Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Stocks Charge Ahead; Dow At Highest Level Since February

With the bull market less than three weeks from being the longest ever in US financial history stocks moved forward as the main indices ramped higher in tandem.

The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since January while the Dow finished the session at a six-month high. The last time the Dow was higher was February 26 (25,709.27) as the industrials snapped back from a wicked decline earlier in the month.

The NASDAQ, which recently has taken on losses due to companies like Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA), gained to within 50 points of its all-time high, set on July 26, at 7932.34.

All of this is happening against a backdrop of a vacationing congress, a booming economy, low unemployment, and the third rate hike of the year by the Federal Reserve on schedule for late September. The FOMC meets September 25-26, and is widely anticipated to raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points, to 2-2.25%.

Investors are taking an approach to stocks that is largely ignoring high valuations on the back of impressive recent returns.

While warnings that stocks are overpriced have been circulating since mid-2014, the market seems content to add to gains relentlessly, without regard to underlying fundamentals.

The wild card for stocks is the political front. On the one hand, President Trump's policies seem to have ushered in a fresh era of confidence in the US economy, while on the other, his opponents on the left continue to harass and harangue his administration.

To his credit, Mr. Trump has continued to implement policies he promised during his 2016 campaign of "Make America Great Again," while his Democrat opposition has largely been engaged in pure obstructionism against his positive message.

Where markets go from here are, naturally, unpredictable, though there's little doubt that most of the betting is on higher equity prices in the near term.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
8/1/18 25,333.82 -81.37 -81.37
8/2/18 25,326.16 -7.66 -89.03
8/3/18 25,462.58 +136.42 +55.05
8/6/18 25,502.18 +39.60 +94.65
8/7/18 25,628.91 +126.73 +221.38

At the Close, Tuesday, August 7, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,628.91, +126.73 (+0.50%)
NASDAQ: 7,883.66, +23.99 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,858.45, +8.05 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 12,999.59, +35.32 (+0.27%)

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