiling. Republicans have tied it to a demand for deep budget cuts and no new taxes, while the Democrats seek to salvage their favorite hand-out, er, entitlement programs, financing them with an increase in taxes on top wage earners and the elimination of some tax loopholes.
These issues will remain in focus until somebody blinks, and it appears that everybody in the nation's capitol have their eyes wide shut whilst the nation careens into another recession, or, at best, an era of slow to no growth. Naturally, neither side will admit that the bigger issues of Medicare and Social Security need to be dealt with now, rather than later, but the usual posturing on both sides will almost certainly prevent any substantive discussions on what's eventually going to bankrupt the country.
Nonetheless, traders trudged on to moderate gains on Tuesday.
Dow 12,626.02, +56.15 (0.45%)
NASDAQ 2,834.02, +8.25 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,339.22, +1.34 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 8,396.48, -8.15 (0.10%)
Advancing issues led decliners, 3464-2920. On the NASDAQ, new highs led new lows, 143-28, and the same setup appeared on the NYSE, with new highs ahead, 159-12, putting the combined total at an unworldly 202-40. Volume, again, was very, very, excruciatingly weak.
NASDAQ Volume 1,602,326,250
NYSE Volume 3,613,122,000
Oil shed 24 cents on the NYMEX futures market, to $96.65, but the precious metals were where the action was for the second straight session. Gold finished $16.50 higher, at $1,529.20, while silver tacked on 51 cents, to $35.92. Seems there are people out there still who haven't bought into the whole "recovery" story we've been spoon-fed since Spring of 2009.
That's about all there is to know, that it's dreadfully slow, consumers are avoiding both shopping and stocks, and it's the middle of Summer. Head for the beach.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Stocks Stall While Precious Metals Soar
Well, that week-long, pre-holiday buying rush seems to have come and gone now that the three-day weekend has passed, which really isn't surprising, considering how vaporous and baseless the entire five days rally was.
Low volume, as usual, was the telling factor in the melt-up last week and now it's gone, maybe for good. There are no more suckers in the market, or at least not as many as there were a few years ago. One look at today's volume numbers will stamp that as fact. Today might go down as the lowest volume trading day of the year, though there have been so many, it may not, and besides, nobody's keeping score.
One the other hand, precious metals did astonishingly well. There seems to be another shift to safety underway and nothing is safer than gold, and maybe silver, if the price manipulation would ever cease.
Other than the obvious, there was little to report from the exchanges. One wonders how the CNBC anchors manage to stay awake on days like this.
Dow 12,569.87, -12.90 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 2,825.77, +9.74 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,337.88, -1.79 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 8,404.63, -20.85 (0.25%)
Advancing issues had a slim advantage over decliners, 3278-3231. On the NASDAQ, there were 149 new highs and 27 new lows. The NYSE new highs beat new lows, 173-7. Combined new highs: 322-34. As mentioned, volume was dismal.
NASDAQ Volume 1,569,571,875.00
NYSE Volume 3,676,082,750
The real action was in commodities. Oil surged again, gaining $1.95, to close the day at $96.89. Gold was boosted $30.10, to $1,512.70, while silver gained an inordinate $1.70, to finish at $35.41.
The world still waits for the congress and president to decide on whether or not to raise the debt ceiling. Both houses remain in session, even though the week is usually reserved for yet another undeserved week-long vacation. With any luck, congress will allow the government to borrow to its heart's content before the NFL settles their issues.
Truthfully, more people are concerned about the NFL season than the debt limit. Obviously, one can live without a functioning currency, but Sundays without pro football is an unthinkabel reality that nobody seriously wants to consider.
Low volume, as usual, was the telling factor in the melt-up last week and now it's gone, maybe for good. There are no more suckers in the market, or at least not as many as there were a few years ago. One look at today's volume numbers will stamp that as fact. Today might go down as the lowest volume trading day of the year, though there have been so many, it may not, and besides, nobody's keeping score.
One the other hand, precious metals did astonishingly well. There seems to be another shift to safety underway and nothing is safer than gold, and maybe silver, if the price manipulation would ever cease.
