Good luck to anyone trying to do fundamental analysis in this market.
Jawboning by Fed officials and today, especially, the grand liar of Europe, Mario Draghi, led the assault on spec stocks and the market in general by threatening to take away the low interest rate punchbowl.
Draghi's comments came at an economic conference in Portugal, ECB President Mario Draghi said that as economic prospects improve in Europe, the ECB could make adjustments to its policies of sub-zero interest rates coupled with huge bond purchases.
As if that wasn't enough, a trio of Federal Reserve loudmouths set their jaws to yapping about asset values, cueing a collapse in the equity and bond markets.
Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, Vice-chair Stanley Fischer, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams all focused on high equity valuations in speeches at separate locales.
Thus, market participants wet their pants on the awful prospect that their enormous gains would somehow evaporate if the accommodative policies of the Federal Reserve were to be unwound. Of course, they're right. Almost all of the gains of the past eight years have been the result of loose monetary policy. Any tightening of such policies would mean that stocks might not be so easily gushed to higher levels.
Bond yield rose substantially, with the 10-year-note gaining to 2.19%, erasing all of June's gains.
Not that any of today's loose lip talking matters. Actions will determine the ultimate direction of the markets. While some degree of sanity and honest price discovery in markets would no doubt involve a lower rate of return than what's been considered normal since 2009, it also might result in crisis, as all manner of wealth is tied to stocks and their continued appreciation.
At the Close, 6/27/17:
Dow: 21,310.66, -98.89 (-0.46%)
NASDAQ: 6,146.62, -100.53 (-1.61%)
S&P 500 2,419.38, -19.69 (-0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 11,716.92, -41.94 (-0.36%)
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Monday, June 26, 2017
Target Zero: NASDAQ Unlucky in Lift-Off Sell-Off (Pump and Dump)
It wasn't a very pretty day for the moneychangers traders of paper stocks.
Nor was it particularly pleasing for goldbugs to see the precious metals smashed down around 4:00 am ET, but, then again, when it comes to gold manipulation, it's best to do it when most people are sleeping.
Theses manipulated markets are nearing the end of their central bank lifelines, though it is difficult to comprehend how the Fed, ECB, SNB, BOJ and others would pull the proverbial rug out all at the same time.
Therefore, a crash probably isn't in the cards, unless one is playing the political angle. In that scenario, we have the media and Democrats losing their war against President Donald J. Trump, who continues to steamroll over the Washington insider elite as though they ceased to matter after January 20th of this year.
In some ways, the Donald is right. Washington insiders and the mainstream media don't matter in the grand scheme of things, most of which revolves around MONEY.
Regarding that, stocks ramped pre-market, then sold off throughout the session. Oil finished flat. Gold and silver were hammered, as mentioned above, in a pre-dawn raid of the phony futures market, but mostly recovered. The major equity indices finished flat on the main, except for the NASDAQ, which took on some water.
Macro data had US durable goods orders down 1.1% in May after a 0.9% loss in April. That, in part, spurred the sell-off after lift-off in stocks.
Stocks are certainly being kept afloat by central banks and crony commercial banks. There's nothing even remotely normal about how stocks have been behaving since the great recession off 2008-09, but just in case anybody asks, the spread on treasuries - 2s and 30s - tumbled again to 134bps - marking the flattest treasury yield curve since late 2007.
Recession is overdue, which means the US economy is probably already in one. Pension holders and 401k dreamers will be the last ones to know.
At The Close, 6/26/17:
Dow: 21,409.55, +14.79 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 6,247.15, -18.10 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 2,439.07, +0.77 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,758.86, +25.66 (0.22%)
Nor was it particularly pleasing for goldbugs to see the precious metals smashed down around 4:00 am ET, but, then again, when it comes to gold manipulation, it's best to do it when most people are sleeping.
Theses manipulated markets are nearing the end of their central bank lifelines, though it is difficult to comprehend how the Fed, ECB, SNB, BOJ and others would pull the proverbial rug out all at the same time.
Therefore, a crash probably isn't in the cards, unless one is playing the political angle. In that scenario, we have the media and Democrats losing their war against President Donald J. Trump, who continues to steamroll over the Washington insider elite as though they ceased to matter after January 20th of this year.
