It's official.
We live in Bizarro-world.
Protests stemming from the police killing of George Floyd continue to proliferate across the United States and around the world at the same time the COVID-19 coronavirus spreads against government efforts to control it. At the same time, stocks continue to erase the losses from the initial virus shock that occurred in March when stocks dove into bear market territory.
As for the shortest bear market in world history - five weeks - it's exceptionally amusing to see the money magicians at the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world create trillions of dollars (and yen, and euros, and pounds, and yuan) out of thin air and see that money flow almost directly into stocks, as if there were no other asset class in the world. Obviously, there are other assets classes, but the stock market is the one which delivers the most bang for the buck, so much so that the NASDAQ made a new all-time high on Monday.
That's just not normal. Nothing about the Fed-induced stock rampage is normal. To make a point, one could attest to it being mostly fake. It's fake money, counterfeited by the Federal Reserve, funneled to primary dealers to ram into stocks whose earnings have been cratering for months, some for years.
Measured in earnings growth or other metrics, stocks have never been more expensive, making a case for the "greater fool" theory where one buys shares in an overvalued company at an inflated price based on the idea that somebody dumber than you will buy it at an even higher price. It's working. There are fools a'plenty making a mockery of fundamentals and due diligence cashing in at incredible rates of return.
Take for instance the NASDAQ, which closed at 6,904.59 on March 16, the bottom of the COVID-19 shock treatment. Monday's record close of 9,924.75 marks an incredible return of 43.74 percent in less than three months. Annualized, that's a return of more than 174 percent, a figure that would have everybody in the world retiring at 40 in the ultimate "buy the dip" scenario.
Obviously, that kind of return is unthinkable, or, at least it used to be, until we entered Bizarro-world where cats mate with mice, birds sing full operas and Tom Hanks becomes a top home run hitter in the major leagues... if there was such a thing as professional baseball, which there is not, nor is there likely to be this year.
In bizarro world, Hertz, which filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago and traded for under a dollar last week, soar to over $5.50 on Monday. There's a 500% return right there, in just a few days. Thank you Jerome Powell, unrivaled leader of Bizarro-world.
Speaking of Mr. Powell, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting this week at the end of which they will announce their monetary policy. The ritualism of the Fed harkens back to tribal proceedings of the Aztecs, wherein the almighty witch doctor or shaman would enter the temple of the gods - with or without virgins - and emerge a day or two later with a proclamation for the masses. The wizened leader would announce that the rainy season was ending, or that pomegranates could cure mental illness.
The savages would praise the leader and spend the evening partying and dancing until they wore themselves out. It's an apt analogy for the ritual FOMC meetings which are held 10 times a year, or, for the anachronistically-unchallenged, SSDD.
Tuesday's meeting will extend to 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, at which time the money masters will make their announcement that all is well, release a summary of economic projections, and hold a press conference at which Chairman Powell will amuse and bedazzle the attendant financial media slaves.
And Bizarro-world will continue.
At the Close, Monday, June 8, 2020:
Dow: 27,572.44, +461.46 (+1.70%)
NASDAQ: 9,924.75, +110.66 (+1.13%)
S&P 500: 3,232.39, +38.46 (+1.20%)
NYSE: 12,836.60, +195.16 (+1.54%)
Tuesday, June 9, 2020
Sunday, June 7, 2020
WEEKEND WRAP: Did The BLS Cook The Books On May's Jobs Report?; Despite Stock Euphoria, The Crisis Will Continue
The week was one of consistency on the major indices, with stocks closing higher every day except Thursday, though, of the big four, the Dow was higher every day of the week, culminating in Friday's blow-off rally following the release of May non-farm payroll data from the BLS.
There was a considerable amount of speculation regarding the veracity of the BLS figures, which showed a net gain in May of 2.5 million jobs, the unemployment rate falling to 13.3%, according to the official release.
Most of the nation at least partially shut down during the month, the data provided by the BLS, while good enough for Wall Street's stock enthusiasts, has to be considered at least partially flawed, given that continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in the most recent week, hitting nearly 21.5 million.
Given that the April non-farm payroll report was a blockbuster all-time record at -20,537,000, revised higher, to -20,687,000, adding in the +2,509,000 would yield 18,178,000 still unemployed at the end of May, a number that does not jibe with the 21,487,000 continuing unemployment claims reported by the US Labor Department.
