Earnings Forecasts Being Slashed or Pulled by Reporting Companies; Tariff Concerns Paramount; Volatility High as Russia Bombs Kiev

Following two days of relentless rallying replete with tweets, twists, and turns on every other word uttered by either the President or his Treasury Secretary, traders are tuned in Thursday to see what will move markets next.

With a slew of earnings reports hitting the street after the bell Wednesday and prior to the open Thursday, there may be some skepticism with many companies pulling guidance or at least warning about lowered profits ahead due to tariffs.

Prior to the open, a number of companies reported first quarter earnings results, among them Southwest Airline (LUV), being sent lower by 3-4 percent in pre-market trading due to the company pulling forward guidance and announcing a reduction in flights for the second half of 2025. Likewise, American Airlines (AAL) withdrew its guidance, citing economic uncertainty. shares are flat. AAL trades at less than $10 per share.

Elsewhere, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which reported after Wednesday's closing bell, saw same store sales decline slightly, though the company topped EPS estimates. After closing about 3.5% higher on Wednesday, shares of the stock are down by roughly the same percentage pre-open.

Pepsico's (PEP) net income fell 10% to $1.8 billion. Adjusted for one-time items, PepsiCo earned $1.48 per share, just below the $1.49 analysts forecast. The company lowered its full-year earnings expectations in its earnings announcement Thursday morning, citing increased costs from tariffs and a pullback in consumer spending. One would hardly be surprised that branded chips at $5 a bag or a six-pack of Pepsi at $4 might be behind consumer reluctance. The company reported exceptionally-high profits last year as it raised prices on most of its offerings. Now that consumers are tapped out, they're not buying much of anything beyond absolute essentials.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) announced quarterly EPS of 0.34, missing expectations. Shares are falling by four percent or more.

Drugmaker Merck (MRK) posted a small beat with EPS of $2.22 but was cautious in its forward outlook. Shares are slightly higher - less than 2% - in early trading.

With earnings serving as a backdrop, stock futures were mixed, with Dow futures off 150 points, but NASDAQ futures higher by 35, and S&P futures flat.

Gold has rebounded to $3,355 this morning, and silver finally caught a bid, approaching $34 per ounce. WTI crud oil is up nearly $1.00 early, though it appears to be in no hurry to move much off recent lows.

On the geo-political front, Russia has launched missile attacks at Ukraine's capital of Kiev, even while the U.S. continues to dawdle over ineffective offers of cease fires and peace deals. President Trump responded with a post on his Truth Social that implored the Russian president to tone it down. The President actually used the phrase, "Vladimir! Stop!" in what should likely be seen as nothing more than posturing.

President Trump is likely to be perfectly content with pulling back from negotiations and allowing Russia to do as it pleases with its war-torn neighbor. As cynical as that may sound, U.S. policy has failed miserably - possibly intentionally - and Ukraine's leader Zelensky has resisted any and all attempts to forge some kind of peace initiative. The option of pulling back on U.S. financial and military support is likely the best option even though it allows Russia to dictate terms, given they are winning the war in the first place.

European allies are out of answers, out of touch and out of time. All their bombastic boasting about defeating Russia is now falling on deaf ears, since the EU and NATO collective cannot muster enough materiel or moral courage to continue arming the Ukrainians. Effectively, Project Ukraine - which was a fool's errand from the very start - is over. Russia will win the war as support for Ukraine dwindles to nothing.

Trump, having little to lose politically since it was not his war, will simply withdraw all support and walk away, then try to patch things up with Russia once the dust settles over Kiev.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 23, 2025:
Dow: 39,606.57, +419.59 (+1.07%)
NASDAQ: 16,708.05, +407.63 (+2.50%)
S&P 500: 5,375.86, +88.10 (+1.67%)
NYSE Composite: 18,631.09, +175.95 (+0.95%)

Algos Gone Wild: Trump Tweaks Tuesday Turn-Around; Stocks Roar Higher; Gold Price Slashed; Bitcoin Rips Higher

In the days before headline-grabbing computer algorithms controlled 80-90% of all trading (or maybe in some alternate universe), stock jocks relied upon metrics like Price-earnings ratios, profitability, a company's future prospects and reasoned analysis to pick stocks.

