Retail sales for September, as reported on Monday prior to the opening bell, were up sharply year-over-year and were up 1.1% after a 1.2% rise in August.
So, did the retail sector fuel the rare Monday rally, which was only the third time stocks had shown gains on a Monday in the past 20 weeks?
Well, yes they did, as the Consumer Cyclical space gained 1.11%, the best sector gain of the day. Following were Health Care and Financials, the latter based largely on an earnings beat by Citicroup (C), which beat solidly on revenue as well.
The timing could not have been better for options players as October monthly options settle this week, on Friday, just in time for stocks to head to new highs and savvy options professionals cash in on their bets.
Trading on this Monday was a radical departure from last week's broad decline, with the advance-decline line repairing itself and new highs beating new lows by a 2-1 ratio.
Oddly enough, the market wins either way in the currently-convoluted presidential debate regime that is market psychology. With retail and stocks doing well, one would envisage an Obama victory on November 6, anathema to the markets, but, good numbers are good numbers, so, stock traders went along for the ride.
Sticking with the current thinking, even if retail sales had been poor, stocks would probably have risen anyway, because the poor numbers would indicate a Romney victory, which the market is said to love.
In either case, stocks win, even on a day when commodities were hit hard across the board, especially in the precious metals segment, as gold and silver were pounded lower right from the opening of trading.
That seems to be the game plan, at least for today, by the central bank stock market cartel controlling markets worldwide. Buy riskier assets and sell off those things that are proven to be a reliable store of value.
It's working, as stocks are within 5-8% of all time highs on the S&P and the Dow. It's a very interesting time for both political junkies and market watchers, but should get even more intense during the week and after options expiry on Friday. There's still unfinished business in Europe, mostly regarding Greece and Spain, and a shock from the land of the socialists could easily upset any balancing act currently taking place in the markets.
Most of the attention is focused on Tuesday night's presidential debate, the current wisdom saying that another poor performance by president Obama would practically hand the election over to Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger, making the event must-see TV for all, despite the thinly-veiled sarcasm in that statement.
The debates are largely political porn, with many voters having already made up their minds. If Obama purposely throws Tuesday's debate, as he did the first one, it would give Romney an edge, so, considering how the media whores need to keep the American public on the edge of their seats right up until - and beyond - election day, count on the President to deliver some serious body blows Tuesday night, followed by a negative market reaction Wednesday.
With the election just three weeks away, expect the rhetoric and noise to rise to a crescendo in coming weeks. Along with it could be a climactic rise in stocks, with the Dow touching off new all-time highs and the S&P hot on its heels, or, a dramatic turndown heading into the big fiasco that is election day in America.
Dow 13,424.23, +95.38 (0.72%)
NASDAQ 3,064.18, +20.07 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,440.13, +11.54 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 8,296.97, +69.89 (0.85%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,536,536,250
NYSE Volume 3,257,196,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3596-1897
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 133-65
WTI crude oil: 91.85, -0.01
Gold: 1,737.60, -22.10
Silver: 32.74, -0.926
Monday, October 15, 2012
Friday, October 12, 2012
Stocks Erase Early Gains, Close Flat
Eerily similar to Thursday's trading pattern, stocks rode early gains until 10:00 am EDT, then quickly sold off, spent the rest of the session in the red and finished flat.
The drop in equities coincided neatly with the release of the University of Michigan's October Consumer Sentiment survey, which showed a reading of 83.1, after posting a 783 figure in September. Either the respondents to the survey have been enjoying some good life, or, like other economic data releases over the past month or so, the data is being rigged in advance of the November elections.
Such conspiracy theories have been gaining traction in recent days, and barely anyone would be surprised, at this point, if some of them were proven valid.
While the indices ended flat, the advance-decline line experienced serious deterioration, suggesting that there were few buyers in the market and those were very selective.
Otherwise, it was a lackluster day for equities. JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) both reported third quarter earnings prior to the opening bell and both beat on the earnings side, though Wells missed revenue projections. Both stocks sold off during the trading session, due, in part, to one of the unexpected consequences of ZIRP and QEternity by the Federal Reserve: with borrowing and lending rates so low, banks are finding it difficult to make money.
Put that in the Keynesian "I told you so" file and have a happy weekend.
