Hard Times for America and the World; Harder Choices for Americans

Today, we stand at an important crossroad of history.

The United States is about to make one of the greatest strategic blunders of all time, even after lessons should have been learned from military misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq.

With support from congressmen and congresswomen from both sides of the aisle, the current administration is preparing to plunge the United States into another Middle East military conflict, centered on the civil war - that is none of our business and serves no national interest - in Syria.

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

-- Ernest Hemingway

Recently-appointed Secretary of State, John Kerry, kicked off the relentless banging of war drums late Monday afternoon, with a press conference, highlighting America's "undeniable" evidence that the regime of Bashir Assad had used chemical warfare against its own citizens last week.

Kerry, one of the richest politicians in the world thanks to his marriage to Heinz heiress, Teresa Heinz in 1995, spoke of "additional intelligence" which would indicate that Assad was behind the chemical attack that killed hundreds in a Damascus suburb. Estimates had ranged to over 1000, but recent estimates fall between 150 and 355, which is the number of deaths quoted by Doctors without Borders.

Kerry said that this additional evidence would be released in coming days. In the meantime, the US has expressed concern that UN inspectors have not been given unfettered access to the attack site, which is contrary to published reports that the Assad government is complying with UN requests.

Additionally, Kerry made a comment, supposedly directed at Russia, but ostensibly aimed at anyone who believes the chemical attack was a "false flag" engineered by CIA or other undercover agents under direction from the United States, in order to heat up the situation and foment conditions for war in Syria.

Kerry said, "Anyone who can claim that an attack of this staggering scale can be contrived or fabricated needs to check their conscience and their own moral compass." However, Assad has repeatedly and steadfastly denied that his government was behind the attack. Besides, Assad has been seen as winning the civil war against home-grown rebels and outside agitators from the Muslim Brotherhood and groups associated with Al Queda, so there was no direct benefit for the use of chemical warfare, especially since President Obama said months ago that such use would "cross a red line."

In Kerry's "moral compass" statement, in response to words from the Kremlin that the situation mirrored that in Iraq, centered around non-existent weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) that led the US into war 10 years ago, lies the seed of disingenuousness.

In more genteel times, such as prior to 2001, such comments would not even be given an airing, but, since 9/11, and even before, the scenario has been set. Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, knows exactly which button to push in order to riase the ire of the US, and he is pushing them. As far as "strong evidence suggesting" (a term Kerry, and compatriots like Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and Colin Powell like to use) is concerned, there's a recurring pattern emerging out of Washington DC, starting with the Gulf of Tonkin incident which plunged us into the Vietnam War, to the events of 9/11/2001, around which skeptics still abound, to the Iraq invasion based upon what is now called "flawed intelligence," to the present condition in Syria.

It seems like every time the economy is in trouble (read on, there's more of that to come) or the US needs to exploit the resources of a weaker nation (Egypt and Libya come immediately and recently to mind), there's some "event" that brings out the president, the Secretary of State, various members of congress, especially war-mongers John McCain and Lindsay Graham rattling the sabers like medieval warlords.

The US is once again on the same path, with the media lapping it up and spitting it out to the trusting American public. These are truly the hardest of times, and the hardest of decisions face the American public just ahead. Will they continue to support these elected leaders who act more like psychopathic killers than men and women of judgement and compassion, or will Americans stand up and resist, though protests in the recent past have gone for naught because the media has been purchased in whole by the banking-political cartel and will not give protests their proper airing.

It is inconceivable in this day and age of an open internet and mass communications that governments be allowed to run roughshod over a country's constitution and its people, but that is precisely the path America is upon, and there seems to be little to apprehend the runaway war machine.

As for the market reaction to the beating war drums - or, maybe more precisely, the market condition aside from them - stocks have taken a severe beating over the first two sessions of the final week of August, with the NASDAQ in freefall, taking its biggest loss of the year on Tuesday, while the Dow, NYSE Composite and S&P 500 continue to plunge well below their 50-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the WTI oil price has spiked to six-month highs, gold and silver have returned to their traditional status as safe havens and are experiencing a bull market, and the recent rise in interest rates has been temporarily reversed.

