Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Silver Pops Above $17/oz.; Intel Slashes 11,000 Jobs; Markets Steady

...and the beat goes on.

How long will it take before the majority of traders realize they've been fed a pack of lies in non-GAAP earnings reports, loaded with non-recurring, one-time charges, which oddly keep cropping up every other quarter, and profits that are the result of stock buybacks (fewer shares equals higher EPS)?

For most, the answer is "too long." Since Wall Street can only make money if stocks appear to be good investments - and that concept is quickly fleeing the coop - and have the confidence of investors, the con game of lowered expectations and "beats" will keep the dancers dancing well past midnight and into the wee hours of the morning.

When the party does finally end, there are going to be a lot of long faces, hung-over losers and poor explanations for why the market simply didn't keep going up forever and ever and ever. Central bankers the world over will be falling over each other before that happens, though, because where goes Wall Street, so goes central bank - and thus, fiat money - credibility, and that must be maintained at all costs, which just might include printing trillions and trillions more dollars, euros and yen before the money finds its justifiable price, that being the cost of ink on paper, or, essentially, nothing.

So, when pensioners find their nest eggs shattered and barren, and are being told that the paper promises are not going to be honored, it will be too late for the masses.

Only those free of debt, with some reasonable amount of hard assets - land, building, machinery, tools, art, gemstones, silver, and gold - will be whole and beholding to nobody. The rest will have to fend for themselves and their families as best as they can.

It is against this backdrop that the recent rise in the value of silver becomes important. Gold's little brother has risen from an even $14/ounce to close today just under 17 dollars an ounce, making it the best-performing asset of the year, passing by gold in the process.

There are numerous reasons that silver has been set afire in recent days. Less than a week ago, Deustche Bank agreed to settle lawsuits claiming the bank had engaged in price manipulation of silver as well as gold. This admission really put the afterburners to an already hopped-up commodity. Gold has been slower to respond, likely because silver had been manipulated much lower for much longer.

Traditionally, silver had been valued in relation to gold at anywhere from 16 to 20 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. Earlier this year, the gold:silver ratio screamed above 80, signifying that silver was likely undervalued by a magnitude of four. In other words, the true value of silver must come back to historical norms, either by the price of gold falling dramatically, or the price of silver rising astronomically (i.e., silver, at a 16:1 ratio to gold, would be selling for $78/ounce, with gold at $1250, where it currently resides).

What is a more plausible outcome is that - and this process could take several years, maybe as many as ten - both gold and silver will rise, though silver will rise at a much faster pace, eventually coming in line at 20:1 per ounce of gold. Both precious metals will see enormous advances in coming years as currencies depreciate and eventually die, paramount among them the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and the US Dollar, since the currencies of the most developed nations are also the most at risk, due to many factors, not the least of which being the excessive levels of debt held by the general public and government.

The Fed, the ECB and the BOJ will print to infinity, eventually bankrupting their counties and their currencies. Holders of gold and silver will be rewarded for both their vision and their patience.

The process has begun, but only those willing to hold an asset that offers no interest or rate of return, but also does not carry any counter-party risk, will prosper. Dollars, Yen and Euro will eventually devalue and finally default.

In the words of James Pierpont (J.P.) Morgan, spoken in 1912, a year before he helped launch the Federal Reserve:

Gold is Money. Everything Else is Credit.

Today's closing figures:
S&P 500: 2,100.80, +6.46 (0.31%)
Dow: 18,053.60, +49.44 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,940.33, -19.69 (0.40%)

Crude Oil 42.46 +3.08% Gold 1,251.80 +1.36% EUR/USD 1.1359 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +0.56% Corn 383.50 +0.66% Copper 2.23 +2.84% Silver 16.96 +4.35% Natural Gas 2.09 +7.63% Russell 2000 1,140.23 +0.08% VIX 13.24 -0.82% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4394 +0.82% USD/JPY 109.1975 +0.33%

Monday, April 18, 2016

Dow Tops 18,000. Why?

Just guessing, but the last time the Dow was trading at or above 18,000 was sometime in the summer of 2015, probably prior to August.

Be that as it may, having the Dow trading at the level it was nine months ago means that something must have been amiss, because, certainly, the indices are always rising, aren't they?