Also taken into consideration for the discrepancies between the two reports are the differences in reporting schedules and the Labor Department's estimate of more than 42 million initial claims filed over the past 10 weeks. Simply put, a lot of people went back to work in May, but there are still somewhere between 18 and 25 million unemployed. By claiming a record job creation number in its May data, the BLS has likely overstated the case for people returning to work after a brief hiatus due to the lockdowns caused by extreme measures taken to combat COVID-19.
A jump of 2.5 million jobs for the month has to be taken somewhat tongue-in-cheek since these are not new jobs whatsoever. The economy didn't produce 2.5 million new jobs. A better explanation would be that during the month, more people went back to work than were laid off or fired, by about 2.5 million.
Therefore, while the BLS can be accused of massaging their data to produce a positive headline, their methodology and timing remain - as has been the case for a very long time - somewhat suspect. There's still a massive unemployment problem which was manifest by the enormous numbers of protesters that appeared in cities nationwide over the course of the week. Many of these mostly young people were out on the streets during daylight and into the evenings. It would be logical to conclude that the vast majority of them were not holding down full-time jobs.
The protests underscore two things, neither of which have anything remotely to do with the death of George Floyd or police brutality. First, the protests are more about income inequality than anything else. These young people from Generation Z and the last remnants of the Millennials are becoming more and more impatient with the structure of the economy, even though most of them don't recognize that as the overriding factor of their movement.
While the chants of "Black Lives Matter" and "No Justice, No Peace" make for sensationally simple-minded soundbites on the mainstream media's morning and nightly news broadcasts, the root of the frustration is an economy which provides fewer jobs than are needed for fewer hours per week, at low rates of pay while the purchasing power of the dollar continues to decline, especially in some very important areas, those being primarily, housing, education, and health care.
When economists decry that large government deficits will be bourn on the backs of future generations, what we are seeing today is the truth of that dictum as the youthful protesters on the street are the generation now paying for the deficits rung up from the 1970s and '80s. It's a continuing, systemic problem that isn't about to go away. People trying to enter the workforce and engage in meaningful careers are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet. Income has net kept pace with inflation over the past 40-50 years, dating back to when then-President Nixon took the country off permanently off the gold standard in August of 1971.
There are certainly many young people doing fine in their careers. Those with masters degrees or doctorates or well-honed skills make very good money, but at a considerable price. Their cost of eduction can be measured in their student loan debt. Since housing costs have risen to extreme levels with only a slight blip in 2008-09, the affordability of just plain living quarters tests their resolve. Those wishing to start families (a declining number) see health care costs spiraling out of control. And those are the lucky ones with good jobs and dual incomes.
The rest of their generation struggles with all of that at lower pay and onerous debt. Many Millennials and Generation Z youths live four and five to a single home or apartment. Most cannot save anything, much less even dream of owning their own homes. Pity those who have medical conditions. Most cannot afford $300-$600 a month premiums with $5-8,000 deductibles, so they go without. To a lesser degree, the same conditions affect the backend of the Baby Boomers and early Millennials who have lived their lives on the fringes of society.
It's a condition of perpetual decline when roughly half of adult Americans do not have any savings whatsoever, the result of massive, uncontrolled government deficits, fait currency backed by nothing, printed to the hilt causing the purchasing power of the almighty dollar to slide into obscurity. It's not going away. In fact, with the Federal Reserve now in the process of either buying up or backing every stock or bond issued, hoisting their balance sheet by more than three trillion dollars in just the past three months, the US economy has become one of very few haves and very many have-nots, manifesting itself as runaway inflation. Not confined to just the United States, the rest of the world is revolted and revolting. Under current fiscal and monetary policy, the entire planet is rapidly turning into an oversized Venezuela.
Dissatisfaction with the political process is the second tenet of the protesters root causes, dovetailing income inequality and unaffordable living conditions. Federal, state, and local governments are ill-equipped to handle even ordinary stresses. Now that unemployment is on the rise and inflation is taking hold, government resources are stretched beyond their means. When people needed food during the recent lockdowns, government made little effort to step in. Food banks, charities and private citizens stepped up to fill the void. Government is increasingly being viewed with a jaded eye, neither responsive to people's needs nor able to fulfill basic obligations. People are simply tired of paying taxes and getting little to nothing in return. Individual income tax revenues are falling off a cliff while government debt continues to rise at an accelerating pace. Nothing about the current social and political condition is sustainable over anything but the short term, which is why we are seeing one crisis after another, bailout after bailout, emergencies arising on a regular schedule.