Dow 13,328.85, +2.46 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,044.11, -5.30 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,428.59, -4.25 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite 8,227.08, -29.51 (0.36%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,545,540,250
NYSE Volume 3,132,356,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1930-3489
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-61
WTI crude oil: 91.86, -0.21
Gold: 1,759.70, -10.90
Silver: 33.67, -0.413
The drop in equities coincided neatly with the release of the University of Michigan's October Consumer Sentiment survey, which showed a reading of 83.1, after posting a 783 figure in September. Either the respondents to the survey have been enjoying some good life, or, like other economic data releases over the past month or so, the data is being rigged in advance of the November elections.
Such conspiracy theories have been gaining traction in recent days, and barely anyone would be surprised, at this point, if some of them were proven valid.
While the indices ended flat, the advance-decline line experienced serious deterioration, suggesting that there were few buyers in the market and those were very selective.
Otherwise, it was a lackluster day for equities. JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) both reported third quarter earnings prior to the opening bell and both beat on the earnings side, though Wells missed revenue projections. Both stocks sold off during the trading session, due, in part, to one of the unexpected consequences of ZIRP and QEternity by the Federal Reserve: with borrowing and lending rates so low, banks are finding it difficult to make money.
Put that in the Keynesian "I told you so" file and have a happy weekend.
Dow 13,328.85, +2.46 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,044.11, -5.30 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,428.59, -4.25 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite 8,227.08, -29.51 (0.36%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,545,540,250
NYSE Volume 3,132,356,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1930-3489
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-61
WTI crude oil: 91.86, -0.21
Gold: 1,759.70, -10.90
Silver: 33.67, -0.413
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Push Rally Fades as Unemployment Data is Corrupted
Stocks turned in a split decision on Thursday, with the Dow and NASDAQ finishing negative, while the S&P and Composite posted marginal gains.
Based upon rumor, innuendo, corrupted unemployment claims data and speculation that stocks had become "oversold" (what a joke!), all of the major indices opened higher, but by 11:00 am EDT began to slide off their highs, demonstrating the kind of pattern that is typical of bear markets, but also reminiscent of the many hype rallies that the centrally-controlled markets have made commonplace.
By the end of the day, stocks had given up all their gains (the Dow reach a peak some 71 points higher than yesterday's close), with the Dow suffering its fourth straight negative close, the NASDAQ making it five in a row for the bears.
According to reports, such as this one from CNN, the Labor Department suggested the drop in initial claims to 339,000, the lowest number in over four years and a decline of 30,000 from last week, was due to a technical issue.
The Labor Department noted to journalists that one state - unnamed - posted a large decline in claims, something not normal for the last week in September, which is the end of the third quarter.
This unusual report comes less than a week after the non-farm payroll report for September sent the official unemployment rate to 7.8%, also more than a four year low. Some have charged that the BLS NFP report was corrupted due to politics, noting that no sitting president since FDR had won re-election with an unemployment rate over eight percent.
Whatever the case, the market, for a change, isn't buying it, so the insider bankers and their friends in high political places will have to do better than that if they want to keep stocks levitating, as they have been since June.
Additionally, investors are looking forward to third quarter earnings reports from JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) along with PPI for September prior to the opening of trading on Friday. The monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is also on tap for Friday at 9:55 am EDT. The market is expecting a reading of 78.5 after last month's 78.3.
Stocks are on track for their worst week in four months, though today's A-D line showed marked improvement and new highs outpaced new lows, 146-55.
Dow 13,326.39, -18.58 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,049.38, -2.40 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,432.84, +0.28 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,256.66, +27.48 (0.33%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,583,197,750
NYSE Volume 3,622,859,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3463-2002
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 146-55
WTI crude oil: 92.07, +0.82
Gold: 1,770.60, +5.50
Silver: 34.08, -0.027
Based upon rumor, innuendo, corrupted unemployment claims data and speculation that stocks had become "oversold" (what a joke!), all of the major indices opened higher, but by 11:00 am EDT began to slide off their highs, demonstrating the kind of pattern that is typical of bear markets, but also reminiscent of the many hype rallies that the centrally-controlled markets have made commonplace.
By the end of the day, stocks had given up all their gains (the Dow reach a peak some 71 points higher than yesterday's close), with the Dow suffering its fourth straight negative close, the NASDAQ making it five in a row for the bears.
According to reports, such as this one from CNN, the Labor Department suggested the drop in initial claims to 339,000, the lowest number in over four years and a decline of 30,000 from last week, was due to a technical issue.
