WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Make Headway but Remain at Bearish Levels; Silver Gains; Oil, Gas Prices Stable; Big Data Coming on GDP, Jobs, Inflation

Stocks just had one of the best weeks in, well, the past three. The week's gains were swell enough, especially the magic 6.73% rise on the NASDAQ, but they were about even with the winning the week of April 7-11, with a loser sandwiched in between.

The kind of see-saw volatility seen over the past few months is textbook bear market stuff.

Despite the howls of joy, all of the major indices are still under their 50-and-200-day moving averages and each laid down a death cross earlier this month, with the 50 crossing below the 200, except for the Dow Transports, which executed the death cross in March and remains deep into bear territory.

From its high close of 17,754.38 on November 25 through Friday's close (13,497.05), the DJT is down a cool 24%. Whenever there's a general slowdown in the economy, it's the trannys that feel it first. If products aren't moving, the companies that get them from producer to wholesaler to retailer aren't very busy and their profits suffer. While store shelves are still full of things customers aren't buying, excess inventory becomes problematic, backlogs begin piling up, cancellations occur. These are the kinds of things happening behind the scenes while most of the unsuspecting public are busy watching their 401k plans dive in value and stocks jump up and down on Presidential utterances, rumors of trade breakthroughs or tariff trauma.

Nobody likes to sell when stocks are down - and they are - but few consider that their gains from past years of excess and lofty valuation might just as well have been mirages or fairy dust. Refusal to accept reality can become costly. It's why panics happen. People are too engrossed with greed to be fearful at the right time and sell some shares. When stocks continue to slide and more people decide it's time to get out, a stampede for the exits is usually the result. Such an event could be weeks away, or months, or may not happen at all, but the lesson is that it may not be a bad idea to take some profits when the futures is clouded and uncertain.

That hasn't happened to any great degree except in a few wary institutional trading rooms.

Stocks

It's still a bear market.

From their respective peaks, the Dow is down 10.89%; NASDAQ, -13.83%; S&P, -10.07. While more than a few talking heads on CNBC, FoxBusiness and elsewhere will cite these numbers as indicative of a "correction," their misunderstanding of sentiment and directionality should not be an excuse for talking their book, which is, naturally, to help Wall Street bankers line their pockets with client dollars. Most of them also have limited understanding of economics or world politics and their interplay in financial matters.

Nobody rings a bell at the top and nobody is going to tell you to sell. That's just the way the system is set up to work. It functions off of the gullibility of people with money they don't know how to properly spend or allocate and the slick presentations and overpricing of stocks for sale. In good times, it's a bonanza. In bad times, fears often turn to tears.

With tariff trauma all the rage, this week is the heart of earnings season, which has been somewhat under-whelming so far. Most companies are doing just well enough to either make their numbers or fall just short, but the bigger issue is the number of companies cutting their forward guidance. They're all doing it. From Chipolte to Pepsico to Proctor & Gamble to all of the airlines, companies just can't see the future clearly. Trump has managed to throw shade on their crystal balls and none of them like it. More than a few have simply withdrawn guidance altogether, essentially throwing in the towel on the rest of the year until there's clarity on tariffs and other government policies.

It makes for some very risky bets, despite this week's run. More companies will be reporting this week. Among them:

Monday: (before open) MGM Resorts (MGM), Opera (OPRA) Domino's Pizza (DPZ); (after close) Nucor (NUE), Rambus (RMBS), Transocean (RIG), Waste Management (WM), Teradyne (TER)

Tuesday: (before open) (Altria (MO), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify (SPOT), Coca-Cola (KO), UPS (UPS), PayPal (PYPL), SoFi (SOFI), Royal Caribbean (RCL), JetBlue (JBLU); (after close) Snap (SNAP), Starbucks (SBUX), PPG (PPG), First Solar (FSLR), Visa (V)

Wednesday: (before open) International Paper (IP), Generac (GNRC), Hess (HES), Etsy (ETSY), Western Digital (WDC), Humana (HUM), Caterpillar (CAT); (after close) Prudential (PRU), Robinhood (HOOD), Qualcom (QCOM), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META)

Thursday: (before open) Roblox (RBLX), Mastercard (MA), McDonald's (MCD), Lilly (LLY), CVS Health (CVS), Moderna (MRNA); (after close) Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Reddit (RDDT), AirB&B (ABNB), Roku (ROKU), AIG (AIG)

Friday: (before open) Wendy's (WEN), Shell (SHEL), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Fubo (FUBO), Cigna (CI).