Those days are long gone, replaced by instantaneous market reactions to social media, news reports, and associated garble that passes for journalism or analytical process. The past few weeks and months have been peppered by all manner of market-moving nonsense, from Trump's tariffs to his supposed desire to fire Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Tuesday's trading was punctuatd by a leaked statement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who opined upon progress in trade negotiations, and one from the President himself, backtracking on his prior statement about Powell, saying he was happy with the Fed Chair in his present position.

No doubt there were some sharp tacks making oodles of dirty money on the massive upside, as well as on the way down on Monday, which took stocks close to their April 8 lows. All the algos do is provide neat entry and exit points for wall Street's horde of day traders and high anxiety for smaller investors who are stuck in passive funds that are forced to go with the flow rather than profit from volatility in either direction.

Thus, while Wednesday is shaping up to be a huge lift with stock futures up sharply, there's just as good a chance that the cash market will move equally in either direction, either today, tomorrow, or Friday and into next week. It's become fairly obvious that the stock market isn't for everyone, especially for those with plans that stretch out more than a few days, like the majority of 401k and IRA holders.

With stocks getting a huge boost on Tuesday, gold dropped like the heavyweight it is, breaking above $3,500 to as low as $3,304 early Wednesday morning. Seemingly unaffected by stock movement in either direction, Bitcoin has rocketed from a low of $84,500 on Sunday morning to as high as $94,261 Wednesday morning. Whether seen as a speculative investment (gamble) or an alternative to the U.S. dollar (which has been pounded lower by 10% the past six weeks), bitcoin fits the bill and has revived itself just in time to take advantage of Wild West Days on Wall Street, a carnival that's unlikely to end well for everybody.

In the real world, there are winners and losers. On Wall Street and in the crypto-verse, there apparently are only winners. Just for good measure, Trump spoke before the market open, saying, "145% is too high, it will come down substantially," speaking of the level of tariffs on Chinese imports.

Manipulated stock market volatility doesn't get any worse than this.

It's just too easy. Still a bear market, though.

At the Close, Tuesday, April 22, 2025:
Dow: 39,186.98, +1,016.57 (+2.66%)
NASDAQ: 16,300.42, +429.52 (+2.71%)
S&P 500: 5,287.76, +129.56 (+2.51%)
NYSE Composite: 18,455.14, +422.77 (+2.34%)

Stocks Whacked to Open Week; Gold Rockets Higher, Reaches $3,500 Overnight; Silver Likely Being Sold to Raise Cash

It’s becoming clear that the declines in stocks and rising interest rates on longer-dated bonds are not due to simply concern over tariffs. There are larger matters at hand. Judging by the extraordinary gains in gold, a re-ordering of the entire global financial system seems to be in play, and, perhaps even something as elemental as what constitutes "money" is about to be re-evaluated.

Thus, passive investors, whether they realize it or not, may be holding onto dead money. The market has been proving them wrong and taking them to the cleaners since mid-February. Monday's bloodbath wasn't the consequence of Trump mentioning that he may be considering firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. It was much deeper than that. Trump may, at any given moment, express a desire to abolish the Federal Reserve completely and return the United States to sound money, likely backed by gold. Whether silver has a place in his machinations remains to be seen, though the recent evidence suggests not.

Having little to no input into what kinds of investments people's IRAs or 401ks are making, these long-term managed accounts are at the mercy of fund managers and the market, a doubly-troubling condition.

Contributing to the overall sense of gloom on Wall Street are recent earnings reports, with more than a few companies lowering their revenue and profit estimates. There is simply too much uncertainty over the future for company executives to compose realistic plans for growth or expansion.

