Stocks Dumped Again As FOMC Meeting Portends Higher Interest Rates

The most obvious cause for Monday's sharp selloff has to be the widely-anticipated 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate which should become official when the FOMC concludes its March meeting on Wednesday.

Getting out in front of the Fed's move was paramount, as stocks slid in early going, gaining a little back in the afternoon. The Dow plunged nearly 500 points intra-day, bottoming out at 24,453.14 just prior to 3:00 pm EDT.

Anybody playing the market net short has to be pleased with recent results while bulls may be looking to gore any bear marketer caught on the loose.

What bears (no pun intended) watching is what happens on the actual announcement (Wednesday, 1:00 pm EDT) and thereafter. If the slide continues, the Dow will soon enter correction territory again with the next stop a full blown bear market, which would signal the end of a nine-plus-year bull run.

For now, it's safe to say that the Dow won't be seeing much in the way of positive progress unless the Fed surprises and leaves rates unchanged, a very doubtful expectation.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54
3/12/18	25,178.61	-157.13	+149.41
3/13/18	25,007.03,	-171.58	-22.17
3/14/18	24,758.12	-248.91	-271.08
3/15/18	24,873.66	+115.54	-155.54
3/16/18	24,946.51	+72.85	-82.69
3/19/18	24,610.91	-335.60	-418.29

At the Close, Monday, March 19, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,610.91, -335.60 (-1.35%)
NASDAQ: 7,344.24, -137.74 (-1.84%)
S&P 500: 2,712.92, -39.09 (-1.42%)
NYSE Composite: 12,651.46, -132.93 (-1.04%)

Stocks Remain Under Pressure As Rate Hike Looms

With the March FOMC meeting now less than a week away (March 20-21), stocks experienced some turbulence in the lead-up to the expected 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate.

That is likely the most important feature of the markets at this juncture, with stocks getting squeezed as bonds have apparently accepted the rate hike as a fait accompli and have stabilized, with the 10-year-note settling in the range of a 2.85% yield.

Taking the worst of it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which suffered another setback for the week and remains lower for the month. If the down finishes March in the red, it would be the first occurrence of two straight losing months since December 2015 and January 2016.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54
3/12/18	25,178.61	-157.13	+149.41
3/13/18	25,007.03	-171.58	-22.17
3/14/18	24,758.12	-248.91	-271.08
3/15/18	24,873.66	+115.54	-155.54
3/16/18	24,946.51	+72.85	-82.69

At the Close, Friday, March 16, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,946.51, +72.85 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 7,481.99, +0.25 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 2,752.01, +4.68 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 12,784.39, +40.78 (+0.32%)

For the Week:
Dow: -389.23 (-1.54%)
NASDAQ: -78.82 (-1.04%)
S&P 500: -34.56 (-1.24%)
NYSE Composite: -134.43 (-1.04%)

Stocks Bounce, Dead Cat Variety, Then Fade

Nothing much to see here, though the Dow has managed to stay in a relatively tight range, below the interim high and above the interim low, still negative for the month.

Further patience, with a slight bias to the short side, is advised

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54
3/12/18	25,178.61	-157.13	+149.41
3/13/18	25,007.03	-171.58	-22.17
3/14/18	24,758.12	-248.91	-271.08
3/15/18	24,873.66	+115.54	-155.54

At the Close, Thursday, March 15, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,873.66, +115.54 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 7,481.74, -15.07 (-0.20%)
S&P 500: 2,747.33, -2.15 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 12,743.61, -19.06 (-0.15%)

Added:

Report from upstate NY (30 miles east of Rochester) Crash is coming, very soon. Restaurants are closing everywhere. Most of the small towns, like Sodus, Macedon, Clyde, Newark have plenty of retail space for lease, much of it on the block for over two years.

Retail is awful. Only the biggest, best-established stores are surviving, and that's all they're doing. People are over-taxed, stressed out, debt-laden zombies. Average of $22k per student in most districts. Upstate NY (from Albany west to Buffalo) has been in a depression for the past 20 years, but, seriously, it's getting worse. People are down to buying just necessities and trying to pay off credit card and school debt. Forget about mortgages. It's like the sub-prime crisis is still ongoing. Monroe County (Rochester) lists two to three foreclosures a day.

The narrative that we're in "recovery" or "expansion" is complete horse manure. As soon as you make some money, there's the revenue guy or the locals erecting more stupid regulations to make life more difficult.

A true cleansing is needed. Start by closing all the schools. Screw the overpaid, fat, stupid teachers and their huge pension load. They suck. They don't teach; they only take. Same for most government employees. Then sack half the municipal and state employees. Then 50% of the federal employees. When half of the nation is on welfare, cut that off, shoot the worthless eaters and start over.