Traders will be bracing for what figures to be a pivotal session Wednesday, April 30, marking the end of the month with a couple of key economic numbers released.

The biggest data drop of the week will be the initial estimate of first quarter 2025 GDP, announced Wednesday prior to the opening bell. Current expert guesses fall in a range of -0.5 to +1.5%, though the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is predicting -2.5%, which would be a real market mover. In all actuality, GDP growth of less than 1.2% should be considered substandard, but anything with a minus sign in front of it should serve to confirm that the U.S. economy is in a recession and may have been in one since December or earlier.

Naturally, the official designation of a recession won't be available until it's over, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the government group which emotes from its ivory towers well after the fact. As politicized and dependent on what are, at best, educated guesses, skepticism of government pronouncements, estimates, or projections is at an all-time high. Much of the propaganda the government spews should be regarded as narrative-building and little more. Putting faith in figures that are routinely revised months later is a losing game.

Along with the GDP number, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Index, will also be revealed Wednesday. It's always good to end the month that starts with April Fool's Day with even more nonsense. Shortly thereafter, Friday's April Non-farm payroll release will add more fuel to whatever fire is already ablaze.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
03/21/2025	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.33	4.29	4.26	4.04
03/28/2025	4.38	4.35	4.35	4.33	4.30	4.26	4.04
04/04/2025	4.36	4.35	4.36	4.28	4.25	4.14	3.86
04/11/2025	4.37	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.21	4.04
04/17/2025	4.36	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.22	3.99
04/25/2025	4.34	4.37	4.36	4.32	4.32	4.22	3.95

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
03/21/2025	3.94	3.92	4.00	4.12	4.25	4.60	4.59
03/28/2025	3.89	3.91	3.98	4.11	4.27	4.65	4.64
04/04/2025	3.68	3.66	3.72	3.84	4.01	4.44	4.41
04/11/2025	3.96	3.98	4.15	4.32	4.48	4.91	4.85
04/17/2025	3.81	3.82	3.95	4.13	4.34	4.82	4.80
04/25/2025	3.74	3.76	3.88	4.06	4.29	4.75	4.74

Little change from last week on longer-dated maturities, though cheerleaders for stocks will characterize the five basis points lower on the 10-year note yield as some kind of victory or at least an indication of stabilizing in the credit space. If anything, the small moves lower in rates overall are temporary noise and not useful in any kind of analysis.

The market for treasuries is under assault on various fronts. The Federal Reserve cannot control longer term rates as evidenced last fall when they cut 100 basis points on the federal funds target rate and long bond yields rose. The market drives rates on anything longer than six months. With dollar flight well anchored, rates are likely to rise over time. Since the Trump tariffs were announced on April 2, rates have been anything but stable.

A Fed cut at the next FOMC meeting (May 6-7) is likely to be influenced greatly by three factors: the rate of inflation, the May 2 Non-farm payroll report, and, most importantly, the April 30 reading on first quarter GDP, which looks to be a stinker. Any cut to rates at the next meeting will not be because President Trump implores the Fed to do so, but rather a means by which the Fed can goose the stock market, which is about all they're interested in lately.

