WEEKEND WRAP: Bitcoin Tops $100,000; Dow, S&P, NASDAQ New All-Time Highs; Gold, SIlver Continue Decline; Gas at Multi-Year Low

This story is getting a bit old, but bears repeating: Stocks continue their ascent to who-knows-where, as the Shiller PE settled Friday at the second highest level ever, 38.88, slightly above 38.58, the pandemic level of October, 2021.

Considering that the highest reading ever, 44.19, was at the height of the dotcom boom in November 1999, implies that this bubble has further upside because it almost certainly is the biggest balloon ever.

Stocks do not always go up. It's a known fact, just like real estate in the early 2000s, when the most profitable activity was to own residential real estate and do nothing else. That episode ended in the sub-prime collapse which took real estate values down 40-60% and more in some cases, triggering millions of foreclosures nationwide and widespread financial reordering.

Will this crash play out gradually, then all at once, like in Hemingway's "The Sun Also Rises"? That seems to be the preferred pathway. The months and years ahead are sure to be entertaining and challenging.

Stocks

While the NASDAQ gained 3.34% for the week, the Dow Transportation Average sank 4.20%, just a week after making a new all-time high.

The Dow made an all-time closing high on Wednesday, but traded lower the other four days of the week.

All of the major indices are riding well above their 50-and-200-day moving averages. The NASDAQ is particularly stretched, more than five percent above its 50-day moving average and all of them have remained above their 50-week moving averages since November of 2023.

Currently, there's more than ample bullishness amid uncertainty, though the market appears to believe the incoming Trump administration will usher in an era of greater prosperity, or, at least, accommodating conditions for stocks.

Friday's report of 227,000 jobs gained in the November non-farm payroll data was just about what the market expected and reinforces the contention that the Fed's path of rate cuts will continue without interruption.

S&P 500 sectors for the week were mixed, led to the upside by Telecom (+4.1%), Information Technology (+3.4%), and Consumer Discretionary (+5.9%), while being held back by Healthcare (-2.1%), Utilities (-3.8%), Industrials (-2.3%), Materials (-3%) Energy (-4.6%) and Real Estate (-2.6%).

The week ahead will supply November CPI on Wednesday and PPI, Thursday. Like the latest employment figures, the accounts are expected to be benign, which reinforces a full speed ahead narrative for stocks.

A few notable earning reports in the week ahead include Oracle (ORCL), Toll Brothers (TOL), Yext (YEXT), and Vail Resorts (MTN) on Monday; AutoZone ((AZO), Ollie’s (OLLI), and Academy Sports (ASO) Tuesday morning, Game Stop (GME) and Sportsman’s Warehouse ((SPWH) Tuesday after the bell.

On Wednesday, Macy’s (M), Vera Bradley (VRA), and Adobe (ADBE) report, with Ciena (CIEN), Costco (COST), and Broadcom (AVGO) on Thursday.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/01/2024	4.75	4.74	4.61	4.53	4.42	4.28
11/08/2024	4.70	4.69	4.63	4.53	4.42	4.32
11/15/2024	4.70	4.67	4.60	4.52	4.44	4.34
11/22/2024	4.72	4.67	4.63	4.53	4.46	4.42
11/29/2024	4.76	4.69	4.58	4.52	4.42	4.30
12/06/2024	4.57	4.50	4.42	4.42	4.34	4.19

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/01/2024	4.21	4.18	4.22	4.30	4.37	4.68	4.57
11/08/2024	4.26	4.18	4.20	4.25	4.30	4.58	4.47
11/15/2024	4.31	4.27	4.30	4.36	4.43	4.70	4.60
11/22/2024	4.37	4.32	4.30	4.35	4.41	4.67	4.60
11/29/2024	4.13	4.10	4.05	4.10	4.18	4.45	4.36
12/06/2024	4.10	4.05	4.03	4.09	4.15	4.42	4.34

All yields were lower on the week, but especially short term rates, i,e, bills of 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, 120-day and six-month duration. 30-day and 60-day yields were down 19 basis points. By contrast, the 2-year and 10-year yields only fell by three basis points each.

Nothing shows more conviction that the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds target rate by 0.25% at the next FOMC meeting (Dec. 17-18) than the enormous drop at the short end of the curve. It's a near-certainty at this point that the Fed is committed to cutting rates on a regular basis. They know the economy is sputtering and are trying to provide relief. The Fed is also quite well aware that the current debt burden and interest payments by Treasury in excess of $1 trillion annually is unsustainable and must be curtailed now that they've nearly bankrupted the federal government (with ample assistance from the free-spending congress, as always).

The big drop on the short end of the curve resulted in further flattening. 2s10s held steady at +5 basis points, but full spectrum fell closer to dis-inversion, at -23.

Timing is ominous. The Fed's plan to flatten the curve completely coincides with Inauguration Day, January 20, and just prior to the January 28-29 FOMC meeting. Two cuts of 0.25% would bring the federal funds target rate down to 4.00-4.25%, implying 30-day bills right around 4.12-4.20%. With the 30-year hovering in the same area, nobody in fixed income, including banks that lend to business, would make any money as there would be no spread upon which to "borrow short, lend long."