The Labor Department noted to journalists that one state - unnamed - posted a large decline in claims, something not normal for the last week in September, which is the end of the third quarter.
This unusual report comes less than a week after the non-farm payroll report for September sent the official unemployment rate to 7.8%, also more than a four year low. Some have charged that the BLS NFP report was corrupted due to politics, noting that no sitting president since FDR had won re-election with an unemployment rate over eight percent.
Whatever the case, the market, for a change, isn't buying it, so the insider bankers and their friends in high political places will have to do better than that if they want to keep stocks levitating, as they have been since June.
Additionally, investors are looking forward to third quarter earnings reports from JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) along with PPI for September prior to the opening of trading on Friday. The monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is also on tap for Friday at 9:55 am EDT. The market is expecting a reading of 78.5 after last month's 78.3.
Stocks are on track for their worst week in four months, though today's A-D line showed marked improvement and new highs outpaced new lows, 146-55.
Dow 13,326.39, -18.58 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,049.38, -2.40 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,432.84, +0.28 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,256.66, +27.48 (0.33%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,583,197,750
NYSE Volume 3,622,859,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3463-2002
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 146-55
WTI crude oil: 92.07, +0.82
Gold: 1,770.60, +5.50
Silver: 34.08, -0.027
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Dow Tanks, Takes Other Averages with It as Global Slowdown Concerns Mount
There was no last hour rally for stocks on wednesday, no reprise of the late-day rallies that typified behavior through the summer and into the early days of fall.
Investors were taking profits and worried about the future after Alcoa (AA) kicked off 3rd quarter earnings season after the close Tuesday with a downbeat outlook, calling for reduced demand for aluminum in a worldwide slowdown.
The leading global producer of aluminum reported a third quarter net loss of $143 million, or -13 cents per share, compared with a profit of $172 million, or 15 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, adjusted profit was 3 cents per share, which beat consensus estimates which were calling for a roughly break-even quarter.
The company lowered its 2012 growth forecast for aluminum from seven percent to six, saying weak demand from China was the leading cause for the revision.
The Dow led the indices into the red, dragging the S&P and NASDAQ lower throughout a session which witnessed slow deterioration in share prices from the open into the close as an IMF report released on Tuesday, calling for lower 2013 growth worldwide, continued to weigh on markets.
Adding to the chorus calling for slowing growth, OPEC said that current production levels were ample heading into 2013 as demand continues to wane. That sent oil prices tumbling from early-day gains to a loss at the close of floor trading.
It was the third straight negative day on the Dow, the fourth for the S&P and NASDAQ and the first triple-digit loss on the Dow since July 23-24.
Stocks have been moving lower this week after reaching an interim high of 13,610.15 on the 5th of October, the day the non-farm payroll data was released. Since then, stocks have moved markedly lower, with the Dow down two percent in the first three days of this week, closing today just above the 50-day moving average.
The NASDAQ, the worst performer of the major indices this week, broke through its 50-day moving average on Tuesday and failed to recover today, spending only a few brief moments this morning on the plus side before deteriorating through the session.
Also hovering dangerously close to its 50-day MA, the S&P 500 has been down since making a double top on the 5th of October.
The two most robust indicators, the advance-decline line and the new highs - new lows metric continued to deteriorate, with the NASDAQ showing more new lows than highs for the second straight session, 32-53, and new highs holding a very slim edge - 42-33 - on the NYSE. Cumulatively, new lows outpaced new highs 86-74.
All this occurred without any assistance from Europe, where stocks were lower in nearly all Eurozone nations. Meetings scheduled for next week to hammer out bailout details for various countries and banking systems are seen to be troublesome and also weighing on sentiment, which has recently turned negative.
Dow 13,344.97, -128.56 (0.95%)
NASDAQ 3,051.78, -13.24 (0.43%)
S&P 500 1,432.56, -8.92 (0.62%)
NYSE Composite 8,220.62, -58.48 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,763,862,625
NYSE Volume 2,927,658,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2271-3218
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 74-86
WTI crude oil: 91.25, -1.14
Gold: 1,765.10, +0.10
Silver: 34.11, +0.124
Investors were taking profits and worried about the future after Alcoa (AA) kicked off 3rd quarter earnings season after the close Tuesday with a downbeat outlook, calling for reduced demand for aluminum in a worldwide slowdown.