The United States and the rest of the world cannot buy or borrow their way out of this situation with policies that only increase debt and the burden to society. President Trump and Wall Street can go giddy over the most recent jobs data, but the underlying problems continue to mount and they're not going away. For all the media hype and government high-fiving in the short term, there's a larger price to be paid down the road. After years of can-kicking of core fiscal and monetary issues, the road is coming to an end. Most people, politicians, and financial planners don't have sufficient knowledge or vision to see where this all leads, preference being given to the present.
The NASDAQ is less than one half of one percent away from breaking to a new all-time high (9838.37).
The S&P 500 is about six percent away from a record close (3393.52).
Stocks are likely to continue climbing to record highs, but a period of stagnation lies just ahead. The bear market which was cut short by the Fed's money-pumping mechanisms and the government's emergency spending bills was the shortest on record, lasting a mere five weeks. Another bear market will be coming, as this one was papered over with currency that has only declining value. Oil prices are back up and by Friday, interest rates on treasuries had exploded. The 10-year note yielded 0.66% on Monday. By Friday, they were at 0.91%. The 30-year yield went from 1.46% to 1.68% over the course of the week. Shorter-dated maturities remained low, steepening the curve.
The final question for economists is this: How can high unemployment and tighter currency (higher rates) co-exist. The answer is very simple. They can't. With business unwilling or unable to expand, few will be hiring. Unemployment will remain elevated until there's a clearing or restructure of debt and businesses see a rosier future.
The Federal Reserve and the federal government has a very big problem on their hands. The pandemic and street uprisings were just the opening chapters of a very long story.
Gold and silver saw gains early in the week, only to be hammered lower on the paper markets.
The latest prices on ebay for one troy once items (shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 24.95 / 42.50 / 28.47 / 27.75
1 oz silver bar: 24.99 / 45.00 / 29.09 / 27.90
1 oz gold coin: 1,780.00 / 1,882.00 / 1,823.11 / 1,823.69
1 oz gold bar: 1,755.95 / 1,826.92 / 1,792.96 / 1,794.40
Premiums for silver are, on average, ten dollars or more over spot. Gold premiums are $80-100 over spot.
Greg Mannarino expounds upon the jobs number being cooked, market response and his positioning:
At the Close, Friday, June 5, 2020:
Dow: 27,110.98, +829.16 (+3.15%)
NASDAQ: 9,814.08, +198.27 (+2.06%)
S&P 500: 3,193.93, +81.58 (+2.62%)
NYSE: 12,641.44, +354.46 (+2.88%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1727.87 (+6.81%)
NASDAQ: +324.21 (+3.42%)
S&P 500: +149.62 (+4.91%)
NYSE: +838.49 (+7.10%)
There was a considerable amount of speculation regarding the veracity of the BLS figures, which showed a net gain in May of 2.5 million jobs, the unemployment rate falling to 13.3%, according to the official release.
Most of the nation at least partially shut down during the month, the data provided by the BLS, while good enough for Wall Street's stock enthusiasts, has to be considered at least partially flawed, given that continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in the most recent week, hitting nearly 21.5 million.
Given that the April non-farm payroll report was a blockbuster all-time record at -20,537,000, revised higher, to -20,687,000, adding in the +2,509,000 would yield 18,178,000 still unemployed at the end of May, a number that does not jibe with the 21,487,000 continuing unemployment claims reported by the US Labor Department.
Also taken into consideration for the discrepancies between the two reports are the differences in reporting schedules and the Labor Department's estimate of more than 42 million initial claims filed over the past 10 weeks. Simply put, a lot of people went back to work in May, but there are still somewhere between 18 and 25 million unemployed. By claiming a record job creation number in its May data, the BLS has likely overstated the case for people returning to work after a brief hiatus due to the lockdowns caused by extreme measures taken to combat COVID-19.
A jump of 2.5 million jobs for the month has to be taken somewhat tongue-in-cheek since these are not new jobs whatsoever. The economy didn't produce 2.5 million new jobs. A better explanation would be that during the month, more people went back to work than were laid off or fired, by about 2.5 million.
Therefore, while the BLS can be accused of massaging their data to produce a positive headline, their methodology and timing remain - as has been the case for a very long time - somewhat suspect. There's still a massive unemployment problem which was manifest by the enormous numbers of protesters that appeared in cities nationwide over the course of the week. Many of these mostly young people were out on the streets during daylight and into the evenings. It would be logical to conclude that the vast majority of them were not holding down full-time jobs.
The protests underscore two things, neither of which have anything remotely to do with the death of George Floyd or police brutality. First, the protests are more about income inequality than anything else. These young people from Generation Z and the last remnants of the Millennials are becoming more and more impatient with the structure of the economy, even though most of them don't recognize that as the overriding factor of their movement.
