One Down, One Up, and Now Comes the Fed

After two days of turmoil, the roller-coaster ride that has been this week's stock market is about to take another twist, or turn, or bump, or dive, or rise...

Nobody knows where it's going with the Federal Reserve's FOMC set to announce its first policy directive of the new year at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday.

Monday's coronavirus-inspired deflation was followed by a miraculous revival on Tuesday, as if somebody had found a sudden cure for the deadly outbreak that has spread across China and been exported - at last count - to at least 15 other countries, including the United State, Canada, France, Germany, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Japan and many others. Being mostly unchecked and having an incubation period of up to 14 days, it's probable that the virus will circle the globe within the next month.

The Dow lost some 450 points on Monday and regained less than half of that on Tuesday. With the virus still highly infectious and the death toll rising to 132, the Fed standing pat on interest rates would seem to be about as consequential as a water hose in a rainstorm.

Beyond the spread of the coronavirus, the other big story in play this week is the impeachment trial of president Trump, being played out in the US Senate. Both sides have presented their cases, though the Republican's defense took less than half the time as that of the Democrats and was more focused on law and reason than the House managers' mangled miasma of mistaken misappropriations.

Where the Democrats sought to emotionalize the proceedings, the president's legal team toned it down, making the case, alternatively, that the articles of impeachment were vague and thus void, or that no crime had been committed, emphasized by professor Alan Dershowitz's impassioned, eloquent, well-researched argument on Monday night that the founders intended impeachment to be narrowly focused, rather than nebulous and amorphous as are the Democrat charges of Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress, neither of which are criminal.

Despite the apparent readiness of the Republican side, the media spin spent the week twirling around speculation over a piece of manuscript leaked from former advisor John Bolton's upcoming book, spuriously-timed to intercede in the Senate proceedings. Bolton's claim that he had a personal conversation with Mr. Trump, in which the president explicitly tied the delay of aid to Ukraine with the need for that country to dig into the affairs of Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, concerning their dealings with the corrupt natural gas company Burisma, was all-too-conveniently timed to overshadow the defense team's presentation of facts and legalities.

Thus, instead of examining the case for or against the president based on the best arguments from both sides, the media has attempted to shift the attention of the American public from real arguments to a false paradigm over calling additional witnesses, none of whom would be likely to move the needle in either direction very mch at all.

Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, who said once that he may not have the votes to stop additional witnesses and evidence, has also said that the votes are there to defeat any such motion on Friday, when the issue will come to a vote of some kind, after two days of questions from senators to either side - or both - on Wednesday and Thursday.

If he Democrats succeed in their desire for additional testimony, it would likely extend the trial for weeks if not months, given that some witnesses, including the testimony of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, would likely be subject to executive privilege, a matter that would end up in the hands of the Supreme Court. Arguments for and against the invocation of privilege would likely take weeks to draw up and more weeks to argue before the court could issue a ruling. It's a real can of worms that the Democrats threaten to open.

Cooler heads may prevail in the Senate. Having heard enough to make a reasoned decision, there may come a vote on Friday - if the vote for additional witnesses fails - up or down on the president's guilt or innocence, which would end the trial and allow Senators Klobuchar, Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren enough headway to get back to campaigning in Iowa, where the first primary caucus is set to wrap up on Monday, February 3.

While the Senate plays paddy-cake with the future of the nation and its precedents, the coronavirus will no doubt spread fear, death and potentially-huge economic ramifications around the world. Whatever happens in the Fed decision or the impeachment matter is likely to take a back seat to the carnage a virulent, unchecked, highly-contagious virus can unleash.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 28, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,722.85, +187.05 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: 9,269.68, +130.37 (+1.43%)
S&P 500: 3,276.24, +32.61 (+1.01%)
NYSE: 13,877.61, +108.00 (+0.78%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Coronavirus Affecting Markets; Turbulent Week Ahead; Oil Already Whacked

Last week, as the the wealthy and infamous gathered for the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, markets were focusing on more compelling domestic and international issues, primarily, the impeachment trial of President Donald J. Trump and the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus which has spread outward from its source in mainland China, now reaching around the world, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where nearly all the developed nations are anchored.

