Trump Crashes Markets, Bluffs Pelosi, Outs Hillary, Brennan, Obama (again)

People say a lot of things about President Trump, much of it not so nice, but there's no disputing that through his words and actions he can be wildly amusing or shocking at times.

Tuesday's stock market drama is a case in point. By tweeting that he was instructing his negotiating team (supposedly Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin) to cease dealing with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on a stimulus package, the president sent the market into a violent downward spiral, turning small gains into sizable losses in a matter of minutes.

By the close, stocks suffered nothing more than flesh wounds, approximating an ordinary ho-hum losing session on Wall Street. But, this way is more fun, isn't it? Nancy Pelosi went ballistic, calling the president everything short of a dog-kicker.

About five hours later, after the day-traders had taken their treatments for carpal tunnel from pushing the sell button repeatedly in the closing hours of trading, Trump came back with more tweets, suggesting the airlines could be bailed out and small businesses could receive more PPP loans with money left over from the original CARES Act, passed back in May.

He also tweeted that he would immediately sign a stand-alone bill authorizing $1200 checks to all Americans. He effectively called Pelosi's bluff and she's now stuck looking like the Wicked Witch of the West, withholding money from millions of needy Americans.

In between the stimulus-related tweets, Trump managed to slip in another, authorizing the Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe, to declassify documents, including handwritten notes from former CIA chief John Brennan in 2016, taken during a briefing former President Obama concerning a plot by Hillary Clinton to claim then-candidate Donald Trump to be in collusion with Russian intelligence as a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server ahead of the 2016 US election.

Perhaps even more amusing - or alarming - than Trump's tweeting is the reaction by the mainstream media to the latest in the Clinton-Obama-Brennan-Comey-FBI-CIA-Russia hoax scandal. None of the networks will touch it with ten-foot or longer poles. The New York Times isn't carrying the story, nor is the Washington Post, or any other mainstream outlets, like the Chicago Tribune, Boston Globe, etc.

There are outlets covering what is one of the biggest scandals in American history. More info can be found on Zerohedge.com, the Washington Examiner, Washington Times, Fox News, and elsewhere.

Claiming that the Russia hoax was the biggest scandal in American history and that he had already declassified all the documents, Trump rightly asserts that elements of the deep state in the intelligence community have been slow-walking the release of this information.

Former FBI Director James Comey testified before congress last week, claiming he didn't know anything about the Russian hoax, didn't get any memos on the matter and was generally not involved, despite signing off on multiple FISA requests. Meanwhile, current FBI Director Christopher Wray claims he cannot testify to congress because of COVID-19, even though he would be taking questions and offering answers via video feed. Current CIA Director Gina Haspell has been claiming risks to national security in keeping the documents classified or at least out of sight of the American people.

What the American public is getting used to receiving will look something like this:

Hillary Clinton [REDACTED] and John Brennan [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED]. President Obama [REDACTED] his [REDACTED] in the Oval Office and [REDACTED] his top aides by [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] them.
Vice President Joe Biden [REDACTED][REDACTED] at the time. FBI does not [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and CIA confirms [REDACTED][REDACTED][REDACTED] through official channels.

Somebody needs to make up a big sign that says, "Welcome to America, Now Officially a Third World Nation" and hang it from the Statue of Liberty because that's where we are, thanks to corrupt politicians, the dirtiest intelligence networks the world has ever known, and a media cabal that has descended to the depths of 24/7/365 leftist propaganda.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 6, 2020:
Dow: 27,772.76, -375.84 (-1.34%)
NASDAQ: 11,154.60, -177.89 (-1.57%)
S&P 500: 3,360.95, -47.68 (-1.40%)
NYSE: 12,837.88, -111.72 (-0.86%)

Fearless Rick Again Predicts Trump Victory In Upcoming Presidential Election

With exactly four weeks remaining before election day, this seems an appropriate time to issue the one prediction that actually matters: Donald Trump will be re-elected as president of the United States.

While this may come as a surprise to the minions enraptured by the mainstream media's constant drumbeat of Biden holding a comfortable lead in the polls, Trump supporters will be pleasantly content come October 3rd, as President Trump will likely establish such a large lead in the electoral college that the need to count millions of mail-in votes will become a moot issue.

According to the many varied polls being promoted by the propagandized mainstream media, none have President Trump ahead over rival Joe Biden, who is not the Vice President, as he is incorrectly addressed over and over again on TV interviews and talk shows. Biden is the former vice president, a tidbit of data that the media hopes to sail right over the heads of the information-starved general population.

