Gold set new record highs, oil rebounded but gas was cheaper, trade deals are being formulated, Ukraine is closer to a resolution, and the Middle East may become less challenging as President Trump continues to forge economic and peace policies.
Stocks
The NASDAQ and S&P finished with their seventh weekly loss in the last nine, the Dow its sixth loser in the last nine. Putting aside tariffs and politics, early earnings reports for the first quarter have been fairly innocuous, without major surprises to the upside, though lower revenue and profit forecasts have been prominent. Whether or not those are warranted - many based on perceptions of coming tariff turmoil - remains to be seen. The U.S. economy continues to chug along.
The week ahead will feature earnings reports from some of America's most influential companies including Lockheed Martin, Verizon, General Dynamics, Alphabet, Boeing, Pepsico, Tesla and others (see list below).
On the data front, New Home Sales for March will be the focus Wednesday along with the weekly EIA energy report.
In addition to Thursday's regular reading of weekly unemployment claims, March existing home sales, durable goods, and a report by the Kansas City Fed may provide additional information on the overall health of the U.S. economy.
The week encompassing April 28 to May 2 will be more impactful, with the first estimate 1st quarter GDP announced Wednesday, April 30 and April Non-farm Payrolls Friday, May 2.
The week just ahead will feature earnings reports from the following (and many more):
Monday: (before open) Comerica (CMA), Capital City Bank (CCBG), HBT Financial (HBT); (after close) Calix (CALX), Flexsteel (FLXS)
Tuesday: (before open) Danahr (DHR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), GE Aerospace (GE), Verizon (VZ); (after close) Capital One (COF), Tesla (TSLA), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), SAP (SAP), Baker Hughes (BKR), Enphase (ENPH)
Wednesday: (before open) AT&T (T), General Dynamics (GD), Nextera Energy (NEE), Boeing (BA), Phillip Morris (PM); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Texas Instruments (TXN), Chipole Mexican Grill (CMG), IBM (IBM), O'Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY)
Thursday: (before open) Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines (AAL), Pepsico (PEP), Dow (DOW), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Valero (VLO), Union Pacific (UNP), Merck (MRK), Nokia (NOK), Freeport MacMoran (FCX); (after close) Alphabet (GOOG), T-Mobile (TMUS), Intel (INTC), Skechers (SKX), Weyerhaeuser (WY)
Friday: (before open) Abbvie (ABBV), Phillips 66 (PSX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL).
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 03/14/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.30 | 4.29 | 4.09 |
| 03/21/2025 | 4.36 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.29 | 4.26 | 4.04 |
| 03/28/2025 | 4.38 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.33 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.04 |
| 04/04/2025 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.28 | 4.25 | 4.14 | 3.86 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4.37 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.21 | 4.04 |
| 04/17/2025 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.22 | 3.99 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 03/14/2025 | 4.02 | 4.00 | 4.09 | 4.20 | 4.31 | 4.65 | 4.62 |
| 03/21/2025 | 3.94 | 3.92 | 4.00 | 4.12 | 4.25 | 4.60 | 4.59 |
| 03/28/2025 | 3.89 | 3.91 | 3.98 | 4.11 | 4.27 | 4.65 | 4.64 |
| 04/04/2025 | 3.68 | 3.66 | 3.72 | 3.84 | 4.01 | 4.44 | 4.41 |
| 04/11/2025 | 3.96 | 3.98 | 4.15 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 4.91 | 4.85 |
| 04/17/2025 | 3.81 | 3.82 | 3.95 | 4.13 | 4.34 | 4.82 | 4.80 |
Spreads continue to blow out, with 2s-10s at +53 and full spectrum at +44, the former the highest in years, the latter the highest since January 10. This indicates some stresses in the system, given credit card and auto loan delinquency rates are on the rise and mortgage foreclosures are also rising, which, with home prices at unaffordable levels for just about everybody except the ultra-wealthy would figure. The chances of a 2008-like credit event are growing, though there have been no warnings shots, such as the demise of Bear Stearns in advance of the Lehman/2008 crisis.
There is still rampant speculation that some hedge funds took severe losses in prior weeks and were on the verge of major unwinding. Those fears remain prevalent. Further declines in stock markets could trigger a cascading effect that spills over into fixed income, exposing unhedged bond investors.
Meanwhile, President Trump continues to threaten Fed Chair Jerome Powell for "playing politics" with interest rates. The President wants them lower. Powell, for now, isn't budging. Neither is China per trade. These forces are coming to a head and the outcome could not be more clouded.
Doug Noland writes extensively on the current climate in his weekly commentary on Credit Bubble Bulletin. His insights are valuable and about as close to a "must read" as he's ever produced.