In some ways, the Donald is right. Washington insiders and the mainstream media don't matter in the grand scheme of things, most of which revolves around MONEY.
Regarding that, stocks ramped pre-market, then sold off throughout the session. Oil finished flat. Gold and silver were hammered, as mentioned above, in a pre-dawn raid of the phony futures market, but mostly recovered. The major equity indices finished flat on the main, except for the NASDAQ, which took on some water.
Macro data had US durable goods orders down 1.1% in May after a 0.9% loss in April. That, in part, spurred the sell-off after lift-off in stocks.
Stocks are certainly being kept afloat by central banks and crony commercial banks. There's nothing even remotely normal about how stocks have been behaving since the great recession off 2008-09, but just in case anybody asks, the spread on treasuries - 2s and 30s - tumbled again to 134bps - marking the flattest treasury yield curve since late 2007.
Recession is overdue, which means the US economy is probably already in one. Pension holders and 401k dreamers will be the last ones to know.
At The Close, 6/26/17:
Dow: 21,409.55, +14.79 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 6,247.15, -18.10 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 2,439.07, +0.77 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,758.86, +25.66 (0.22%)
Sunday, June 25, 2017
The Long and Short of the Approaching Recession (Depression)
For those out there reading this short missive, a warning that time and space are constraints upon the lives we live, the bread we bake, the food we eat, the products we produce, the jobs that sustain us and the government that pretends to cater to us.
Time and space - according to most adherents of pure physics - are not constraints upon thinking, thought, creativity and imagination.
Indulgence should be given more, in these days of financial peril and social inequality, to solutions derived in the mind, translated to the body by practicality and functionality.
In both the long and short discussions of current finance, there can be little doubt that the system of capitalism by which the developed world has grown and prospered is under severe strain and the solutions offered by the central bankers and government entities who pretend to know how it all works are nothing more than stop-gap measures intended solely to prevent, or at least, delay, a complete collapse of a fragile, human-made system.
Economics, being mostly theoretical, and therefore, unbound, unfortunately needs to operate in a closed, bound, system, restrained by those old devils of time and space. As has been frequently mentioned in higher-level economic discussions, "infinite growth is unsustainable in a finite world."
With that in mind, this weekend edition of Money Daily offers but a brief insight into the unraveling of the world order of finance already well underway.
On the whole, Friday was a washout to a week in which the major indices - with the notable exception of the NASDAQ - vacillated around the unchanged line. In the current nomenclature, stock indices - wherein the vast bulk of trading is performed by computer algorithms and central banks - are a control mechanism. So long as they are stable or going higher, the general population feels comforted and won't look around for cracks in the not-so-golden facade of global finance. As such, this week was very much like the previous six, or eight, or eighty. It was, in general terms, a big nothing-burger.
But, what does the outsize gain on the NASDAQ tell us, when the other indices were going exactly nowhere fast?
It says that the NASDAQ is where the speculation exists, where all the funny money or phony money is going to seek yield, mostly in tech-land, but also in energy stocks and in short-squeezes on the most-shorted list. It's how the game is being played at the top. If shorts are numerous on a particular equity, that where the money flow will be most pronounced, on the long side. Boom! Instant profits and a great weekend in the Hamptons awaits.
For the rest of us, we are placated with the rest of the market going sideways. At least - we comfort ourselves in saying - it didn't go down, much.
An expanded view looks at a couple of issues. Oil took another beating this week as the glut continues, though this fact is not to be promulgated to the general population. We are led to believe that oil is scarce and the price of gas with which to fill our cars should remain at elevated levels.
Nothing could be further from the truth. A variety of factors, including, but not limited to, better fuel consumption, an aging population, alternative energy sources, stagnant or slowing employment, and a more stay-at-home, economically-depressed middle America, is leading to the reality of oversupply meeting slack or declining demand. Oil will continue to fall until it becomes apparent that the big energy companies are squeezing every last nickel and dime out of consumers in the form of stubbornly high gas prices. At some point, the price of gasoline will merit a meeting with reality and then, gas will average, nationally, under $2.00 a gallon, notwithstanding the absurdly-high state and federal taxes on each and every gallon pumped. It's coming. It cannot be denied.
