A Perfect Liquidity Storm: Billions Squeezed Out of Crypto, SNAP, Government Paychecks, Stocks; As Fed Injects $29 Billion

Shades of 1929 are occurring in the crypto space and elsewhere.

Crypto liquidation occurs when a trader's position is automatically closed by an exchange due to insufficient margin to cover losses, often resulting from leveraged trading.

Crypto liquidation refers to the forced closure of a trader's position when their margin account falls below the required maintenance level. This typically happens in leveraged trading, where traders borrow funds to increase their exposure to a cryptocurrency asset. If the market moves against the trader's position, leading to significant losses, the exchange will liquidate the position to recover the borrowed funds and prevent further losses.

In the Great Crash of 1929, margin calls forced leveraged speculators to raise more cash to cover their outstanding debt on money borrowed to invest in stocks. As stock prices fell, large and small speculators alike were bankrupted in September and October of 1929 and beyond. The margin calls created a vicious loop of forced selling that eventually spilled over into the general economy. Individuals and institutions that had been living lavishly suddenly had insufficient cash to buy much more than a day's meals or a month's rent. The lack of spending by parties that had formerly been supporting the economic growth of the 1920s - among other factors - fed directly into the general impoverishment of the Great Depression.

Similarities between the boom of 1928 and bust of 1929 can be made to current conditions. The crypto market and the tech-led NASDAQ have been built up by speculators, buying ephemeral crypto issues and tech stocks with pie-in-the-sky valuations on promises of some AI-induced economic miracle by which nobody works and everybody is rich. A similar condition existed in the late 1920s, when a strong economy was producing excess income, as bankers and brokers advised everybody from shoeshine buys to retail clerks into buying stocks on margin, leveraging their returns.

It all worked quite well when stocks were going up, day after day, month after month, but the market, as always, delivered a stern correction on the way down. At first, the selling was characterized as "normal, healthy pullbacks" or "profit-taking" and stocks shrugged off losing sessions and charged ahead.

That was the first warning shot.

Next, institutional spokespeople from the Federal Reserve, the stock exchanges, and the government began making off-the-cuff remarks about the strength of the economy, none more famous than Irving Fisher's, the Yale professor and economist who declared that the stock market had reached "a permanently high plateau".

Recently, posts on X by bitcoin proponents like Tom Lee and Michael Saylor have been echoing similar sentiments, with projections of bitcoin reaching such lofty valuations of $200,000 by year's end, $400,000 in 2026 and rising into the millions by the end of the decade.

When speculators begin to make pronouncements like that with little to no academic or rational backing, a second warning beacon is triggered. Rather than facing the reality that their speculation might end in disaster, these heavily-leveraged plungers are hoping to keep the plates of their speculation spinning. It usually doesn't end well, as Mr. Market always has ideas of restoring order and reversion to the mean, which, in the case of bitcoin, would be a correction back to around $32,000, a 70% crash which would wipe out not only the diamond-handed "hodlers" of bitcoin, but most of the speculative money in ETFs and other derivative bets.

Bitcoin isn't alone in its recent liquidation-driven decline. Other popular "coins" and issues like Ethereum, Solana, Dodgecoin and hundreds of other less-well-known cryptos are being wiped out.

While "Big Daddy" bitcoin took a four percent slide on Monday, Ethereum dropped eight percent, XRP, 9 percent; Dodgecoin, 10 percent; Solana, 11.

That's just Monday. Liquidations have been prevalent throughout October, resulting in $19 billion in liquidation-induced losses. November isn't looking much better.

The crypto space may be just the most obvious canary in the economic coal mine. Billions of dollars in what was normally-spendable income has been suspended by the government shutdown. It was decided on Monday that SNAP food benefits would be funded from emergency funds, but only about half of the usual $8 billion monthly hand-out was available and it could take states weeks or even months to work out the details.