Other than the obvious, there was little to report from the exchanges. One wonders how the CNBC anchors manage to stay awake on days like this.
Dow 12,569.87, -12.90 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 2,825.77, +9.74 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,337.88, -1.79 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 8,404.63, -20.85 (0.25%)
Advancing issues had a slim advantage over decliners, 3278-3231. On the NASDAQ, there were 149 new highs and 27 new lows. The NYSE new highs beat new lows, 173-7. Combined new highs: 322-34. As mentioned, volume was dismal.
NASDAQ Volume 1,569,571,875.00
NYSE Volume 3,676,082,750
The real action was in commodities. Oil surged again, gaining $1.95, to close the day at $96.89. Gold was boosted $30.10, to $1,512.70, while silver gained an inordinate $1.70, to finish at $35.41.
The world still waits for the congress and president to decide on whether or not to raise the debt ceiling. Both houses remain in session, even though the week is usually reserved for yet another undeserved week-long vacation. With any luck, congress will allow the government to borrow to its heart's content before the NFL settles their issues.
Truthfully, more people are concerned about the NFL season than the debt limit. Obviously, one can live without a functioning currency, but Sundays without pro football is an unthinkabel reality that nobody seriously wants to consider.
Friday, July 1, 2011
What a Week for Stocks; Metals, Not So Much
Once word that the Greek government was going to pass the severe austerity measures on its people, so as to get another $17 billion in loans from the EU/IMF, stock traders were treated to a rare "all green" week of trading, as though risk had been taken entirely out of the equation.
Even the end of QE2 and the regime of free money for primary dealers didn't slow down the express train to the upside in equities. It was truly one of the best weeks ever for US markets in terms of gains, logging in five straight days of positive returns.
Here's how they fared.
On Friday, after closing out the second quarter with very positive vibes, stocks continued to rally on the first day of July and the third quarter with the best performance of the entire week, in hopes that there will not be many more natural disasters - such as Fukushima, Midwest tornadoes or Northwest floods - and that the messy situation in Greece is at least solved for now.
Apparently, there is little worry over when and whether congress will reach a deal on the debt ceiling, now that legislators have put off their usual Independence Day week-long recess, to supposedly work towards some kind of compromise on the matter.
Today's results:
Dow 12,582.77, +168.43 (1.36%)
NASDAQ 2,816.03, +42.51 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,339.67, +19.03 (1.44%)
NYSE Composite 8,425.46, +106.36 (1.28%)
Advancing issues had their way, beating decliners, 5104-1468. NASDAQ new highs: 148; new lows: 26; NYSE New highs 168; New lows: 4. Combined: 316 new highs, 30 new lows. Volume was even softer than what has normally been a lightly-traded market, leading some to conclude (perhaps rightfully so) that the movements of stocks in the age of whirring computers and unsolvable algorithms are highly manipulated by the big brokerages.
NASDAQ Volume 1,604,401,500
NYSE Volume 3,721,877,750
While stocks were soaring along, commodities - with the notable exception of oil - took it hard. Crude oil futures declined 48 cents, to $94.94, after gaining most of the week. Gold finished at its worst level in six weeks, down $20.20, to $1,482.60, and silver was pounded down once more, losing $1.13, to $33.70, a loss of more than 3%.
By the way, just in case someone comes along and tries to tell you that oil is priced so high because we're running out of it, you do have the right to punch that person in the nose or kick in the groin, as appropriate. The worldwide collusion in the price of oil and gasoline to consumers has been going on for some time (a long time) and the "peak oil" theory is about as useful as science as an ace bandage is to a torn ACL.
In a word, it is "bunk." For more information, see and read the work of F. William Engdahl.
Seriously, do you really believe that those "fossil fuels" - coal, natural gas and oil - come from the remains of dinosaurs? Considering the amount that's been dug, mined, stripped, pumped and drilled out of the earth the past 200 years alone would lead one to believe that the Jurasic period was a shoulder-to-shoulder affair.
Even the end of QE2 and the regime of free money for primary dealers didn't slow down the express train to the upside in equities. It was truly one of the best weeks ever for US markets in terms of gains, logging in five straight days of positive returns.