Those looking for a liquidity crisis might find one early next year.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil fell near recent lows again this week, closing at $67.17 on Friday, down nearly a buck from $68.15 quoted last Friday. Oil's price continues to reflect the Middle East standoff and the lack of progress in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Trump soon to enter the picture is also keeping a lid on oil, as is the concern over recession, already a reality in Europe. China's slowdown and a global glut adds to the woes of the producers who apparently cannot cut back enough, lest they destroy their own economies.

Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump of $2.99 a gallon, down four cents from the prior week and the first sub-$3.00 reading since May 2021. For reference purposes concerning the direction of gas prices under the incoming Trump administration, the national average never rose above $3.00 from 2016 through 2020. Nothing beats price inflation better than lower prices for oil and gas. Surely, less pain at the pump will translate to happier consumers overall.

California continues to be the price leader, at $4.32 a gallon, down five cents from the prior week and well below prices seen during the summer.

Pennsylvania prices are down, but saw a rise of five cents this week, at $3.27, with the Keystone State holding the high price in the Northeast. New York was static, at $3.12. Connecticut ($3.04) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were slightly lower, while Maryland became the latest state to dip below $3.00, at $2.97 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to wane. Even Illinois was down seven cents ($3.13).

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.44) continue to be by far the lowest in the nation, though five cents higher on the week. Following are Texas ($2.56), Mississippi ($2.57), and Arkansas ($2.59). Louisiana, Kansas, and Tennessee all check in at $2.65. Florida ($3.06) remains the outlier, with all other Southeastern states well below $3.00, including Georgia ($2.89) and North Carolina ($2.84).

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 35 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast are the over-$3.00 holdouts

Arizona ($3.16) was down three cents on the week, with Oregon at $3.48, Nevada at $3.61, and Washington at $3.95, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.92) and Idaho ($2.99) have both come down steadily over the last eight months.

Bitcoin

This week: $99,645.69
Last week: $97,184.05
2 weeks ago: $97,283.64
6 months ago: $69,277.68
One year ago: $43,790.26
Five years ago: $8,020.98

Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up 125% year-to-date and more than 40% since the November 5 U.S. elections, topping out at $103,511.60 this week.

With bitcoin hitting the century mark, pundits and skeptics are split over where its headed, with supporters loudly calling for $200,000 as the next logical stop. Those who consider bitcoin to be the ultimate folly, like Peter Schiff, continue to preach that it is not money, has no store of value nor means of exchange properties, but merely fantastic, fanatical speculation.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 84.31; last week: 85.97

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/8: $2,691.70
Gold price 11/15: $2,567.40
Gold price 11/22: $2,743.20
Gold price 11/29: $2,673.90
Gold price 12/6: $2,654.90

Silver price 11/8: $31.42
Silver price 11/15: $30.33
Silver price 11/22: $31.85
Silver price 11/29: $31.10
Silver price 12/6: $31.49

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	33.01	48.99	39.42	37.27
1 oz silver bar:	34.00	44.68	39.29	38.84
1 oz gold coin:	2,728.74	2,908.78	2,791.17	2,779.44
1 oz gold bar:	2,740.78	2,789.80	2,752.73	2,747.03

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) trended well lower this week, to $38.71, a decline of $1.73 cents below the November 29 price of $40.44 per troy ounce.

Prices have continued their retreat in both gold and silver. While these lower levels may be temporary, there's reason to believe that Trump policies may keep a lid on prices for a longer period of time. Upcoming Chinese New Year and wedding season in India are likely to boost demand over the near term and silver supply is low. Central banks may have slowed their purchasing of gold slightly, though that also appears to be only a temporary condition.

The longer outlook for the U.S. dollar and fiat currencies in general continues to put a floor under gold prices, with silver lagging, but still tagging along.

WEEKEND WRAP

With the fall of the Syrian government making headlines Sunday morning, there's little doubt that incoming President Trump has already been in contact with world leaders and is influencing decisions on military and economic fronts. Syria's demise may well have been part of a compromise package worked out between Trump and Putin, with Ukraine the ultimate bargaining chip. Russia's willingness to allow Assad's government to collapse and its leader to flee comes at a most opportune time for the United States and its major Middle East ally, Israel.

President Trump promises an end to militarism and conflict and greater competence and cooperation in foreign affairs. If he can also keep inflation down, cut taxes for the middle class, and spur domestic manufacturing, what's not to like?

Food for thought as we proceed through the holidays towards Inauguration Day.

At the Close, Friday, December 6, 2024:
Dow: 44,642.52, -123.19 (-0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,859.77, +159.05 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: 6,090.27, +15.16 (+0.25%)
NYSE Coposite: 20,107.79, -49.66 (-0.25%)

For the Week:
Dow: -268.13 (-0.60%)
NASDAQ: +641.60 (+3.34%)
S&P 500: +57.89 (+0.96%)
NYSE Composite: -164.25 (-0.81%)
Dow Transports: -739.23 (-4.20%)

Stocks Retreated Prior to November NFP +227,000; Sold the Rumor and Appear to be Buying the News

Futures were initially lower after the BLS announced November Non-Farm Payrolls up 227,000, but changed direction before 9:00 am ET, a half hour after the jobs data became public.