One could argue that the federal funds rate is too high, given current conditions of instability and uncertainty, but a 25 basis point cut will have to come with a suggestion that it is the first in a series to move markets in any meaningful way. Having pretty much claimed victory over inflation, the Fed is free to do as it pleases. They're either going to cut or hold, neither of which will have a great deal of influence in the larger scheme of things.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40

Oil/Gas

WTI crude was actually down on the week, closing out at $63.17, quite a long haul from last week's $64.45. As long as there is tariff uncertainty, oil isn't going anywhere fast. After the IMF lowered the forecast for global GDP last week, any rise in the price of fuel would run counter to the global trend, which is lower, just like stocks, food prices, and confidence in governments and central banks.

It's worth noting that President Trump hasn't made any effort to refill the strategic oil reserve, which Biden depleted in a cynical effort to tamp prices - that his policies made rise - down. Trump apparently believes this is not the most opportune time to refill the nation's tanks; he's patiently waiting for prices to come down even further.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, same as last week. The expectation is for the national average to fall below $3.00 within the next month or so and possibly even further as a combination of reduced demand and oversupply takes root.

Gas prices were in flux across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.75 down another four cents on the week. Mississippi relinquished the low spot to Oklahoma, cheapest in the nation at $2.63, edging out Mississippi by two cents. Texas ($2.70) and Louisiana ($2.71) were next. South Carolina ($2.72), Alabama ($2.75) and Tennessee ($2.77). Georgia and Florida continue to be outliers, at $2.88. and $3.02, respectively.

Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.33), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont, Maryland). New York was stable, at $3.04. Almost all of the Northeast is headed below $3.00 soon enough. Most states - Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts - are already there.

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price taking a six cent jump from last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest, followed by Missouri ($2.88) and Ohio ($2.95). All other states are right around $3.00, a few cents higher or lower, the highest being Indiana ($3.06). The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.25. Oregon ($3.87) and Nevada ($3.80) continue seeing price declines. Arizona checks in at $3.33, though neighboring New Mexico is a bargain at $2.73. Idaho is at $3.27, while neighboring Utah is $3.24, both lower this week.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at a few more states this week, with at last 27 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are very good heading into what used to be known as "driving season," otherwise referenced as Summer.

Bitcoin

This week: $93,927.10
Last week: $84,240.61
2 weeks ago: $84,401.71
6 months ago: $67,672.59
One year ago: $62,987.93
Five years ago: $9177.64

Bitcoin and the entire crypto space in general is the biggest scam ever perpetrated. It's obviousness was on full display this week as gold got taken down while bitcoin rallied at the same time. Now, anybody with any sense should be well aware that things made up from pure fantasy don't go up when actual money - gold - goes down. Reality simply does not function in that manner. Of the various purposes for bitcoin, which include hiding assets from prying government eyes, slush funds for Wall Street, all manner of criminal purposes, and a means of stealing peoples' money through fraud, graft collusion, exchanges, and transfers, it is well-known as a mechanism to suppress the price of gold and silver.

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. It's possible that the entire crypto space could implode quicker than the general economy. In fact, much of the space is already suffering and it could be a trigger to a wider credit event. One example is Ethereum, down 46% year-to-date. The fraud in crypto as a general economic concept may be beginning to be exposed. This could get even uglier. If Bitcoin falls, it takes the whole universe of thousands of alt-coins and tokens down with it.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 99.89; last week: 102.68

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00
Gold price 4/6: $3,056.10
Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 3/23: $3,330.20

Silver price 3/30: $34.82
Silver price 4/6: $29.52
Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 3/23: $33.34

Gold peaked over $3,500 early Tuesday morning - likely Chinese influence from traders on the Shanghai Exchange - and was beaten down the remainder of the week. It's likely to go back to that level and higher on short notice. The good news was the gains in silver, up 80 cents on the week, though it nearly hit $34.00 on a couple of occasions. Actual gold and silver buyers, judging by Money Daily's weekly Sunday survey of prices on eBay, aren't very much influenced by the COMEX or London's daily spot fixes. They're buying at premium prices, regardless of the fake paper-promise prices of the futures markets, measuring their wealth in ounces rather than dollars, yen, yuan, or euros, all equally fake.

