So far, it's not been kind to equity holders, though this week's gains have helped to restore some confidence. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 486 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 879 (5.40%), and the S&P has added 202 points, nearly a four percent gain.
Over the course of the month, though, all the majors are down. The Dow is off 4.48%; the NASDAQ, -0.73%; and the S&P is down 2.40%. Year -to-date, the numbers are worse, with the Dow down 5.76%, NASDAQ off 11.11%, and the S&P shedding 6.75%.
How that plays out the rest of the month depends largely on sentiment and earnings, which have not been quite up to snuff for investors who pay attention to things like EPS growth and revenue. Earnings surprises to the upside have been small compared to last year, and cutting back on projections for EPS and revenue for the rest of 2025 has been commonplace. Guidance has generally been one of caution and not much optimism.
The big driver has been tariff talk, either from President Trump's lips to Wall Street's ears or from the likes of Treasury Secretary Bessent. Both have alternatively expressed positive and negative views on the future prospects for tariffs on China and most of the rest of the world, leaving the market in a guessing game mode that benefits swing traders and gambling speculation, not those whose main goal is long term investment.
Case in point is Alphabet's strong quarter reported after the close Thursday juxtaposed against the latest from the President, who sarcastically mentioned Thursday that Russia's biggest concession is "not taking all of Ukraine," and followed that up by telling Time magazine that he would view it as a "total victory" if the U.S. has tariffs as high as 50% on foreign imports in a year's time.
Futures were pointing to a higher open Friday on the Google earnings but reversed course on Trump's statements.
The outlook for the remainder of the year, if one were to poll Wall Street analysts, would probably be a consensus "murky," at best. Essentially, like stock futures in recent days, analyst calls are all over the map. BofA strategist Michael Harnett, one of the more prescient analysts being followed closely, this morning said to sell this rally, just as it is gaining momentum.
Like Mother Nature, Mr. Market does not like being fooled or toyed with, a condition that has spurred excessive volatility in stocks as well as fixed income. Current conditions are tantamount to playing with a yo-yo while riding a ferris wheel or tilt-a-whirl. Everything is flying off in different directions, some at the same time, others choosing to set their own paths and timetables. Correlations that have been reliable data forecasters have failed, companies reporting solid quarters have been sold off while some, like Tesla, report horrifying results and are immediately boosted.
The level of confusion - mostly the work of President Trump, his policies, and the changes to them, which occur daily - is overwhelming.
Nearing the nine o'clock hour in New York, stock futures are lower, though that's subject to change and offers little indication as to where stocks will be headed to close out the week.
As of this writing, everything is down, including stock futures, gold, silver, oil. The only constant has been the VIX, the indicator of volatility, which has held steadily above 20, which is considered a danger zone, for the better part of the past two months and especially after Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day."
Three days ago, the Wall Street Journal mentioned that this April could be the worst since 1934, ringing up echoes of the Great Depression. This morning, after three consecutive winning sessions, they're not so sure.
As Money Daily has been noting through all the noise, conditions like this, where noise is drowning out and distorting any clear signal, are not conducive to long term planning and investing. People with money sitting idle in the bank or under a mattress have fared better, though the value of their dollar holdings has also taken a hit, with the US$ down nearly 10% on the dollar index, falling from a January 13 peak of 109.96 to a low of 98.28 on Monday, April 21, rebounding slightly this week to its current 99.61.
Given that its an open secret that the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar to ensure competitiveness for U.S. exports, there's probably a fair degree of confidence that the dollar will continue to fall against other currencies, and especially against gold. While precious metals have recently turned sideways - with silver up as the price of gold has fallen this week - they've far out-performed stocks this year as well as last.
Should extreme volatility persist, gold will continue to provide some degree of safe harboring and quite possibly, large gains. The pullback this week was off a breakout high which is likely to be re-tested in short order.
Nobody said transitioning the global economy under Trump's leadership was going to be easy. It's not. It won't be.
Buckle up. Or, maybe, buckle down.
At the Close, Thursday, April 24, 2025:
Dow: 40,093.40, +486.83 (+1.23%)
NASDAQ: 17,166.04, +457.99 (+2.74%)
S&P 500: 5,484.77, +108.91 (+2.03%)
NYSE Composite: 18,895.41, +264.32 (+1.42%)
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