The number 18,000 poses more questions than answers, to which Money Daily offers none, only more questions as to the sustainability of such an awesome, inspired number, fully without any kind of fundamental support, since the quality of corporate earnings has been disintegrating at an astonishing rate.

Not only that, but the obfuscation and sheer audacity of the lies and pro forma earnings releases (as opposed to the traditionally well-favored GAAP) leads one to believe that the market has lost all bearings and is about to crash upon some unseen shoals while the cruiser's captain is nodded out, asleep at the wheel.

Alas, the market has no captain, as contrary to the desires of the Janet Yellens, Mario Draghis or even George Soroses (some kind of disease, there) of the world might think otherwise.

No, the market is a mechanism of many moving parts, and, being such, can be wound to whatever pulsation or amplitude any broken parts may render it. Make no mistake, there are many broken parts to the market, especially when it comes to equity markets, where valuations have been so absurdly distorted as to become meaningless in a value-oriented frame of mind.

Nevertheless, here we are, so break out the party hats?

Next up: the NASDAQ blasts through the 5,000 barrier.

Really?
S&P 500: 2,094.34, +13.61 (0.65%)
Dow: 18,004.16, +106.70 (0.60%)
NASDAQ: 4,960.02, +21.80 (0.44%)

Crude Oil 41.28 -1.03% Gold 1,230.30 -0.38% EUR/USD 1.1310 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.77 +1.20% Corn 380.50 -0.13% Copper 2.16 -0.02% Silver 16.19 -0.36% Natural Gas 1.94 +1.84% Russell 2000 1,139.28 +0.74% VIX 13.35 -1.98% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4290 +0.10% USD/JPY 109.1170 +0.26%

Friday, April 15, 2016

It's TRUE: Crooked Deutsche Bank Agrees to Settle Silver/Gold Manipulation Lawsuits

Stocks zig-zagged their way through options expiry, drooping in the morning and early afternoon, but gaining a little ground in late trading, eventually closing marginally in the red, but strongly higher for the week.

The major indices had a banner week, with the averages closing higher for the seventh time in the last nine weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rocketed nearly 2500 points in just about two months of trading. It's an impressive run, though likely not to be sustainable. At the very least, it's all just paper, which can be blown away on a whim.

For the week:
Dow: +320.36 (1.82%)
S&P 500: +33.11 (1.62%)
NASDAQ: +87.53 (1.80%)

On the day:
S&P 500: 2,080.69, -2.09 (0.10%)
Dow: 17,897.25, -29.18 (0.16%)
NASDAQ: 4,938.22, -7.67 (0.16%)

Crude Oil 40.36 -2.75% Gold 1,235.90 +0.77% EUR/USD 1.1284 +0.18% 10-Yr Bond 1.75 -1.63% Corn 380.00 +1.60% Copper 2.15 -0.94% Silver 16.26 +0.57% Natural Gas 1.91 -3.25% Russell 2000 1,130.62 +0.18% VIX 13.84 +0.87% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4198 +0.33% USD/JPY 108.7350 -0.66%

More important news follows...

While this news may be rather stunning to the average investor, those who don't own any silver and/or gold, Deutsche Bank agreed to settle litigation accusing it and other banks of manipulating the price of gold and silver, to the detriment of investors worldwide.

Terms were not disclosed, but this much we now know: banks are crooks, plain and simple. The world's largest banks have been found guilty of manipulating everything from mortgages to libor to interest rates to oil prices.

The sad part about this story is that while Deustche Bank will pay a fine (which will be a fraction of what they made by rigging the markets for themselves and friends), and is supposed to turn evidence on the other banks accused of collusion with them in the rigging, not a single trader or executive will face criminal charges.

Don't believe it? Try reading and going through the myrid links in this article posted on Zero Hedge.

That's why nobody trades in the stock market anymore, except for hedge funds, mutual and pension fund managers and others with inside information. It's all rigged, and it's been that way for a long time - maybe 20 years - but now it is worse than ever.

Money Daily has repeatedly warned that there hasn't been a mechanism for price discovery since the bank bailouts of 2009, and there sure aren't now. How much should you pay for a whole chicken? A used car? A house?

With markets routinely monopolized and manipulated by a criminal cartel, with the blessing of the world's central banks, how can anyone know what is fair value.