While the impeachment hearings were less impactful, being that the first few days of the trial consisted of one session for rule-making and three days of Democrat managers from the House of Representatives reiterating their tired claims from months of investigations stemming from a single phone call, the spread of a killer virus caught everybody's attention.

The number of deaths officially reported by the Chinese government grew from 16 on Wednesday to 23 to 41 to 56 by Sunday. As the week progressed, the number of reported cases grew considerably - by Sunday, nearly 2,000 in China alone - along with the number of countries discovering outbreaks. By Sunday morning, instances of reported cases had been registered in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States.

Similar to the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak, which killed more than 750 people in 2002-2003, the threat is that this particular virus is spreading at a much faster rate as transmissibility is increasing.

By Monday morning, the toll will likely exceed 90, but there's widespread speculation that China has been and continues to understate not only the number of cases reported, but also the death toll.

This is the kind of thing some students of the dark science of economics might consider a "black swan," an unusual event or occurrence with a low probability that nobody sees coming. Already, the coronavirus outbreak has affected markets, but none more profoundly than oil. With travel bans in effect already in some Chinese cities and many presumably taking precautions to avoid crowds and people who may be infected, the world's second-largest user of oil and distillates is bound to experience a sharp demand decline that will affect prices globally.

WTI crude fell, over the course of the week, from $58.58 per barrel to $54.19, a decline of 7.5%. Brent dropped from an opening at $65.65 on Monday to $59.85 by week's end, losing nearly nine percent.

Stocks were also hit, as increasingly dire stories continued to mount over the course of the week, limiting upside on all exchanges, and squelching rallies on Tuesday, and especially in the US on Friday, when the Chinese government announced the rising death toll and cancellation of many Lunar New Year festivities, the biggest holiday in the country.

China, already on the brink of an extended financial downturn, saw severe damage to equity markets.

If the coronavirus continues to spread to other countries and becomes a pandemic, declines on the major indices (the Dow was down for the fourth straight day as of Friday) could turn what appeared as a minor fluctuation into an avalanche. Limiting movement, be it out of fear or by government dictates, would seriously hamper economic activity anyway, and, if the contagion becomes global in nature, which it appears to be doing, the effect may be long-lasting.

So, that's how normal operating markets turn into dungeons of doom. There is no silver lining, other than, you guessed it, silver and gold, both of which turned in the opposite direction from stocks, both tumbling on Tuesday but gaining the remainder of the week. Gold finished at $1571.60 per ounce; silver closed out the week at $18.10 per ounce. There is likely to be a further, faster advance in precious metals should the virus continue to spread.

With an FOMC meeting up next week (January 28-29) bonds saw high demand, moving interest rates on treasuries to their lowest levels since October, 2019. The 10-year-note closed out the week at 1.70% yield, with the 30-year bond closing at 2.14%.

Also upcoming in the week ahead, a slew of earnings reports, many of them notable as most will be for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the full year.

On Monday, homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI) and telecom Sprint (S) get the earnings parade started. A loaded Tuesday has Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM), Phizer (PFE), United Technologies (UTX), Nucor (NUE), and PulteGroup (PHM). Apple (APPL) and eBay (EBAY) report after the close.

On Wednesday, Dow components Boeing (BA), AT&T (T), and McDonald's (MCD) present, along with Mastercard (MA), General Electric (GE), and Dow Chemical (DOW). Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (F), and PayPal (PYPL) report after the close. Thursday's offerings include some titans. Coca-Cola (K), UPS (UPS), and Verizon (VZ) report prior to the opening bell. Amazon (AMZN) and Visa (V) are up after the close.

Prior to Friday's market open, ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Caterpillar (CAT) close out the earnings deluge.

It's going to be a busy week with plenty of engaging, diverging stories. In case that's not enough, the impeachment trial could conceivably wrap up by Friday, possibly sooner, the Super Bowl is Sunday, February 2nd, and the first presidential primary, the Iowa caucus, convenes on Monday, February 3rd.

If the coronavirus continues to spread, it's not likely to slow down, so this coming week could be an opportunity to take profits and/or shed losers before markets get any ideas about tanking. Depending on how severe the virus becomes, how quickly and how far it spreads, appropriate defensive actions may be entertained.

