The kind of see-saw volatility seen over the past few months is textbook bear market stuff.
Despite the howls of joy, all of the major indices are still under their 50-and-200-day moving averages and each laid down a death cross earlier this month, with the 50 crossing below the 200, except for the Dow Transports, which executed the death cross in March and remains deep into bear territory.
From its high close of 17,754.38 on November 25 through Friday's close (13,497.05), the DJT is down a cool 24%. Whenever there's a general slowdown in the economy, it's the trannys that feel it first. If products aren't moving, the companies that get them from producer to wholesaler to retailer aren't very busy and their profits suffer. While store shelves are still full of things customers aren't buying, excess inventory becomes problematic, backlogs begin piling up, cancellations occur. These are the kinds of things happening behind the scenes while most of the unsuspecting public are busy watching their 401k plans dive in value and stocks jump up and down on Presidential utterances, rumors of trade breakthroughs or tariff trauma.
Nobody likes to sell when stocks are down - and they are - but few consider that their gains from past years of excess and lofty valuation might just as well have been mirages or fairy dust. Refusal to accept reality can become costly. It's why panics happen. People are too engrossed with greed to be fearful at the right time and sell some shares. When stocks continue to slide and more people decide it's time to get out, a stampede for the exits is usually the result. Such an event could be weeks away, or months, or may not happen at all, but the lesson is that it may not be a bad idea to take some profits when the futures is clouded and uncertain.
That hasn't happened to any great degree except in a few wary institutional trading rooms.
Stocks
It's still a bear market.
From their respective peaks, the Dow is down 10.89%; NASDAQ, -13.83%; S&P, -10.07. While more than a few talking heads on CNBC, FoxBusiness and elsewhere will cite these numbers as indicative of a "correction," their misunderstanding of sentiment and directionality should not be an excuse for talking their book, which is, naturally, to help Wall Street bankers line their pockets with client dollars. Most of them also have limited understanding of economics or world politics and their interplay in financial matters.
Nobody rings a bell at the top and nobody is going to tell you to sell. That's just the way the system is set up to work. It functions off of the gullibility of people with money they don't know how to properly spend or allocate and the slick presentations and overpricing of stocks for sale. In good times, it's a bonanza. In bad times, fears often turn to tears.
With tariff trauma all the rage, this week is the heart of earnings season, which has been somewhat under-whelming so far. Most companies are doing just well enough to either make their numbers or fall just short, but the bigger issue is the number of companies cutting their forward guidance. They're all doing it. From Chipolte to Pepsico to Proctor & Gamble to all of the airlines, companies just can't see the future clearly. Trump has managed to throw shade on their crystal balls and none of them like it. More than a few have simply withdrawn guidance altogether, essentially throwing in the towel on the rest of the year until there's clarity on tariffs and other government policies.
It makes for some very risky bets, despite this week's run. More companies will be reporting this week. Among them:
Monday: (before open) MGM Resorts (MGM), Opera (OPRA) Domino's Pizza (DPZ); (after close) Nucor (NUE), Rambus (RMBS), Transocean (RIG), Waste Management (WM), Teradyne (TER)
Tuesday: (before open) (Altria (MO), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify (SPOT), Coca-Cola (KO), UPS (UPS), PayPal (PYPL), SoFi (SOFI), Royal Caribbean (RCL), JetBlue (JBLU); (after close) Snap (SNAP), Starbucks (SBUX), PPG (PPG), First Solar (FSLR), Visa (V)
Wednesday: (before open) International Paper (IP), Generac (GNRC), Hess (HES), Etsy (ETSY), Western Digital (WDC), Humana (HUM), Caterpillar (CAT); (after close) Prudential (PRU), Robinhood (HOOD), Qualcom (QCOM), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META)
Thursday: (before open) Roblox (RBLX), Mastercard (MA), McDonald's (MCD), Lilly (LLY), CVS Health (CVS), Moderna (MRNA); (after close) Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Reddit (RDDT), AirB&B (ABNB), Roku (ROKU), AIG (AIG)
Friday: (before open) Wendy's (WEN), Shell (SHEL), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Fubo (FUBO), Cigna (CI).
Traders will be bracing for what figures to be a pivotal session Wednesday, April 30, marking the end of the month with a couple of key economic numbers released.
The biggest data drop of the week will be the initial estimate of first quarter 2025 GDP, announced Wednesday prior to the opening bell. Current expert guesses fall in a range of -0.5 to +1.5%, though the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is predicting -2.5%, which would be a real market mover. In all actuality, GDP growth of less than 1.2% should be considered substandard, but anything with a minus sign in front of it should serve to confirm that the U.S. economy is in a recession and may have been in one since December or earlier.