Overall, though the number of jobs created in November was an enormous improvement from the October disaster, which was revised up by 24,000, from +12,000 to +36,000.

From the release:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs.

Particular notice should be paid to that last, brief, four-word sentence: Retail trade lost jobs.

In a healthy, normal U.S. economy, retail would have been adding jobs in anticipation of increased holiday sales. As a whole, retail trade lost 28,000 jobs over the course of the month. That drop can probably be attributed to a small number of factors, the most prominent being the continuing shift from brick-and-mortar physical stores to online shopping. The internet has completely revolutionized how retail operates. Some companies have adapted, others are still playing catch-up, while some have given up and gone out of business, like Bed, Bath and Beyond, Big Lots, Rue21, Express, 99¢ Only, Joann, The Body Shop, and a host of restaurant chains, led by T.G.I Friday's and Red Lobster.

Accelerating the retail decline is the decimation seen in the number of shopping malls overall. according to Capital One Research, in 1986, there were some 25,000 malls in the United States. On average, from 1986 to 2017, 581 shopping malls closed every year. From 2017 to 2022, the rate of mall closures practically doubled to 1,170 closing every year.

The other factor can be described as an economy teetering on the brink of recession, a condition that's been persisting, or so it seems, for the better part of the last two years. While the Biden administration routinely fudged numbers to their benefit to make the economy appear healthier than it actually was, the coming storm from expected government downsizing at the federal level is about to usher in a recession for real, which is why stock futures headed higher as the cash session approached Friday morning.

As leading indicators go, another one to watch is the price of oil and gas at the pump, both of which are at or approaching multi-month lows. WTI crude oil this morning is trading at $67.58, a sizable decline from the brief high Wednesday morning of $70.34. Gasbuddy.com reports the average price of $3.02 for a gallon of unleaded regular, the lowest price since May, 2021, and also the last time the national average was under $3.00.

If gas isn't moving, cars, trucks, busses and other vehicles aren't either. The lower price of oil and gas is partially the cause of a glut on the global market along with slack demand, especially in developed economies.

With most of Europe already in recession, it won't be long before the U.S. finally admits that things are slowing down. For now, Wall Street is content to believe in anything supporting the narrative that the U.S. is ship-shape and sailing along toward a brighter future, rather than face the reality of a slowing economy, failing infrastructure, and advancing policies that lean heavily towards austerity and deflation.

Believe what you will, but relying on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - which just recently had to admit they overstated job creating by 818,000 in 2023 - has been nothing short of a freak show.

Further out along the argument of jobs and the economy is how these figures will affect the Fed's upcoming policy decision, on December 18, and whether the pace of rate cuts will proceed on a regular basis into 2025. That's an easily answered question. The Fed started with a 50 basis point cut in September, cut another 25 basis points in November, and wil likely cut by that same amount again in December and at the next four FOMC meetings in 2025 - January, March, May, and June.

Five cuts of 0.25% will bring the federal funds rate down from its current range of 4.50-4.75% to 3.25-3.50%, a more comfortable level for all involved, at par or slightly above the inflation rate, but stimulative enough to cushion recession losses and keep dis-inflation contained. If the Fed chooses to accelerate the cuts to 0.50% per meeting or continues cuts well into the second half of 2025, that would indicate deeper recession conditions and outright price deflation, which is at the top of the list of greatest Fed fears, alongside threats from crypto-currencies, Trump policies, and the BRICS.

Friday's trading may offer some indication of what's ahead. Should the morning's relaxed attitude devolve into another day of selling, the message might be that the legendary bell at the top of rallies has been rung, though there's always a "Santa Claus" rally to brighten spirits before year's end.

If the market considers a recession, job losses, and government austerity a recipe for higher stock prices - how could they? - then the bubble still isn't ready for popping. The remaining 16 trading days in 2024 ought to be interesting, but even more so, what happens in January is sure to be enthralling.

At the Close, Thursday, December 5, 2024:
Dow: 44,765.71, -248.33 (-0.55%)
NASDAQ: 19,700.72, -34.39 (-0.17%)
S&P 500: 6,075.11, -11.38 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 20,157.44, -31.16 (-0.15%)

Bitcoin Vaults Over $100,000; Dow, S&P, NASDAQ Close at Record Highs; Bubble Economy Built by Welfare, Pensions, Social Security, and Credit Cards

OK, this is a bubble.

There's no need to belabor the point. Everything about the stock markets says, "bubble." Not that anybody cares; we're all going to be rich because the U.S. economy - um, sorry, the stock market and the economy are two different things - is humming right along.

The U.S. economy is built on welfare payments, pension account payouts, Social Security benefits and other government handouts and entitlements to rich and poor alike. Money - actually currency - spent using credit cards accounts for another huge chunk of GDP, along with those never-ending monthly payments to CapitalOne, Bank of America, Visa, Mastercard, and other credit purveyors.