With stocks close to all-time highs, there's hardly a case to be made for buying at this point, which, in itself may provide good enough reason for some spirited selling.

At the Close, Friday, January 24, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,989.73, -170.36 (-0.58%)
NASDAQ: 9,314.91, -87.57 (-0.93%)
S&P 500: 3,295.47, -30.07 (-0.90%)
NYSE: 13,978.47, -123.57 (-0.88%)

For the Week:
Dow: -358.37 (-1.12%)
NASDAQ: -74.03 (-0.79%)
S&P 500: -343.15 (-1.03%)
NYSE: -123.57 (-0.8*%)

National Networks ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX Should Be Under FCC Review After Impeachment Bias

Thanks to physics and my choice of living way out in the sticks, I gratefully cannot get cable TV and my antenna doesn't pick up the local ABC affiliate. Sure, I miss a college football game here or there, but I can live with that.

Since I don't know what ABC did on Saturday in their coverage of President Trump's defense team's arguments before the Senate, I can’t comment on it, but here's how NBC, FOX, and CBS handled it. NBC's local affiliate (Knoxville, TN) had NO COVERAGE at all. It was supposedly delegated over to their secondary network, but, despite looking for it, I never saw it. FOX's local affiliate offered NO COVERAGE AT ALL.

CBS covered the trial for the first hour on their primary broadcast channel, but then apparently had given their affiliate (again, Knoxville, TN) the choice to switch to local programming, which they did. I managed to only miss a minute of Jay Sekulow's arguments when they switched the impeachment coverage over to their secondary channel, frantically flipping through channels to find the proceedings.

Those unfamiliar with over-the-air digital broadcasting will note that the major networks offer a number of channels of over-the-air broadcasts. They are designated by numbers, as in 12.1, 12.2, 12.3, where 12.1 would be the primary channel, with the network's complete national lineup plus local affiliate time slots. The other channels are usually delegated to secondary or tertiary offerings, employing programming from programmers such as CW, MeTV, Grit, Bounce, Start, Ion, Court TV, etc.

Some of these programmers, such as CW, offer a variety of in-house productions, but the bulk of them are reruns of time-worn sit-coms, dramas, Westerns, or variety shows. MeTV, for instance, offers up a steady diet of everything from The Beverly Hillbillies to The Flintstones.

The national networks likely have authority to cut into the programming of their secondary offerings whenever they feel it's necessary, during emergencies or when there's a programming conflict. Saturday's airing of the Senate impeachment trial apparently was deemed to be one of those times.

Now, mind you, when the Democrats were presenting the PROSECUTION, they had hours of wall-to-wall coverage on their primary network channels. There was no switching over and cutting into the programming of the secondary channels. But, apparently, in the executive offices of NBC and the other national networks, decisions were made that the defense arguments by the president's legal team were of little to no importance. Thus they were brushed aside in favor of facial cream advertisements, local sports shows, cartoons, or other innocuous programming.

I don't know if anybody else noticed the obvious bias of the networks, but if there was ever an argument to be made for pulling their FCC licenses, this would be it. Along with the obvious bias of CNN and MSNBC, which are cable-only "news" outlets, ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX are over-the-air networks which serve a large proportion of poor, middle-class, and especially, rural America. These networks are mis-serving the public and should have their licenses pulled, or, at least, reviewed.

The propaganda - including some smarmy legal analyst on CBS lying, after the proceedings, that Obstruction of Congress is a CRIME (it is not), and Major Garrett, prior to the hearing, promoting the notorious "heads on a pike" statement, saying it was his reporting and that he stands by it - is universally leftist, to a degree that broadcasters from the former Soviet Union are no doubt jealous.

-- Fearless Rick

Stocks Flat As Lagarde Offers Inflation Policy Change in Europe

For the second consecutive day, stocks posted mediocre results, most likely a pause in the overall giant run they've been on since late September of 2019, and hardly anything over which to be concerned.

The manners in which these last two trading sessions found the same end were radically different, a chartists' dilemma in which Wednesday started on the upside before relenting late in the day and Thursday found stocks mired deep in the red, finding salvation in the afternoon.

Essentially, the indices produced an elongated "V" pattern, stretching over two sessions.