There's no better trade these days than cashing out of fiat currency for real money, gold and silver. Some people get it, most don't, but the pressure is building, the gains have been outstanding since late 2022 and they show no signs of letting up. The value of gold and silver against any fiat currency is a matter of certainty versus time value. All national currencies (central bank counterfeit) are failing and have been failing for decades. They are a function of systems mathematically certain to self-destruct by design. Getting the timing exactly right isn't a problem. Understanding the inevitability of the death of unsound money is all the knowledge that is necessary.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.00	48.95	41.43	41.35
1 oz silver bar:	36.79	48.00	42.75	42.32
1 oz gold coin:	3,455.79	3,585.00	3,499.88	3,467.74
1 oz gold bar:	3,458.27	3,539.95	3,491.75	3,489.55

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped slightly during the week, to $41.96, down 18 cents from the April 20 price of $42.14 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

It hasn't gone unnoticed that the narratives of the central banks, politicians, and government operatives are unraveling at a quickened pace. President Trump has thrown Molotov cocktails through the front doors of places like the World Bank, IMF, World Trade Organization, NATO, the UN and elsewhere. He is a revolutionary leader with deep-seated convictions and exemplary business savvy. If there is a fourth turning, he wields the staff and the corkscrew.

While it may appear to many people that he's guiding a rudderless ship, these same people are hardly cognizant of Trump's mastery of presentation, deflection, and his understanding of the art of war, which he is waging on multiple fronts. There's surely no guarantee he will win all his wars, but the likelihood of his success in the fields of economics and societal change are strong and growing stronger by the day.

The Kentucky Derby is Saturday, May 3, which, as anybody with skin in th game understands, is necessary for at least some stress relief. Following what the week ahead is likely to reveal, a few mint juleps and some bets on fast 3-year-old ponies should serve as a welcome break.

At the Close, Friday, April 25, 2025:
Dow: 40,113.50, +20.10 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: 17,382.94, +216.90 (+1.26%)
S&P 500: 5,525.21, +40.44 (+0.74%)
NYSE Composite: 18,899.79, +4.39 (+0.02%)

For the Week:
Dow: +971.27 (+2.48%)
NASDAQ: +1096.49 (+6.73%)
S&P 500: +242.51 (+4.59%)
NYSE Composite: +532.68 (+2.90%)
Dow Transports: +58.33 (+0.43%)

Stock Futures Wavering, Point to Lower Open Friday as Trump Policies - and Changes - Whipsaw Markets

After today, the month of April will close out with three more trading days next week.

So far, it's not been kind to equity holders, though this week's gains have helped to restore some confidence. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 486 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 879 (5.40%), and the S&P has added 202 points, nearly a four percent gain.

Over the course of the month, though, all the majors are down. The Dow is off 4.48%; the NASDAQ, -0.73%; and the S&P is down 2.40%. Year -to-date, the numbers are worse, with the Dow down 5.76%, NASDAQ off 11.11%, and the S&P shedding 6.75%.

How that plays out the rest of the month depends largely on sentiment and earnings, which have not been quite up to snuff for investors who pay attention to things like EPS growth and revenue. Earnings surprises to the upside have been small compared to last year, and cutting back on projections for EPS and revenue for the rest of 2025 has been commonplace. Guidance has generally been one of caution and not much optimism.

The big driver has been tariff talk, either from President Trump's lips to Wall Street's ears or from the likes of Treasury Secretary Bessent. Both have alternatively expressed positive and negative views on the future prospects for tariffs on China and most of the rest of the world, leaving the market in a guessing game mode that benefits swing traders and gambling speculation, not those whose main goal is long term investment.

Case in point is Alphabet's strong quarter reported after the close Thursday juxtaposed against the latest from the President, who sarcastically mentioned Thursday that Russia's biggest concession is "not taking all of Ukraine," and followed that up by telling Time magazine that he would view it as a "total victory" if the U.S. has tariffs as high as 50% on foreign imports in a year's time.

Futures were pointing to a higher open Friday on the Google earnings but reversed course on Trump's statements.