All of this spending makes up U.S. GDP, which is a horrible measure of the health of an economy because it includes all manner of expenditures by government which actually doesn't produce much of anything other than more debt.

In any case, the U.S. debt to GDP calculation shows the ratio going over 100% in 2020 (plandemic), hitting 124% that year and remaining above 100% since. In other words, Total federal debt exceeds annual GDP, generally understood by economists to be a sign of an ailing economy (not one that's running on all cylinders, stocks making record highs).

Not convinced? How about this:

In 2024, an average of almost 68 million Americans per month will receive a Social Security benefit, totaling about $1.5 trillion in benefits paid during the year.

That's a direct quote from the Social Security Administration in their fact sheet [PDF].

Still not convinced?

In fiscal year 2023, Total Welfare Expenditures by the federal government were $1.1 Trillion, including Medicaid payments, accounting for 18% of federal outlays. Without Medicaid, the total was $485 billion, with the single largest program, SNAP (food stamps), accounting for $135 billion, up from $64 billion just five years earlier (fiscal year 2019). Hmmm, no wonder poor people are so fat.

Credit card spending (transactions for goods and services) was just short of $5 trillion in 2022. Ten years prior, 2012, the toal was just above $2 trillion. Credit card spending has more than doubled in just the last 10 years. If the economy is doing so well, why is everybody borrowing to pay for things?

Without welfare and pension benefits and items bought with credit cards, what would Walmart's profits look like? Apple's? How many new iPhones would have been purchased? Home Depot?

It's not worth debating. The U.S. economy is a mirage.

Bitcoin, the invisible currency of which less than two percent of wallet addresses hold more than 90% of all total BTC currently in circulation, has gone ballistic, up more than $4,000 in the last 24 hours (4.11%) and up 132.58% year-to-date. Somebody's getting rich. Probably not you.

Bitcoin's up. Stocks are up. Gold and silver had their runs earlier in the year. Since the election (November 5) they're both down nearly three percent. Why? Because this is a bubble economy.

It's like being a bartender at a house of pleasure. Enjoy it while it lasts.

At the Close, Wednesday, December 4, 2024:
Dow: 45,014.04, +308.51 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ: 19,735.12, +254.21 (+1.30%)
S&P 500: 6,086.49, +36.61 (+0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 20,188.60, +2.79 (+0.01%)

How High is Up? Stocks at Record Levels and Going Higher; Wells Fargo Says S&P Will Hit 7,007 in 2025

It's net even Christmas yet, but investors are gifting themselves to all-time highs on the major indices.

On Tuesday, the NASDAQ and S&P both closed at record highs, the Dow took a breather, but stock market analysts are predicting 2025 to be another banner year. Both Deutsche Bank and Yardeni Research have called for the S&P 500 to finish 2025 at 7,000, but the braintrust over at Wells Fargo (yep, those people famous for opening fake bank accounts), led by Christopher Harvey and his team, issued a 2025 year-end target of 7,007, marking his territory as the highest prediction to date. In pissing contest terms, Harvey is top dog.

Time will tell, but there's little doubt that the ongoing stock bubble players don't seem to notice any impediment against soaring into the stratosphere. Who knew making money could be so easy?

For those keeping score, the Shiller PE finished yesterday at the second-highest level ever, 38.61, just ahead of the October 2021 level of 38.58, now chasing the record from November 1999, 44.19.

Color us skeptical.

It used to be common knowledge that when everybody is bullish, it's a good time to be bearish. On that note, exactly why is Warren Buffett hoarding cash? His Berkshire Hathaway holding company is sitting on a dollar stack of $325 billion, enough to buy outright 476 individual companies in the S&P 500. Maybe he's waiting for prices to fall so he can buy them all, except, probably the Magnificent 7 tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, et.al.

Has the old man lost his touch? Is he living in the past, when prudence was virtuous and speculation was an art perfected only by the best and brightest, not everyday momentum traders or yield-chasers suffering from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)?

Well, it's the holiday season, after all, so why throw cold water on the Christmas parade? After all, in a little more than a month, Joe Biden and all the lefties will begin to fade into the woodwork, Donald Trump will lead the grand MAGA movement, everybody will benefit, and America will re-emerge as the greatest place on earth.

Actually, there is some believability to that argument and over here at Money Daily we're all for it.

It just sounds too good to be true, if only because stocks are already well extended. Nobody ever suggested, “buy high, sell higher.”

Maybe Moe, Larry and Curly can provide some clues.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 3, 2024:
Dow: 44,705.53, -76.47 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: 19,480.91, +76.96 (+0.40%)
S&P 500: 6,049.88, +2.73 (+0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 20,185.81, -27.41 (-0.14%)

What's the Big Deal About BRICS-Pay and Trump Tariffs? Some Background on De-Dollarization and Currency Debasement

Loads of ink and countless electronic bytes of data were spent Monday deciphering the impact of President-Elect Trump's post on his social media platform, TruthSocial.

"We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy."

Yahoo! Finance reports the proximate cause for Trump's post is the formation of a payment system known as BRICS Pay, according to Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum.