Overseas, the demise of two Italian banks on Friday was, typically, underreported. Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, with combined assets of roughly 60 billion euros, were green-lighted by the ECB on Friday for liquidation. In other words, these banks are belly-up, bankrupt, kaput!
The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, the AP, all reported the story. The mainstream media, such as ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, et. al., i.e, the fake news propagandists, did not.
There you have it. The general public will not be told the truth about the fraility of the banking system for fears people would recall the horrors of the GFC of 2008-09.
Two Italian banks failing may not make the radar of disinterest parties such as the 98% of Americans who don't pay attention to nor understand economics or finance. Neither did the closure of two Bear Stearns funds back in the Spring of 2008. You are now forewarned and forearmed, with knowledge.
The world'd financial system is unwinding and the pace is quickening. Disruptions are already apparent in the forms of capital controls - mostly overseas, but heading to US shores soon - supply chain disorder, falling tax receipts, social unrest, and, most importantly and glaringly obvious, income disparity.
Stay informed, not from the mainstream sources, but from outside. The internet is s treasure trove of information that you're not supposed to know about. It will help you form opinions and strategies by which you can deal with the coming hard times.
Your thoughts and ideas have no limits. Time and space cannot prevent you from thinking, strategizing and planning for your won welfare.
At the Close, 6/23/17:
Dow: 21,394.76, -2.53 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 6,265.25, +28.56 (0.46%)
S&P 500: 2,438.30, +3.80 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,733.20, +20.68 (0.18%)
For the Week:
Dow: +10.48 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: +113.49 (1.84%)
S&P 500: +5.15 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite: -38.83 (-0.33%)
Time and space - according to most adherents of pure physics - are not constraints upon thinking, thought, creativity and imagination.
Indulgence should be given more, in these days of financial peril and social inequality, to solutions derived in the mind, translated to the body by practicality and functionality.
In both the long and short discussions of current finance, there can be little doubt that the system of capitalism by which the developed world has grown and prospered is under severe strain and the solutions offered by the central bankers and government entities who pretend to know how it all works are nothing more than stop-gap measures intended solely to prevent, or at least, delay, a complete collapse of a fragile, human-made system.
Economics, being mostly theoretical, and therefore, unbound, unfortunately needs to operate in a closed, bound, system, restrained by those old devils of time and space. As has been frequently mentioned in higher-level economic discussions, "infinite growth is unsustainable in a finite world."
With that in mind, this weekend edition of Money Daily offers but a brief insight into the unraveling of the world order of finance already well underway.
On the whole, Friday was a washout to a week in which the major indices - with the notable exception of the NASDAQ - vacillated around the unchanged line. In the current nomenclature, stock indices - wherein the vast bulk of trading is performed by computer algorithms and central banks - are a control mechanism. So long as they are stable or going higher, the general population feels comforted and won't look around for cracks in the not-so-golden facade of global finance. As such, this week was very much like the previous six, or eight, or eighty. It was, in general terms, a big nothing-burger.
But, what does the outsize gain on the NASDAQ tell us, when the other indices were going exactly nowhere fast?
It says that the NASDAQ is where the speculation exists, where all the funny money or phony money is going to seek yield, mostly in tech-land, but also in energy stocks and in short-squeezes on the most-shorted list. It's how the game is being played at the top. If shorts are numerous on a particular equity, that where the money flow will be most pronounced, on the long side. Boom! Instant profits and a great weekend in the Hamptons awaits.
For the rest of us, we are placated with the rest of the market going sideways. At least - we comfort ourselves in saying - it didn't go down, much.
An expanded view looks at a couple of issues. Oil took another beating this week as the glut continues, though this fact is not to be promulgated to the general population. We are led to believe that oil is scarce and the price of gas with which to fill our cars should remain at elevated levels.
Nothing could be further from the truth. A variety of factors, including, but not limited to, better fuel consumption, an aging population, alternative energy sources, stagnant or slowing employment, and a more stay-at-home, economically-depressed middle America, is leading to the reality of oversupply meeting slack or declining demand. Oil will continue to fall until it becomes apparent that the big energy companies are squeezing every last nickel and dime out of consumers in the form of stubbornly high gas prices. At some point, the price of gasoline will merit a meeting with reality and then, gas will average, nationally, under $2.00 a gallon, notwithstanding the absurdly-high state and federal taxes on each and every gallon pumped. It's coming. It cannot be denied.
