Seriously, folks, this is getting old.
Major US averages fell for the 16th time in the last 17 Mondays.
This is the new regime. Stocks always go down on Mondays and up on Fridays. They trade in extremely narrow ranges with little to no volatility. Anybody making open orders is immediately raped by HFTs and only insiders win. There is no volume (actually today's volume on the NYSE was in the range from pathetic to morose).
There was actually some positive news on the day. According to a Sunday Times article, Goldman Sachs (GS) is planning to lay off as many as 100 partners in the immediate future. The firm denied the allegations, saying that the changes had been long-planned and many of the departures are due to retirements. No matter the case, it's always good to hear that some of the tentacles of the "giant squid" are being shorn off.
A huge riot of some 5000 workers forced the shutdown of a huge Foxconn facility in Taiyuan, China. The facility reportedly employs 79,000 workers and manufactures the Apple iPhone and other electronic devices for companies such as Dell and Hewlett-Packard.
The price of crude oil fell again on Monday, causing speculation that the Fed's new bond purchase program, otherwise known as QEternity, is not going to be effective in creating jobs or strengthening the sagging US and global economies.
Business as usual.
Dow 13,558.92, -20.55 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,160.78, -19.18 (0.60%)
S&P 500 1,456.89, -3.26 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 8,356.56, -20.95 (0.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,706,535,750
NYSE Volume 2,992,098,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2337-3175
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 307-27
WTI crude oil: 91.93, -0.96
Gold: 1,764.60, -13.40
Silver: 33.98, -0.65
Monday, September 24, 2012
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Initial Claims, Leading Indicators Disappoint; Investors Don't Care
Initial unemployment claims and the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators both showed disappointing results but investors (those few left) didn't seem to care.
The number of people looking for jobs fell 3,000 from last week, with 382,000 new filers. Leading indicators were down 0.1 percent in August after rising 0.5 percent in July and dropping 0.5 percent in June.
Stocks traded lower in the morning, but quickly rebounded to unchanged, where they remained range-bound the remainder of the session.
It was another low-volume fiasco, brought to you by bankers who can't balance their books and journalists who can scarcely string together two cogent sentences.
Markets, especially those in the US, are so woefully correlated to the macro trade that it would be funny if it weren't so pathetic. Since fall of 2008, trading has been conducted on rumor, innuendo and the latest efforts by the Federal Reserve to "revive" the economy, even though their efforts have been directed almost entirely at rescuing failed financial institutions.
The Fed has thrown more than $20 trillion at the problems which first surfaced with sub-prime lending, but have since infected institutions and sovereign governments globally. Their efforts have been largely futile, wasteful and unfriendly to savers, but there seems to be no other way to keep the world's economic mess going other than to make frequent use of easing, by sopping up debt nobody wants because it is either eminently non-collateralized, below par or not redeemable for anything approaching fair value.
Global markets continue to plod along, nations continue to spend beyond their means and Wall Street thinks it's wonderful.
Just play along.
Dow 13,596.93 18.97(0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,175.96 6.66 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,460.26 0.79 (0.05%)
NYSE Compos... 8,373.06 27.43 (0.33%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,789,587,250
NYSE Volume 3,372,348,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2132-3369
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 225-35
WTI crude oil: 91.87, -0.11
Gold: 1,770.20, -1.50
Silver: 34.68, -0.09
The number of people looking for jobs fell 3,000 from last week, with 382,000 new filers. Leading indicators were down 0.1 percent in August after rising 0.5 percent in July and dropping 0.5 percent in June.
Stocks traded lower in the morning, but quickly rebounded to unchanged, where they remained range-bound the remainder of the session.
It was another low-volume fiasco, brought to you by bankers who can't balance their books and journalists who can scarcely string together two cogent sentences.
Markets, especially those in the US, are so woefully correlated to the macro trade that it would be funny if it weren't so pathetic. Since fall of 2008, trading has been conducted on rumor, innuendo and the latest efforts by the Federal Reserve to "revive" the economy, even though their efforts have been directed almost entirely at rescuing failed financial institutions.