BRICS Pay is a new attempt by the BRICS group of countries to use digital payment and QR code technology to provide an alternative to dollar-dominated networks — specifically the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), which Russia was barred from upon its invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022.

Since then, war has raged, NATO nations having supplied Ukraine with all manner of weaponry, to little avail. Russia continues to take territory and advance through the country. The US, UK, and EU have applied various sanctions to Russia and other countries, also with little effect. Russia's economy, in fact, is growing at a faster rate than most Western nations, especially European ones, France, Italy, and Germany, which are falling or have already entered into recession.

The BRICS-pay website is indeed registered in Russia, but is likely more for demonstration purposes and trolling of U.S. interests. What concerns Trump, and, more importantly, the Federal Reserve, is that BRICS nations have been bypassing use of the U.S. dollar in international trade and transactions, using local, national currencies for settlement. Also, use of the Chinese yuan has been advanced, as has gold, as a settlement mechanism.

At the last two most recent BRICS summits, in Kazan, Russia this year and South Africa in 2023, there were more than a few discussions about the establishment of a BRICS currency, ostensibly to compete with the dollar and euro in international trade, though nothing concrete has been established. The discussions among finance ministers of BRICS nations and affiliates continue and there have been tests done using blockchain technology, most specifically the recent MBridge tests that were suddenly halted and de-platformed by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), reported by Vince Lanci of GoldFix in late October.

Whatever Trump, in association with the Federal Reserve, plans to do to counter the ultimate establishment of competing reserve currencies in the wider world and especially in the so-called, "Global South", those efforts are likely to be in vain unless the U.S. reverses course on its continuing hectoring of countries which refuse to be bullied by U.S. hegemony and insistence on use of the dollar in trade settlement.

The dollar has lost more than 97% of its purchasing power since inception of the Federal Reserve and is unlikely to change direction. The vaunted U.S. dollar is a dying currency, just as others, the yen, euro, franc, and pound, which are backed by nothing more than faith. Eventually, a shift will be made to better, more stable forms of payment that are not debt-based, likely to be backed by gold, silver and/or other commodities.

Since the U.S. weaponization of the dollar, the world has moved away, an oft-heard phrase by countries trading with the United States is "getting nothing for something." Abandonment of the U.S. dollar as a means of exchange follows along with its being a poor, negligible store of value.

An article on Sputnik teases, Trump's Threat of 100% Tariffs Targeting BRICS Would Blow Up in America's Face.

Americans have reason to be concerned. After the most recent bout of inflation - caused by the Fed's relentless currency creation out of thin air - prices for even everyday items have risen to levels that are unobtainable for average citizens. Losing reserve currency status, which is well underway, would render the dollar completely worthless. Change is necessary.

At the Close, Monday, December 2, 2024:
Dow: 44,782.00, -128.65 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 19,403.95, +185.78 (+0.97%)
S&P 500: 6,047.15, +14.77 (+0.24%)
NYSE: 20,213.22, -58.82 (-0.29%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Rally Higher; Oil Continues Slump; Gas Prices Under $3.00 in Majority of U.S. States; Shiller PE: 38.54

Market participants didn't let the short week deter them from continuing to snatch up stocks, especially those on the Dow, which outpaced the S&P and NASDAQ for the week, with the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and Dow Industrials closing out November at record highs. The NASDAQ closed just 80 points below its own record closing price (19,298.76, November 11, 2024).

Stocks

Adding Nvidia (NVDA) to the Dow Jones Industrials may be considered market rigging or just plain genius, as the chip-maker supplanted flagging Intel (INTC) in the index, the real money this week was made on the other stock that was swapped in on November 8, Sherwin-Williams (SHW), which replaced chemical giant Dow, and was among the week's leaders among Dow components, up two-and-a-half percent while Nvidia shed more than two percent.

The Dow's move was helped along by Amazon (AMZN), up five percent, and by Boeing (BA), which was up nearly two percent on Friday's short session and up more than four percent on the week.

On a month-by-month basis, November was the best of 2024 for the Dow and S&P 500. It looks like a safe bet that the S&P 500 can finish the year up more than 20 percent, which would be the first time since 1998-99 that the index rose 20% or more in consecutive years.

With just a month left for trading in 2024, investors have been rewarded for their persistence overall. Year-to-date, all the major indices are sporting very healthy gains:

NASDAQ	19,218.17	+4,452.23	+30.15%
S&P 500	6,032.38	+1,289.55	+27.19%
NYSE Composite	20,272.04	+3,430.42	+20.37%
Dow Industrials	44,910.65	+7,195.61	+19.08%

There are just 21 trading days remaining to the year. With Christmas Day falling on a Wednesday, the last full week will be split down the middle. Market-moving events include November Non-Farm Payroll data this Friday (December 6), and the FOMC meeting which concludes Wednesday, December 18.