Overseas, the demise of two Italian banks on Friday was, typically, underreported. Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, with combined assets of roughly 60 billion euros, were green-lighted by the ECB on Friday for liquidation. In other words, these banks are belly-up, bankrupt, kaput!
The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, the AP, all reported the story. The mainstream media, such as ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, et. al., i.e, the fake news propagandists, did not.
There you have it. The general public will not be told the truth about the fraility of the banking system for fears people would recall the horrors of the GFC of 2008-09.
Two Italian banks failing may not make the radar of disinterest parties such as the 98% of Americans who don't pay attention to nor understand economics or finance. Neither did the closure of two Bear Stearns funds back in the Spring of 2008. You are now forewarned and forearmed, with knowledge.
The world'd financial system is unwinding and the pace is quickening. Disruptions are already apparent in the forms of capital controls - mostly overseas, but heading to US shores soon - supply chain disorder, falling tax receipts, social unrest, and, most importantly and glaringly obvious, income disparity.
Stay informed, not from the mainstream sources, but from outside. The internet is s treasure trove of information that you're not supposed to know about. It will help you form opinions and strategies by which you can deal with the coming hard times.
Your thoughts and ideas have no limits. Time and space cannot prevent you from thinking, strategizing and planning for your won welfare.
At the Close, 6/23/17:
Dow: 21,394.76, -2.53 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 6,265.25, +28.56 (0.46%)
S&P 500: 2,438.30, +3.80 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,733.20, +20.68 (0.18%)
For the Week:
Dow: +10.48 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: +113.49 (1.84%)
S&P 500: +5.15 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite: -38.83 (-0.33%)
Friday, June 23, 2017
Mixed Stocks Ahead Of Quad-Witching; Fed Gearing Toward Recession
For the second straight session, stocks closed mixed, with the Dow and S&P finishing in the red while the NASDAQ and NYSE Composite registered marginal gains.
Essentially, markets were flat as the trudge through June continues.
As the week draws to a close, Friday looks to be a troublesome day, owing largely to options expiration and the fact that with the exception of the Dow, the major indices are right back where they began the month.
This condition - known as quadruple witching - may result in increased volatility, and, with prices flat, many stock options and futures may close without redemption, i.e., losses.
Quad witching is the simultaneous expiration of options and futures tied to individual stocks and stock indexes occurring on the last month of each quarter.
While the name may sound frightening, it often is not, especially when stocks are gaining, which, over the past eight years, has been more often than not. This quarter may prove a hurdle too high, sending stocks screaming lower.
Psychologically, losing money on a Friday sends traders home to unhappy weekends with thoughts of carnage fresh in their minds, so Monday's trading may prove more prescient in terms of market direction.
Meanwhile, bonds are telling. The 10-year note slipped to 2.15 on Thursday, with the 30-year bond holding steady at 2.72. The curve has continued to flatten, and that could actually be due to the Fed's tightening. With the overnight federal funds rate at 1.00-1.25 - the highest in nearly a decade - the Fed may be - inadvertently or otherwise - prompting the US economy into a recession.
GDP growth continues to flag and employment is stagnant. Raising rates during a period of slow to no growth makes sense only to Federal Reserve governors or others who bear no consequences for their actions.
Friday's action in the markets deserves close attention.
At the Close, 6/22/17:
Dow: 21,397.29, -12.74 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ 6,236.69, +2.73 (0.04%)
S&P 500 2,434.50, -1.11 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,712.52, +16.24 (0.14%)
Essentially, markets were flat as the trudge through June continues.
As the week draws to a close, Friday looks to be a troublesome day, owing largely to options expiration and the fact that with the exception of the Dow, the major indices are right back where they began the month.
This condition - known as quadruple witching - may result in increased volatility, and, with prices flat, many stock options and futures may close without redemption, i.e., losses.
Quad witching is the simultaneous expiration of options and futures tied to individual stocks and stock indexes occurring on the last month of each quarter.
While the name may sound frightening, it often is not, especially when stocks are gaining, which, over the past eight years, has been more often than not. This quarter may prove a hurdle too high, sending stocks screaming lower.