While the chants of "Black Lives Matter" and "No Justice, No Peace" make for sensationally simple-minded soundbites on the mainstream media's morning and nightly news broadcasts, the root of the frustration is an economy which provides fewer jobs than are needed for fewer hours per week, at low rates of pay while the purchasing power of the dollar continues to decline, especially in some very important areas, those being primarily, housing, education, and health care.
When economists decry that large government deficits will be bourn on the backs of future generations, what we are seeing today is the truth of that dictum as the youthful protesters on the street are the generation now paying for the deficits rung up from the 1970s and '80s. It's a continuing, systemic problem that isn't about to go away. People trying to enter the workforce and engage in meaningful careers are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet. Income has net kept pace with inflation over the past 40-50 years, dating back to when then-President Nixon took the country off permanently off the gold standard in August of 1971.
There are certainly many young people doing fine in their careers. Those with masters degrees or doctorates or well-honed skills make very good money, but at a considerable price. Their cost of eduction can be measured in their student loan debt. Since housing costs have risen to extreme levels with only a slight blip in 2008-09, the affordability of just plain living quarters tests their resolve. Those wishing to start families (a declining number) see health care costs spiraling out of control. And those are the lucky ones with good jobs and dual incomes.
The rest of their generation struggles with all of that at lower pay and onerous debt. Many Millennials and Generation Z youths live four and five to a single home or apartment. Most cannot save anything, much less even dream of owning their own homes. Pity those who have medical conditions. Most cannot afford $300-$600 a month premiums with $5-8,000 deductibles, so they go without. To a lesser degree, the same conditions affect the backend of the Baby Boomers and early Millennials who have lived their lives on the fringes of society.
It's a condition of perpetual decline when roughly half of adult Americans do not have any savings whatsoever, the result of massive, uncontrolled government deficits, fait currency backed by nothing, printed to the hilt causing the purchasing power of the almighty dollar to slide into obscurity. It's not going away. In fact, with the Federal Reserve now in the process of either buying up or backing every stock or bond issued, hoisting their balance sheet by more than three trillion dollars in just the past three months, the US economy has become one of very few haves and very many have-nots, manifesting itself as runaway inflation. Not confined to just the United States, the rest of the world is revolted and revolting. Under current fiscal and monetary policy, the entire planet is rapidly turning into an oversized Venezuela.
Dissatisfaction with the political process is the second tenet of the protesters root causes, dovetailing income inequality and unaffordable living conditions. Federal, state, and local governments are ill-equipped to handle even ordinary stresses. Now that unemployment is on the rise and inflation is taking hold, government resources are stretched beyond their means. When people needed food during the recent lockdowns, government made little effort to step in. Food banks, charities and private citizens stepped up to fill the void. Government is increasingly being viewed with a jaded eye, neither responsive to people's needs nor able to fulfill basic obligations. People are simply tired of paying taxes and getting little to nothing in return. Individual income tax revenues are falling off a cliff while government debt continues to rise at an accelerating pace. Nothing about the current social and political condition is sustainable over anything but the short term, which is why we are seeing one crisis after another, bailout after bailout, emergencies arising on a regular schedule.
The United States and the rest of the world cannot buy or borrow their way out of this situation with policies that only increase debt and the burden to society. President Trump and Wall Street can go giddy over the most recent jobs data, but the underlying problems continue to mount and they're not going away. For all the media hype and government high-fiving in the short term, there's a larger price to be paid down the road. After years of can-kicking of core fiscal and monetary issues, the road is coming to an end. Most people, politicians, and financial planners don't have sufficient knowledge or vision to see where this all leads, preference being given to the present.
The NASDAQ is less than one half of one percent away from breaking to a new all-time high (9838.37).
The S&P 500 is about six percent away from a record close (3393.52).
Stocks are likely to continue climbing to record highs, but a period of stagnation lies just ahead. The bear market which was cut short by the Fed's money-pumping mechanisms and the government's emergency spending bills was the shortest on record, lasting a mere five weeks. Another bear market will be coming, as this one was papered over with currency that has only declining value. Oil prices are back up and by Friday, interest rates on treasuries had exploded. The 10-year note yielded 0.66% on Monday. By Friday, they were at 0.91%. The 30-year yield went from 1.46% to 1.68% over the course of the week. Shorter-dated maturities remained low, steepening the curve.
The final question for economists is this: How can high unemployment and tighter currency (higher rates) co-exist. The answer is very simple. They can't. With business unwilling or unable to expand, few will be hiring. Unemployment will remain elevated until there's a clearing or restructure of debt and businesses see a rosier future.