Quietly, on Friday, the Federal Reserve injected $29.4 billion into its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to help ease strained liquidity concerns at major banks and primary dealers. This was the largest cash infusion since the pandemic. While people were pre-occupied with the government shutdown, SNAP benefits, the World Series and football, there were some panicky people in high places doing odd things with money, setting up a perfect liquidity storm that's approaching gale force.

Monday's mid-morning meltdown in stocks was far from an isolated event. The major indices hit the lows of the day around 10:30 but immediately made a U-turn to higher ground. The NASDAQ never even turned red, but the S&P did, and only ended with a slight gain. The Dow suffered in negative territory all day long.

Money being drawn out of the financial system from various sources has a snowballing effect, though it may be imperceptible at first, it becomes more and more obvious as time passes. There have been instances of defaults on car loans and credit cards and bankruptcies are on the rise. Student loan default rates have spiked to well over 10%. As of March, 2025, because of various government schemes, only 35% of all student borrowers had been making payments on time.

Another sign of trouble brewing are gatherings of business leaders boasting about investments for the future and generally celebrating prosperity. When President Trump hosted the wealthiest tech billionaires at the White House in early September the talk was all about money, technology, and investment in American enterprise. The gathering was supposed to highlight America's economic prominence. All it accomplished was making a lot of people who don't own yachts and live in penthouses envious and maybe a little bit angry.

If stocks begin to stumble and business leaders begin making exhortations about the strength of the economy - Trump is the master of saying how great and fabulous everything is - it's probably a sign that lean times are dead ahead. That happened in the run-up to the 1929 crash and ensuing Great Depression. America may not be heading for a depression on the scale of what occurred back in the 1930s, but there are troubling signs that a downturn in the economy is probably already underway. The Fed doesn't cut rates twice in a row if everything's hunky-dory. They cut - as they did in September and October - when they see trouble.

So here we are on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, and bitcoin has dropped another $3,000, down as low as $103,607 prior to the opening bell for stocks. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg headline blares: Wall Street CEOs Flag High Market Valuations, Pullback Risk as stock futures head into the tank. The article cites, among others, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon, expressing the view that stocks could pullback 10% or more in the next 12 to 24 months. That, right there, folks, is comedy gold. Stocks could drop 10% in the next 12 to 24 weeks or 12 to 24 days, which, of course, would never be mentioned by anyone in good standing at the Wall Street casino. Statements and articles - especially from Bloomberg, the most propagandized of all media - like that are clear signs that something is up and that asset values are headed lower.

There is some good news. Dick Cheney, former VP under president George W. Bush and an original neocon, died overnight, officially, November 3. Cheney is famous for helping instigate the war in Iraq which toppled Saddam Hussein, assisted by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (July 9, 1032 - June 29, 2021), Secretary of State Colin Powell (April 5, 1937 - October 18, 2021), Chief Advisor Karl Rove (still living) and others.

As far as speculation in crypto assets is concerned, there is ample reason to be concerned since bitcoin and the thousands of other crypto copies aren't actually money, or assets, but nothing more than numbers in blockchains. None of them - bitcoin, ethereum, fartcoin, dogecoin, or any other "coin" - has any value whatsoever, so, they are subject to the wanton whims and festering fantasies of speculators, manipulators, and swindlers running rampant in financial markets.

Just as a reality check, ask yourself if you know anybody who has bought groceries or paid rent or a mortgage with any kind of crypto. Chances are good that you don't. Crypto is more than speculation, worse than the South Sea bubble or Tulip mania. This is speculation on things that exist only in blockchains, in the ether, in cyberspace. There's neither value nor utility, only price movements. These are not investments. They are sinkholes that swallow up excess capital.

With all the speculation and super-high valuations in vaporware like crypto and blue sky promises from the AI horde, a rug-pull is almost a 100% certainty. We may be witnessing the early stages of the biggest bubble bursting in the history of mankind.

Be ready.

At the Close, Monday, November 3, 2025:
Dow: 47,336.68, -226.19 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 23,834.72, +109.77 (+0.46
S&P 500: 6,851.97, +11.77 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 21,416.59, -42.99 (-0.20%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Government Shutdown Persists, Day 33; Fed Delivers Rate Cut with No Promises; SNAP Benefits in Limbo

The stock market managed to escape what is traditionally the month for crashes - October - unscathed.

