It's getting more and more difficult to keep a straight face when discussing the so-called "markets," when they only react to the edicts and pronouncements from the Federal Reserve.
Maybe things are just better nowadays, with lower profits for the S&P 500 companies, but higher share prices. Something is going to give. Some day. Maybe.
Hump Day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,526.14, -11.98 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ
5,283.93, +8.02 (0.15%)
S&P 500
2,186.16, -0.32 (-0.01%)
^NYA
NYSE Composite
10,890.01, -0.78 (-0.01%)
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
Tuesday, September 6, 2016
If It Isn't Already, The Stock Market Should Be Rigged
Seriously, shouldn't stocks just go higher all the time given that the central bank has everybody's backs?
Makes sense if you are invested in establishment slave-labor and tax policies that have crippled the middle class.
After Labor Day Bonanza (stocks were down early, but we can't have that):
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,538.12, +46.16 (0.25%)
NASDAQ
5,275.91, +26.01 (0.50%)
S&P 500
2,186.48, +6.50 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite
10,891.15, +34.23 (0.32)
Makes sense if you are invested in establishment slave-labor and tax policies that have crippled the middle class.
After Labor Day Bonanza (stocks were down early, but we can't have that):
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,538.12, +46.16 (0.25%)
NASDAQ
5,275.91, +26.01 (0.50%)
S&P 500
2,186.48, +6.50 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite
10,891.15, +34.23 (0.32)
Saturday, September 3, 2016
August Jobs Report Disappoints, Traders Euphoric
The headline says what's so weird about markets in the central banking age: Bad news is good news.
In this instance, the August non-farm payroll report delivered only 151,000 net new jobs when expectations were for 180,000.
While it wasn't a huge miss, and, the BLS NFP report is one of the most conflated, untrustworthy, fragile and ultimately revisionist data points delivered to markets every month, it still holds water with the investing class.
The point taken here is that since there seems to be not enough jobs created to keep the economy humming along at anything more than a 1-1.5% growth rate, the Federal Reserve will not have any good reason to raise rates at their next meeting, in about two-and-a-half weeks.
Halelujah! The party continues.
Friday's Free-for-all:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,491.96, +72.66 (0.39%)
NASDAQ
5,249.90, +22.69 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,179.98, +9.12 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite
10,856.92, +84.99 (0.79%)
For the Week:
Dow: +96.56 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: +30.98 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: +10.94 (+0.50%)
NYSE Comp.: +107.59 (+1.00%)
In this instance, the August non-farm payroll report delivered only 151,000 net new jobs when expectations were for 180,000.
While it wasn't a huge miss, and, the BLS NFP report is one of the most conflated, untrustworthy, fragile and ultimately revisionist data points delivered to markets every month, it still holds water with the investing class.
The point taken here is that since there seems to be not enough jobs created to keep the economy humming along at anything more than a 1-1.5% growth rate, the Federal Reserve will not have any good reason to raise rates at their next meeting, in about two-and-a-half weeks.
Halelujah! The party continues.
Friday's Free-for-all:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,491.96, +72.66 (0.39%)
NASDAQ
5,249.90, +22.69 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,179.98, +9.12 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite
10,856.92, +84.99 (0.79%)
For the Week:
Dow: +96.56 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: +30.98 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: +10.94 (+0.50%)
NYSE Comp.: +107.59 (+1.00%)
Thursday, September 1, 2016
FOMC Focus: Will Stocks Change Direction After Labor Day?
Today's headline offers a provocative suggestion, though the simple answer to the question is a flat-out "NO," simply because the overtly political Federal Reserve will not - under an circumstances - raise interest rates in September.
That is almost so widely accepted within the financial community as to make it nearly a fact, a fait accompli, a gospel truth.
There are any number of reasons why the FOMC will not raise the federal funds rate even one basis point at their upcoming meeting on September 20 and 21, not the least of which is the assumption that such a rash move would derail the presidential bid by the status quo candidate, the fair-haired-soon-to-be-liar-in-chief, Hillary Clinton.
Naturally, that's a one-sided argument which has nothing to do with economics, but the Fed has other issues behind their upcoming decision to stand pat on rates for the foreseeable future.
Among these issues are the ongoing candidacy of Mr. Donald J. Trump, who is seen as anathema to anything and everything establishment, and that means the Fed itself. A Trump victory in November would almost certainly foment much in the way of chaos, including a pre-emptive attack from the Fed itself, sensing an almost perfect opening to raise rates and crash the market, maybe even do away with the entire post-Bretton Woods arrangement via a wholesale financial collapse.