Earlier Tuesday morning Verizon (VZ) reported earnings above estimates but also saw a decline in subscribers to their various cellular services, sending the stock down more than two percent. On the flip side, Synchrony Financial, a sub-prime lender, saw lower charge-offs and delinquencies, somewhat bucking recent trends. Shares of the company are cautiously positive, up less than one percent.

Gold continued its rapid assent, topping $3,500 early Tuesday morning before the usual gang of thieves at the COMEX knocked it back down about $60. Silver remains moribund, unable to follow gold's lead, the gold:silver ratio at an eye-watering 105.17.

What may be occurring is a selloff of silver holdings by firms in need of quick cash, either to cover margin calls or shore up liquidity after taking massive losses. Usually, when the markets are as stressed as they are now, both gold and silver would be sold off to raise cash. At this time, nobody is letting go of their gold, only silver, which might explain to some degree why silver has not followed gold's move higher.

As long as there is confusion and stress and stocks under pressure, silver seems likely to suffer. When it breaks free - and it eventually will - the gains are likely to be spectacular.

At the Close, Monday, April 21, 2025:
Dow: 38,170.41, -971.82 (-2.48%)
NASDAQ: 15,870.90, -415.55 (-2.55%)
S&P 500: 5,158.20, -124.50 (-2.36%)
NYSE Composite: 18,032.37, -334.75 (-1.82%)

WEEKEND WRAP: More Stress, Less Money; Global Shrinkage a la Trump Tariffs; Gold Soars; Bond Spreads Blown Out; Gas Prices Down

The week just passed was slightly less volatile than the previous few, though still painful for equity investors.

Gold set new record highs, oil rebounded but gas was cheaper, trade deals are being formulated, Ukraine is closer to a resolution, and the Middle East may become less challenging as President Trump continues to forge economic and peace policies.

Stocks

The NASDAQ and S&P finished with their seventh weekly loss in the last nine, the Dow its sixth loser in the last nine. Putting aside tariffs and politics, early earnings reports for the first quarter have been fairly innocuous, without major surprises to the upside, though lower revenue and profit forecasts have been prominent. Whether or not those are warranted - many based on perceptions of coming tariff turmoil - remains to be seen. The U.S. economy continues to chug along.

The week ahead will feature earnings reports from some of America's most influential companies including Lockheed Martin, Verizon, General Dynamics, Alphabet, Boeing, Pepsico, Tesla and others (see list below).

On the data front, New Home Sales for March will be the focus Wednesday along with the weekly EIA energy report.

In addition to Thursday's regular reading of weekly unemployment claims, March existing home sales, durable goods, and a report by the Kansas City Fed may provide additional information on the overall health of the U.S. economy.

The week encompassing April 28 to May 2 will be more impactful, with the first estimate 1st quarter GDP announced Wednesday, April 30 and April Non-farm Payrolls Friday, May 2.

The week just ahead will feature earnings reports from the following (and many more):

Monday: (before open) Comerica (CMA), Capital City Bank (CCBG), HBT Financial (HBT); (after close) Calix (CALX), Flexsteel (FLXS)

Tuesday: (before open) Danahr (DHR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), GE Aerospace (GE), Verizon (VZ); (after close) Capital One (COF), Tesla (TSLA), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), SAP (SAP), Baker Hughes (BKR), Enphase (ENPH)

Wednesday: (before open) AT&T (T), General Dynamics (GD), Nextera Energy (NEE), Boeing (BA), Phillip Morris (PM); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Texas Instruments (TXN), Chipole Mexican Grill (CMG), IBM (IBM), O'Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY)

Thursday: (before open) Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines (AAL), Pepsico (PEP), Dow (DOW), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Valero (VLO), Union Pacific (UNP), Merck (MRK), Nokia (NOK), Freeport MacMoran (FCX); (after close) Alphabet (GOOG), T-Mobile (TMUS), Intel (INTC), Skechers (SKX), Weyerhaeuser (WY)

Friday: (before open) Abbvie (ABBV), Phillips 66 (PSX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL).