Stocks closed out the last week of the month with the usual upside drift, though end of session Friday was a little frightful (it was Halloween, after all), as the major indices were down more than 50% from the day's highs.

The Dow was particularly amusing, making the high of the session 15 minutes before the close, 47,718.38, only to finish about 150 points lower, 47,562.87, for a paltry gain of just 40 points.

Now that it's November and Daylight Savings Time has been turned off, clocks surrendering an hour to the will of the government and nature, the Fed rate cut in the books, and no food stamps for some 40-42 million Americans (former president Obama, who apparently wishes more of a welfare state, put the number at 47 million. Math not his strong suit).

Riots and looting haven't begun in earnest, or, at least the mainstream media isn't reporting any. Hungry people can become angry people pretty quickly, but, nobody's actually run out of food yet. Food pantries and other charitable types have stepped in to fill the void... and the stomachs. Congress refuses to move on the issue, two courts demand that the Trump administration release emergency funds to recharge the EBT cards, and the president cynically asked the court for specifics.

Somewhere along the line, there's likely to be a scapegoat uttering something along the lines of Marie Antoinette's infamous expression of disdain for common folk, "let them eat cake." It's probably going to be Senate Democrats, who refuse to pass a continuing resolution already approved by the House, though it could be Senate Republicans, who refuse to end the filibuster rule that requires a 60-vote majority for cloture, and pass the CR without Democrat votes. It could even be President Trump.

There is going to be pain, blowback, and eventually, though it could take years and come in odd ways, retribution.

In any case, the government remains on shutdown, now into its 33rd day, soon to become the longest of government shutdowns. There is a loud chorus of anarchists hoping it remains closed permanently, though that is unlikely to happen. Sooner or later, the congress will come to the realization that they can't adequately hurt American citizens and loot the treasury without some kind of formal legislation. They will pass some kind of funding bill, but, their reputation already in tatters, will be irreparably damaged, the public certain they are nothing more than well-attired scoundrels and thugs.

Stocks

Stocks went up. Nothing new about that. The Shiller PE (CAPE) ended the week at 40.88, not quite the highest ever (44.19, November 1999).

The week ahead will feature another basket of earnings reports from widely held companies. Here's a partial list:

Monday, November 3: (before open) Fubo (FUBO), FreshPet (FRPT), Cipher Mining (CIFR); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), hims hers (HIMS), Clorox (CLX), Goodyear Tire (GT)

Tuesday, November 4: (before open) Pfizer (PFE), British Petroeum (BP) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Spotify (SPOT), Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER); (after close) Pinterest (PINS), Astera Labs (ALAB), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Beyond Meat (BYND)

Wednesday, November 5: (before open)Humana (HUM), Brinks (BCO), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Mcdonald's (MCD) ; (after close) AMC (AMC), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Robinhood (HOOD), Applovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday, November 6: (before open) ConocoPhillips (COP), AstraZeneca (AZN), Moderna (MRNA), Warner Brothers Discovery ((WBD); (after close) Opendoor (OPEN), Draft Kings (DKNG), Air B&B (ABNB)

Friday, November 7: (before open) Wedny's (WEN), Fluor (FLR), Six Flags (FUN), Duke Energy (DUK), Constellation (CEG)

As it always does, Berkshire Hathaway jumped the shark with it's earnings release on Saturday. Warren Buffett's holding company continues to eschew buybacks of its own stock, remains a net seller of stocks and increased its cash position to more than $382 billion while improving profits for the third quarter, beating estimates.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/26/2025	4.22	4.20	4.17	4.02	4.00	3.83	3.67
10/03/2025	4.24	4.17	4.11	4.03	3.96	3.82	3.64
10/10/2025	4.19	4.16	4.10	4.02	3.96	3.81	3.60
10/17/2025	4.18	4.15	4.08	4.00	3.95	3.79	3.56
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/26/2025	3.63	3.66	3.76	3.96	4.20	4.74	4.77
10/03/2025	3.58	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.13	4.69	4.71
10/10/2025	3.52	3.52	3.65	3.83	4.05	4.60	4.63
10/17/2025	3.46	3.47	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.58	4.60
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67

