The Dow added more than 250 points over the past two days and the NASDAQ hit fresh 13-year highs, meaning only one thing: we're officially in vapor-land as S&P equity trading volume hits fresh 15-year lows.
Meanwhile, the Syria story gets more and more confusing and confounding, the President's address tonight at 9:00 pm EDT (we do hope he'll be on time for once) probably just adding more layers of confusion to this twisted international story presaging World War III, which is bound to happen anyway, one way or another, the crux of the argument being Iran's nuclear ambitions and the US (and Israel's) attempts to defuse them.
So, how's that 401K looking? Pretty peachy, huh? Well, that's until the authorities come to confiscate it as happened in Poland last week.
A major financial disruption is just weeks away, be it the default of Deutsche Bank on some of their massive, unregulated CDS, Italian bank defaults or maybe, just maybe a big resounding thud from the likes of JP Morgan, or, our favorite, Bank of America.
The system is completely stressed out, trading on razor-thin volume while Peace President O-Bomber gets an itchy finger over Syria and a false-flag operation that hasn't convinced anybody of anything. What could possibly go wrong?
Russia's Vladimir Putin is playing Obama like a banjo, plucking his strings with the talent of a virtuoso. Other outlets have compared the recent developments over Syria as Putin playing chess while OBozo struggles with checkers.
We think the analogy is apropos. The US government will soon be on its knees, begging forgiveness from a broken-hearted world and US population. There will be no mercy given to the betrayers of the constitution.
And, by the way, the NSA is FOS.
Dow 15,191.06, +127.94 (0.85%)
Nasdaq 3,729.02, +22.84 (0.62%)
S&P 500 1,683.99, +12.28 (0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 2.96%, +0.06
NYSE Volume 3,911,199,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,767,686,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4249-2265
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 403-52
WTI crude oil: 107.39, -2.13
Gold: 1,364.00, -22.70
Silver: 23.02, -0.701
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Friday, September 6, 2013
NFP Jobs Data Disappoints; Fed-Taper in Question; Liesman's Big Lie
Following an early-session smack-down and a subsequent rally, stocks came right back to terra firma at the close, ending the session essentially flat.
Non-farm payroll data and Middle east posturing were the main catalysts for the early decline, the rally had little catalyst othe than empty reassurances from the president, or Bomber-in-Chief, who, after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that his nation would support and defend Syria in the face of any attacks, promised, once again, that strikes against Syria would be measured and brief.
Mr. Obama speaks as if he's planning a family outing of some sort rather than an act of war against a sovereign nation and his posturing and promising is nauseating, misguided and insincere. While the congress dithers over whether to grant him authority - as it must under the War Powers Act - to bomb Syria, a nation that poses no imminent threat to US interests, the president continues to tiptoe toward conflict, one which is likely to inflame parties in an already-tense region.
Market reactions to the president and congress are equally superfluous and without much forethought. To date, the US has done nothing but threaten Syria. If it ever comes to actual bombing, then the market will make up its mind as to whether such actions have consequences for stocks and bonds.
The other contributing factor to today's rocky trade was the August Non-Farm Payroll report which showed the US gaining 169,000 new jobs, well below consensus, and revising June and July data lower. The BLS also advised that the labor force participation rate had fallen again, to 63.2%, a number not seen since 1978, thirty-five years ago.
This item in the BLS calculus continues to plunge, and many, including CNBC's Chief Economist, Steve Liesman, cite the aging baby-boomers retiring as the main culprit, though other economists disagree, and heartily so. The number usually thrown about is that 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every day, though, if that were true, there would be something on the order of 300,000 jobs available every month and the labor condition would be booming, but those numbers are not showing up in the NFP reports.
A few of the prominent factors contributing to the lower participation rate are: 1) the coming of Obamacare, which is prompting more and more employers to hire only part-time workers; 2) a reluctance by companies large and small to replace workers lost through attrition or layoffs due to uncertainty in the economy or outright slowdown; 3) the ease by which individuals can qualify for public relief programs such as unemployment insurance, welfare or disability and the generosity of those programs, and; 4) a thriving underground economy of self-employed or off-the-books workers who simply aren't part of the statistical sample. It's been long known that government statistics are wildly faulty and unreliable, and the labor stats simply don't account for the literally millions of Americans who are making ends meet by working around, though or otherwise outside the system, a system which sucks the lifeblood, via taxation and regulation, out of both employers and workers.