Naturally, the official designation of a recession won't be available until it's over, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the government group which emotes from its ivory towers well after the fact. As politicized and dependent on what are, at best, educated guesses, skepticism of government pronouncements, estimates, or projections is at an all-time high. Much of the propaganda the government spews should be regarded as narrative-building and little more. Putting faith in figures that are routinely revised months later is a losing game.
Along with the GDP number, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Index, will also be revealed Wednesday. It's always good to end the month that starts with April Fool's Day with even more nonsense. Shortly thereafter, Friday's April Non-farm payroll release will add more fuel to whatever fire is already ablaze.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 03/21/2025 | 4.36 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.29 | 4.26 | 4.04 |
| 03/28/2025 | 4.38 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.33 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.04 |
| 04/04/2025 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.28 | 4.25 | 4.14 | 3.86 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4.37 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.21 | 4.04 |
| 04/17/2025 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.22 | 3.99 |
| 04/25/2025 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.32 | 4.22 | 3.95 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 03/21/2025 | 3.94 | 3.92 | 4.00 | 4.12 | 4.25 | 4.60 | 4.59 |
| 03/28/2025 | 3.89 | 3.91 | 3.98 | 4.11 | 4.27 | 4.65 | 4.64 |
| 04/04/2025 | 3.68 | 3.66 | 3.72 | 3.84 | 4.01 | 4.44 | 4.41 |
| 04/11/2025 | 3.96 | 3.98 | 4.15 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 4.91 | 4.85 |
| 04/17/2025 | 3.81 | 3.82 | 3.95 | 4.13 | 4.34 | 4.82 | 4.80 |
| 04/25/2025 | 3.74 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 4.06 | 4.29 | 4.75 | 4.74 |
Little change from last week on longer-dated maturities, though cheerleaders for stocks will characterize the five basis points lower on the 10-year note yield as some kind of victory or at least an indication of stabilizing in the credit space. If anything, the small moves lower in rates overall are temporary noise and not useful in any kind of analysis.
The market for treasuries is under assault on various fronts. The Federal Reserve cannot control longer term rates as evidenced last fall when they cut 100 basis points on the federal funds target rate and long bond yields rose. The market drives rates on anything longer than six months. With dollar flight well anchored, rates are likely to rise over time. Since the Trump tariffs were announced on April 2, rates have been anything but stable.
A Fed cut at the next FOMC meeting (May 6-7) is likely to be influenced greatly by three factors: the rate of inflation, the May 2 Non-farm payroll report, and, most importantly, the April 30 reading on first quarter GDP, which looks to be a stinker. Any cut to rates at the next meeting will not be because President Trump implores the Fed to do so, but rather a means by which the Fed can goose the stock market, which is about all they're interested in lately.
One could argue that the federal funds rate is too high, given current conditions of instability and uncertainty, but a 25 basis point cut will have to come with a suggestion that it is the first in a series to move markets in any meaningful way. Having pretty much claimed victory over inflation, the Fed is free to do as it pleases. They're either going to cut or hold, neither of which will have a great deal of influence in the larger scheme of things.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
Oil/Gas
WTI crude was actually down on the week, closing out at $63.17, quite a long haul from last week's $64.45. As long as there is tariff uncertainty, oil isn't going anywhere fast. After the IMF lowered the forecast for global GDP last week, any rise in the price of fuel would run counter to the global trend, which is lower, just like stocks, food prices, and confidence in governments and central banks.
It's worth noting that President Trump hasn't made any effort to refill the strategic oil reserve, which Biden depleted in a cynical effort to tamp prices - that his policies made rise - down. Trump apparently believes this is not the most opportune time to refill the nation's tanks; he's patiently waiting for prices to come down even further.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, same as last week. The expectation is for the national average to fall below $3.00 within the next month or so and possibly even further as a combination of reduced demand and oversupply takes root.
Gas prices were in flux across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.75 down another four cents on the week. Mississippi relinquished the low spot to Oklahoma, cheapest in the nation at $2.63, edging out Mississippi by two cents. Texas ($2.70) and Louisiana ($2.71) were next. South Carolina ($2.72), Alabama ($2.75) and Tennessee ($2.77). Georgia and Florida continue to be outliers, at $2.88. and $3.02, respectively.
Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.33), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont, Maryland). New York was stable, at $3.04. Almost all of the Northeast is headed below $3.00 soon enough. Most states - Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts - are already there.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price taking a six cent jump from last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest, followed by Missouri ($2.88) and Ohio ($2.95). All other states are right around $3.00, a few cents higher or lower, the highest being Indiana ($3.06). The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.25. Oregon ($3.87) and Nevada ($3.80) continue seeing price declines. Arizona checks in at $3.33, though neighboring New Mexico is a bargain at $2.73. Idaho is at $3.27, while neighboring Utah is $3.24, both lower this week.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at a few more states this week, with at last 27 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are very good heading into what used to be known as "driving season," otherwise referenced as Summer.