The Fed delivered on the 0.25% cut to the federal funds target rate, though Chairman Powell refused to confirm another such cut in December, which sent the major indices into a temporary nose-dive. As has happened in the past, while short-term bills witnessed yield declines, longer maturities were higher, with the 10-year up nine basis points and the 30-year bond yield up eight. Two year yields were up 12 basis points, though the yield curve, as a whole, is proceeding to steepen, a positive development.

2s-10s spreads dropped to +51 while full spectrum roared up to +61, the highest since July. Demand for treasuries was shaky.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61

Oil/Gas

President Trump and Europe's sanctions on Russian oil will prove to be completely ineffective, as WTI crude closed out the week at $60.88, after rallying to $61.44 the week prior. There simply isn't anything the U.S. or E.U. can do about an oil glut and BRICS countries - especially India and China - will continue to buy Russian oil regardless of potential penalties or knuckle-thumping by the West.

The temporary rise in oil prices had little effect at the pump, with the U.S. national average down a penny, at $3.02, according to Gasbuddy.com.

California remains the priciest, at $4.66 per gallon, up seven cents, followed by Washington ($4.29), lower by six cents on the week. Oregon ($3.85), was down another eight cents on the week, after a flirtation with $4.00. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.50) the lowest, followed by Texas ($2.51), Mississippi and Arkansas both at $2.56. Louisiana ($2.57) and Alabama ($2.62) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.75 (Georgia), with Florida the exception, at $2.95, up a nickel.

Relief continued in the Northeast, where most states were under $3.00, except for Pennsylvania ($3.21), New York ($3.08) and Vermont ($3.07), and Maine ($3.01).

Illinois ($3.20) was the only Midwest state above $3.00. Kentucky was lowest, at $2.67.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 35 states, up three from last week.

Bitcoin (fake)

This week: $110,406.10
Last week: $113,471.40
2 weeks ago: $106,748.23
6 months ago: $96,432.45
One year ago: $68,434.65
Five years ago: $16,078.98

Bitcoin, which was supposed to rally to $200,000, $400,000 and beyond, was down for the week. The charts say $70,000 or lower in the near term.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.16; last week: 84.54

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/3: $3,912.10
Gold price 10/10: $4,035.50
Gold price 10/17: $4,267.90
Gold price 10/24: $4,126.90
Gold price 10/31: $4,013.40

Silver price 10/3: $47.97
Silver price 10/10: $47.51
Silver price 10/17: $50.63
Silver price 10/24: $48.41
Silver price 10/31: $48.25

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/17: $4250.59
Gold 10/24: $4110.63
Gold 10/31: $3997.10

Silver 10/17: $51.88
Silver 10/24: $48.59
Silver 10/31: $48.65

(Kitko)
Gold 10/19: Bid: $4,250.80; Ask: $4,252.80
Gold 10/26: Bid: $4,111.20; Ask: $4,113.20
Gold 10/31: Bid: $4001.10; Ask: $4,003.10

Silver 10/19: Bid: $51.86; Ask: $51.98
Silver 10/26: Bid: $48.53; Ask: $48.65
Silver 10/31: Bid: $48.60; Ask: $48.72

Gold and silver were under pressure, though not as significantly as the week prior. Prices for precious metals are back to where they were three weeks ago - and slightly above in the case of silver - indicating that the short-term suppression measures were very weak-handed.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	49.88	60.00	55.78	55.99
1 oz silver bar:	50.69	64.99	55.98	56.98
1 oz gold coin:	4,080.22	4,457.50	4,309.57	4,287.50
1 oz gold bar:	4,079.00	4,277.50	4,221.20	4,233.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained slightly over the week, to $56.18, a a gain of six cents from the October 26 price of $56.12 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to spot.