Psychologically, losing money on a Friday sends traders home to unhappy weekends with thoughts of carnage fresh in their minds, so Monday's trading may prove more prescient in terms of market direction.
Meanwhile, bonds are telling. The 10-year note slipped to 2.15 on Thursday, with the 30-year bond holding steady at 2.72. The curve has continued to flatten, and that could actually be due to the Fed's tightening. With the overnight federal funds rate at 1.00-1.25 - the highest in nearly a decade - the Fed may be - inadvertently or otherwise - prompting the US economy into a recession.
GDP growth continues to flag and employment is stagnant. Raising rates during a period of slow to no growth makes sense only to Federal Reserve governors or others who bear no consequences for their actions.
Friday's action in the markets deserves close attention.
At the Close, 6/22/17:
Dow: 21,397.29, -12.74 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ 6,236.69, +2.73 (0.04%)
S&P 500 2,434.50, -1.11 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,712.52, +16.24 (0.14%)
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Broken Markets Yield Strange Results
How does it happen that all the major indices closed lower on Wednesday, but the NASDAQ finished with a gain of nearly three-quarters of a percent, up 45 points on the day?
Algorithms gone wild, that's how.
With the computers cranked up to stuff speculative stocks with ever-high bids, the NASDAQ has been outperforming the other indices over the past year, but especially so in 2017. Over the past 12 months, the NAZ is up nearly 30%, the Dow gained by 21% and the S&P 18%.
In the past three months, the NASDAQ has improved by 7.59%, while the Dow is up a mere 3.58%, the S&P 500 up 3.92%. That substantial edge has begun slipping however, as the NASDAQ took a major hit on the 8th of June. Prior to that massive outflow, the index was up 9.10% since March 22.
Apparently, that was not to the liking of the speculative sorts populating the concrete canyons of lower Manhattan. That's how results such as Wednesday's occur. Given that computers do more than 60% of all trading, it's not a stretch to believe that certain goal-seeking altos could be cranked up by human hands behind the scenes and the screens.
Markets have been broken by computer-driven trading, lack of oversight by the SEC and meddling by central bankers and the Federal Reserve. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), and European Central Bank (ECB) all active purchasers of stocks (not sellers), such meddling behavior is bound to cause distortions such as seen on Wednesday and in a myriad of other sessions, issues, and especially in ETFs.
Stocks may be at or near all-time highs, but caution is urged in such a speculative, managed market. A misstep or fat finger could cause any manner of disorder.
At the Close, 6/21/17:
Dow: 21,410.03, -57.11 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: 6,233.95, +45.92 (0.74%)
S&P 500: 2,435.61, -1.42 (-0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 11,696.28, -42.67 (-0.36%)
Algorithms gone wild, that's how.
With the computers cranked up to stuff speculative stocks with ever-high bids, the NASDAQ has been outperforming the other indices over the past year, but especially so in 2017. Over the past 12 months, the NAZ is up nearly 30%, the Dow gained by 21% and the S&P 18%.
In the past three months, the NASDAQ has improved by 7.59%, while the Dow is up a mere 3.58%, the S&P 500 up 3.92%. That substantial edge has begun slipping however, as the NASDAQ took a major hit on the 8th of June. Prior to that massive outflow, the index was up 9.10% since March 22.
Apparently, that was not to the liking of the speculative sorts populating the concrete canyons of lower Manhattan. That's how results such as Wednesday's occur. Given that computers do more than 60% of all trading, it's not a stretch to believe that certain goal-seeking altos could be cranked up by human hands behind the scenes and the screens.
Markets have been broken by computer-driven trading, lack of oversight by the SEC and meddling by central bankers and the Federal Reserve. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), and European Central Bank (ECB) all active purchasers of stocks (not sellers), such meddling behavior is bound to cause distortions such as seen on Wednesday and in a myriad of other sessions, issues, and especially in ETFs.
Stocks may be at or near all-time highs, but caution is urged in such a speculative, managed market. A misstep or fat finger could cause any manner of disorder.
At the Close, 6/21/17:
Dow: 21,410.03, -57.11 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: 6,233.95, +45.92 (0.74%)
S&P 500: 2,435.61, -1.42 (-0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 11,696.28, -42.67 (-0.36%)
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