The Federal Reserve and the federal government has a very big problem on their hands. The pandemic and street uprisings were just the opening chapters of a very long story.
Gold and silver saw gains early in the week, only to be hammered lower on the paper markets.
The latest prices on ebay for one troy once items (shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 24.95 / 42.50 / 28.47 / 27.75
1 oz silver bar: 24.99 / 45.00 / 29.09 / 27.90
1 oz gold coin: 1,780.00 / 1,882.00 / 1,823.11 / 1,823.69
1 oz gold bar: 1,755.95 / 1,826.92 / 1,792.96 / 1,794.40
Premiums for silver are, on average, ten dollars or more over spot. Gold premiums are $80-100 over spot.
Greg Mannarino expounds upon the jobs number being cooked, market response and his positioning:
At the Close, Friday, June 5, 2020:
Dow: 27,110.98, +829.16 (+3.15%)
NASDAQ: 9,814.08, +198.27 (+2.06%)
S&P 500: 3,193.93, +81.58 (+2.62%)
NYSE: 12,641.44, +354.46 (+2.88%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1727.87 (+6.81%)
NASDAQ: +324.21 (+3.42%)
S&P 500: +149.62 (+4.91%)
NYSE: +838.49 (+7.10%)
Friday, June 5, 2020
Markets Await May Jobs Data
Pretty slow day all around. Not even any good rioting or looting news. Everything's on hold until the May non-farm payroll report at 8:30 am ET Friday.
We will be out fishing. Sunday's WEEKEND WRAP will tell the whole story.
At the Close, Friday, June 4, 2020:
Dow: 26,281.82, +11.93 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: 9,615.81, -67.10 (-0.69%)
S&P 500: 3,112.35, -10.52 (-0.34%)
NYSE: 12,286.98, -15.21 (-0.12%)
We will be out fishing. Sunday's WEEKEND WRAP will tell the whole story.
At the Close, Friday, June 4, 2020:
Dow: 26,281.82, +11.93 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: 9,615.81, -67.10 (-0.69%)
S&P 500: 3,112.35, -10.52 (-0.34%)
NYSE: 12,286.98, -15.21 (-0.12%)
Thursday, June 4, 2020
Fed Expands MLF Program To States, But Rates Are Too High For Widespread Participation
The Federal Reserve's MLF (Municipal Liquidity Facility) is yet another way the nation's central bank is picking winners and losers in the struggle to survive economic collapse.
By offering fresh currency to struggling states and municipalities, the Fed - having already expanded their balance sheet by more than $3 trillion in just the past three months - says it wants to help out by buying issuance from states, cities and now, public transit, airports, toll facilities, and utilities, becoming the buyer and lender of last resort for everything from your local bus company to your regional energy supplier.
Not that the Fed may have some evil intentions of owning everything in America, they also want to be paid well for it as well, which is why most states won't take the Fed up on their generous offer.
Those states with poor credit ratings, like Illinois (BBB), New Jersey, California, and Kentucky are the likeliest candidates to use the facility, as they are offered better rates by the Fed than they would find in the usual muni bond market.
According to Standard and Poors, only nine states have credit ratings lower than AA, meaning the vast majority of states will not probably need backing from the Fed unless the muni markets seize up and rates skyrocket, a situation that was made somewhat more of a known risk during the coronavirus lockdowns.
Funding needs by the states are generally considered among the safest bonds available. In most cases they can be held tax-free, another reason for their popularity. Thus, most states are going to say "thanks, but no thanks" to the Fed, as their funding needs are going to be largely fulfilled in the open market.
A BofA Global Research report on Wednesday projected borrowing under the MLF with its current terms would only total $90 billion. That's out of $500 billion allocated to the program.
The Fed also said it will support lending to multi-state entities and revenue bond issuers, or RBIs.
"Eligible notes issued by eligible issuers that are not multi-state entities or designated RBIs will generally be expected to represent general obligations of the eligible issuer, or be backed by tax or other specified governmental revenues of the applicable state, city, or county,” the Fed said. “If the eligible issuer is an authority, agency, or other entity of a state, city, or county, such eligible issuer must either commit the credit of, or pledge revenues of, the state, city, or county, or the state, city, or county must guarantee the eligible notes issued by such issuer."
Again, the Fed wants its pound of flesh, in the above instances, via actual tax receipts or guarantees.
Because response to the program has been tepid, the Fed has also lowered the bar for participation, allowing states with smaller populations to make choices for eligibility based upon their own populations.
