Stocks suffered their worst performance of the year last week and the trauma is unlikely to abate as concerns over tariffs proposed and imposed by President Trump have rattled the investor class. Some tariffs have already been imposed, more to come April 2nd, when reciprocal tariffs have been promised.
It's not only tariffs worrying the market. Valuation is high on the list of issues affecting stock prices. Stocks were on a tear from November, 2023, to late last year and into January, when the S&P hit an all-time high.
Stocks have backed off considerably, with the NASDAQ dipping into correction (-10%) twice during the week.
The price of oil continues to slide. Gold and silver rallied.
Stocks
The week was pretty rough for equity holders. All of the major indices have fallen below their respective 50-day moving averages, except the NASDAQ, which closed the last two sessions of the week below its 200-day moving average.
While the broadly-measured NYSE Composite remains green for the year, up 2.49%, along with the Dow (+0.61%), the S&P is down 1.89% year-to-date, the NASDAQ, -5.77%. Dow Transports are down 1.80% for 2025.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average has closed below its 200-day moving average for two weeks straight (10 sessions) and is clearly into correction territory, down 12.1%, from 17754.38 late November to a closing price of 15610.42 Friday. Dow Theorists contend that the Industrials must confirm the downside move in order to indicate a change in the primary trend.
Dropping from 45,014.04 December 4th to 42,801.72 at Friday's close is a 4.91% dip, the Dow is signaling that it very well may not find a bottom soon. Intra-day drops have been closer to 42,500. Any sustained downside should be sufficient to satisfy the primary trend confirmation requirement. That's a wait-and-see proposition, though it's becoming somewhat obvious that many traders are not waiting for another shoe to drop, so to speak.
A few stragglers are still reporting earnings next week:
Monday: (before open) NetPower (NPWR), Telos (TLS), Biontech (BNTX); (after close) Vail Resorts (MTN), Oracle (ORCL)
Tuesday: (before open) Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL), Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Ciena (CIEN), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Kohl's (KSS); (after close) Groupon (GRPN), StitchFix (SFIX)
Wednesday: (before open) iRobot (IRBT), Ondas (ONDS); (after close) Vrown Castle (CCI), American Eagle Outfitters (AEG), Adobe (ADBE)
Thursday: (before open) Dollar General (DG); (after close) DocuSign (DOCU), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Semtech (SMTC)
Friday: (before open) Li Auto (LI).
February CPI is released Wednesday, PPI Thursday, both before the open (8:30 am EDT)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date |
1 Mo |
1.5 mo |
2 Mo |
3 Mo |
4 Mo |
6 Mo |
1 Yr |
01/31/2025 |
4.37 |
N/A |
4.37 |
4.31 |
4.33 |
4.28 |
4.17 |
02/07/2025 |
4.37 |
N/A |
4.38 |
4.35 |
4.37 |
4.30 |
4.25 |
02/14/2025 |
4.37 |
N/A |
4.38 |
4.34 |
4.35 |
4.32 |
4.23 |
02/21/2025 |
4.36 |
N/A |
4.38 |
4.32 |
4.34 |
4.30 |
4.15 |
02/28/2025 |
4.38 |
4.37 |
4.38 |
4.32 |
4.32 |
4.25 |
4.08 |
03/07/2025 |
4.38 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.34 |
4.29 |
4.29 |
4.05 |
Date |
2 Yr |
3 Yr |
5 Yr |
7 Yr |
10 Yr |
20 Yr |
30 Yr |
01/31/2025 |
4.22 |
4.27 |
4.36 |
4.47 |
4.58 |
4.88 |
4.83 |
02/07/2025 |
4.29 |
4.31 |
4.34 |
4.42 |
4.49 |
4.75 |
4.69 |
02/14/2025 |
4.26 |
4.26 |
4.33 |
4.41 |
4.47 |
4.75 |
4.69 |
02/21/2025 |
4.19 |
4.19 |
4.26 |
4.35 |
4.42 |
4.69 |
4.67 |
02/28/2025 |
3.99 |
3.99 |
4.03 |
4.14 |
4.24 |
4.55 |
4.51 |
03/07/2025 |
3.99 |
4.01 |
4.09 |
4.21 |
4.32 |
4.66 |
4.62 |
Rates didn't change much at the short end. Longer-dated maturities sold off, as the 10-year yield gained 0.08% and the 30-year added 0.09%. Spreads widened, with 2s-10s increasing from +25 to +33, and full spectrum out to +24 from +13. The fact that stocks and bonds both sold off during the week suggests a strong preference for cash, either in money markets or short-term bills.