While it may be easy to blame "war tensions" for the recent price declines, there's much, much more to the story, including whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut back its bond buying program (tapering) in September, the upcoming budget and debt ceiling debates - also in September and October - a potential collapse of the Italian government, a slowdown in housing, continuing high unemployment and the effects of Obamacare on the entire labor and health care complex.

Indications are already in place that the markets are taking a severe turn, possibly signaling an end to the 54-month-long bull run since March 2009. The Dow has lost nearly 900 points this month alone, ending in the red 13 of its last 17 sessions. The advance-decline line continues to deteriorate, today reaching a level of more than 4:1 losers to winners, and new lows slammed new highs yet again, a continuing, troublesome trend.

Weeks and months ahead could well become a turning point for the country, though there's a strong sentiment that the federal government, deeply in bed with the Wall Street bankers and global elite will continue a glide path to insolvency, decimating the middle class from both sides, by the rapacious practices of the upper class ("one percenters") while keeping the dregs of society quelled with bread and circuses (food stamps and football).

America has reached a greater incline on the slippery slope to serfdom and tyranny. This is a dangerous time, and each American must examine his or her conscience and decide which course of action is best for themselves and their families. These will not be easy decisions, but momentous even in singularity. America is being ripped apart by the powers at the top and there may be no reasonable means of stopping the carnage already underway.

Unfolding events in Syria and the wider Middle East, along with the operational side of the federal government may present the nation with veritable breaking points and an irreversible trajectory.

Dow 14,776.13, -170.33 (1.14%)
NASDAQ 3,578.52, -79.05 (2.16%)
S&P 500 1,630.48, -26.30 (1.59%)
NYSE Composite 9,288.11, -144.40 (1.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,570,917,625
NYSE Volume 3,629,879,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1236-5415
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 43-106
WTI crude oil: 109.01, +3.09
Gold: 1,420.20, +27.10
Silver: 24.65, +0.641

Friday Wrap: New Home Sales Plummet; Stocks Thin Trade Up; Joe Cocker's Response?

Where we are, it's a beautiful summer day. Crickets are chirping, bees buzzing, birds singing, everything is green and red and gold, warm and wonderful.

Speaking of gold, what was that spike just after 10:00 am, all about? Oh, housing. Yes. New home sales fell by 13% in July, due - according to most usually-misinformed experts - mainly to rising interest rates. It was the lowest level of sales in nine months. Additionally, June figures were revised dramatically lower.

Well, OK, so new homes, already overvalued and, like new cars, worth less than what you paid (and will be paying for 30 years) the moment you walk in the front door for the first time, aren't such a bargain anymore. But why does that affect the price of gold? And, concomitantly, why did interest rates dip at the same time?

Maybe because the economy isn't as good as the doves at the Fed would like us to believe. They still think there's a good chance that they can stop stimulating the economy in September, or maybe October, or, or, or... maybe some day, without crashing the market. And that leads some people to run for safety, in things they can actually touch and feel and believe are undervalued, like gold (and silver, which was up big again today), or to bonds, which are traditionally safer investments than stocks (we'll reserve judgement on that one for now).

Stocks were higher at the close today, but, despite today's thinly-traded silliness, the Dow ended the week down 71 points, the NASDAQ (even being closed half the day yesterday) was still up 55 points (bubble?), and the S&P gained 7.62. Pretty much, the week was a non-event. That's three down weeks in a row for the Dow, and a little bit of a break for the S&P and NASDAQ, down the previous two weeks.

As for the Fed, all they need is some solid economic data that shows the US (and by proxy, the global) economy is healing nicely, or "recovering" as they say, but, like a wounded patient, recovery is an empirical event, one which can be seen, not hocus-pocus numerology or fantasy ripped from the headlines. It is a phenomenon which can be observed. The gal with the broken leg takes off the cast and walks again. The guy who had a heart attack can do jumping jacks or go jogging. That's what recovery looks like.