The Fed has thrown more than $20 trillion at the problems which first surfaced with sub-prime lending, but have since infected institutions and sovereign governments globally. Their efforts have been largely futile, wasteful and unfriendly to savers, but there seems to be no other way to keep the world's economic mess going other than to make frequent use of easing, by sopping up debt nobody wants because it is either eminently non-collateralized, below par or not redeemable for anything approaching fair value.
Global markets continue to plod along, nations continue to spend beyond their means and Wall Street thinks it's wonderful.
Just play along.
Dow 13,596.93 18.97(0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,175.96 6.66 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,460.26 0.79 (0.05%)
NYSE Compos... 8,373.06 27.43 (0.33%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,789,587,250
NYSE Volume 3,372,348,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2132-3369
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 225-35
WTI crude oil: 91.87, -0.11
Gold: 1,770.20, -1.50
Silver: 34.68, -0.09
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
BOJ Eases; Housing a Little Better; Oil Takes Another Hit
OK, it's getting a little stupid with the incessant chorus of monetization of government (and bank debt).
Today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) joined in, announcing something along the lines of a couple quadrillion yen to be added to liquidity over the next six to eight months. That may not be correct, but the numbers were large, the editor is too tired from cutting down dead limbs (from actual trees), and the time period is rather irrelevant, since the BOJ has been doing this kind of thing for 20-odd years, with obvious effect: keeping the Japanese economy mired in a semi-permanent state alternating between inflation and depression.
Markets took the news in stride, as usual, bounced around a bit, eventually ending only slightly higher on low volume. That's the story for now, and, while it doesn't change much, some day it will. In the meantime, we're taking our own advice and buying land, seeds (tomatoes, tobacco, broccoli, etc.), silver and maybe some working firearms.
There was what might be called "encouraging" news on the housing front. Housing starts (officially, a shovel in the ground or a stake being placed on a lot by a surveyor) came in at 750K in August, but that was below forecast, though up from the July figure of 733K, which was revised downward from 746K, so, expect the August figures to be revised lower as well, for a net gain of, well, who knows?
Existing home sales for August came in at an annual run-rate of 4.82 million, up from an unrevised 4.47 million in July and well ahead of forecasts. That was the best of the news, because August building permits, viewed as an indicator of current demand, fell from 812K in July to 803K, putting something of a damper on the "animal spirits" which keep calling the bottom in the housing market month after month.
Is this the bottom? Maybe, though that depends on perspective and how far out you wish to project. Give housing another four years of ZIRP, massive MBS buying and monetization of the federal debt and see where we are then.
Even better news came from the oil commodity complex, where the price of crude took another massive hit. There's no telling where the selling is coming from, or why, though it certainly seems fishy given the closeness to the general election - just six short weeks away - and the inherently inflationary effect of Bernanke's QEternity, but, it's welcome relief for drivers in the US, at least.
Dow 13,577.96, +13.32(0.10%)
NASDAQ 3,182.62, +4.82(0.15%)
S&P 5001,461.05, +1.73 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,400.31, +12.87 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,826,526,125
NYSE Volume 3,409,506,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2914-2500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 315-28
WTI crude oil: 91.98, -3.31
Gold: 1,771.70, +0.50
Silver: 34.59, -0.13
Today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) joined in, announcing something along the lines of a couple quadrillion yen to be added to liquidity over the next six to eight months. That may not be correct, but the numbers were large, the editor is too tired from cutting down dead limbs (from actual trees), and the time period is rather irrelevant, since the BOJ has been doing this kind of thing for 20-odd years, with obvious effect: keeping the Japanese economy mired in a semi-permanent state alternating between inflation and depression.
Markets took the news in stride, as usual, bounced around a bit, eventually ending only slightly higher on low volume. That's the story for now, and, while it doesn't change much, some day it will. In the meantime, we're taking our own advice and buying land, seeds (tomatoes, tobacco, broccoli, etc.), silver and maybe some working firearms.
There was what might be called "encouraging" news on the housing front. Housing starts (officially, a shovel in the ground or a stake being placed on a lot by a surveyor) came in at 750K in August, but that was below forecast, though up from the July figure of 733K, which was revised downward from 746K, so, expect the August figures to be revised lower as well, for a net gain of, well, who knows?