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
03/14/2025	4.37	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.30	4.29	4.09
03/21/2025	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.33	4.29	4.26	4.04
03/28/2025	4.38	4.35	4.35	4.33	4.30	4.26	4.04
04/04/2025	4.36	4.35	4.36	4.28	4.25	4.14	3.86
04/11/2025	4.37	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.21	4.04
04/17/2025	4.36	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.22	3.99

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
03/14/2025	4.02	4.00	4.09	4.20	4.31	4.65	4.62
03/21/2025	3.94	3.92	4.00	4.12	4.25	4.60	4.59
03/28/2025	3.89	3.91	3.98	4.11	4.27	4.65	4.64
04/04/2025	3.68	3.66	3.72	3.84	4.01	4.44	4.41
04/11/2025	3.96	3.98	4.15	4.32	4.48	4.91	4.85
04/17/2025	3.81	3.82	3.95	4.13	4.34	4.82	4.80

Spreads continue to blow out, with 2s-10s at +53 and full spectrum at +44, the former the highest in years, the latter the highest since January 10. This indicates some stresses in the system, given credit card and auto loan delinquency rates are on the rise and mortgage foreclosures are also rising, which, with home prices at unaffordable levels for just about everybody except the ultra-wealthy would figure. The chances of a 2008-like credit event are growing, though there have been no warnings shots, such as the demise of Bear Stearns in advance of the Lehman/2008 crisis.

There is still rampant speculation that some hedge funds took severe losses in prior weeks and were on the verge of major unwinding. Those fears remain prevalent. Further declines in stock markets could trigger a cascading effect that spills over into fixed income, exposing unhedged bond investors.

Meanwhile, President Trump continues to threaten Fed Chair Jerome Powell for "playing politics" with interest rates. The President wants them lower. Powell, for now, isn't budging. Neither is China per trade. These forces are coming to a head and the outcome could not be more clouded.

Doug Noland writes extensively on the current climate in his weekly commentary on Credit Bubble Bulletin. His insights are valuable and about as close to a "must read" as he's ever produced.

There are serious problems underlying not just the U.S. economy, but the entire global monetary and financial structure. If it seems like things are breaking, it's because they are. Currently, there's a quietude about catastrophic conditions, but that's likely to begin changing next Wednesday (April 30) when first quarter GDP is released.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44

Oil/Gas

$64.45 was the closing price of WTI crude oil on Friday, up nearly $3 from last week's closeout price of $61.48. Whether that was just a dead cat bounce off essentially a four-year low or the beginning of inflationary pressure starting within the energy complex remains to be seen. However, from a chartist perspective, the long term trend is clearly lower. Last week's gain will probably not last long. There is still too much oil and insufficient demand. Economies everywhere - especially China, to say nothing of Europe - are slowing and stimulus based on painful deficit spending are unlikely to resolve anybody's problems.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, down four cents from last week and 10 cents from two weeks out. The expectation is for the national average to fall below $3.00 within the next month and possibly fall further as a combination of reduced demand and oversupply takes hold. The national average could fall to levels not seen since the 2010s, prior to the pandemic and the four years of Biden's "green" policies.

This chart via Gasbuddy.com provides clarity. The national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas were never above $3.00 during Trump's first term and were almost always over $3.00 six months after Joe Biden stepped into the White House. That unusually-high inflationary impulse is being forcibly reversed.

Gas prices were lower across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.79 down seven cents on the week. Mississippi took back the low spot, at $2.65, edging out Texas, Tennessee ($2.66), and Oklahoma, followed by South Carolina ($2.68), Louisiana ($2.73), Alabama ($2.74), Arkansas ($2.75) and Kentucky ($2.76). Georgia continues to fall, down from $2.95 last week to $2.88. Florida dipped to $2.96.

Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.35) and Maryland ($3.12), New England and East coast states all range between $2.82 (New Hampshire) and $3.06 (Vermont). New York was down three cents, at $3.04. Almost all of the Northeast is headed below $3.00. Most states - Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts - are already there.

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.35), though the price is another six cents lower than last week. Kansas ($2.82) is the lowest, Missouri ($2.86), and Iowa ($2.99) are under $3.00 a gallon, along with Iowa and Wisconsin ($3.95), and Nebraska and South Dakota ($3.96). The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.27. Oregon ($3.91) and Nevada ($3.82) are already seeing price declines. Arizona checks in at $3.33, though neighboring New Mexico is a bargain at $2.79. Idaho is at $3.28, while neighboring Utah is $3.27, both higher this week.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at a few more states this week, with at last 25 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are very good now, though it's likely going to be a little while before Trump gets them down where he'd like them, with a national average around $2.60 to $2.75, possibly even lower.

Bitcoin

This week: $84,240.61
Last week: $84,401.71
2 weeks ago: $78,955.22
6 months ago: $68,890.14
One year ago: $66,402.03
Five years ago: $7,545.21

Bitcoin continues to bounce around, acting like a store of value against declining stock prices and lower U.S. dollar. It's a complete scam.

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. It's possible that the entire crypto space could implode quicker than the general economy. In fact, much of the space is already suffering and it could be a trigger to a wider credit event. One example is Ethereum, down 53% year-to-date. The fraud in crypto as a general economic concept may be beginning to be exposed. This could get even uglier. If Bitcoin falls, it takes the whole universe of thousands of alt-coins and tokens with it.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 102.68; last week: 101.12

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20
Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00
Gold price 4/6: $3,056.10
Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30

Silver price 3/23: $33.29
Silver price 3/30: $34.82
Silver price 4/6: $29.52
Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54

Gold just keeps going higher, and if that tells us anything, it's that the world is on a precipice. Gold gets bought when stress becomes overwhelming and that's where we are. Silver cold explode higher, but that would entail the end of the COMEX, LBMA, and much of the world's economic realities.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	38.00	51.99	41.78	40.65
1 oz silver bar:	33.00	53.99	43.08	43.04
1 oz gold coin:	3,325.00	3,597.09	3,485.68	3,491.16
1 oz gold bar:	3,435.00	3,508.60	3,474.56	3,471.57

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained over the week, to $42.14, up $1.00 from the April 13 price of $41.14 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Happy Easter and Happy 136th Birthday Adolph Hitler (20 April 1889 - 30 April 1945). (One wonders if he was on the Social Security list uncovered by DOGE). In just 10 days, the planet can celebrate the 80th anniversary of his passing, whatever that's worth.

At the Close, Thursday, April 17, 2025:
Dow: 39,142.23, -527.16 (-1.33%)
NASDAQ: 16,286.45, -20.71 (-0.13%)
S&P 500: 5,282.70, +7.00 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 18,367.12, +121.47 (+0.67%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1070.48 (-2.66%)
NASDAQ: -438.01 (-2.62%)
S&P 500: -80.66 (-1.50%)
NYSE Composite: +147.47 (+0.81%)
Dow Transports: +29.23 (+0.22%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Looking at Another Losing Week (7 of 9 for NASDAQ, S&P) with Exchanges Closing for Good Friday; Gold Rips Higher

Stocks took another beating on Wednesday. Without a doubt, something is not right. Probably a lot of things aren't right. President Trump's unpredictable nature has the world on edge, and, as has been reiterated here more than enough times, markets do not like uncertainty.

The brightest spot in the universe right now is probably the price of gold. It simply continues to rise and rise. Year-to-date, gold is up - at the overnight price of $3,364.20 - 29 percent, which is extraordinary and likely not yet finished. In consideration of the instability in world politics today, the price of gold could easily surpass $4000, even $5000, this year.