If the US economy was a patient with an illness, it would have been flat on its back, probably on an operating table, back in 2008-09. Since then, it has been pumped full of fluids, fitted with prosthetics and taken from critical condition to "under observation." Take away the fake limbs and it can't walk or feed itself. Cut off the fluids and the patient will atrophy and die.

That's why the Fed can't taper in September. The patient is still too weak and has been propped up by artificial means (QE and ZIRP). Take those away and the patient will relapse, but, the Fed may give it a go anyway, despite strong empiricial evidence that it is the wrong course of action. That's what the Fed does best - hard to believe from people who are supposed to be smart; they usually make bad moves.

In the end, there will be pain, despite or in response to whatever the Federal reserve does. The economy remains weak and may actually be getting weaker. If they start trimming their bond purchases, it most certainly will not improve, prompting what we think may be the appropriate response for all of us, courtesy of Joe Cocker, from Woodstock, way, way, way back in 1969:



Dow 15,010.36, +46.62 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 3,657.79, +19.08 (0.52%)
S&P 500 1,663.47, +6.51 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 9,474.75, +48.97 (0.52%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,453,646,250
NYSE Volume 2,586,104,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4141-2401
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 156-52
WTI crude oil: 106.42, +1.39
Gold: 1,395.80, +25.00
Silver: 23.74, +0.703

FUBAR: The Day NASDAQ Went Dark

Shortly after noon, at about 12:20 pm EDT, the NASDAQ shut down trading operations. There would be no trading of any "securities" (ha, ha, funny word) on the NASDAQ platform until further notice.

Some traders were visibly asleep.

From a public relations perspective, the NASDAQ itself was officially quiet during the outage, which turned out to be not much of a big deal. Stocks actually went higher after the NAZ re-opened at 3:25 pm ET, with just 35 minutes left in the session. It was learned that the President was informed of the shutdown while he was three-putting the eighth hole at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY.

The day ended in typical dead-cat bounce fashion, with a slight selloff into the close, but stocks generally higher, ending a six-day losing streak for the Dow, but ushering in an era of infrastructure breakdown with a three-hour closure of the NASDAQ.

And you want your money - your investments for your future, for retirement - in these markets?

America is becoming a third world nation.

Welcome to Cameroon, my friends.

Dow 14,963.74, +66.19 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 3,638.71, +38.92 (1.08%)
S&P 500 1,656.96, +14.16 (0.86%)
NYSE Composite 9,425.04, +85.66 (0.92%)
NASDAQ Volume 884,157,625
NYSE Volume 2,573,636,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5235-1326
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 144-93
WTI crude oil: 105.03, +1.18
Gold: 1,370.80. 0.70
Silver: 23.04, +0.072

Dow Down 6th Straight Session; Bummer for 5% of Population

Consider this salient factoid (and question its validity): Five percent of the US population owns 82% of all common stock.

So, with that in mind, who - besides the employees of the major corporate entities in this country (a big number) - cares?

It might be worth suggesting that a 5-10-15-20% pullback in stocks would be a healthy development, bringing down the elite to more moderate levels.

This is sophistry, of course. A diminution in the relative income or net worth of the wealthiest amongst us would surely trickle down to those not quite rich, the middle class and eventually the bottom income levels.

Yes. Those nearest the gutter would be dragged down into it and die. Others would take their places. Those in the middle would become less fortunate (say goodbye to paying U of Michigan $52,000 a year for tuition, room and board). Those in the upper tiers would eat strip steaks instead of filet mignon and the top five percent would drive their Mercedes or Lexus or Maserati a little less often.

This is all very relative; the deciding factors being, most prominently, not how much you're worth or how much you make, but what you can be productive with, what your knowledge and skills are and how much you spend.

Wall Street is a very cockeyed place, full of people who think they know better how to manage other people's money than those people themselves. For an alternative perspective, go to a farm, where a person's value is derived from utility, rather than fantasy.