The outlook for the remainder of the year, if one were to poll Wall Street analysts, would probably be a consensus "murky," at best. Essentially, like stock futures in recent days, analyst calls are all over the map. BofA strategist Michael Harnett, one of the more prescient analysts being followed closely, this morning said to sell this rally, just as it is gaining momentum.

Like Mother Nature, Mr. Market does not like being fooled or toyed with, a condition that has spurred excessive volatility in stocks as well as fixed income. Current conditions are tantamount to playing with a yo-yo while riding a ferris wheel or tilt-a-whirl. Everything is flying off in different directions, some at the same time, others choosing to set their own paths and timetables. Correlations that have been reliable data forecasters have failed, companies reporting solid quarters have been sold off while some, like Tesla, report horrifying results and are immediately boosted.

The level of confusion - mostly the work of President Trump, his policies, and the changes to them, which occur daily - is overwhelming.

Nearing the nine o'clock hour in New York, stock futures are lower, though that's subject to change and offers little indication as to where stocks will be headed to close out the week.

As of this writing, everything is down, including stock futures, gold, silver, oil. The only constant has been the VIX, the indicator of volatility, which has held steadily above 20, which is considered a danger zone, for the better part of the past two months and especially after Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day."

Three days ago, the Wall Street Journal mentioned that this April could be the worst since 1934, ringing up echoes of the Great Depression. This morning, after three consecutive winning sessions, they're not so sure.

As Money Daily has been noting through all the noise, conditions like this, where noise is drowning out and distorting any clear signal, are not conducive to long term planning and investing. People with money sitting idle in the bank or under a mattress have fared better, though the value of their dollar holdings has also taken a hit, with the US$ down nearly 10% on the dollar index, falling from a January 13 peak of 109.96 to a low of 98.28 on Monday, April 21, rebounding slightly this week to its current 99.61.

Given that its an open secret that the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar to ensure competitiveness for U.S. exports, there's probably a fair degree of confidence that the dollar will continue to fall against other currencies, and especially against gold. While precious metals have recently turned sideways - with silver up as the price of gold has fallen this week - they've far out-performed stocks this year as well as last.

Should extreme volatility persist, gold will continue to provide some degree of safe harboring and quite possibly, large gains. The pullback this week was off a breakout high which is likely to be re-tested in short order.

Nobody said transitioning the global economy under Trump's leadership was going to be easy. It's not. It won't be.

Buckle up. Or, maybe, buckle down.

At the Close, Thursday, April 24, 2025:
Dow: 40,093.40, +486.83 (+1.23%)
NASDAQ: 17,166.04, +457.99 (+2.74%)
S&P 500: 5,484.77, +108.91 (+2.03%)
NYSE Composite: 18,895.41, +264.32 (+1.42%)

Earnings Forecasts Being Slashed or Pulled by Reporting Companies; Tariff Concerns Paramount; Volatility High as Russia Bombs Kiev

Following two days of relentless rallying replete with tweets, twists, and turns on every other word uttered by either the President or his Treasury Secretary, traders are tuned in Thursday to see what will move markets next.

With a slew of earnings reports hitting the street after the bell Wednesday and prior to the open Thursday, there may be some skepticism with many companies pulling guidance or at least warning about lowered profits ahead due to tariffs.

Prior to the open, a number of companies reported first quarter earnings results, among them Southwest Airline (LUV), being sent lower by 3-4 percent in pre-market trading due to the company pulling forward guidance and announcing a reduction in flights for the second half of 2025. Likewise, American Airlines (AAL) withdrew its guidance, citing economic uncertainty. shares are flat. AAL trades at less than $10 per share.

Elsewhere, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which reported after Wednesday's closing bell, saw same store sales decline slightly, though the company topped EPS estimates. After closing about 3.5% higher on Wednesday, shares of the stock are down by roughly the same percentage pre-open.

