Stocks Stall Out, Dow Down Second Straight Day; Turkey Sparks Global Sell-Off

Things began turning ugly late on Thursday as the Dow - for the second day in a row - fell sharply nearing the close of the session.

Stocks had been trading nearly unchanged heading into the final hour, but dropped deep into the red to end the day down nearly 75 points. While the drop is hardly more than a rounding error (0.29%), the pattern of losing ground at the end of the session is troubling.

Notice has been taken by market participants. As of Friday morning, Asian bourses closed lower and European indices were off significantly, with the German DAX off by two percent.

In the US, futures are pointing to a large sell-off at the opening bell. The culprit appears to be the currency crisis in Turkey, where the Lira was down more than 12% on the day against the US dollar and is down 66% on the year.

It appears that Turkey is on the verge of a major collapse as President Erdogan defies his critics by refusing to raise interest rates in order to stave off incipient inflation.

The Dow is up just over 40 points for the week. A negative close could end a streak of five straight winning weeks for the 30 blue chip stocks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70

At the Close, Thursday, August 9, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,509.23, -74.52 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 7,891.78, +3.46 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 2,853.58, -4.12 (-0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 12,956.66, -31.25 (-0.24%)

A Glitch In the Bull Matrix; Crude Dives To Six-Week Low

If anyone can call today's range of 70 points - top to bottom on the Dow - trading, they'd need to be making it up on volume, as the old misnomer suggests. Today's market saw neither opportunity nor volume, so, the traders made the day up. After a quick dip to the lows of the day just after the first hour of trading (10:40 am EDT), the Dow and other indices went choppy, but without significant movement (welcome to late summer).

Nearing the end of the session, the Dow stood almost where it ended the previous day and made all of the losses into the close in the final half hour (welcome to day-trading).

Most of the action was inconsequential, as it has been the past few weeks.

Taking a quick look at the past four weeks (20 sessions) on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 11 of the 20 saw gains or losses of less than 100 points. For perspective, a move of roughly 125 points would equate to 1/2 percentage. In other words, more than half of the sessions in the past month have been mostly range-bound and more noise than substance.

Today was no exception. Even though the Dow was the biggest percentage mover of the major indices, it only registered a move of -0.18%. The others closed at less than one tenth of a percent from where they started.

So trading? Hardly.

The only people making money in this market are the brokers, and they aren't making that much.

Commodities are perplexed. Crude futures fell dramatically.

Investing.com - WTI crude oil prices settled at six-week lows Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected and U.S.-China trade tensions intensified.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery fell 3.2% to settle at $66.94 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent fell 3.26% to trade at $72.22 barrel.

Precious metals have become an afterthought for now. Gold and silver have been trading below where they were two years ago, trending in a tight range and looking likely to collapse into an even deeper abyss. An ounce of gold today will not even purchase a high end cell phone. It's looking pretty dismal for the gold and silver bugs, who have managed to hold onto the most abused financial assets for far too long. Their day may come, but that day may be a long way off.

Trading baseball cards or comic books might be more exciting and profitable than the current regime of stocks, bonds, and commodities. Those markets are too well-known and over-saturated. However, they are the backbone of global commerce, and, as such, will not be discarded lightly.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22

At the Close, Wednesday, August 8, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,583.75, -45.16 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ: 7,888.33, +4.66 (+0.06%)
S&P 500: 2,857.70, -0.75 (-0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 12,987.91, -11.68 (-0.09%)

Stocks Charge Ahead; Dow At Highest Level Since February

With the bull market less than three weeks from being the longest ever in US financial history stocks moved forward as the main indices ramped higher in tandem.

The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since January while the Dow finished the session at a six-month high. The last time the Dow was higher was February 26 (25,709.27) as the industrials snapped back from a wicked decline earlier in the month.

The NASDAQ, which recently has taken on losses due to companies like Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA), gained to within 50 points of its all-time high, set on July 26, at 7932.34.

All of this is happening against a backdrop of a vacationing congress, a booming economy, low unemployment, and the third rate hike of the year by the Federal Reserve on schedule for late September. The FOMC meets September 25-26, and is widely anticipated to raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points, to 2-2.25%.

Investors are taking an approach to stocks that is largely ignoring high valuations on the back of impressive recent returns.

While warnings that stocks are overpriced have been circulating since mid-2014, the market seems content to add to gains relentlessly, without regard to underlying fundamentals.

The wild card for stocks is the political front. On the one hand, President Trump's policies seem to have ushered in a fresh era of confidence in the US economy, while on the other, his opponents on the left continue to harass and harangue his administration.

To his credit, Mr. Trump has continued to implement policies he promised during his 2016 campaign of "Make America Great Again," while his Democrat opposition has largely been engaged in pure obstructionism against his positive message.

Where markets go from here are, naturally, unpredictable, though there's little doubt that most of the betting is on higher equity prices in the near term.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38

At the Close, Tuesday, August 7, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,628.91, +126.73 (+0.50%)
NASDAQ: 7,883.66, +23.99 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,858.45, +8.05 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 12,999.59, +35.32 (+0.27%)

Bull Market Lulling Investors To Sleep; Set to Be Longest in US History

All the major averages posted gains on Monday.

Boy, is this getting boring.

The bull market, which began on March 9, 2009, has lasted longer than all but one long term rally in US economic history. In less than three weeks, the bull market will become the longest ever.

Ho-hum. Money. It's so easy.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65

At the Close, Monday, August 6, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,502.18, +39.60 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 7,859.68, +47.66 (+0.61%)
S&P 500: 2,850.40, +10.05 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 12,964.27, +10.93 (+0.08%)

Weekend Wrap: Dow Goes Positive For Week On Friday Ramp

Logicians need not apply.

Following the disappointment of the BLS August Non-Farm Payroll data, the general assumption was that stocks would sour, as also presaged by the index futures on the Dow Mini, et. al..

Such was not the case. Stocks rose throughout the day, based upon algorithms interpreting all news as positive, giving the Dow Industrials its best gain since July 25th.

The NASDAQ ended the week with both the best point and percentage gains, +74.60, and +0.96%, respectively.

One very prescient observation is that while volume has all but dried up the past few weeks, it's much easier for stocks to find bids than otherwise.

A resumption of the more serious selling seen in February and March is unlikely to occur until after Labor Day.

These are certainly dog days, a period in which short-side players should exercise extreme caution.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05

At the Close, Friday, August 3, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average, 25,462.58, +136.42 (+0.54%)
NASDAQ: 7,812.01, +9.33 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,840.35, +13.13 (+0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 12,953.34, +55.27 (+0.43%)

For the Week:
Dow: +11.52 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: +74.60 (+0.96%)
S&P 500: +21.53 (+0.76%)
NYSE Composite +32.00 (+0.25%)