Calling private citizen Joe Biden, Mr. Vice President is another ruse by the Democrat-controlled media whores to gain traction and votes, as if some officious-sounding title gives the candidate some magic cache. As is the case with most of their devious devices, the more the media does it, the less effective it becomes. Biden was once Vice President; he no longer holds that title.

Being that the general election is more about numbers than titles, whatever October surprises the Democrats cook up between now and November 3rd will have limited effectiveness. Most likely voters have already made up their minds, as much as the media would like to keep everybody on the collective edges of their seats until - and quite likely, well after - the election, the eventual results are already beginning to coalesce according to the one poll which does not have a bias: the monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll, released on October 4, which has Trump ahead by one percent, 46 to 45, over Joe Biden.

While the headline number may appear to make the race a close call, the devil, as usual, is in the details. Unlike most national or state-wide polls favored by the media, the Democracy Institute poll does not engage in tricks like oversampling Democrats, polling registered voters, or polling in urban areas only to achieve the desired outcomes. According to its published methodology, the Democracy Institute monthly poll uses a "randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters" for its general election poll and national party identification turnout models for statewide results.

While a refreshing escape from the norm, the Democracy Institute poll - which correctly predicted both President Trump's 2016 victory and the Brexit vote in Great Britain - offers some detailed insights which eventually lead to an electoral collage landslide of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden, roughly similar - but with an even larger margin - to the 2016 result which was 304 electoral votes for Trump to Hillary Clinton’s 227.

Some of the more salient excepts from the poll include battleground state wins for Trump.

Florida: Trump 48%, Biden 44%

Minnesota: Trump 46%, Biden 44%

New Hampshire: Trump 45%, Biden 43%

Plus, wins for Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a combined tally of 47%-43%.

Other tidbits of information culled from the polling sample include a massive enthusiasm gap for Trump. when asked "Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?" 83% of Trump voters responded positively, to just 49% of Biden voters. This could have a dramatic impact on turnout as it's well known that people who are uninspired by their candidate of choice often fail to show up at the actual polls that count.

The poll also reveals what's known as the "shy vote," wherein people are not exactly forthcoming in announcing their choice to friends, co-workers or relatives.

On the question, "Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?" only 22% of Trump voters responded "yes" compared to 87% of Biden voters. This is a factor other polls fail to take into account and it skews the results to a point of producing a false positive for Biden. Countless numbers of Trump supporters say they purposely lie to the general pollsters for a variety of reasons, which helps explain why the polls in 2016 were so far off the mark and why they will be again this time.

When asked which issues were most important, the DI poll produced the following:
Law & order/riots/violence = 32%
Economy/jobs = 30%
Education = 15%
Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 15%
Immigration = 8%

Trump scores well on the most important issues. The poll found Trump well ahead on key questions surrounding law and order and dealing with protests over Biden. He also led Biden in the poll on the economy, 60% to 40%.

Downtown Magazine and Money Daily publisher, Fearless Rick isn't suggesting that his prediction is based upon the outcome of just one poll, rather, the one poll that appeared to cut through the bias, the noise, the propaganda, and the hype shows Trump with a clear advantage, something the mainstream media wants to keep hidden from the general population.

Why the media wants the public to believe Biden should win is a mixed bag for the Democrats. On the one hand, their fictional narrative gives them ammunition for post-election craziness, alleging that the Republicans somehow stole the election, as they did with the Russia narrative after Trump's "surprising" victory over Clinton. To be expected on the night of November 3 and forward through and probably beyond the January 20, 2021 inaguration, are court challenges, more protests, riots, looting and burning, slanted journalism alleging interference in mail-in balloting, and as much divisive rhetoric as the radical left can emote.

On the other hand, promoting a Biden lead in the polls on a continuing basis might actually backfire, surpressing turnout for the candidate. People who believe Biden is going to win handily might just stay home on election day or not bother to acquire an absentee ballot or just casually "forget" to mail it in.

This also lends toward a COVID advantage for Trump voters. The messages from the dueling candidates are distinct. Biden says everybody should wear masks all the time; Trump doesn't really tout mask-wearing as a preventive measure. Biden encourages fearing the virus; Trump advises to not let it control your lives. Therefore, Trump voters appear to be more likely to turn out on election day at actual, physical polling places than Democrats. It's a unique condition which seems to favor Trump supporters.