WEEKEND WRAP

Go get some food while its still available.

At the Close, Friday, October 31, 2025:
Dow: 47,562.87, +40.75 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,724.96, +143.81 (+0.61)
S&P 500: 6,840.20, +17.86 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 21,459.58, +8.58 (+0.04%)

For the Week:
Dow: +355.75 (+0.75%)
NASDAQ: +520.09 (+2.24%)
S&P 500: +48.51 (+0.71%)
NYSE Composite: -238.48 (-1.10%)
Dow Transports: +435.51 (+2.82%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

America Comes Unglued

As the month of October comes to an end, the United States of America, which prides itself in many ways as being all-powerful, self-important, and essential to the welfare of the entire planet, has become a woeful laughingstock, its federal government unable to fund itself, a president who boasts of deals with foreign nations that purport to solve issues he created, and, with funding for SNAP, otherwise known as food stamps, expired, 40 million of its citizens are about to go hungry in a country that has an abundance of food.

The problems with which America has saddled itself are completely self-made, manufactured, and entirely avoidable. The federal government can borrow as much money as it wants from the Federal Reserve, which conjures it up out of thin air. The Senate simply does not want the government funded at present. They would rather pretend to be arguing over which party is screwing the taxpayers the most than doing the jobs they were elected to do. They have failed, as too, the president.

A government that cannot balance its books and at the same time cannot agree to legislation to keep itself operating is one not worth having. Should the Senate fail to agree, over the next few days, on a package to at least fund itself for a few months time, the effects will be immediate; the repercussions will be felt for years. The continuous wrangling and bickering over short-term solutions - a practice that has been ongoing for decades - is significant in showing the rest of the world how utterly incompetent, petty, and uncaring the elected officials of the United States really are.

There's nothing good about the now month-long government shutdown except possibly serving as a wake-up call to the people of America. The drama in Washington serves no useful purpose. Should the shutdown continue into November and possibly longer, chaos and anarchy will ensue, and then, what? Martial law? Is that the ultimate purpose of the fakery and foolery at the highest levels of government?

It may be so. America and the world is about to find out.

The conditions extant in the United States are horrific. The currency is a mirage. The government a circus. The media all propaganda. The system of checks and balances overwrought. The constitution, having been trampled upon by countless presidents, legislators, and members of the judiciary for decades, a sad remnant from better days.

While much of the country is anxious over the developments - or lack thereof - in the nation's capital, the denizens of lower Manhattan rejoice in the supremely high valuations of publicly-held corporations, their gizmos, inventions, products, and services the envy of the world. Of course, Wall Street itself is something of a fantasy, with indices and stock prices gerrymandered by big banks and brokerages, up, down, and every other which way, as they please.

The month of October, 2025 will be remembered, if Americans are lucky, as the month in which the government ceased to exist and Wall Street threw a party to celebrate its demise.

Good luck out there. You're going to need it.

At the Close, Thursday, October 30, 2025:
Dow: 47,522.12, -109.88 (-0.23%)
NASDAQ: 23,581.14, -377.33 (-1.57%)
S&P 500: 6,822.34, -68.25 (-0.99%)
NYSE Composite: 21,451.00, -74.93 (-0.35%)

TACO Thursday: Trump Rolls Back Tariffs on Asian Promises, Frameworks; Fed Cuts rates 0.25%; Government Shutdown Nears One Month

Via its FOMC, the Fed, as expected, cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points, from 4.00-4.25% to 3.75-4.00%.

Markets didn't respond significantly until Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned at his press conference that another 0.25% cut in December wasn't a sure bet. Stocks slumped on his comments, but immediately began to rise once he stopped talking.

Later in the evening - which was morning in South Korea - President Trump met with China's President, Xi Jinping, for about 90 minutes, both coming away looking somewhat satisfied. Trump left immediately afterwards on Air Force One, heading back to Washington.