Pepsico's (PEP) net income fell 10% to $1.8 billion. Adjusted for one-time items, PepsiCo earned $1.48 per share, just below the $1.49 analysts forecast. The company lowered its full-year earnings expectations in its earnings announcement Thursday morning, citing increased costs from tariffs and a pullback in consumer spending. One would hardly be surprised that branded chips at $5 a bag or a six-pack of Pepsi at $4 might be behind consumer reluctance. The company reported exceptionally-high profits last year as it raised prices on most of its offerings. Now that consumers are tapped out, they're not buying much of anything beyond absolute essentials.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) announced quarterly EPS of 0.34, missing expectations. Shares are falling by four percent or more.

Drugmaker Merck (MRK) posted a small beat with EPS of $2.22 but was cautious in its forward outlook. Shares are slightly higher - less than 2% - in early trading.

With earnings serving as a backdrop, stock futures were mixed, with Dow futures off 150 points, but NASDAQ futures higher by 35, and S&P futures flat.

Gold has rebounded to $3,355 this morning, and silver finally caught a bid, approaching $34 per ounce. WTI crud oil is up nearly $1.00 early, though it appears to be in no hurry to move much off recent lows.

On the geo-political front, Russia has launched missile attacks at Ukraine's capital of Kiev, even while the U.S. continues to dawdle over ineffective offers of cease fires and peace deals. President Trump responded with a post on his Truth Social that implored the Russian president to tone it down. The President actually used the phrase, "Vladimir! Stop!" in what should likely be seen as nothing more than posturing.

President Trump is likely to be perfectly content with pulling back from negotiations and allowing Russia to do as it pleases with its war-torn neighbor. As cynical as that may sound, U.S. policy has failed miserably - possibly intentionally - and Ukraine's leader Zelensky has resisted any and all attempts to forge some kind of peace initiative. The option of pulling back on U.S. financial and military support is likely the best option even though it allows Russia to dictate terms, given they are winning the war in the first place.

European allies are out of answers, out of touch and out of time. All their bombastic boasting about defeating Russia is now falling on deaf ears, since the EU and NATO collective cannot muster enough materiel or moral courage to continue arming the Ukrainians. Effectively, Project Ukraine - which was a fool's errand from the very start - is over. Russia will win the war as support for Ukraine dwindles to nothing.

Trump, having little to lose politically since it was not his war, will simply withdraw all support and walk away, then try to patch things up with Russia once the dust settles over Kiev.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 23, 2025:
Dow: 39,606.57, +419.59 (+1.07%)
NASDAQ: 16,708.05, +407.63 (+2.50%)
S&P 500: 5,375.86, +88.10 (+1.67%)
NYSE Composite: 18,631.09, +175.95 (+0.95%)

Algos Gone Wild: Trump Tweaks Tuesday Turn-Around; Stocks Roar Higher; Gold Price Slashed; Bitcoin Rips Higher

In the days before headline-grabbing computer algorithms controlled 80-90% of all trading (or maybe in some alternate universe), stock jocks relied upon metrics like Price-earnings ratios, profitability, a company's future prospects and reasoned analysis to pick stocks.

Those days are long gone, replaced by instantaneous market reactions to social media, news reports, and associated garble that passes for journalism or analytical process. The past few weeks and months have been peppered by all manner of market-moving nonsense, from Trump's tariffs to his supposed desire to fire Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Tuesday's trading was punctuatd by a leaked statement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who opined upon progress in trade negotiations, and one from the President himself, backtracking on his prior statement about Powell, saying he was happy with the Fed Chair in his present position.

No doubt there were some sharp tacks making oodles of dirty money on the massive upside, as well as on the way down on Monday, which took stocks close to their April 8 lows. All the algos do is provide neat entry and exit points for wall Street's horde of day traders and high anxiety for smaller investors who are stuck in passive funds that are forced to go with the flow rather than profit from volatility in either direction.

Thus, while Wednesday is shaping up to be a huge lift with stock futures up sharply, there's just as good a chance that the cash market will move equally in either direction, either today, tomorrow, or Friday and into next week. It's become fairly obvious that the stock market isn't for everyone, especially for those with plans that stretch out more than a few days, like the majority of 401k and IRA holders.