"A governor that has the ability to designate one designated city or designated county may choose either (i) the most populous city in his or her state that has less than 250,000 residents or (ii) the most populous county in his or her state that has less than 500,000 residents," the Fed said in a statement.
Illinois was the first issuer to access the Municipal Liquidity Facility, with a trade of $1.2 billion of one-year general obligation notes and a rate of 3.82%. That deal is expected to close June 5.
New York's MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority), which operates the city's subway and commuter trains, last week asked the Fed for direct access to the program. Legislation is pending.
In their grand scheme to save the world, the Fed may want to own everything or at least have every entity on the planet in debt to them. With interest rates in the toilet, they're going to have to offer better deals to execute their plan. With that knowledge in hand, how long will it be before negative rates become the de facto norm?
Stocks ramped higher on Wednesday after ADP released its May private sector employment report. The private firm said the econly lost 2.76 million jobs during the month, far less than expectations of 7.4 to 8.6 million, based on weekly reports of initial unemployment filings.
ADP's figures, so far from expectations, had investors drooling over prospects for a less-substantial number from the government's non-farm payroll data due out on Friday. The thinking is that many firms rehired people in May, offsetting the number of people who lost jobs or were temporarily furloughed. It's just another way for skewed data to shift sentiment away from the prospect of long-term damage done to the economy by the coronavirus and lockdowns and toward the event being a one-off from which the economy will quickly rebound.
With that in mind, gold and silver were slaughtered after making substantial gain in the paper markets. Supply issues remain, however, with premiums for both metals well above the paper prices and normal range. Gold, which was pushing $1750, fell back below $1690 on Wednesday. Silver retreated from as high as $18.30 to $17.64. Both gold and silver were rebounding in overnight trading.
Thursday's release of another round of initial unemployment claims is unlikely to have a material impact on stocks, which will probably take a breather in advance of Friday's May non-farm payrolls.
At the Close, Wednesday, June 3, 2020:
Dow: 26,269.89, +527.24 (+2.05%)
NASDAQ: 9,682.91, +74.54 (+0.78%)
S&P 500: 3,122.87, +42.05 (+1.36%)
NYSE: 12,302.19, +255.79 (+2.12%)
By offering fresh currency to struggling states and municipalities, the Fed - having already expanded their balance sheet by more than $3 trillion in just the past three months - says it wants to help out by buying issuance from states, cities and now, public transit, airports, toll facilities, and utilities, becoming the buyer and lender of last resort for everything from your local bus company to your regional energy supplier.
Not that the Fed may have some evil intentions of owning everything in America, they also want to be paid well for it as well, which is why most states won't take the Fed up on their generous offer.
Those states with poor credit ratings, like Illinois (BBB), New Jersey, California, and Kentucky are the likeliest candidates to use the facility, as they are offered better rates by the Fed than they would find in the usual muni bond market.
According to Standard and Poors, only nine states have credit ratings lower than AA, meaning the vast majority of states will not probably need backing from the Fed unless the muni markets seize up and rates skyrocket, a situation that was made somewhat more of a known risk during the coronavirus lockdowns.
Funding needs by the states are generally considered among the safest bonds available. In most cases they can be held tax-free, another reason for their popularity. Thus, most states are going to say "thanks, but no thanks" to the Fed, as their funding needs are going to be largely fulfilled in the open market.
A BofA Global Research report on Wednesday projected borrowing under the MLF with its current terms would only total $90 billion. That's out of $500 billion allocated to the program.
The Fed also said it will support lending to multi-state entities and revenue bond issuers, or RBIs.
"Eligible notes issued by eligible issuers that are not multi-state entities or designated RBIs will generally be expected to represent general obligations of the eligible issuer, or be backed by tax or other specified governmental revenues of the applicable state, city, or county,” the Fed said. “If the eligible issuer is an authority, agency, or other entity of a state, city, or county, such eligible issuer must either commit the credit of, or pledge revenues of, the state, city, or county, or the state, city, or county must guarantee the eligible notes issued by such issuer."
Again, the Fed wants its pound of flesh, in the above instances, via actual tax receipts or guarantees.
Because response to the program has been tepid, the Fed has also lowered the bar for participation, allowing states with smaller populations to make choices for eligibility based upon their own populations.
"A governor that has the ability to designate one designated city or designated county may choose either (i) the most populous city in his or her state that has less than 250,000 residents or (ii) the most populous county in his or her state that has less than 500,000 residents," the Fed said in a statement.