Existing home sales for August came in at an annual run-rate of 4.82 million, up from an unrevised 4.47 million in July and well ahead of forecasts. That was the best of the news, because August building permits, viewed as an indicator of current demand, fell from 812K in July to 803K, putting something of a damper on the "animal spirits" which keep calling the bottom in the housing market month after month.
Is this the bottom? Maybe, though that depends on perspective and how far out you wish to project. Give housing another four years of ZIRP, massive MBS buying and monetization of the federal debt and see where we are then.
Even better news came from the oil commodity complex, where the price of crude took another massive hit. There's no telling where the selling is coming from, or why, though it certainly seems fishy given the closeness to the general election - just six short weeks away - and the inherently inflationary effect of Bernanke's QEternity, but, it's welcome relief for drivers in the US, at least.
Dow 13,577.96, +13.32(0.10%)
NASDAQ 3,182.62, +4.82(0.15%)
S&P 5001,461.05, +1.73 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,400.31, +12.87 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,826,526,125
NYSE Volume 3,409,506,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2914-2500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 315-28
WTI crude oil: 91.98, -3.31
Gold: 1,771.70, +0.50
Silver: 34.59, -0.13
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
With Everything Priced In, Trading Remains Sluggish
Well, absolutely everything from QE3 to the ECB's bond-buying program to Midwest drought to the presidential election has been completely priced into stocks, so they have nowhere to go at present.
The NASDAQ traded in about an eight-point range, a fivepoint swing top to bottom as all the S&P could muster, while the Dow - the only index higher on the session - was range-bound by 64 points. Volume, not unexpectedly, was light and volatility was nowhere to be found.
This, of course, is the direct result of government intervention into what used to be free markets, central planning of the economy and socialization of losses by financial firms.
It goes without saying that it is tough to make money in such an environment. Stocks are poised either near all-time highs or, as in the case of the NASDAQ, multi-year highs. The level of complacency, knowing that the Fed can and will step in at any sign of weakness, is almost unbearably stupid.
Since Fed chairman Ben Bernanke called for $40 billion in monthly MBS purchases without placing a duration limit, the major averages have more or less flat-lined.
That's about the whole story for today. Nothing much happened.
There was one bit of good news: oil fell substantially for the second straight day. If the current move downward (oil prices usually drop after Labor Day) is sustained, within a month, drivers should begin to see lower prices at the pump.
Dow 13,564.64, -11.54(0.09%)
NASDAQ 3,177.80, -0.87 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,459.32, -1.87 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 8,387.52, -21.45 (0.26%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,672,492,500
NYSE Volume 3,350,519,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2560-2973
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 191-20
WTI crude oil: 95.29, -1.33
Gold: 1,771.20, +0.60
Silver: 34.72, +0.35
The NASDAQ traded in about an eight-point range, a fivepoint swing top to bottom as all the S&P could muster, while the Dow - the only index higher on the session - was range-bound by 64 points. Volume, not unexpectedly, was light and volatility was nowhere to be found.
This, of course, is the direct result of government intervention into what used to be free markets, central planning of the economy and socialization of losses by financial firms.
It goes without saying that it is tough to make money in such an environment. Stocks are poised either near all-time highs or, as in the case of the NASDAQ, multi-year highs. The level of complacency, knowing that the Fed can and will step in at any sign of weakness, is almost unbearably stupid.
Since Fed chairman Ben Bernanke called for $40 billion in monthly MBS purchases without placing a duration limit, the major averages have more or less flat-lined.
That's about the whole story for today. Nothing much happened.
There was one bit of good news: oil fell substantially for the second straight day. If the current move downward (oil prices usually drop after Labor Day) is sustained, within a month, drivers should begin to see lower prices at the pump.
Dow 13,564.64, -11.54(0.09%)
NASDAQ 3,177.80, -0.87 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,459.32, -1.87 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 8,387.52, -21.45 (0.26%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,672,492,500
NYSE Volume 3,350,519,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2560-2973
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 191-20
WTI crude oil: 95.29, -1.33
Gold: 1,771.20, +0.60
Silver: 34.72, +0.35
Monday, September 17, 2012
Markets Close Down 15th Monday Out of Last 16
Despite the aggressive easing action by the Fed last week, today's session was marked by broad-based selling on low volume, the 15th consecutive Monday of the last 16 in which the markets turned lower for the day.