I'm in my mid-60s and I have to admit, I've never seen the economy in worse condition. Ever since 2008, it's been every man for himself. Pretty darn sad. We used to have a good country, but it's been going downhill for several generations. Half of the youth are worthless and will be dangerous.

Bankruptcy filings will erupt in the second half this year unless there's dramatic change from within. Trump can't do it all, but he's fighting a deflation monster nobody wants to admit exists.

Here, with a foot of snow on the ground five days before Spring, things are looking pretty damn bleak.

Dow Sheds For Third Strat Day; Last Week's Gains In Jeopardy

Trade wars. Inflation. Rate hikes. Housing prices. Wealth inequality.

Take your pick. These are but a few of the issues vexing investors as the Dow Jones Industrials recorded triple digit losses for the third straight session, wiping out the gains from the previous Friday and threatening to eviscerate all of the upside from a momentous prior week.

Anybody keeping score (and if you have a pension plan, college fund, or any other kind of tangential reach into the world of equities, you should be) has to be at least a little bit alarmed at the inability of stocks to regain their momentum. After a wildly positive January, February was fraught with panic and pain. Now March is beginning to shape up into a further continuation of the slippery slope upon which stocks are currently sliding downward.

Over the previous week, the Dow had ramped up nearly 800 points, but, as of the current mid-week, the blue chips are down nearly 600 points. Another day like Wednesday would not only eclipse the gains of last week, but it would also signal to chart-watchers a breach of the prior interim low, 24,538.06, achieved March 2nd.

A drop below that level would be an almost certain sign that the index - and stocks in general - are in for another round of relentless selling pressure. What matters little is the suspected cause. What matters most is the evaporation of profits and gains and the spread of fear in the accumulation of wealth.

It would not be the first time that investors had been hoodwinked by snake oil salesmen promoting a path to easy street via investments in minuscule percentage ownership of gigantic corporations. In all likelihood, it would not be the last.

As has been stated in prior posts here at Money Daily, the market is moving not only on money flows and fundamentals, but on political considerations, whether they be real or imagined.

There is very real danger at this juncture and investors would be wise to hold cash and/or take profits.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54
3/12/18	25,178.61	-157.13	+149.41
3/13/18	25,007.03	-171.58	-22.17
3/14/18	24,758.12	-248.91	-271.08

At the Close, Wednesday, March 14, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,758.12, -248.91 (-1.00%)
NASDAQ: 7,496.81, -14.20 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,749.48, -15.83 (-0.57%)
NYSE Composite: 12,762.67, -69.08 (-0.54%)

Blue Chips Smashed Again; Dollar Dives; Gold, Silver Benefit

Whether or not the market - via the headline-parsing algorithms - was reacting to news that Rex Tillerson was fired from his position as Secretary of State or to hints that Larry Kudlow (yes, that "king dollar" Larry [cocaine habit] Kudlow) was in line to become the president's chief financial advisor has to be considered somewhat immaterial considering the calamitous close and the repeating pattern of strong openings and weak closes, telltale chart signals of bear markets.

Tuesday's rout left the Dow Jones Industrials down for the month... not by much, just 22 points, but there's been fundamental damage done to stocks not only today, but over the previous five weeks as well.

As Money Daily has recently taken pains to point out, the mood of the market has changed considerably since the go-go days of January. February marked the worst market performance in more than two years, and March is shaping up to be volatile and potentially devastating to equity holders.

Stocks have had ample time to recover the February losses but have failed to do so. That's an unmistakable fact underlying the weakening dynamic of the current condition.

On the day, the US dollar index dipped below the critical level of 90, closing at 89.71. The main beneficiaries of the dollar demise were the precious metals, as both gold and silver demonstrated strength. Though the gains were nothing dramatic, the PMs looked today like safe-haven bets, as did the 10-year-note, closing with a benign yield of 2.85%. Oil was banged lower, to 60.90 per barrel in WTI. The Dow has lost 328 points in the past two days, nipping off the excess of Friday's 440-point binge.

There are plenty of frayed nerves at the brokerage trading desks, especially with this coming Friday's options expiration, a triple-witching conclusion to the week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54
3/12/18	25,178.61	-157.13	+149.41
3/13/18	25,007.03,	-171.58	-22.17

At the Close, Tuesday, March 13, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,007.03, -171.58 (-0.68%)
NASDAQ: 7,511.01, -77.31 (-1.02%)
S&P 500: 2,765.31, -17.71 (-0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 12,831.76, -66.63 (-0.52%)