Illinois was the first issuer to access the Municipal Liquidity Facility, with a trade of $1.2 billion of one-year general obligation notes and a rate of 3.82%. That deal is expected to close June 5.
New York's MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority), which operates the city's subway and commuter trains, last week asked the Fed for direct access to the program. Legislation is pending.
In their grand scheme to save the world, the Fed may want to own everything or at least have every entity on the planet in debt to them. With interest rates in the toilet, they're going to have to offer better deals to execute their plan. With that knowledge in hand, how long will it be before negative rates become the de facto norm?
Stocks ramped higher on Wednesday after ADP released its May private sector employment report. The private firm said the econly lost 2.76 million jobs during the month, far less than expectations of 7.4 to 8.6 million, based on weekly reports of initial unemployment filings.
ADP's figures, so far from expectations, had investors drooling over prospects for a less-substantial number from the government's non-farm payroll data due out on Friday. The thinking is that many firms rehired people in May, offsetting the number of people who lost jobs or were temporarily furloughed. It's just another way for skewed data to shift sentiment away from the prospect of long-term damage done to the economy by the coronavirus and lockdowns and toward the event being a one-off from which the economy will quickly rebound.
With that in mind, gold and silver were slaughtered after making substantial gain in the paper markets. Supply issues remain, however, with premiums for both metals well above the paper prices and normal range. Gold, which was pushing $1750, fell back below $1690 on Wednesday. Silver retreated from as high as $18.30 to $17.64. Both gold and silver were rebounding in overnight trading.
Thursday's release of another round of initial unemployment claims is unlikely to have a material impact on stocks, which will probably take a breather in advance of Friday's May non-farm payrolls.
At the Close, Wednesday, June 3, 2020:
Dow: 26,269.89, +527.24 (+2.05%)
NASDAQ: 9,682.91, +74.54 (+0.78%)
S&P 500: 3,122.87, +42.05 (+1.36%)
NYSE: 12,302.19, +255.79 (+2.12%)
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
Nothing Can Stop The Mighty Fed Printing Press And Back Room Bookkeepers
The protesting, rioting, and looting was noticeably on the downswing Tuesday night. It could be seen as a sign that cities and states have things under control or just a lull in the overall action. Depending on location, it's likely a little bit of each.
Before the curfews took effect, the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street managed to enrich themselves and shareholders just a little bit more, sending stocks through the proverbial roof, with most of the gains happening in the final half-hour of trading. The Dow, for instance, was up about 100 points at 3:30 pm ET. By the closing bell, it had gained 267 points.
Apparently, there's little to no downside for corporations no matter what happens in the real world. Pandemic? No problem. Print more. Widespread civil unrest? Meh. Print more. Supposedly, a nuclear holocaust would send the major indices to record highs.
What's amazing about the rally since late March is not that it has come with a background of lockdowns, over 100,000 deaths, street protests, rioting, looting, and assorted public dislocation, but that stocks were overvalued even at the low point. First quarter earnings reports were dismal, yet stocks continued their ascent to nosebleed levels that are now more overvalued than almost any time before.
The current CAPE ratio (Robert Shiller's 10-year P/E ratio) stands at 28.96. For purposes of comparison, the same ratio just prior to the 1929 crash was about 30. The figure before the panic of 2008 was around 27.50. Only the dotcom era produced a record high higher than Black Tuesday and the most recent levels, when it peaked at 44.19. For reference, the median CAPE is 15.78.
What we have is a market of zombie corporations controlled by financial manipulators, expert at buying back shares with borrowed money at near-zero interest, limiting the number of shares outstanding to goose the price of the stock higher. Many companies don't really make money anymore. They just play games with the books to make it look like they do.
In the background, other elements of the price-fixing regime that has become Wall Street back rooms, the NY Fed and controllers at Treasury and monolithic banking operations (primary dealers, but mostly JP Morgan Chase) keep gold and silver under wraps on the COMEX, as they did on Tuesday, slapping down the recent runaway rally in precious metals. That's a necessary evil under the control economy because the Fed doesn't like competition for their Federal Reserve (debt) Notes and gold and silver are real money, rather than just currency, like every other sovereign fiat.
Also well under the control mechanism is the price of oil, which is forbidden to fall to prices that comport to affordability for drivers of gas-powered vehicles. There was a brief opportunity to save a little at the pump, but that's now over, with oil pushing toward $40 a barrel. Truth be told, oil is old news. Renewables have taken a serious bite into the overall market share, especially solar, as advancement in solar panels have made self-generated electricity as cheap as what's supplied by fossil fuel plants and in some instances, cheaper.