The government's statistics may be relied upon by Wall Street investors, but the logic and realism of their assumptions is faulty at best and downright improper at worst. Americans have always found means to an end, and, when the government - all all levels - exerts undue, stifling restrictions upon the citizenry, the people quietly move on without them. Beating back the government by hook or by crook is an American tradition and it will remain that way, so long as people in power feel the necessity to invade every aspect of a citizen's life.
Dow 14,922.50, -14.98 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 3,660.01, +1.23 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,655.17, +0.09 (0.01%)
NYSE Composite 9,439.66, +19.31 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,668,595,250
NYSE Volume 3,384,952,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3718-2834
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 206-54
WTI crude oil: 110.53, +2.16
Gold: 1,386.50, +13.50
Silver: 23.89, +0.636
Non-farm payroll data and Middle east posturing were the main catalysts for the early decline, the rally had little catalyst othe than empty reassurances from the president, or Bomber-in-Chief, who, after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that his nation would support and defend Syria in the face of any attacks, promised, once again, that strikes against Syria would be measured and brief.
Mr. Obama speaks as if he's planning a family outing of some sort rather than an act of war against a sovereign nation and his posturing and promising is nauseating, misguided and insincere. While the congress dithers over whether to grant him authority - as it must under the War Powers Act - to bomb Syria, a nation that poses no imminent threat to US interests, the president continues to tiptoe toward conflict, one which is likely to inflame parties in an already-tense region.
Market reactions to the president and congress are equally superfluous and without much forethought. To date, the US has done nothing but threaten Syria. If it ever comes to actual bombing, then the market will make up its mind as to whether such actions have consequences for stocks and bonds.
The other contributing factor to today's rocky trade was the August Non-Farm Payroll report which showed the US gaining 169,000 new jobs, well below consensus, and revising June and July data lower. The BLS also advised that the labor force participation rate had fallen again, to 63.2%, a number not seen since 1978, thirty-five years ago.
This item in the BLS calculus continues to plunge, and many, including CNBC's Chief Economist, Steve Liesman, cite the aging baby-boomers retiring as the main culprit, though other economists disagree, and heartily so. The number usually thrown about is that 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every day, though, if that were true, there would be something on the order of 300,000 jobs available every month and the labor condition would be booming, but those numbers are not showing up in the NFP reports.
A few of the prominent factors contributing to the lower participation rate are: 1) the coming of Obamacare, which is prompting more and more employers to hire only part-time workers; 2) a reluctance by companies large and small to replace workers lost through attrition or layoffs due to uncertainty in the economy or outright slowdown; 3) the ease by which individuals can qualify for public relief programs such as unemployment insurance, welfare or disability and the generosity of those programs, and; 4) a thriving underground economy of self-employed or off-the-books workers who simply aren't part of the statistical sample. It's been long known that government statistics are wildly faulty and unreliable, and the labor stats simply don't account for the literally millions of Americans who are making ends meet by working around, though or otherwise outside the system, a system which sucks the lifeblood, via taxation and regulation, out of both employers and workers.
The government's statistics may be relied upon by Wall Street investors, but the logic and realism of their assumptions is faulty at best and downright improper at worst. Americans have always found means to an end, and, when the government - all all levels - exerts undue, stifling restrictions upon the citizenry, the people quietly move on without them. Beating back the government by hook or by crook is an American tradition and it will remain that way, so long as people in power feel the necessity to invade every aspect of a citizen's life.
Dow 14,922.50, -14.98 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 3,660.01, +1.23 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,655.17, +0.09 (0.01%)
NYSE Composite 9,439.66, +19.31 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,668,595,250
NYSE Volume 3,384,952,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3718-2834
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 206-54
WTI crude oil: 110.53, +2.16
Gold: 1,386.50, +13.50
Silver: 23.89, +0.636
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Slow Day for Stocks
A Jewish holiday (Rosh Hashana), benign economic news and low volume all contributed to one of the weakest sessions of the year on the major markets.