This is exactly why Money Daily often has little comment on markets or the commentary is decidedly of a negative tone. Markets are all rigged by players with a lot more money and information than the average investor. It's all a big con game. The only true stores of value are gold, silver and certain real estate, especially farm land. At least, when everything goes belly up, you can grow your own food and feed your family.

Good luck.

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Stocks Topped Out Again? Bank Earnings A Mixed Picture

After racking up impressive gains the first three days of the week, stocks took Thursday off, trading in a narrow range that may suggest to some that another topping pattern is forming.

The Dow, in particular, is retesting the highs from the end of October, when the index failed at a run to 18,000, and began a slow descent that accelerated in January to near full-blown panic.

As for the S&P, it remains just above water for the year, although analysts have repeatedly stressed the area of 2080-2090 as a key resistance level.

With another FOMC meeting in less than than two weeks (April 26-27), traders may be suffering from a case of frayed nerves, though considering the dovish tone coming from Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, any fears of a rate hike before June - at the earliest - seem unfounded.

Bank stocks have done well, with JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) both reporting earnings in line or above estimates, though revenues have fallen short for both firms.

Wells Fargo also reported before the open on Thursday, citing loan loss reserves in their energy portfolio putting a damper on first quarter profits. That was perhaps the souring tone the street did not expect nor want to hear.

Citigroup reports prior to the opening bell on Friday, looking for 1.03 per share for the quarter.

S&P 500: 2,082.78, +0.36 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,926.43, +18.15 (0.10%)
NASDAQ: 4,945.89, -1.53 (0.03%)

Crude Oil 41.43 -0.79% Gold 1,229.30 -1.52% EUR/USD 1.1265 -0.07% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +1.08% Corn 373.50 0.00% Copper 2.17 0.00% Silver 16.18 -0.86% Natural Gas 1.96 -3.83% Russell 2000 1,128.59 -0.12% VIX 13.72 -0.87% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4154 -0.37% USD/JPY 109.4000 +0.10%

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Retail Sales, Inventory, PPI Fall; Stocks Full Steam Ahead

Events of the day no longer matter, as we are clearly in the final stages of a global financial catastrophe, one which few will see coming, though signs of malaise and deconstruction are everywhere.

On the day, March retail sales were reported to be off by 0.3%, that being a negative, as opposed to a positive, which was expected. Despite the obvious collapse of the consumer pocketbook, stocks disregarded the data - as per usual - and marched higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average arching towards the magic 18,000 mark, a number that has not been seen on Wall Street or anywhere since mid-July of last year.

PPI, an inaccurate guide to wholesale inflation, fell 0.1%, on expectations of a rise of 0.3%, another blow to the Fed's inflation targeting of two percent, and yet another arrow in the quiver of the punchy speculators who view all bad economic news as good.

Business inventories for February also fell, by 0.1%, a result of over-ramping holiday buying without the resultant sales. Businesses find themselves largely overstocked, and have no need to build inventories, especially at a time in which the global economy is either not growing at all or actually contracting.

Meanwhile, anecdotal reports of falling food prices are rafting throughout the US economy. One consumer reported a dozen eggs at $1.50, when they were $3.00 or more just six months ago, due largely to a 2015 bird flu which decimated the nation's chicken population.

Therein lies the conundrum: with gas prices low, food prices falling, consumers are still finding difficulty opening their wallets and spending. Primary culprits include excessive taxation, health care (Obamacare), college tuition, and high housing costs, be they either renting or owning, and, since making ends meet via interest on savings has become a relic of a bygone era, people are also paying down debt.

It doesn't matter to Wall Street. Main Street could shrivel up and die - which, in many smaller cities it already has - and stocks would still enjoy the speculative splendor of negligible interest rates.

Splurge, baby, splurge.

DJIA: 17,908.28, +187.03
S&P 500: 2,082.42, +20.70
NASDAQ: 4,947.42, +75.33

Crude Oil 41.55 -1.47% Gold 1,244.10 -1.33% EUR/USD 1.1277 -0.95% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 -1.07% Corn 373.75 +3.03% Copper 2.17 +1.14% Silver 16.24 +0.08% Natural Gas 2.04 +1.80% Russell 2000 1,129.93 +2.19% VIX 13.84 -6.80% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4206 -0.43% USD/JPY 109.3075 +0.67%