Nothing to get excited about, though the market may be saying that inflation isn't as big a worry as the media and some financial analysts have been suggesting.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
Oil/Gas
The fall in the price of WTI crude oil has now reached seven straight weeks on Friday closes. It's dropped from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, $70.25 on February 21, $69.95 on the 28th, and finally, to $67.05 on the New York close this Friday. Seven consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 12 percent and a -43.6% from the June 3, 2022 high of $118.87 (thanks, Joe!) constitutes a definitive signal that lower prices are here to stay.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump remained steady at $3.06. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling as long as crude prices continue to drop. There's a lag time of anywhere from three to six weeks, as previous deliveries at higher prices are wound down.
California remains on top, though down a another eight cents from last week, at $4.67.
Pennsylvania fell five cents, to $3.26, the Keystone State remaining the longtime price leader in the Northeast. Vermont ($3.14) has taken second place over New York, at $3.11, followed by Maine ($3.05). Connecticut ($3.02) and Massachusetts ($2.98) saw small price drops. Maryland is back down to $2.92. New Jersey is at $2.95.
Illinois was down a penny, to $3.17. Ohio ($2.79) and Indiana ($2.86) were up slightly, but well below recent readings.
Mississippi ($2.58) is the lowest in the country, better than Louisiana ($2.62), Tennessee ($2.64) and Kentucky ($2.66), and Alabama ($2.68). South Carolina and Oklahoma are both at $2.69, followed by North Carolina and Arkansas at $2.72. Georgia ($2.88) and Florida ($3.07) complete the low-cost SouthEast region. Kansas ($2.79) is the lowest in the Midwest. Missouri ($2.85), Iowa ($2.95), and Nebraska ($2.98) were all higher this week.
Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in four more states than last week. At least 33 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.
The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.37) was down three cents. Oregon dropped a mere one cent, at $3.71, while Nevada dropped six, also down to $3.71. Washington fell three cents to $4.09, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($2.98) was down, rejoining the sub-$3.00 group, but Idaho ($3.14) was up one cent.
Bitcoin
This week: $83,414.10
Last week: $94,335.26
2 weeks ago: $95,900.56
6 months ago: $59,123.20
One year ago: $63,043.77
Five years ago: $8,902.84
Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Last Sunday (3/2), bitcoin was boosted by nearly $10,000 on Sunday morning to over $94,000, on word of the White House "Crypto Summit" which took place Friday (3/7). During the week, the price of bitcoin came down, then back up, but, starting around 3:00 pm Friday, right after the White House disappointed all but the noblest "hodlers", the price has been heading straight down, from $90,469 to its current level just above $83,000. Talk about "buy the rumor, sell the news." This was a textbook case.
As Money Daily has expressed confidently in the past, bitcoin is a con which will eventually become worthless.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.64; last week: 91.23
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Gold and silver both rebounded nicely this week. Gold remains the store of value by which all other things "should" be measured. Silver, thanks to over 150 years of de-monetization (from the Crime of 1873 to the present) has been relegated to being a poor step-sister, though it it still considered a monetary metal in most of the world and will eventually return to a realistic ratio with gold, though possibly not in the lifetimes of anybody alive today. That's just the reality of the fractional reserve fiat money regime under which we all suffer. Still, it's been a solid investment the past three to five years and will never be worthless, which is more than can be said of stocks and crypto.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
Item/Price |
Low |
High |
Average |
Median |
1 oz silver coin: |
36.00 |
49.95 |
40.92 |
39.00 |
1 oz silver bar: |
36.75 |
49.00 |
41.67 |
40.26 |
1 oz gold coin: |
2,971.55 |
3,152.90 |
3,063.04 |
3,052.67 |
1 oz gold bar: |
2,939.00 |
3,097.90 |
3,026.93 |
3,039.98 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was slightly lower on the week, falling to $40.46, a decline of 44 cents from the March 2nd price of $40.90 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Considering the speed at which President Trump has acted to right what's wrong with America and the world, expect more disruptions for at least through the midterm elections, which are still 20 months in the future (November 2026). Short, and maybe even longer term, stocks don't appear to be the place to be.
Choose wisely.
At the Close, Friday, March 7, 2025:
Dow: 42,801.72, +222.64 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: 18,196.22, +126.96 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: 5,770.20, +31.68 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 19,573.06, +66.72 (+0.34%)
For the Week:
Dow: -1039.19 (-2.37%)
NASDAQ: -651.06 (-3.45%)
S&P 500: -183.30 (-3.10%)
NYSE Composite: -455.13 (-2.27%)
Dow Transports: -376.07 (2.35%)