The leading global producer of aluminum reported a third quarter net loss of $143 million, or -13 cents per share, compared with a profit of $172 million, or 15 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, adjusted profit was 3 cents per share, which beat consensus estimates which were calling for a roughly break-even quarter.
The company lowered its 2012 growth forecast for aluminum from seven percent to six, saying weak demand from China was the leading cause for the revision.
The Dow led the indices into the red, dragging the S&P and NASDAQ lower throughout a session which witnessed slow deterioration in share prices from the open into the close as an IMF report released on Tuesday, calling for lower 2013 growth worldwide, continued to weigh on markets.
Adding to the chorus calling for slowing growth, OPEC said that current production levels were ample heading into 2013 as demand continues to wane. That sent oil prices tumbling from early-day gains to a loss at the close of floor trading.
It was the third straight negative day on the Dow, the fourth for the S&P and NASDAQ and the first triple-digit loss on the Dow since July 23-24.
Stocks have been moving lower this week after reaching an interim high of 13,610.15 on the 5th of October, the day the non-farm payroll data was released. Since then, stocks have moved markedly lower, with the Dow down two percent in the first three days of this week, closing today just above the 50-day moving average.
The NASDAQ, the worst performer of the major indices this week, broke through its 50-day moving average on Tuesday and failed to recover today, spending only a few brief moments this morning on the plus side before deteriorating through the session.
Also hovering dangerously close to its 50-day MA, the S&P 500 has been down since making a double top on the 5th of October.
The two most robust indicators, the advance-decline line and the new highs - new lows metric continued to deteriorate, with the NASDAQ showing more new lows than highs for the second straight session, 32-53, and new highs holding a very slim edge - 42-33 - on the NYSE. Cumulatively, new lows outpaced new highs 86-74.
All this occurred without any assistance from Europe, where stocks were lower in nearly all Eurozone nations. Meetings scheduled for next week to hammer out bailout details for various countries and banking systems are seen to be troublesome and also weighing on sentiment, which has recently turned negative.
Dow 13,344.97, -128.56 (0.95%)
NASDAQ 3,051.78, -13.24 (0.43%)
S&P 500 1,432.56, -8.92 (0.62%)
NYSE Composite 8,220.62, -58.48 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,763,862,625
NYSE Volume 2,927,658,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2271-3218
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 74-86
WTI crude oil: 91.25, -1.14
Gold: 1,765.10, +0.10
Silver: 34.11, +0.124
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Germany's Merkel Jeered in Athens; Liars, Cheaters, Swindlers and Psychopaths
Markets around the globe took a bit of a beating on Tuesday, just as earnings season is about to get underway in the United States.
The catalyst for today's decline is unknown, though the first major drop in US markets coincided neatly with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Athens, Greece, where she was jeered by thousands, including some dressed in Nazi uniforms, brandishing swastika flags, and gave the Heil, Hitler straight-armed salute that signified the reign of terror that Germany inflicted upon Europe some 70 years ago.
Greeks, their children, and others who fell under Nazi influence have not forgotten. There are still many unhealed wounds in Europe stemming from Nazi occupation of most of the continent and the lives lost during the deadliest of wars.
The demonstration by the Greeks was isolated, but still calls to mind the devastation that befell Europe under Adolf Hitler and his hordes of merciless killers. Of course, America's entry into the World War II signaled the beginning of the end of Hitler's reign of terror. Like all psychopaths, he was exposed and defeated, freeing the continent from the grip of fascism.
Seeing the sarcastic rendering of neo-Naziism could prove a heartening reminder that nearly all liars, cheaters, swindlers and psychopaths are eventually brought to some form of justice, either exposing themselves by their own foolish deeds or brought out from the shadows by those who choose to confront them, deny them and defeat them.
It would be refreshing to think that all the liars and cheaters of the world would be found out and demonstrably punished, though reality teaches that that is not the case. From the scandalous likes of mega-bankers to the small-minded, petty fools who concoct flimsy excuses by which to break deals, or the equally stupid types who hear only what they want to hear and make up stories, put words in other people's mouths and are general abusers, these all should be found out and made to pay dearly for their transgressions.
Failing the exposure of frauds and liars, the best the righteous can hold in their hearts is the thought that the prevaricators, manipulators and others of their ilk have to live with themselves, unforgivable and not forgiven. Their puny lives consist of their own little hell, an isolated, brutal existence that stains the soul and darkens the mind. The psychopaths among us cannot love, cannot feel the pain of others but can only inflict it, fool themselves with false pride, believing that they are somehow better, privileged, never at fault and unapologetic. They are sick, depraved and truly despicable human beings.