On the plane trip, trump characterized the meeting as a "12" on a scale of 1 to 10. That's all well and good, but what actually was accomplished by his four-day trip to the Far East was mere posturing and posing without any concrete agreements.

The president made a boatload of comments about how well things were going (everybody's used to the braggadocio by now), but the trip produced little more than memorandums of understanding, frameworks, vague commitments with a swath of countries on a variety of issues - from rare earth deals to tariffs - lots of promises devoid of details.

Even the heavily-publicized meeting with Xi on Thursday produced little in the way of concrete solutions. Essentially, China agreed to slow their roll on rare earth mineral regulations, the U.S. agreed to knock general tariffs back to 47% from 57%, and there was some kind of understanding about China slowing the flow of fentanyl precursors and buying some soybeans from U.S. farmers.

It was all fairly vague and nebulous. Trump could have accomplished as much by phone, or, he might as well have never started his whole tariff regime in the first place, since he promised to roll back most of them during his trip. Essentially, China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia paid the president extensive lip service.

Notably, Trump did not meet with anybody from either India or Indonesia, two BRIICS members. Indonesia joined BRICS earlier this year (January 7) and is a major miner and refiner of rare earth minerals. North Korea's Kim Jong Un didn't even want to talk to him. Meanwhile, Russia continues to pound Ukraine into dust. Putin and Trump aren't talking. The Alaska Summit? Poof. It's gone, having produced nothing, just like, it's suspected, this Asian jaunt.

Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

-- William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 5

In card-playing terms, Trump bluffed and nobody blinked. The "trillions" the U.S. was expecting to rake in from tariffs will subsequently be reduced to "billions" and Americans will end up paying more for everything imported. Thank you, Mr. President. Now do India, Brazil, and Canada. And, while you're demonstrating your incredible negotiating skills, how about opening up the government that's been shut down for nearly a month. In case you haven't noticed, that's your government, the United States government, the one behind the "America First" agenda.

It was sure enough a TACO Thursday for Trump. His tariff policies have produced some revenue - the government collected some $151 billion through the end of September, with expectations of $3 trillion over the next ten years. While that sounds good, even great, one has to consider the overlaying context that federal expenditures will top $7 trillion this year and the deficit is expected to be north of $2 trillion. If tariffs produce $500 billion (they likely won't) in revenue in fiscal 2026, that's all well and good, but hardly sufficient. Americans will pay more for most goods and services, making them poorer, decreasing the amount of taxes that they pay.

Looks like a wash, almost. And, that's if the Supreme Court doesn't rule against Trump's tariffs later in November.

As Money Daily has been saying for the past few weeks, Trump's bombastic style is all for show. It's about how great America is, when it's actually been in decline for decades. Trump's tariffs and "re-shoring" plans for increasing domestic manufacturing aren't going to solve most of its basic problems: inflation, inflation, and inflation. The tariffs, along with the Fed lowering interest rates, actually stoke inflation.

For all the talk, the country is going in reverse.

America First is a complete sham, a meme, a bumper-sticker talking point for the government, the media, and Wall Street.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 30, 2025:
Dow: 47,632.00, -74.37 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 23,958.47, +130.98 (+0.55%)
S&P 500: 6,890.59, -0.30 (-0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 21,525.93, -163.62 (-0.75%)

Trump Trade Deals Reside on Sandy Foundations, False Hopes and Dreams; China Deal Awaits; Senate Says "No Chips for You" to 40 Million Americans

Bombastic as ever, President Trump has had so much success at making deals during his whirlwind trip to the Far East, one marvels at his brilliance while wondering why he took so long to secure these monumental pacts on the international trading platform.

"We did reach a deal on trade," Trump told reporters at a dinner in South Korea. No additional details about the agreement were provided, and neither the White House nor South Korean officials have issued an official statement outlining the terms.

Trump called his meetings with South Korea "tremendous" and said he had "pretty much finalized a trade deal," adding, "I think we came to a conclusion on a lot of very important items."