There are serious problems underlying not just the U.S. economy, but the entire global monetary and financial structure. If it seems like things are breaking, it's because they are. Currently, there's a quietude about catastrophic conditions, but that's likely to begin changing next Wednesday (April 30) when first quarter GDP is released.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
Oil/Gas
$64.45 was the closing price of WTI crude oil on Friday, up nearly $3 from last week's closeout price of $61.48. Whether that was just a dead cat bounce off essentially a four-year low or the beginning of inflationary pressure starting within the energy complex remains to be seen. However, from a chartist perspective, the long term trend is clearly lower. Last week's gain will probably not last long. There is still too much oil and insufficient demand. Economies everywhere - especially China, to say nothing of Europe - are slowing and stimulus based on painful deficit spending are unlikely to resolve anybody's problems.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, down four cents from last week and 10 cents from two weeks out. The expectation is for the national average to fall below $3.00 within the next month and possibly fall further as a combination of reduced demand and oversupply takes hold. The national average could fall to levels not seen since the 2010s, prior to the pandemic and the four years of Biden's "green" policies.
This chart via Gasbuddy.com provides clarity. The national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas were never above $3.00 during Trump's first term and were almost always over $3.00 six months after Joe Biden stepped into the White House. That unusually-high inflationary impulse is being forcibly reversed.
Gas prices were lower across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.79 down seven cents on the week. Mississippi took back the low spot, at $2.65, edging out Texas, Tennessee ($2.66), and Oklahoma, followed by South Carolina ($2.68), Louisiana ($2.73), Alabama ($2.74), Arkansas ($2.75) and Kentucky ($2.76). Georgia continues to fall, down from $2.95 last week to $2.88. Florida dipped to $2.96.
Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.35) and Maryland ($3.12), New England and East coast states all range between $2.82 (New Hampshire) and $3.06 (Vermont). New York was down three cents, at $3.04. Almost all of the Northeast is headed below $3.00. Most states - Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts - are already there.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.35), though the price is another six cents lower than last week. Kansas ($2.82) is the lowest, Missouri ($2.86), and Iowa ($2.99) are under $3.00 a gallon, along with Iowa and Wisconsin ($3.95), and Nebraska and South Dakota ($3.96). The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.27. Oregon ($3.91) and Nevada ($3.82) are already seeing price declines. Arizona checks in at $3.33, though neighboring New Mexico is a bargain at $2.79. Idaho is at $3.28, while neighboring Utah is $3.27, both higher this week.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at a few more states this week, with at last 25 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are very good now, though it's likely going to be a little while before Trump gets them down where he'd like them, with a national average around $2.60 to $2.75, possibly even lower.
Bitcoin
This week: $84,240.61
Last week: $84,401.71
2 weeks ago: $78,955.22
6 months ago: $68,890.14
One year ago: $66,402.03
Five years ago: $7,545.21
Bitcoin continues to bounce around, acting like a store of value against declining stock prices and lower U.S. dollar. It's a complete scam.
Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. It's possible that the entire crypto space could implode quicker than the general economy. In fact, much of the space is already suffering and it could be a trigger to a wider credit event. One example is Ethereum, down 53% year-to-date. The fraud in crypto as a general economic concept may be beginning to be exposed. This could get even uglier. If Bitcoin falls, it takes the whole universe of thousands of alt-coins and tokens with it.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 102.68; last week: 101.12
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20
Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00
Gold price 4/6: $3,056.10
Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Silver price 3/23: $33.29
Silver price 3/30: $34.82
Silver price 4/6: $29.52
Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Gold just keeps going higher, and if that tells us anything, it's that the world is on a precipice. Gold gets bought when stress becomes overwhelming and that's where we are. Silver cold explode higher, but that would entail the end of the COMEX, LBMA, and much of the world's economic realities.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 38.00 | 51.99 | 41.78 | 40.65 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 33.00 | 53.99 | 43.08 | 43.04 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,325.00 | 3,597.09 | 3,485.68 | 3,491.16 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,435.00 | 3,508.60 | 3,474.56 | 3,471.57 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained over the week, to $42.14, up $1.00 from the April 13 price of $41.14 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Happy Easter and Happy 136th Birthday Adolph Hitler (20 April 1889 - 30 April 1945). (One wonders if he was on the Social Security list uncovered by DOGE). In just 10 days, the planet can celebrate the 80th anniversary of his passing, whatever that's worth.
At the Close, Thursday, April 17, 2025:
Dow: 39,142.23, -527.16 (-1.33%)
NASDAQ: 16,286.45, -20.71 (-0.13%)
S&P 500: 5,282.70, +7.00 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 18,367.12, +121.47 (+0.67%)
For the Week:
Dow: -1070.48 (-2.66%)
NASDAQ: -438.01 (-2.62%)
S&P 500: -80.66 (-1.50%)
NYSE Composite: +147.47 (+0.81%)
Dow Transports: +29.23 (+0.22%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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