The price of gold is giving every indication that the global economy is about to undergo a radical redesign, one that has gold at its core, because, more than 110 years since the establishment of the U.S. Federal Reserve, fiat currencies and the people who support them and suppress the value of true money - gold and silver - have had their day, run their course, and are ready to be put out to pasture, or, even better, led, kicking and screaming to the financial slaughterhouse.

Conditions in the world are out of balance. The U.S. has lost prestige, due to its inability to honor its commitments. Europe is ready for a shallow grave. The days of colonial power having long passed, Asia is rising, as it should, shaking off the chains of central banks, free-floating currencies, fractional reserves, debt issuance and counterfeiting.

The world needs stability rather than chaos, understanding instead of conflict, and, peace, not war.

What is alarming is that major nations are gearing up for enlargement of military commitments. Russia is conscripting more young men than it has in 40 years. The proposed U.S. defense budget is over $1 trillion. China, already far ahead of its peers, has amassed the world's largest naval fleet and stands ready to defend itself from any and all who might oppose it.

China's dominance in trade and finance is unmistakable. Certain elements of the United States government are having a difficult time accepting that. There are still far too many neocon voices and actors in the U.S. government, moron war hawks bent on domination and supremacy. It's not likely to work out well for them or for the American people.

So now, rather than bombs and shells and death, the two great powers wage economic war. For now, that's fine, but one wonders where it leads.

After markets closed Wednesday, Alcoa (AA) reported first quarter EPS that beat estimates, though revenue fell short. Shares were flat after markets closed.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) projected second quarter sales above estimates. Shares rose four percent in pre-market trading.

United Health (UNH) sent Dow futures plummeting Thursday morning, as the company reported EPS of $7.20 that was short of estimates and lowered its fiscal year 2025 estimate of adjusted EPS to 26.00 to 26.50, well below consensus projections of $29.74.

Shares of the Dow heavyweight were down 20 percent or more, with Dow futures down nearly 600 points (1.46%).

Another Dow component, American Express (AXP), posted solid numbers as consumer spending remained robust. The stock was trending slightly lower in pre-market trade.

DR Horton (DHI) posted fiscal second quarter EPS of $2.58, behind estimates for $2.67. The largest U.S. homebuilder also slashed fiscal 2025 forecasts, citing lagging demand for new homes. Shares of the company slipped three percent pre-market.

Regions Financial (RF), Ally (ALLY), and Fifth Third Bank (FITB) all reported figures mostly in line with estimates. After Thursday's close, Netflix (NFLX) reports. No big names are reporting Friday, as the market is closed in observance of Good Friday.

The shortened week probably is a relief to many traders weary from continued volatility, but it also pushed roughly $2 trillion in options expiring to Thursday, which might trigger even more volatility as another rough week comes to a close.

As of Wednesday's closing bell, the Dow is down 543 points for the week and likely to fall even further. The NASDAQ is down 417, approaching its seventh weekly loss in the last nine. The S&P is down 87 points for the week, which, like the NASDAQ would be seven losers out of the last nine.

Stock futures near 9:00 am ET: Dow: -552; NASDAQ: +150; S&P: +28.

Initial unemployment claims were flat, but Housing Starts were down 11% month on month, but Building Permits were up 1.6%, a very mixed picture.

Gold is near record highs, hitting $3365 overnight. Silver got as high as $33.01, but has since tailed off. It will be interesting to track gold and silver prices on Friday, with U.S. markets shut down.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 16, 2025:
Dow: 39,669.39, -699.57 (-1.73%)
NASDAQ: 16,307.16, -516.01 (-3.07%)
S&P 500: 5,275.70, -120.93 (-2.24%)
NYSE Composite: 18,245.65, -184.39 (-1.00%)