Being that the market is run by algorithms and influenced heavily by macro momentum, this recent spate of weakness is probably going to be downplayed by the uber-bulls and supported by dovish tones from the Federal Reserve along with more sloshing capital from their burgeoning balance sheet.

The Fed's FOMC convenes on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but the market seems uninterested in whatever they might announce, being that they will almost surely keep interest rates precisely at the present level, the federal funds rate in a sweet spot between 1.50 and 1.75 percent, good enough to attract investors to bonds and other fixed income products and not onerous enough to preclude lending to all but the least worthy.

In Europe, newly-installed ECB head, Christine Lagarde quipped about inflation, launching a review of the bank's policies and hinting that the long-standing target of two percent might be few tenths too high under the current environment of negative interest rates and slowing national economies.

Inflation in the Eurozone has been nearly non-existent since the turn of the century, last year checking in at a subdued 1.3 percent. The call for a policy review by Lagarde is a timorous one, since practically anyone with a rudimentary understanding of economics realizes that the "Japanization" of Europe is well underway and that lowering the target for inflation to 1.6 or 1.5% is just more posturing by the central bank which has no control over the forces of mass immigration, low birth rates, and over-juiced financial markets.

Perhaps Ms. Largarde is on to something, however. Could she actually be headed for an Austrian awakening in which an epiphany guides her to understanding that any inflation is unnatural in a world of sound money?

Next thing you know, she'll be calling for a new currency to replace the flawed fiat euro, one backed by gold and silver.

Surely there would be many who scoff at the idea, but, when even negative interest rates fail to produce positive results, isn't it time to stop examining policy and start critiquing the currency itself.

Partially-backed gold and silver backed money - be it digital, paper, or coinage - may not seem such a bad idea, especially to people drowning in debt.

Central bankers have engaged in lunacy for the better part of 50 years (since Nixon's closing of the gold window in 1971). Maybe it's time for sound thinking and sound money.

At the Close, Thursday, January 23, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,160.09, -26.18 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 9,402.48, +18.71 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 3,325.54, +3.79 (+0.11%)
NYSE: 14,102.04, -8.20 (-0.06%)

Stocks Slide As IMF Revises Global Growth Projections Lower... Again

In the Senate, the impeachment trial of President Trump is well underway, though some Senators are wondering how the House managers can keep up their opening statement for another 16 hours without being laughed out of the chamber.

Adam Schiff, Gerold Nadler and their associates dithered and danced around the same tired narrative that's been their staple for the past six months and nobody is really buying it. Perhaps that's why stocks slumped late in the day, due to overwhelming boredom.

Impeachment aside, stocks were off to a solid start on Wednesday, but failed to make much progress, with the Dow actually ending in the red after being up 124 points early in the session.

There are be a plethora of reasons to be selling stocks at this juncture, main among them valuation, but the continuing slowdown in global trade and potential for most of Europe to fall into a recession are probably the most "top of mind" as winter winds blow cold across the Northern Hemisphere.

Lowering its 2019 forecast (a little late) for the sixth straight time, the IMF dropped expectations for global growth to 2.9%, down 0.1 from it's previous 3.0% expectation. Most of the data is already in place. The IMF, like everyone else, is monitoring fourth quarter results from corporations around the world.

In what has to be regarded as somewhat on the cheeky side, the IMF also lowered its 2020 forecast, from 3.4% to 3.3%. It's ludicrous to believe that the amalgamated egoistic economists at the IMF can get any prediction right, especially one calling for improvement when the early evidence is clearly favoring decline. Within a few months, these brainiacs will be revising their crystal ball projections and tea leaf readings to something more aligned with reality.

Considering that the US, at least, is at the far end of an 11-year bull market, some slowdown would be expected and it's notable that the brain-dead at the IMF cannot fathom the declining birth rate effects of demographics in developed countries, most of which have fallen below replacement figures.

With cheerleaders like those at the IMF and the relentless money creation by the Fed, there's little wonder the rich get richer as fake predictions are afforded the most credence.

At some point, the Fed will stop printing or the dollar will hyper-inflate. At that point, the IMF can revise upward and still find itself woefully behind the curve.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 22, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,186.27, -9.77 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 9,383.77, +12.96 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 3,321.75, +0.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE: 14,110.24, +0.26 (+0.00%)