Here's how they fared.
| INDEX | CLOSE 6/24 | CLOSE 7/1 | POINTS +/- |
| DOW | 11,934.58 | 12,582.77 | +648.19 |
| NASDAQ | 2,652.89 | 2,816.03 | +163.14 |
| S&P 500 | 1,268.45 | 1,339.67 | +71.22 |
| NYSE COMP | 7,974.72 | 8,425.46 | 450.74 |
On Friday, after closing out the second quarter with very positive vibes, stocks continued to rally on the first day of July and the third quarter with the best performance of the entire week, in hopes that there will not be many more natural disasters - such as Fukushima, Midwest tornadoes or Northwest floods - and that the messy situation in Greece is at least solved for now.
Apparently, there is little worry over when and whether congress will reach a deal on the debt ceiling, now that legislators have put off their usual Independence Day week-long recess, to supposedly work towards some kind of compromise on the matter.
Today's results:
Dow 12,582.77, +168.43 (1.36%)
NASDAQ 2,816.03, +42.51 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,339.67, +19.03 (1.44%)
NYSE Composite 8,425.46, +106.36 (1.28%)
Advancing issues had their way, beating decliners, 5104-1468. NASDAQ new highs: 148; new lows: 26; NYSE New highs 168; New lows: 4. Combined: 316 new highs, 30 new lows. Volume was even softer than what has normally been a lightly-traded market, leading some to conclude (perhaps rightfully so) that the movements of stocks in the age of whirring computers and unsolvable algorithms are highly manipulated by the big brokerages.
NASDAQ Volume 1,604,401,500
NYSE Volume 3,721,877,750
While stocks were soaring along, commodities - with the notable exception of oil - took it hard. Crude oil futures declined 48 cents, to $94.94, after gaining most of the week. Gold finished at its worst level in six weeks, down $20.20, to $1,482.60, and silver was pounded down once more, losing $1.13, to $33.70, a loss of more than 3%.
By the way, just in case someone comes along and tries to tell you that oil is priced so high because we're running out of it, you do have the right to punch that person in the nose or kick in the groin, as appropriate. The worldwide collusion in the price of oil and gasoline to consumers has been going on for some time (a long time) and the "peak oil" theory is about as useful as science as an ace bandage is to a torn ACL.
In a word, it is "bunk." For more information, see and read the work of F. William Engdahl.
Seriously, do you really believe that those "fossil fuels" - coal, natural gas and oil - come from the remains of dinosaurs? Considering the amount that's been dug, mined, stripped, pumped and drilled out of the earth the past 200 years alone would lead one to believe that the Jurasic period was a shoulder-to-shoulder affair.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
QE2 Ends in No-Resistance Window Dressing Rally
Stocks made outsize gains for the fourth consecutive session; with the end of QE2 marking the end to more than $600 billion in monetary stimulus, traders, fittingly, went on a buying spree on the final day of the second quarter, whipping up stocks to sell to anybody willing to buy somewhere down the road.
The finality to the Fed's second attempt to re-invigorate the US economy has had some dubious effects, such as pushing crude oil and other commodities - with the notable exception of the precious metals - to nose-bleed levels, spiking interest rates (the 10-year is up more than 40 basis points in just the past three days) and generally applying relief to the banks, who have parked excess reserves at the Fed, without having done a thing to improve the horrific states of the housing and jobs markets. The US dollar is also down substantially against other currencies.
When the history books are written, QE1 and QE2 will be seen from the prism of a new present, and the look back will reveal whether or not the stimulus help or hastened the end of the fiat money era. For now, it continues to be an exercise in futility to bet against the Fed. Shorts have been burned repeatedly, as the flavor of fresh, daily money proved too difficult to resist for speculators.
With it over, the markets will have to go it alone, without the assistance or accommodation of the Federal Reserve, though it should be noted that the Fed stands ready to print more dollars and pump the banks further with liquidity at extraordinarily low rates. On top of that, the federal fund rate remains at 0.25-0.00%, an historical low, both of level and time. The rates have been down at those levels for nearly three years.