Barring any unforeseen disruptions, 2024 will go down as one of the better years of the 21st century for stock performance, right up there with 2003, 2009, 2013, 2019, and 2021, each of which saw the S&P 500 rise by more than 25%.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/25/2024	4.89	4.79	4.73	4.68	4.51	4.29
11/01/2024	4.75	4.74	4.61	4.53	4.42	4.28
11/08/2024	4.70	4.69	4.63	4.53	4.42	4.32
11/15/2024	4.70	4.67	4.60	4.52	4.44	4.34
11/22/2024	4.72	4.67	4.63	4.53	4.46	4.42
11/29/2024	4.76	4.69	4.58	4.52	4.42	4.30

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/25/2024	4.11	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.25	4.58	4.51
11/01/2024	4.21	4.18	4.22	4.30	4.37	4.68	4.57
11/08/2024	4.26	4.18	4.20	4.25	4.30	4.58	4.47
11/15/2024	4.31	4.27	4.30	4.36	4.43	4.70	4.60
11/22/2024	4.37	4.32	4.30	4.35	4.41	4.67	4.60
11/29/2024	4.13	4.10	4.05	4.10	4.18	4.45	4.36

There was huge movement in longer-dated maturities this week, a signal that the market believes the Fed will not pause in December or thereafter, but will continue to cut the federal funds target rate until it falls below all rates on the yield curve and remains higher than inflation, as measured by annualized CPI, the latest, 2.6%.

This implies an ultimate yield on the overnight federal funds of 3.25% to 3.50%, possibly 3.00% to 3.25%, but likely not any lower than that, as the Fed wishes to avoid another damaging bout of inflation, which they believe to have somewhat under control.

Currently holding at 4.50-4.75%, the market is anticipating 0.25% cuts at upcoming FOMC meetings, December 17-18, January 28-29, March 18-19, May 6-7, and June 17-18. Five cuts, amounting to 1.25%, gets the target rate down to 3.25-3.50%, at which point they would hold, likely for a long time unless some extraneous event upsets the apple cart.

Confident that the fiscal side of the equation at the Treasury Department will exhibit more conservative policies than what has been maintained over the Biden-Yellen years, the Fed can be fairly certain that government spending will be massively curtailed if President Trump and his able henchmen at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, gets his way.

The promise of reduced government spending and borrowing to finance deficits should open up lending markets to the private side. The other benefit of lower rates would be the effect on interest payments by the federal government, which, at over $1 trillion annually, is entirely unsustainable and threatens to bankrupt the nation.

Speculators may see the Fed cutting even deeper, especially in the case of general disinflation or outright deflation, which would be even more stimulative and cut government interest payments even further.

From what's happened in just the last month, with notes and bonds getting to oversold positions before large buyers stepped in this week, continued cuts appears to be the plan being executed. Lest people forget, there's a new sheriff in town, due to put on the badge come January 20, 2025, and his deputies are armed and looking to round up suspects and criminals.

The 2s-10s spread remains in normalized (dis-inverted) territory at +5, and, while full spectrum, 30days-30years, took a big step backwards from -12 to -40, that condition is likely to be temporary if the Fed cuts in December and beyond. The flattening - prior to steepening - of the yield curve continues apace.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil took it on the nose again this week, closing at $68.15 on Friday, down sharply from $71.81 last Friday. Oil's price reflects the hastily-called Israeli cease fire in the Middle East and the lack of any real nuclear threat coming out of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Mostly, it's been saber-rattling by the NATO crowd and stoicism by Putin and Russia.

Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.03 a gallon, down another penny from the prior week.

California continues to be the price leader, at $4.37 a gallon, down four cents from the prior week.

Pennsylvania prices continue to head lower, at $3.22, with the Keystone State holding the high price in the Northeast, though it is at or near the lowest level in three years. New York was static, at $3.13. Connecticut ($3.07) and Massachusetts ($3.02) were slightly higher, while Maryland slipped another six cents to $3.06 per gallon, the second straight weekly decline of six cents. Prices in the Midwest continue to wane, though Illinois was up a nickel ($3.20).

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.39) continue to be by far the lowest in the nation, down another seven cents on the week. Following are Texas ($2.52), down nine cents, Mississippi ($2.55), Arkansas ($2.58), Louisiana ($2.61), and Tennessee ($2.68). Florida ($3.10) remains the outlier, with all other Southeastern states well below $3.00, including Georgia ($2.88) and North Carolina ($2.83).

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in some locations in at least 35 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now spreading west, with Montana, Utah and Wyoming joining the sub-$3.00 party and a few Northeast states, Delaware the latest to drop below $3.00.

Western states are still the highest overall. Arizona ($3.19) steadied on the week, with Oregon at $3.51, Nevada at $3.64, and Washington at $3.98, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.97) and Idaho ($3.01) have both come down to levels seen 12 months ago.

Bitcoin

This week: $97,184.05
Last week: $97,283.64
2 weeks ago: $90,205.13
6 months ago: $67,737.81
One year ago: $39,463.38
Five years ago: $7,521.31

Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up a stunning 120% year-to-date and more than 40% since the November 5 U.S. elections, topping out at $98,367 this week.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 85.97; last week: 86.13

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/1: $2,745.90
Gold price 11/8: $2,691.70
Gold price 11/15: $2,567.40
Gold price 11/22: $2,743.20
Gold price 11/29: $2,673.90

Silver price 11/1: $32.58
Silver price 11/8: $31.42
Silver price 11/15: $30.33
Silver price 11/22: $31.85
Silver price 11/29: $31.10

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	37.00	45.00	40.59	40.00
1 oz silver bar:	33.26	47.91	40.67	40.50
1 oz gold coin:	2,742.87	2,844.21	2,801.07	2,816.94
1 oz gold bar:	2,750.70	2,842.06	2,770.03	2,760.64

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was up nearly a dollar this week, to $40.44, an increase of 94 cents over the November 22 price of $39.50 per troy ounce.