Whichever way one leans is eventually going to be sorted out on election day or in the near future beyond that. It's actually difficult to imagine a Biden victory, given the apparent frailness of the former Vice President and the lack of enthusiasm by his base. On the other side, in spite of the COVID scare, Trump rallies are attended by thousands of rabid supporters, just as during the lead-up to the 2016 vote.

Judging by the media stance of being in the bag for the Democrat candidate just as in 2016, and the polls giving Biden a sometimes insurmountable lead, the evidence leads to the unmistakable conclusion that Trump will win re-election, and probably by a margin exceeding that of his initial victory.

The best source for the Democratic Institute poll, its data, methodology, and conclusions can be found here.

As a reminder, Fearless Rick correctly predicted a Trump landslide in 2016.

At the Close, Monday, October 5, 2020:
Dow: 28,148.64, +465.83 (+1.68%)
NASDAQ: 11,332.49, +257.47 (+2.32%)
S&P 500: 3,408.60, +60.18 (+1.80%)
NYSE: 12,949.65, +199.86 (+1.57%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Trumps' COVID, Poor Jobs Report Cast Longer Recession Shadow Over Markets And Economy

Friday morning, awakening to news that President Trump and First Lady Melania had tested positive for COVID-19, many Americans - after months of annoyance, disturbance, lockdowns, and social disruption - felt what it was like to be human again.

The news was like being hit with a dull object. Once again, we were able to share pain and sympathy. We put aside the petty arguments, the baseless accusations, the political bias and shared a common grieving for the first couple. Outside of a few insensitive media personalities, there came a moment of peace. Whatever one felt about our boisterous president, he was, for a moment, our president, representative for all of us, and we'd be damned if some invisible virus were to put him down.

Shock permeated even the dullest facades. Even the usual bombast from the canyons of Wall Street were subdued. Making money trading stocks suddenly seems less important. The Dow opened down nearly 350 points. All other markets were similarly in the red.

As the day wore on, stocks recovered somewhat as the news flow began to indicate that the president and Melania would be receiving the best of care and were likely to survive. An understanding that COVID-19 kills very few of those infected and both Mr. Trump and his wife were in good health overall. By the end of the day, only the NASDAQ was damaged badly, losing more than two percent on the day, wiping out some of the gains made earlier in the week.

That was Friday. Most of the week was spent racking up profits. When it was all said and done, the Dow and S&P finished with the first positive weekly close in five weeks. The NASDAQ put in its second straight weekly gain and the NYSE Composite ended with its second weekly plus in the last five.

Despite Friday's dull thud, exacerbated by a poor showing in the September Non-Farm Payroll data, stocks had put in the best week since August, with the gains ranging between 1.48 and 2.12%.

The September employment report was a major disappointment and that may have had an equally depressing effect on Friday's session as the news on the president. Forecast to have added 850,000 jobs, only 661,000 were actually created. The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 7.9%, but that improvement was overshadowed by the major miss on the headline jobs number.

Overall, the report deflated hopes for a quick recovery in the economy and brought out fears that the coronavirus-inspired recession could last longer than most were anticipating. Almost all cities remain in some kind of restricted state, with business closures and swelling unemployment the norm. In the countryside, the mood was a little brighter, though many Midwestern states were seeing a rise in COVID-19 cases, and that was troubling to everybody.

Parts of Europe were readying for another round of lockdowns and stay-at-home conditions and the feeling that a second wave of the virus, along with a complicated scenario with the normal seasonal flu, might prompt more restrictions on school, business, travel, and employment. The economy has been put through a wringer and parts of the country and economy have been severely damaged. A longer, more painful recession looms large.

Everything seemed to be deflating at the same time. Oil, which has been under pressure, unable to break out from its recent range, dropped to its lowest level in six months, ending the week badly, down from $40.25 a week ago to $37.05 at Friday's close.

Treasuries were hit, but only slightly. While the short maturities remained tethered to the zero-bound, the 10-year note gained four basis points, from 1.66% to 1.70%. The 30-year added eight basis points, from 1.40% the prior week, to 1.48% on Friday.

Precious metals, prices of which should be heading to the stratosphere, were mired in muck. For the week, gold gained nearly $40 per ounce, though the current level is far below the recent peak. Closing out the week at $1899.84 per ounce, the glorious metal is down eight percent from the August 6 high over $2063.54.

Silver, the undeclared enemy of the state, spent the week pricing off recent lows. On September 25th, spot silver stood at a depressed $22.89 per troy ounce. By Friday, October 2, it had recovered slightly, finishing at $23.74, though that number was hardly representative of physical demand and heightened premiums being charged by dealers amid a prolonged shortage. It was a far cry from the August 10 high of $29.13, a decline of 18.5%, nearing bear market status for spot when indications in the real world are exactly the opposite.