Dow 14,897.55, -105.44 (0.70%)
NASDAQ 3,599.79, -13.80 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,642.80, -9.55 (0.58%)
NYSE Composite 9,339.37, -82.19 (0.87%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,401,692,625
NYSE Volume 3,306,747,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1871-4677
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 83-178
WTI crude oil: 103.85, -1.26
Gold: 1,370.10, -2.50
Silver: 22.96, -0.108

Dow Fades Into Close for 5th Straight Losing Session

Issues persist in global financial markets and investors are beginning to shift assets back into fixed income, since yields are rising and should continue to do so, though chances that the Fed will begin tapering in September appear to be diminishing as economic data and corporate reports are not suggestive of a strengthening economy.

The Dow, which, along with the other major indices, was positive all session long, finally succumbed to selling pressure in the final minutes of trading, ending the day with a minor loss, though still the fifth straight session in the red.

What's not being talked about much is where the Dow Industrials currently are settled, well below the 50-day moving average (roughly 15,275) and in danger of sparking another rout in stocks. Additionally, Dow stocks are largely among the best dividend-payers, just the kind of risk asset that investors are shunning, with interest rates on the rise and fixed income carrying much less perceived risk than even blue chip stocks.

The Dow components aren't exactly going to be sold off in wholesale fashion - there's too many diversified investors in them - but they have obviously been under pressure since the start of August, despite Fed incantations and deliberations over QE tapering beginning sometime in the near future.

For gambling types, the biggest question is whether the Fed will actually begin tapering its bond-buying in September, or, at some later date. Some suggest that the economy is so weak, and the Fed terrified of causing a market panic, that tapering will not and cannot occur in the current environment. The secondary issue of by how much the Fed will taper is also in play. Being that the Fed is now so trapped and dovish, the tapering might be an inconsequential number, like $10 billion, reducing their total bond purchases to $75 billion a month, still an enormous liquidity lift.

In such a case, wherein the Fed reduces QE by a mere $10 billion a month, in either September or October, and then continues to cut down on bond purchases at a rate of around $10 billion a month every two to three months, would probably be enough to rattle markets a bit without causing a correction or crash. Of course, the US and global economies are currently in such a weakened state that markets may crash and burn on their own, despite what the Fed and other central banks conspire in their rigging.

The outlook remains the same, with the bias toward the downside. September, with the Federal government politicians back from their extended, annual August recess, is shaping up to be momentous, what with budget negotiations and an expected fight over raising the debt ceiling again, with the outlier that the Republican Tea Partiers may be so inclined as to stall negotiations on both issues to a point at which the government is shut down. On top of the already-expanding sequester, these kind of childish hissy fits from our political elite might be enough to topple the markets into bear territory.

It's an eventuality, as the bull market is approaching the 54-month mark, which it will reach on September 9. The week of September 8-15 figures to be dramatic, with the anniversary of 9/11 and expected hijinks in the corridors of power.

One thing is for sure: the housing market is already under stress and, unless interest rates suddenly reverse course (unlikely), the so-called recovery in housing is over, dead and done. Real estate prices nationwide should experience a fairly sharp pullback over the next three to 12 months, because there are not enough qualified purchasers out there, interest rates are driving up the cost of buying and carrying a mortgage, and, the number of homes still held off the market by the banks continues to be an enormous, unseen force driving down real estate. Bargains are out there, but one has to look hard and long for the right ones at the right entry price. This is not a market for bold speculation, but rather for considered, strategic purchasing of the right property, be it for housing, farming or simply to escape the madness which is headed toward everyone within 10 miles of a major population center.

Major shifts in the economies of billions of people are underway and will play out over the next five to seven years, transforming the economic landscape beyond what most people can imagine.

Dow 15,002.99, -7.75 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 3,613.59, +24.50 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,652.35, +6.29 (0.38%)
NYSE Composite 9,421.56, +35.67 (0.38%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,285,024,000
NYSE Volume 3,266,316,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4827-1777
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 75-316
WTI crude oil: 104.96, -2.14
Gold: 1,372.60, +6.90
Silver: 23.07, -0.095