ADP employment for August came in at 176,000 and initial unemployment claims were 323K in the most recent reporting period, setting up for the expected announcement of tapering by the Fed at their September 17-18 FOMC meeting.
The Dow traded in a skinny, 64-point range. The 10-year note hit 2.99%, the highest yield since July, 2011.
Dow 14,937.48, +6.61 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 3,658.78, +9.74 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,655.08, +2.00 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 9,420.41, +20.17 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,510,979,125
NYSE Volume 3,171,252,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3485-3084
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 206-66
WTI crude oil: 108.37, +1.14
Gold: 1,373.00, -17.00
Silver: 23.26, -0.16
ADP employment for August came in at 176,000 and initial unemployment claims were 323K in the most recent reporting period, setting up for the expected announcement of tapering by the Fed at their September 17-18 FOMC meeting.
The Dow traded in a skinny, 64-point range. The 10-year note hit 2.99%, the highest yield since July, 2011.
Dow 14,937.48, +6.61 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 3,658.78, +9.74 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,655.08, +2.00 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 9,420.41, +20.17 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,510,979,125
NYSE Volume 3,171,252,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3485-3084
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 206-66
WTI crude oil: 108.37, +1.14
Gold: 1,373.00, -17.00
Silver: 23.26, -0.16
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Drums of War Bring Out the Traders
It didn't take long for Wall Street professionals to get over their fear of war in the Middle East, particularly Syria.
In fact, it took less than one day for the drumbeats of potential warfare to bring out the animal spirits and send stocks soaring.
Unfortunately, volume is still in the "new normal" range of moderate to dismal, and the Dow stopped ominously short of the magic 15,000 mark, a sign that there's still a healthy level of skepticism over the future of American empire.
Today's activity was really nothing of great consequence. Most traders are waiting until Friday's non-farm payroll report before the bell to establish positions or head for the hills. It's a very undecided market presently and that doesn't seem to want to change, especially considering the headwinds of the debt ceiling and Fed tapering on the agenda later in the month.
This little two-day rally did reverse the overall trend, for now, and the major indices are sitting close to key levels of resistance, though the Dow and S&P are still stuck below their 50-day moving averages.
Commodities acted very strangely, with significant losses in oil, gold and silver.
Dow 14,930.87, +96.91 (0.65%)
NASDAQ 3,649.04, +36.43 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,653.08, +13.31 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 9,400.20, +66.71 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,812,184,125
NYSE Volume 3,516,943,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4510-2082
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 149-57
WTI crude oil: 107.23, -1.31
Gold: 1,390.00, -22.00
Silver: 23.42, -1.014
In fact, it took less than one day for the drumbeats of potential warfare to bring out the animal spirits and send stocks soaring.
Unfortunately, volume is still in the "new normal" range of moderate to dismal, and the Dow stopped ominously short of the magic 15,000 mark, a sign that there's still a healthy level of skepticism over the future of American empire.
Today's activity was really nothing of great consequence. Most traders are waiting until Friday's non-farm payroll report before the bell to establish positions or head for the hills. It's a very undecided market presently and that doesn't seem to want to change, especially considering the headwinds of the debt ceiling and Fed tapering on the agenda later in the month.
This little two-day rally did reverse the overall trend, for now, and the major indices are sitting close to key levels of resistance, though the Dow and S&P are still stuck below their 50-day moving averages.
Commodities acted very strangely, with significant losses in oil, gold and silver.
Dow 14,930.87, +96.91 (0.65%)
NASDAQ 3,649.04, +36.43 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,653.08, +13.31 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 9,400.20, +66.71 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,812,184,125
NYSE Volume 3,516,943,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4510-2082
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 149-57
WTI crude oil: 107.23, -1.31
Gold: 1,390.00, -22.00
Silver: 23.42, -1.014
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Boehner, Pelosi Side with O'Bomber, Tank Markets
This past Friday, nearly the entire civilized world believed that US bombs would be falling on Syria over the weekend.