It is one of the odder trends in the markets these days, but is most likely tied to HFTs and the macro-analysis upon which markets currently depend. There was once a time in which everything didn't fall or rise in unison, perfectly predictable, dependent upon headlines, but that has been the regime - for the most part - since the financial crisis of 2008. Nothing's been repaired and market participants merely follow the herd, which, truth be told, has been a most profitable trade since March 2009, with stocks close to all-time or multi year highs.
Another oddity carried forth today was how the NYSE Composite took on roughly twice the water than the other indices, on a percentage basis. Apple (AAPL) kept the NASDAQ and S&P at relatively minimal losses, while the Dow Industrials were boosted by consumer stocks (Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD)), big phrama names, Merck (MRK) and Phizer (PFE), all of which bucked the trend and closed on the upside.
All of the major indices finished well off their lows, with a short-covering spike sending all off what were the lows of the day, in the final hour of trading.
There was little in the way of economic data - as if the markets would have cared anyway - except New York's Empire Manufacturing Index, which fell to -10.4, its lowest level since November, 2010. It followed the recent trend of other Fed regional indices, sporting sub-par results. With that in mind, it's little wonder that the Fed decided last week to go all in on what some are calling QE-infinity.
Financial markets are a complete farce now, and have been pretty much since the 2008 crash. The Federal Reserve's insistence to sop up the remains of old and recently-issued MBS truly points up the dilemma faced by central banks and sovereign government entities.
With the Fed becoming the world's largest landlord-by-proxy, the rally cry of "free houses for everyone!" has taken on new and even more cynical meaning.
In a move that can only be captioned by the phrase, "well, it's about time," crude oil skidded more than $3.00 before recovering slightly.
Dow 13,553.10, -40.27 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 3,178.67, -8.46 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,461.19, -4.58 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite 8,408.92, -49.96 (0.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,428,619,250
NYSE Volume 3,135,453,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1883-3624
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 228-26
WTI crude oil: 96.62, -2.38
Gold: 1,770.60, -2.10
Silver: 34.37, -0.29
It is one of the odder trends in the markets these days, but is most likely tied to HFTs and the macro-analysis upon which markets currently depend. There was once a time in which everything didn't fall or rise in unison, perfectly predictable, dependent upon headlines, but that has been the regime - for the most part - since the financial crisis of 2008. Nothing's been repaired and market participants merely follow the herd, which, truth be told, has been a most profitable trade since March 2009, with stocks close to all-time or multi year highs.
Another oddity carried forth today was how the NYSE Composite took on roughly twice the water than the other indices, on a percentage basis. Apple (AAPL) kept the NASDAQ and S&P at relatively minimal losses, while the Dow Industrials were boosted by consumer stocks (Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD)), big phrama names, Merck (MRK) and Phizer (PFE), all of which bucked the trend and closed on the upside.
All of the major indices finished well off their lows, with a short-covering spike sending all off what were the lows of the day, in the final hour of trading.
There was little in the way of economic data - as if the markets would have cared anyway - except New York's Empire Manufacturing Index, which fell to -10.4, its lowest level since November, 2010. It followed the recent trend of other Fed regional indices, sporting sub-par results. With that in mind, it's little wonder that the Fed decided last week to go all in on what some are calling QE-infinity.
Financial markets are a complete farce now, and have been pretty much since the 2008 crash. The Federal Reserve's insistence to sop up the remains of old and recently-issued MBS truly points up the dilemma faced by central banks and sovereign government entities.
With the Fed becoming the world's largest landlord-by-proxy, the rally cry of "free houses for everyone!" has taken on new and even more cynical meaning.
In a move that can only be captioned by the phrase, "well, it's about time," crude oil skidded more than $3.00 before recovering slightly.
Dow 13,553.10, -40.27 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 3,178.67, -8.46 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,461.19, -4.58 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite 8,408.92, -49.96 (0.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,428,619,250
NYSE Volume 3,135,453,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1883-3624
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 228-26
WTI crude oil: 96.62, -2.38
Gold: 1,770.60, -2.10
Silver: 34.37, -0.29
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