Not much to comment upon concerning gold and silver prices. While the COMEX and LBMA are up to their usual tricks and the past few weeks have seen prices retreat and now level off, retail buyers seem more than content to pay high premia for finished goods. Chinese New Year and wedding season in India are likely to boost demand. Central banks may have slowed their purchasing slightly, though that appears to be only a temporary condition.

WEEKEND WRAP

There are changes afoot. With the political situation remaining up in the air until Trump's inauguration, there are likely to be any number of fits and starts in verious sectors and asset classes. With certain funds having already closed their books for 2024, and, with year-end squaring up proceeding, stocks are just as likely to waver as to move higher.

The Shiller PE ratio stands at 38.54, just shy of the second-highest ever, 38.58, from October 2021.

At the Close, Friday, November 29, 2024:
Dow: 44,910.65, +188.59 (+0.42%)
NASDAQ: 19,218.17, +157.69 (+0.83%)
S&P 500: 6,032.38, +33.64 (+0.56%)
NYSE Composite: 20,272.04, +62.22 (+0.31%)

For the Week:
Dow: +614.14 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ: +214.52 (+1.13%)
S&P 500: +63.04 (+1.06%)
NYSE Composite: +148.59 (+0.74%)
Dow Transports: _251.76 (+1.45%)

Dow Looking at Best Monthly Performance of 2024 as November Trading Closes Out on Black Friday

Heading into Black Friday's short session (markets close at 1:00 pm ET), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on track for its best monthly performance of the year, up 7.08% since October 31, rising from 41,763.46 to Wednesday's close at 44,722.06.

Dow stocks, widely believed to be among the best companies in America, have returned more than 18% this year, but are still playing catch-up against the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which are up 26.48% and 29.08%, respectively.

Many of the 30 companies that make up the Dow return dividends, though yields are generally well below the 10-year note, which has fluctuated between 3.63% and 4.70%, and has been heading lower through November, currently yielding 4.25%. For example, Goldman Sachs (GS) dividend yield is 1.98%; McDonald's (MCD), 2.40%; IBM (IBM), 2.94%, and Home Depot, 2.11%. American Express (AXP), which is up more than 60% this year, carries a dividend of $2.80, delivering a paltry 0.92% yield.

So, if investors aren't looking for high dividend yield, what the current run-up in Dow stocks suggests is that investors are seeking to reduce risk to some degree, switching out holdings of high-flying tech stocks to more steady performers on the Dow, taking outsized profits before year-end.

The so-called "flight to quality" may indicate some of the bigger funds are expecting a downturn in stocks subject to speculation that may have gotten ahead of themselves. Price/earnings ratios on Dow stocks are generally lower than those of companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG), or Tesla (TSLA).

This late-stage trend bears watching into 2025 and the many changes in economic structure and government policies that are expected.

As the markets await the opening bell for the final trading day of the month, futures are pointing to a somewhat moderate opening, with S&P and NASDAQ futures nearly flat and Dow futures up 58 points at 9:00 am ET.

With U.S. markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, gold and silver were priced higher on the COMEX when it reopened in the evening, sending gold to highs of $2,685 and silver as high as $31.34.

WTI crude continues to test resistance around $70, hitting a low of $68.24 early Friday morning.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 27, 2024:
Dow: 44,722.06, -138.25 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 19,060.48, -115.10 (-0.60%)
S&P 500: 5,998.74, -22.89 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 20,209.82, -9.64 (-0.05%)

Thin Trade Expected Prior to Thanksgiving; GDP Steady at 2.8%; Dell, Workday, HP Lower After Earnings; Gold, Silver Rebound

Get today's complete article and access years of daily commentary at Downtown Magazine's Money Daily

Trading is expected to be thin on Thanksgiving get-away day, as most people are more interested with travel plans and holiday festivities than scrounging for gelt in the stock market.

The government released its second estimate of third quarter GDP as unchanged, the US economy growing at an annualized rate of 2.8%.

At 10:00 am ET, the Fed's BFF inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for October is due out. Economists expect annual "core" PCE - which excludes food and energy - to have clocked in at 2.8% in October, up from 2.7% in September. The indicator will have a strong impact on whether the Fed decides to cut interest rates again in December when the FOMC meets on the 17th and 18th.

Following the release of Fed minutes Tuesday afternoon, which suggested some members of the committee were considering slowing the rate of cuts, possibly pausing in December, a hotter-than-expected PCE would lean towards betting against a rate cut in December and possibly even into January's meeting.

The market is unsure how Trump's policies will affect the economy, so there's some reluctance to go "all in" on trades though the past few weeks have seen more investor euphoria than reticence.