Bitcoin
This week: $93,927.10
Last week: $84,240.61
2 weeks ago: $84,401.71
6 months ago: $67,672.59
One year ago: $62,987.93
Five years ago: $9177.64
Bitcoin and the entire crypto space in general is the biggest scam ever perpetrated. It's obviousness was on full display this week as gold got taken down while bitcoin rallied at the same time. Now, anybody with any sense should be well aware that things made up from pure fantasy don't go up when actual money - gold - goes down. Reality simply does not function in that manner. Of the various purposes for bitcoin, which include hiding assets from prying government eyes, slush funds for Wall Street, all manner of criminal purposes, and a means of stealing peoples' money through fraud, graft collusion, exchanges, and transfers, it is well-known as a mechanism to suppress the price of gold and silver.
Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. It's possible that the entire crypto space could implode quicker than the general economy. In fact, much of the space is already suffering and it could be a trigger to a wider credit event. One example is Ethereum, down 46% year-to-date. The fraud in crypto as a general economic concept may be beginning to be exposed. This could get even uglier. If Bitcoin falls, it takes the whole universe of thousands of alt-coins and tokens down with it.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 99.89; last week: 102.68
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00
Gold price 4/6: $3,056.10
Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 3/23: $3,330.20
Silver price 3/30: $34.82
Silver price 4/6: $29.52
Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 3/23: $33.34
Gold peaked over $3,500 early Tuesday morning - likely Chinese influence from traders on the Shanghai Exchange - and was beaten down the remainder of the week. It's likely to go back to that level and higher on short notice. The good news was the gains in silver, up 80 cents on the week, though it nearly hit $34.00 on a couple of occasions. Actual gold and silver buyers, judging by Money Daily's weekly Sunday survey of prices on eBay, aren't very much influenced by the COMEX or London's daily spot fixes. They're buying at premium prices, regardless of the fake paper-promise prices of the futures markets, measuring their wealth in ounces rather than dollars, yen, yuan, or euros, all equally fake.
There's no better trade these days than cashing out of fiat currency for real money, gold and silver. Some people get it, most don't, but the pressure is building, the gains have been outstanding since late 2022 and they show no signs of letting up. The value of gold and silver against any fiat currency is a matter of certainty versus time value. All national currencies (central bank counterfeit) are failing and have been failing for decades. They are a function of systems mathematically certain to self-destruct by design. Getting the timing exactly right isn't a problem. Understanding the inevitability of the death of unsound money is all the knowledge that is necessary.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 36.00 | 48.95 | 41.43 | 41.35 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 36.79 | 48.00 | 42.75 | 42.32 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,455.79 | 3,585.00 | 3,499.88 | 3,467.74 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,458.27 | 3,539.95 | 3,491.75 | 3,489.55 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped slightly during the week, to $41.96, down 18 cents from the April 20 price of $42.14 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
It hasn't gone unnoticed that the narratives of the central banks, politicians, and government operatives are unraveling at a quickened pace. President Trump has thrown Molotov cocktails through the front doors of places like the World Bank, IMF, World Trade Organization, NATO, the UN and elsewhere. He is a revolutionary leader with deep-seated convictions and exemplary business savvy. If there is a fourth turning, he wields the staff and the corkscrew.
While it may appear to many people that he's guiding a rudderless ship, these same people are hardly cognizant of Trump's mastery of presentation, deflection, and his understanding of the art of war, which he is waging on multiple fronts. There's surely no guarantee he will win all his wars, but the likelihood of his success in the fields of economics and societal change are strong and growing stronger by the day.
The Kentucky Derby is Saturday, May 3, which, as anybody with skin in th game understands, is necessary for at least some stress relief. Following what the week ahead is likely to reveal, a few mint juleps and some bets on fast 3-year-old ponies should serve as a welcome break.
At the Close, Friday, April 25, 2025:
Dow: 40,113.50, +20.10 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: 17,382.94, +216.90 (+1.26%)
S&P 500: 5,525.21, +40.44 (+0.74%)
NYSE Composite: 18,899.79, +4.39 (+0.02%)
For the Week:
Dow: +971.27 (+2.48%)
NASDAQ: +1096.49 (+6.73%)
S&P 500: +242.51 (+4.59%)
NYSE Composite: +532.68 (+2.90%)
Dow Transports: +58.33 (+0.43%)
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