Call it window dressing, because that's pretty much what the final trading day of March will amount to, being that the markets have been battered and buffeted up and down - mostly down - for the past two months, gains on the Thursday prior to a three-day weekend should be considered a non-event.
As the March scorecard below shows, the big losses on the 22nd and 23rd could not be recouped, despite a bounce-back on Monday, the 26th, of nearly 670 Dow points. Combining the February and March declines, the Dow lost more than 200 points in those two months, and ends March more than 2500 points off the January 26 all-time high (26,616.71).
Of particular focus now are the declines following the most recent federal funds rate hike from Wednesday, March 21. Just after the 2:00 pm EDT announcement that day, the Dow rose to 24,977.65, making the drop post-FOMC a full 874 points, despite the bounce-back Monday (26th) and the close-out dead-cat-like bounce on Thursday, the 29th.
Also, keeping the chartists busy is the Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT), which nearly signaled bear market conditions on Wednesday, the 28th, three times dipping below the magic mark indicated by the February 8 close of 10,136.61 before finishing up with a slight positive bent. Thursday's 200+ point gain on the transports was more window dressing, short covering or outright central bank dip buying, giving the market some degree of confidence, even though there realistically should be little.
Anybody with an eye on the chart of the Transportation Index sold be keenly aware of the intra-day low on February 8, an awe-inspiring bottom at 9,806.79. Likewise, the intra-day low on the Industrial side was a jaw-dropping 23,360.29, on February 9.
The Industrials have already surpassed the February closing low of 23,860.46, finishing March 23 at 23,533.20. Therefore, according to Dow Theory, the only element missing from calling this market a bear - signifying a primary directional change - is for the Transportation Index to close below it's recent low to confirm.
As arcane and confusing as that may sound, the rigors of Dow Theory are almost never wrong when it comes to indicating primary changes. One only need check the stats from 2000 and 2008 (and many times before that) to see how that this signal is very accurate.
Not to say that the Dow and even more so, individual stocks, can't continue to dive to lower and lower depths, but it would be hard to see such a scenario developing without a significant slide on the Transportation Index.
Putting March in perspective, the losses here are notable, as March is traditionally a strong month for investors, with an average gain on the S&P 500 -
according to this calculator - of 1.11% from 1950 to the present, outdone only by the months of April (1.34%), November (1.39%) and December (1.53%). If equities continue to show weakness through April it might come as a surprise, but, even if it doesn't, the months of May through September are traditionally the weakest, with cumulative returns of just 0.22% over that 1950-2017 span. August and September are actually negative for that time period, posting losses of 0.27% and 0.64%, respectively.
While those figures are for the S&P, they serve as something of a proxy for the Dow, so if a bear market is to eventually emerge (and these things often take some time to develop), there's a high probability that the bull could hang on until August, significant, as the first estimate of Q2 GDP would print late July.
For the week, the NASDAQ was by far the weak performer, the only index incapable of exceeding a two percent gain over the four-day period. It wasn't even close, as the NASDAQ gained only 1.01%, unsurprising, since the NASDAQ had been significantly out-performing the other indices.
All of this number-churning should come as a relief for both bulls and bears. As April unfolds, there may be an easing up in volatility, and some gains to be had, but the ominous signs of an overpriced and subsequently weakening stock market are proliferating, the general economy notwithstanding. This offers some time to adjust strategies before what seems to be an obvious downdraft coming this summer.
That may be a huge speculation, but that's what makes a market.
Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 3/1/18 | 24,608.98 | -420.22 | -420.22 |
| 3/2/18 | 24,538.06 | -70.92 | -491.14 |
| 3/5/18 | 24,874.76 | +336.70 | -154.44 |
| 3/6/18 | 24,884.12 | +9.36 | -145.08 |
| 3/7/18 | 24,801.36 | -82.76 | -227.84 |
| 3/8/18 | 24,895.21 | +93.85 | -133.99 |
| 3/9/18 | 25,335.74 | +440.53 | +306.54 |
| 3/12/18 | 25,178.61 | -157.13 | +149.41 |
| 3/13/18 | 25,007.03, | -171.58 | -22.17 |
| 3/14/18 | 24,758.12 | -248.91 | -271.08 |
| 3/15/18 | 24,873.66 | +115.54 | -155.54 |
| 3/16/18 | 24,946.51 | +72.85 | -82.69 |
| 3/19/18 | 24,610.91 | -335.60 | -418.29 |
| 3/20/18 | 24,727.27 | +116.36 | -301.93 |
| 3/21/18 | 24,682.31 | -44.96 | -346.89 |
| 3/22/18 | 23,957.89 | -724.42 | -1071.31 |
| 3/23/18 | 23,533.20 | -424.69 | -1496.00 |
| 3/26/18 | 24,202.60 | +669.40 | -826.60 |
| 3/27/18 | 23,857.71 | -344.89 | -1171.49 |
| 3/28/18 | 23,848.42 | -9.29 | -1180.78 |
| 3/29/18 | 24,103.11 | +254.69 | -926.09 |
At the Close, Thursday, March 29, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,103.11, +254.69 (+1.07%)
NASDAQ: 7,063.44, +114.22 (+1.64%)
S&P 500: 2,640.87, +35.87 (+1.38%)
NYSE Composite: 12,452.06, +143.17 (+1.16%)
For the Week:
Dow: +569.91 (+2.42%)
NASDAQ: +70.78 (+1.01%)
S&P 500: +52.61 (+2.03%)
NYSE Composite: +274.36 (+2.25%)
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