The price of oil can go to $200, but people with solar installations and hybrid or EVs (electronic vehicles) will barely notice. What they will notice is the slowdown of the outlying economy, which would be crushed under regular unleaded at $6 or $7 a gallon.
There's no stopping this juggernaut monstrosity of a stock market nor the destructive money printing of the Federal Reserve. If and when stocks nosedive again, the Fed will just increase its balance sheet another for or five trillion, loan out money at negative rates and call it a day. By then, there will be no economy, just some cheap, fake import from China masquerading as a market.
Later this morning, ADP will release May private payroll numbers, which will be a disaster and a presage of Friday's non-farm payroll report for May. None of it will matter. Even with unemployment at 20%, stocks will still stroke higher. Welcome to the new world of finance, where nothing matters other than questionable or fraudulent bookkeeping and willful ignorance.
At the close, Tuesday, June 2, 2020:
Dow: 25,742.65, +267.63 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: 9,608.38, +56.33 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: 3,080.82, +25.09 (+0.82%)
NYSE: 12,046.41, +146.17 (+1.23%)
Before the curfews took effect, the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street managed to enrich themselves and shareholders just a little bit more, sending stocks through the proverbial roof, with most of the gains happening in the final half-hour of trading. The Dow, for instance, was up about 100 points at 3:30 pm ET. By the closing bell, it had gained 267 points.
Apparently, there's little to no downside for corporations no matter what happens in the real world. Pandemic? No problem. Print more. Widespread civil unrest? Meh. Print more. Supposedly, a nuclear holocaust would send the major indices to record highs.
What's amazing about the rally since late March is not that it has come with a background of lockdowns, over 100,000 deaths, street protests, rioting, looting, and assorted public dislocation, but that stocks were overvalued even at the low point. First quarter earnings reports were dismal, yet stocks continued their ascent to nosebleed levels that are now more overvalued than almost any time before.
The current CAPE ratio (Robert Shiller's 10-year P/E ratio) stands at 28.96. For purposes of comparison, the same ratio just prior to the 1929 crash was about 30. The figure before the panic of 2008 was around 27.50. Only the dotcom era produced a record high higher than Black Tuesday and the most recent levels, when it peaked at 44.19. For reference, the median CAPE is 15.78.
What we have is a market of zombie corporations controlled by financial manipulators, expert at buying back shares with borrowed money at near-zero interest, limiting the number of shares outstanding to goose the price of the stock higher. Many companies don't really make money anymore. They just play games with the books to make it look like they do.
In the background, other elements of the price-fixing regime that has become Wall Street back rooms, the NY Fed and controllers at Treasury and monolithic banking operations (primary dealers, but mostly JP Morgan Chase) keep gold and silver under wraps on the COMEX, as they did on Tuesday, slapping down the recent runaway rally in precious metals. That's a necessary evil under the control economy because the Fed doesn't like competition for their Federal Reserve (debt) Notes and gold and silver are real money, rather than just currency, like every other sovereign fiat.
Also well under the control mechanism is the price of oil, which is forbidden to fall to prices that comport to affordability for drivers of gas-powered vehicles. There was a brief opportunity to save a little at the pump, but that's now over, with oil pushing toward $40 a barrel. Truth be told, oil is old news. Renewables have taken a serious bite into the overall market share, especially solar, as advancement in solar panels have made self-generated electricity as cheap as what's supplied by fossil fuel plants and in some instances, cheaper.
The price of oil can go to $200, but people with solar installations and hybrid or EVs (electronic vehicles) will barely notice. What they will notice is the slowdown of the outlying economy, which would be crushed under regular unleaded at $6 or $7 a gallon.
There's no stopping this juggernaut monstrosity of a stock market nor the destructive money printing of the Federal Reserve. If and when stocks nosedive again, the Fed will just increase its balance sheet another for or five trillion, loan out money at negative rates and call it a day. By then, there will be no economy, just some cheap, fake import from China masquerading as a market.
Later this morning, ADP will release May private payroll numbers, which will be a disaster and a presage of Friday's non-farm payroll report for May. None of it will matter. Even with unemployment at 20%, stocks will still stroke higher. Welcome to the new world of finance, where nothing matters other than questionable or fraudulent bookkeeping and willful ignorance.
At the close, Tuesday, June 2, 2020:
Dow: 25,742.65, +267.63 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: 9,608.38, +56.33 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: 3,080.82, +25.09 (+0.82%)
NYSE: 12,046.41, +146.17 (+1.23%)
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