With stocks getting a huge boost on Tuesday, gold dropped like the heavyweight it is, breaking above $3,500 to as low as $3,304 early Wednesday morning. Seemingly unaffected by stock movement in either direction, Bitcoin has rocketed from a low of $84,500 on Sunday morning to as high as $94,261 Wednesday morning. Whether seen as a speculative investment (gamble) or an alternative to the U.S. dollar (which has been pounded lower by 10% the past six weeks), bitcoin fits the bill and has revived itself just in time to take advantage of Wild West Days on Wall Street, a carnival that's unlikely to end well for everybody.

In the real world, there are winners and losers. On Wall Street and in the crypto-verse, there apparently are only winners. Just for good measure, Trump spoke before the market open, saying, "145% is too high, it will come down substantially," speaking of the level of tariffs on Chinese imports.

Manipulated stock market volatility doesn't get any worse than this.

It's just too easy. Still a bear market, though.

At the Close, Tuesday, April 22, 2025:
Dow: 39,186.98, +1,016.57 (+2.66%)
NASDAQ: 16,300.42, +429.52 (+2.71%)
S&P 500: 5,287.76, +129.56 (+2.51%)
NYSE Composite: 18,455.14, +422.77 (+2.34%)

Stocks Whacked to Open Week; Gold Rockets Higher, Reaches $3,500 Overnight; Silver Likely Being Sold to Raise Cash

It’s becoming clear that the declines in stocks and rising interest rates on longer-dated bonds are not due to simply concern over tariffs. There are larger matters at hand. Judging by the extraordinary gains in gold, a re-ordering of the entire global financial system seems to be in play, and, perhaps even something as elemental as what constitutes "money" is about to be re-evaluated.

Thus, passive investors, whether they realize it or not, may be holding onto dead money. The market has been proving them wrong and taking them to the cleaners since mid-February. Monday's bloodbath wasn't the consequence of Trump mentioning that he may be considering firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. It was much deeper than that. Trump may, at any given moment, express a desire to abolish the Federal Reserve completely and return the United States to sound money, likely backed by gold. Whether silver has a place in his machinations remains to be seen, though the recent evidence suggests not.

Having little to no input into what kinds of investments people's IRAs or 401ks are making, these long-term managed accounts are at the mercy of fund managers and the market, a doubly-troubling condition.

Contributing to the overall sense of gloom on Wall Street are recent earnings reports, with more than a few companies lowering their revenue and profit estimates. There is simply too much uncertainty over the future for company executives to compose realistic plans for growth or expansion.

Earlier Tuesday morning Verizon (VZ) reported earnings above estimates but also saw a decline in subscribers to their various cellular services, sending the stock down more than two percent. On the flip side, Synchrony Financial, a sub-prime lender, saw lower charge-offs and delinquencies, somewhat bucking recent trends. Shares of the company are cautiously positive, up less than one percent.

Gold continued its rapid assent, topping $3,500 early Tuesday morning before the usual gang of thieves at the COMEX knocked it back down about $60. Silver remains moribund, unable to follow gold's lead, the gold:silver ratio at an eye-watering 105.17.

What may be occurring is a selloff of silver holdings by firms in need of quick cash, either to cover margin calls or shore up liquidity after taking massive losses. Usually, when the markets are as stressed as they are now, both gold and silver would be sold off to raise cash. At this time, nobody is letting go of their gold, only silver, which might explain to some degree why silver has not followed gold's move higher.

As long as there is confusion and stress and stocks under pressure, silver seems likely to suffer. When it breaks free - and it eventually will - the gains are likely to be spectacular.

At the Close, Monday, April 21, 2025:
Dow: 38,170.41, -971.82 (-2.48%)
NASDAQ: 15,870.90, -415.55 (-2.55%)
S&P 500: 5,158.20, -124.50 (-2.36%)
NYSE Composite: 18,032.37, -334.75 (-1.82%)