That might be fun, but the projections fro the US economy going forward are not, have not been for some time and will not be. That's the main reason the Fed is stuck at the near-zero bound, because not only the US economy, but that of almost all developed nations are not growing. Rather, they are growling with intense citizen upset, declining labor utilization rates and a demographic wall that current policies can and will never scale.
The Fed is boxed in, as are all central banks. They can't do anything except buy up more overpriced assets even though that effort has failed to produce their highly-anticipated inflation and associated growth. One might say that all the central bank coddling of the system has produced is a massive over-supply of everything and a deflationary vortex that challenges their Keynesian orthodoxy.
The Fed - unless Hillary Clinton is elected president, and even that's no clincher - is toast.
Thursday's Results:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,419.30, +18.42 (0.10)
NASDAQ
5,227.21, 13.99 (0.27%)
S&P 500
2,170.86, -0.09 (0.00%)
^NYA
NYSE Composite
10,771.91, +7.16 (0.07%)
That is almost so widely accepted within the financial community as to make it nearly a fact, a fait accompli, a gospel truth.
There are any number of reasons why the FOMC will not raise the federal funds rate even one basis point at their upcoming meeting on September 20 and 21, not the least of which is the assumption that such a rash move would derail the presidential bid by the status quo candidate, the fair-haired-soon-to-be-liar-in-chief, Hillary Clinton.
Naturally, that's a one-sided argument which has nothing to do with economics, but the Fed has other issues behind their upcoming decision to stand pat on rates for the foreseeable future.
Among these issues are the ongoing candidacy of Mr. Donald J. Trump, who is seen as anathema to anything and everything establishment, and that means the Fed itself. A Trump victory in November would almost certainly foment much in the way of chaos, including a pre-emptive attack from the Fed itself, sensing an almost perfect opening to raise rates and crash the market, maybe even do away with the entire post-Bretton Woods arrangement via a wholesale financial collapse.
That might be fun, but the projections fro the US economy going forward are not, have not been for some time and will not be. That's the main reason the Fed is stuck at the near-zero bound, because not only the US economy, but that of almost all developed nations are not growing. Rather, they are growling with intense citizen upset, declining labor utilization rates and a demographic wall that current policies can and will never scale.
The Fed is boxed in, as are all central banks. They can't do anything except buy up more overpriced assets even though that effort has failed to produce their highly-anticipated inflation and associated growth. One might say that all the central bank coddling of the system has produced is a massive over-supply of everything and a deflationary vortex that challenges their Keynesian orthodoxy.
The Fed - unless Hillary Clinton is elected president, and even that's no clincher - is toast.
Thursday's Results:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,419.30, +18.42 (0.10)
NASDAQ
5,227.21, 13.99 (0.27%)
S&P 500
2,170.86, -0.09 (0.00%)
^NYA
NYSE Composite
10,771.91, +7.16 (0.07%)
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Stocks Give Back On Tuesday After Explosive Market Monday
Following Monday's ramp-alooza based on absolutely nothing other than consumer spending hitting its target, stocks lost ground on Tuesday heading into the Labor Day holiday weekend.
Since this is absolutely the slowest week of the year for everybody except maybe vacation rentals, don't look for any kind of major move in either direction prior to next Tuesday.
A week of nothing, otherwise known as the pain trade. There should be some profit-taking and squaring down on risky positions, but, again, nothing overtly dramatic.
Everything has absolutely flattened out, except possibly the $/Yen pair, back up to 103 on the day.
Tuesday's Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,454.30, -48.69 (-0.26%)
NASDAQ
5,222.99, -9.34 (-0.18%)
S&P 500
2,176.12, -4.26 (-0.20%)
NYSE Composite
10,797.10, -14.24 (-0.13%)
Since this is absolutely the slowest week of the year for everybody except maybe vacation rentals, don't look for any kind of major move in either direction prior to next Tuesday.
A week of nothing, otherwise known as the pain trade. There should be some profit-taking and squaring down on risky positions, but, again, nothing overtly dramatic.
Everything has absolutely flattened out, except possibly the $/Yen pair, back up to 103 on the day.
Tuesday's Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,454.30, -48.69 (-0.26%)
NASDAQ
5,222.99, -9.34 (-0.18%)
S&P 500
2,176.12, -4.26 (-0.20%)
NYSE Composite
10,797.10, -14.24 (-0.13%)
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