Presented are the most recent prices for common gold and silver items on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):

Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 29.58 / 44.05 / 34.53 / 34.23
1 oz silver bar: 28.80 / 48.00 / 33.78 / 32.26
1 oz gold coin: 2,000.00 / 2,045.09 / 2,019.52 / 2,014.60
1 oz gold bar: 1,980.00 / 2,023.09 / 2,007.88 / 2,009.45

It is plain to see that premiums for the average or median-priced 1 ounce gold coin or bar are over $100 higher than spot prices and dealers are getting them and more. Silver premiums remain through the roof, with average or median-priced 1 ounce silver coin $10 or more over spot.

The stranglehold that the spot and futures markets have on precious metals is largely unreflected in the physical market. When traders begin to stand for delivery instead of setting in cash, the fraud on the public by the futures traders and spot price-setters will be blown to smithereens and prices for gold and silver will rise parabolically. When that day comes, nobody knows, though it is all but certain that precious metals prices, at least in their relationships to fiat currencies are a far cry from true price discovery.

At the Close, Friday, October 2, 2020:
Dow: 27,682.81, -134.09 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 11,075.02, -251.49 (-2.22%)
S&P 500: 3,348.44, -32.36 (-0.96%)
NYSE: 12,749.79, +22.95 (+0.18%)

For the Week:
Dow: +508.85 (+1.87%)
NASDAQ: +161.46 (+1.48%)
S&P 500: +49.96 (+1.51%)
NYSE: +264.41 (+2.12%)

President Trump, First Lady Melania Test Positive For COVID-19; Wall Street Braces For Reaction

Overnight, it ws revealed that President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump have both tested positive for the coronavirus, COVID-19. They are beginning treatment protocols and will be quarantined at the White House until further notice.

Wall Street's knee-jerk reaction was a sharp decline in stock futures, which were also awaiting the September Non-Farm Payroll report, released at 8:30 am.

September jobs came in at 661,000, well short of expectations of 859,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 7.9%, which is largely a fiction, as very many formerly employed persons have now dropped off the official tallies.

Futures remain near session lows, with Dow futures off 340 points.

Thursday's results left much to be desired, as the Dow, after being up by 250 points in early trading, eventually slipped into negative territory and finished up a mere 35 points. The NASDAQ, however, closed near its highs of the day, gaining nearly 160 points.

What shook up markets on Thursday was the continued stalemate between Democrats and Republicans over a fresh stimulus bill. They're still about $600 billion apart, the Dems looking for a $2.2 trillion package while the Republicans have offered $1.6 trillion through Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Included in both packages is bailout money for ailing airlines which had held off firings and layoffs until September 30 as per their agreement in the CARES Act. As of Thursday, United Airlines and American Airlines have begun laying off workers, though both companies agreed they could cancel the furloughs should the congress commit to a stimulus package.

For their part, Democrats in the House, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, passed a $2.2 trillion resolution late Thursday, but the Senate is unlikely to entertain the measure, considering it too expensive and full of wasteful spending.

It's worth noting that the federal government has entered a new fiscal year as of October 1. Starting it off with a big, gaping budget hole may not be the most desired circumstance, but the lawmakers may not be left with much choice. The longer they delay, the more workers the airlines will let go, and the effects of airline workers on the dole will have spillover effects into the general economy, gnawing away at any nascent recovery in the wake of the COVID crash.

Another ironic feature of the first Friday session of October is that Trump, so vilified by the press, is now causing market stress. The political ramifications of the president's illness are far-reaching, with the election less than five weeks ahead.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead by 642 points for the week as of Thursday's close. With poor employment figures, no new stimulus on the horizon, and the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's status, those gains could be scuttled in a week-ending selloff.

Stay tuned. Friday looks to be a wild ride.

At the Close, Thursday, October 1, 2020:
Dow: 27,816.90, +35.20 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 11,326.51, +159.01 (+1.42%)
S&P 500: 3,380.80, +17.80 (+0.53%)
NYSE: 12,726.84, +24.94 (+0.20%)

Debate Pundits Target Trump; Airlines Seeking 2nd Bailout Boost Hopes For Stimulus Deal

Now that the post-mortems are coming in on the debate, just one more thing…

Apparently, it's OK for Joe Biden to repeatedly call the president a liar, to tell him to shut up, to call him a racist, call him a clown, repeatedly assert that he lies all the time, and that he "doesn't care about you," but when Trump tells the Proud Boys to "stand down and stand ready," that somehow crosses a line.