With half a year in the books, the major indices sport marginal gains for the year, bolstered by the past four days of hope and reckless buying. The markets even ignored another in a series of poor reports from the BLS on initial unemployment claims, which again came in higher than the rosy expectations, at 428,000, a drop of one thousand from the previous week, which supposedly was reason enough to cheer.
With one trading session remaining before the 4th of July holiday, not much is expected on Friday, as most of the big players will already be at their beach homes in the Hamptons or aboard their yachts. Yes, it is good to be rich.
Dow 12,414.34, +152.92 (1.25%)
NASDAQ 2,773.52, +33.03 (1.21%)
S&P 500 1,320.64, +13.23 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,319.10, +90.60 (1.10%)
Advancers led decliners, 4774-1827. NASDAQ new highs: 103; new lows: 35. NYSE new highs: 112; new lows: 12. Combined, 215 new highs, 47 new lows. Volume was consistent with Wednesday's flow rate, nothing surprising there.
NASDAQ Volume 1,837,387,750.00
NYSE Volume 4,199,619,000
Crude continued to rise, gaining 65 cents, to $95.42. Expect to be gouged for gas no matter where you live in America this weekend. Though the price of oil has fallen over the past month, it has surged in the past week.
Gold dropped $11.90, to 1499.90, while silver also took it on the chin, losing 20 cents, to $34.68.
It should be clear to everyone by now that fighting the Fed is a losing proposition, and, with the markets front-loaded for the primary dealers, there's no margin for error for the individual investor. For the present, it's up, up and away for stocks. Let's see how long it lasts.
The finality to the Fed's second attempt to re-invigorate the US economy has had some dubious effects, such as pushing crude oil and other commodities - with the notable exception of the precious metals - to nose-bleed levels, spiking interest rates (the 10-year is up more than 40 basis points in just the past three days) and generally applying relief to the banks, who have parked excess reserves at the Fed, without having done a thing to improve the horrific states of the housing and jobs markets. The US dollar is also down substantially against other currencies.
When the history books are written, QE1 and QE2 will be seen from the prism of a new present, and the look back will reveal whether or not the stimulus help or hastened the end of the fiat money era. For now, it continues to be an exercise in futility to bet against the Fed. Shorts have been burned repeatedly, as the flavor of fresh, daily money proved too difficult to resist for speculators.
With it over, the markets will have to go it alone, without the assistance or accommodation of the Federal Reserve, though it should be noted that the Fed stands ready to print more dollars and pump the banks further with liquidity at extraordinarily low rates. On top of that, the federal fund rate remains at 0.25-0.00%, an historical low, both of level and time. The rates have been down at those levels for nearly three years.
With half a year in the books, the major indices sport marginal gains for the year, bolstered by the past four days of hope and reckless buying. The markets even ignored another in a series of poor reports from the BLS on initial unemployment claims, which again came in higher than the rosy expectations, at 428,000, a drop of one thousand from the previous week, which supposedly was reason enough to cheer.
With one trading session remaining before the 4th of July holiday, not much is expected on Friday, as most of the big players will already be at their beach homes in the Hamptons or aboard their yachts. Yes, it is good to be rich.
Dow 12,414.34, +152.92 (1.25%)
NASDAQ 2,773.52, +33.03 (1.21%)
S&P 500 1,320.64, +13.23 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,319.10, +90.60 (1.10%)
Advancers led decliners, 4774-1827. NASDAQ new highs: 103; new lows: 35. NYSE new highs: 112; new lows: 12. Combined, 215 new highs, 47 new lows. Volume was consistent with Wednesday's flow rate, nothing surprising there.
NASDAQ Volume 1,837,387,750.00
NYSE Volume 4,199,619,000
Crude continued to rise, gaining 65 cents, to $95.42. Expect to be gouged for gas no matter where you live in America this weekend. Though the price of oil has fallen over the past month, it has surged in the past week.
Gold dropped $11.90, to 1499.90, while silver also took it on the chin, losing 20 cents, to $34.68.
It should be clear to everyone by now that fighting the Fed is a losing proposition, and, with the markets front-loaded for the primary dealers, there's no margin for error for the individual investor. For the present, it's up, up and away for stocks. Let's see how long it lasts.
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