Well, perhaps, as concrete goes, all of these "deals" are still in the mixing state, the sand and water more or less a slurried mush at present and the Thai, Malay, Viet, and Korean officials are snickering behind Mr Big's back. That's likely the case, as all this posturing and posing and taking pictures of foreign leaders with Trump stationed in the middle of them - despite the fact that he doesn't even belong in a group of "Southeast Asians" or even just plain "Asians" - is all for the benefit of the usual unsuspecting, fawning, MAGA crowd who hangs on every utterance of the pulchritudinous, porcine president.

Scrupulous examination of the struck deals over the past few days indicate a nearly absence of substance, the words on the official-looking proclamations barely worth the fine linen papers upon which they're written. But, with a few deft strokes of the presidential pen - most likely a Sharpie™ that Trumps' sons, Eric and Don Jr. will sell on eBay or some crypto exchange as an NFT for millions - the public is assuaged and Wall Street assured that the American enterprise will continue to grow and prosper under the inspired leadership of the greatest president since, well, George Washington, as Mr. Trump like to fashion himself.

It's almost over. The Far East fantasy tour finishes on Thursday with the highly-anticipated deal Mr. Trump will make with China, all of China. Not just the coastal areas, or the shipping ports, but the entire land mass which occupies a rather enormous portion of Asia will succumb to Trump’s desire for world domination.

Mr. Trump's mission impossible - which will self-destruct only moments after the invisible ink dries on whatever papers are signed by him and whatever representatives of China's ruling party are designated - is to convince President Xi Jinping to stop sending precursor chemicals for fentanyl to America, stop buying oil from Russia, make life easier of U.S. enterprises doing business in China, accept 15-45% tariffs on anything they export to America, buy shiploads of soybeans from American farmers, and sell the U.S. copious amounts of refined rare earth minerals with which the U.S. military can make weapons by which to obliterate China and its BRICS allies.

If those requirements seem a bit over the top, it's best to be cognizant of the president's uncanny, almost spiritual ability to make the sharpest "America First" deals with every country on the planet (or, at least talk like he does). Trump will return to the United States triumphant, trade wars averted or won, the mantle of success and victory upon his broad shoulders.

At the same time, his government, back home in Washington D.C., can't even keep the lights on, the whole institution burdened by no less than $38 trillion in unpayable debts, shut down for more than four full weeks, and about to deny some 41 or 42 million Americans their monthly allowance for potato and corn chips, salsa, sodas, cookies, ice cream and maybe a couple of lobster tails and steaks.

Some 700,000 federal employees have been working without pay for a month. In some circles, that's known as slavery. In America, it's called paying it forward, or, as the case may be, just putting it on the government's tab.

Considering that Mr. Trump attends their conference with this kind of background baggage, China's diplomats and officials will no doubt acquiesce to his every demand.

But, before Trump's triumphant trade tour concludes, the Federal Reserve, which is not federal in any sense nor does it have any reserves - only debts - is set to issue its policy statement, assuredly to lower the federal funds target rate from 4.00-4.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at 2:00 pm ET today. That, of course, will send stocks soaring, along with gold and silver, especially since the pair of precious metals have been sufficiently beaten down over the past two weeks. Not so for the stock market, which has run up a string of advances befitting assets that actually have value, of which, as we know from the current reading of the Shiller PE at 41.18, stocks are significantly stretched.

BTW: the Shiller PE (CAPE) is closing in fast toward the record of 44.19, set back in the halcyon days of the dotcom boom, in December 1999.

Wealth and prosperity, so easily come by, can just as quickly disappear. But, having learned nothing from booms and busts of the 1920s and 30s, and as recently as 2000-01 and 2008-09, investors are blindsided and blinkered, praying for the best and hoping the worst of their fears remain unrealized.

The show goes on. Get more popcorn.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 28, 2025:
Dow: 47,706.37, +161.78 (+0.34%)
NASDAQ: 23,827.49, +190.04 (+0.80%)
S&P 500: 6,890.89, +15.73 (+0.23%)
NYSE Composite: 21,689.55, -100.08 (-0.46%)