If, somehow, Joe Biden and his corrupt cohorts, crooked pollsters, and media lackeys manage to win or steal this election, there's going to be hell to pay and one has to wonder if saving this country is worth the effort. What is worth considering is that perhaps only half of it should be preserved, the half made up of the producers, the givers, the workers. The half consisting of the takers, the protesters, the rioters and looters will need to fend for themselves.

This election process, on top of the COVID nonsense, radical ideologies, rioting, burning, looting, a compromised media, and a party - the Democrats - facing extinction, has made people in America very angry and borderline crazy. The country cannot survive and prosper with this kind of division. The real perpetrators of the rancor and divisiveness must be sought out, exposed and brought to justice.

Enough on that. If the response from Wall Street can be gauged by the reaction in markets on Wednesday following the debate (debacle might be a better descriptor), the financial crowd is sadly factoring in a Biden win on November 3rd. Would they get their wish for more handouts, bailouts, endless streams of worthless fiat currency from the Fed and the federal government, the US economy will be kaput in less than three years. The banana republic promised by the Democrat party will become a reality - if it isn't already - and the bonanza of money (currency) for nothing, welfare, universal basic income, the Fed's MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), will flow to the coffers of the insolvent banks and publicly-held corporations.

The end result of unbridled currency creation is a further expansion of the wealth inequality gap, social disjunction, and rampant inflation. Such a system would eventually collapse under its own weight, but not before the wealth hoarders in the political and financial circles have stripped away enough for themselves and scurried off to distant shores. If this is what is coming, most people want no part of it, though many will be forced into acceptance by fear of losing their livelihoods, their families, their whole existence.

History offers comparable examples of runaway currencies, most notably, Weimar Germany from 1921-1923 and Zimbabwe from 2007 to 2009 and again today. Is this what awaits America under the auspices of a central government, central bank authority?

The picture painted is not a pretty one and few are aware of the distinct possibility of it becoming reality and the consequences of such policies. The United States is rushing headlong into disaster without bothering to comprehend or question the actions of its political and economic leaders. For the present, focusing on the election and a vaccine for COVID-19 (if one is even needed) are fanning the flames of division while keeping the discussion off the economy. This recipe for disaster will come to full fruition while stocks soar, pricing in Democrat party takeover of congress and the presidency.

In front of congress presently is the issue of another round of coronavirus-related stimulus, this one prompted not by the needs of millions of Americans, but by the demands of the nation's airlines, which, after a decade-long orgy of stock buybacks and failure to re-invest in their own businesses, are threatening to lay off as many as 50,000 workers.

A CARES Act deadline of September 30, by which the airlines received a $25 billion bailout on condition that they not layoff or fire workers until after that date, has passed and United and American Airlines together are threatening mass layoffs and firings if congress doesn't give them another $25 billion.

United (UAL) spent roughly 90% of their free cash flow, an amount of nearly $10 billion dollars, on stock buybacks from 2014 to 2019. Over a similar period, American (AAL) was even more the spendthrift, shedding 96% of free cash flow - $12 billion - on stock buybacks. Now, these two profligate stock manipulators are holding a gun to the heads of congress and their employees. By any reasonable standard, they should be bankrupted rather than supported by yet another infusion of public cash.

For their part, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are about $600 billion apart on a stimulus plan. Pelosi and her Democrat allies have put together a $2.2 trillion plan. Mnuchin reportedly offered $1.6 trillion on Wednesday as a compromise. The consensus betting is that after three months of wrangling, the threat from the airlines will prompt a deal which will include another round of stimulus checks similar to those doled out earlier this year. Direct deposits and checks could begin to be distributed as soon as next week if a deal is struck by Friday.

On Thursday morning, the Labor Department announced that weekly initial unemployment claims of 837,000 against 850,000 expected and 873,000 during the prior week.

Continuing claims for the week ended September 19 stood at 11.767 million.

With less than an hour to the opening bell, stock futures are positioned strongly positive. dow futures are up more than 200 points. NASDAQ futures are ahead by more than 150 points as market participants anticipate a stimulus deal while ignoring the continuing unemployment crisis.

As the fourth quarter begins, the US economy is once again being powered by the madness of greed.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 30, 2020:
Dow: 27,781.70, +329.04 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: 11,167.51, +82.26 (+0.74%)
S&P 500: 3,363.00, +27.53 (+0.83%)
NYSE: 12,701.88, +99.25 (+0.79%)