To these pariahs, the upstanding, the honest, the happy people of the world say, good riddance. Your personal torment is payback enough for your evil transgressions.
As for the markets, some interesting developments in the A-D line, which was 7-2 in favor of the losers and the new highs - new lows indicator, which flipped over to negative, 49-39 on the NASDAQ, though remained in favor of new highs on the NYSE, 97-26, a much narrower gap than in recent days. Paying close attention to both of these indicators may be investing 101, but they are among the most reliable metrics when change is in the wind, and a correction has been and still is, long overdue.
As earnings season heats up, we'll find out whether the market can sustain itself on the wings of Bernanke's put, unlimited MBS bond purchases, ZIRP and other Keynesian-like manipulations.
Dow 13,473.53, -110.12 (0.81%)
NASDAQ 3,065.02, -47.33 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,441.48, -14.40 (0.99%)
NYSE Composite 8,279.11, -80.02 (0.96%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,646,239,125
NYSE Volume 3,187,523,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1244-4293
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 146-65
WTI crude oil: 92.39, +3.06
Gold: 1,765.00, -10.70
Silver: 33.98, -0.032
The catalyst for today's decline is unknown, though the first major drop in US markets coincided neatly with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Athens, Greece, where she was jeered by thousands, including some dressed in Nazi uniforms, brandishing swastika flags, and gave the Heil, Hitler straight-armed salute that signified the reign of terror that Germany inflicted upon Europe some 70 years ago.
Greeks, their children, and others who fell under Nazi influence have not forgotten. There are still many unhealed wounds in Europe stemming from Nazi occupation of most of the continent and the lives lost during the deadliest of wars.
The demonstration by the Greeks was isolated, but still calls to mind the devastation that befell Europe under Adolf Hitler and his hordes of merciless killers. Of course, America's entry into the World War II signaled the beginning of the end of Hitler's reign of terror. Like all psychopaths, he was exposed and defeated, freeing the continent from the grip of fascism.
Seeing the sarcastic rendering of neo-Naziism could prove a heartening reminder that nearly all liars, cheaters, swindlers and psychopaths are eventually brought to some form of justice, either exposing themselves by their own foolish deeds or brought out from the shadows by those who choose to confront them, deny them and defeat them.
It would be refreshing to think that all the liars and cheaters of the world would be found out and demonstrably punished, though reality teaches that that is not the case. From the scandalous likes of mega-bankers to the small-minded, petty fools who concoct flimsy excuses by which to break deals, or the equally stupid types who hear only what they want to hear and make up stories, put words in other people's mouths and are general abusers, these all should be found out and made to pay dearly for their transgressions.
Failing the exposure of frauds and liars, the best the righteous can hold in their hearts is the thought that the prevaricators, manipulators and others of their ilk have to live with themselves, unforgivable and not forgiven. Their puny lives consist of their own little hell, an isolated, brutal existence that stains the soul and darkens the mind. The psychopaths among us cannot love, cannot feel the pain of others but can only inflict it, fool themselves with false pride, believing that they are somehow better, privileged, never at fault and unapologetic. They are sick, depraved and truly despicable human beings.
To these pariahs, the upstanding, the honest, the happy people of the world say, good riddance. Your personal torment is payback enough for your evil transgressions.
As for the markets, some interesting developments in the A-D line, which was 7-2 in favor of the losers and the new highs - new lows indicator, which flipped over to negative, 49-39 on the NASDAQ, though remained in favor of new highs on the NYSE, 97-26, a much narrower gap than in recent days. Paying close attention to both of these indicators may be investing 101, but they are among the most reliable metrics when change is in the wind, and a correction has been and still is, long overdue.
As earnings season heats up, we'll find out whether the market can sustain itself on the wings of Bernanke's put, unlimited MBS bond purchases, ZIRP and other Keynesian-like manipulations.
Dow 13,473.53, -110.12 (0.81%)
NASDAQ 3,065.02, -47.33 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,441.48, -14.40 (0.99%)
NYSE Composite 8,279.11, -80.02 (0.96%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,646,239,125
NYSE Volume 3,187,523,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1244-4293
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 146-65
WTI crude oil: 92.39, +3.06
Gold: 1,765.00, -10.70
Silver: 33.98, -0.032
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