Abruptly, n Saturday, the president, in a true CYA moment, decided to get authorization from congress, which, according to our constitution (remember, we still have one, if in name only), is a necessity in order to attack any entity that does not pose a serious, immediate threat to the nation, and Syria easily qualifies.
With the congress winding down its month-long vacation (somebody remind us why are we paying them), a vote on the matter of whether or not to use offensive weapons against Syria couldn't occur much before September 9, the date upon which congress will officially resume to be in session. Thus, the inevitable bombing and unofficial start to World War III would have to wait.
On Tuesday, the house leadership of both parties - Nancy Peolosi and John Boehner - were back on the Hill, each making statements in support of the Bomber-in-Chief's proposal to use force against Syria.
So, if one is to believe in what the tea-leaves tell us, the president will get his authorization, despite some grandstanding by Tea Party members on the right and anti-war types on the left. Never mind that only nine percent of Americans support any kind of military action against Syria. The one-party rulers in Washington will have their way and theirs is the way of war.
Wall Street didn't take the news kindly. Up sharply early on, thinking that maybe, possibly, congress would not give the president the green light, markets did an about-face after the Boehner/Pelosi comments and stayed down for the remainder of the session. Everybody put away their "Dow 15,000!" hats and got back to thinking about how spiked oil and gas prices might negatively affect the economy, how bombing a nation essentially tearing itself apart in a civil war would benefit US interests, and how this might weigh on decisions surrounding the budget, the debt ceiling and whether the Fed would taper its bond-buying at its next meeting (Sept. 17-18).
With that, traders wiped 100 points off the Dow, albeit on volume that was hardly indicative of a back-to-work mentality. Come to think of it, since Obamacare is making work in America largely a part-time experience, maybe lower volume and shorter trading sessions might be just the ticket.
Dow 14,833.96, +23.65 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 3,612.61, +22.74 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,639.77, +6.80 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite 9,333.50, +62.84 (0.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,568,192,750.00
NYSE Volume 4,111,344,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4025-2691
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 130-89
WTI crude oil: 108.54, +0.89
Gold: 1,412.00, +15.90
Silver: 24.43, +0.916
Abruptly, n Saturday, the president, in a true CYA moment, decided to get authorization from congress, which, according to our constitution (remember, we still have one, if in name only), is a necessity in order to attack any entity that does not pose a serious, immediate threat to the nation, and Syria easily qualifies.
With the congress winding down its month-long vacation (somebody remind us why are we paying them), a vote on the matter of whether or not to use offensive weapons against Syria couldn't occur much before September 9, the date upon which congress will officially resume to be in session. Thus, the inevitable bombing and unofficial start to World War III would have to wait.
On Tuesday, the house leadership of both parties - Nancy Peolosi and John Boehner - were back on the Hill, each making statements in support of the Bomber-in-Chief's proposal to use force against Syria.
So, if one is to believe in what the tea-leaves tell us, the president will get his authorization, despite some grandstanding by Tea Party members on the right and anti-war types on the left. Never mind that only nine percent of Americans support any kind of military action against Syria. The one-party rulers in Washington will have their way and theirs is the way of war.
Wall Street didn't take the news kindly. Up sharply early on, thinking that maybe, possibly, congress would not give the president the green light, markets did an about-face after the Boehner/Pelosi comments and stayed down for the remainder of the session. Everybody put away their "Dow 15,000!" hats and got back to thinking about how spiked oil and gas prices might negatively affect the economy, how bombing a nation essentially tearing itself apart in a civil war would benefit US interests, and how this might weigh on decisions surrounding the budget, the debt ceiling and whether the Fed would taper its bond-buying at its next meeting (Sept. 17-18).
With that, traders wiped 100 points off the Dow, albeit on volume that was hardly indicative of a back-to-work mentality. Come to think of it, since Obamacare is making work in America largely a part-time experience, maybe lower volume and shorter trading sessions might be just the ticket.
Dow 14,833.96, +23.65 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 3,612.61, +22.74 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,639.77, +6.80 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite 9,333.50, +62.84 (0.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,568,192,750.00
NYSE Volume 4,111,344,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4025-2691
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 130-89
WTI crude oil: 108.54, +0.89
Gold: 1,412.00, +15.90
Silver: 24.43, +0.916
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