A few more companies revealed third quarter earnings after Tuesday's close, these among the last before fourth quarter results in January.

Shares of Dell (DELL) tumbled 12 percent after announcing results that didn't match expectations, the company missing estimates on total revenue but beating estimates of $2.06 EPS, reporting $2.15. Q4 revenue projection of $24-$25 billion fell short of analysts' $25.57 billion estimate, based on slowing PV sales.

Rival computer maker, HP Inc. (HPQ) was also sent lower after hitting EPS and revenue targets, but citing tariffs as a headwind to future profits. Shares were down seven percent pre-market.

Autodesk (ADSK) narrowly beat estimates for the quarter but investors chose to take the money and run, sending shares down eight percent prior to the opening bell. Autodesk was up more than 35% year-to-date prior to the announcement.

Workday (WDAY) was another tech wreck, with shares sliding 12 percent after beating top and bottom line but issuing weak forward guidance.

Crowdstrike (CRWD) went counter to the morning's trend, beating on revenue ($1.01 billion) and EPS of 3 cents, both better than year-ago results. The stock is down slightly, less then two percent.

Retailers Nordstrom (JWN) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) both beat earnings estimates. Nordstrom was seen lower by about two percent, but investors were cheering on Urban Outfitters, which reported record sales and an upgrade from Citi. The stock was up nearly 15% in pre-market trading.

Gold and silver are continuing to rebound after being dragged lower on Monday.

Happy Thanksgiving!

At the Close, Tuesday, November 26, 2024:
Dow: 44,860.31, +123.74 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,175.58, +120.74 (+0.63%)
S&P 500: 6,021.63, +34.26 (+0.57%)
NYSE Composite: 20,219.45, -0.90 (-0.00%)

FOMO Returns, Just in Time for the Holidays; Stocks Ramp, Oil, Gold, Silver, Crypto Lower

Get today's complete article and access years of daily commentary at Downtown Magazine's Money Daily

Having gained more than 2500 points since November 5, it's apparent that investors are queueing up to buy dividend-yielding stocks on the Dow Jones Industrial Average in anticipation of lower interest rates on treasuries and other fixed-income products.

The Dow has out-performed the S&P, NYSE Composite, and NASDAQ, gaining nearly six percent over the period. The S&P has added 3.51%, NASDAQ, 3.32%, and the Composite, 3.87%.

Most of the money moving into stocks is coming from fund managers, as inflows have been outstanding since the election of Donald J. Trump as president. Wall Street has fond memories of Trump's policy framework from his first term, from 2017-2020, discounting the pandemic disruptions. Monday's gains were also largely tied to Trump's choice of Scott Bessent as the nominee for Treasury Secretary. He's a seasoned Wall Street professional with plenty of solid connections in the business and financial communities.

Throwing some shade on the euphoric mood is the geo-political situation. With the Biden administration still in charge of policy for the time being, their actions of late - especially green-lighting Ukraine to employ long-range missiles against Russia - have left many with the impression that they're escalating the situation rather than calming it, as Trump has promised to do.

Beyond the end-of-the-world theatrics, however, the stock market rally is now more than 13 months long, with indications that a year-end rally is a likely event.

Companies reporting prior to the open on Tuesday are offering a mixed bag, sending Dow futures lower and NASDAQ futures higher.

Shares of Burlington (BURL) are down two percent as the company's same-store sales projections failed to materialize.

Macy's (M) was supposed to report this morning, but has delayed their announcement pending an investigation of an employee hiding more than a suspected $150 in expenses over a series of quarters.

Dick's Sports Goods (DKS) reported an exceptional third quarter, citing back-to-school sales above expectations. Revenue for the quarter was $3.06 billion, beating analyst estimates of $3.03 billion. Adjusted EPS of $2.75 topped estimates for $2.69. Shares are soaring, up nearly 10 percent in pre-market trading.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) had a solid quarter, with sales up 14.4% year on year to $1.21 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.50 topped analyst estimates of $2.35.

On the downside, Kohl's (KSS) saw same-store sales disappoint, with net sales down 8.8% year-over-year to $3.507 billion, missing the consensus of $3.638 billion. Comparable sales for the quarter decreased 9.3%. Earnings per share w=of 20 cents was far below estimates for 28 cents. The stock is down nearly 20% prior to the opening bell.

Best Buy (BBY) reported earnings of $273 million, or $1.26 per share, for the quarter ended Nov. 2, a slight improvement from $263 million and $1.21 per share in the year-ago period. Sales fell to $9.45 billion from $9.76 billion in the year-ago quarter. EPS missed expectations for $1.30 per share. The stock is down marginally prior to the open.

After the close, Dell (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Nordstrom (JWN), and Urban Outfitters (URBN) release quarterly results.

On Monday, precious metals were once again hit with profit-taking, sending gold lower by more than $100. After closing at $2,743 per ounce on Friday, COMEX traders sent gold down to as low as $2,634 when trading opened Tuesday morning in the Pacific region after a mammoth drop during the open session in the U.S.

Silver was also sent lower, from $31.85 to $30.55. Both metals are recovering this morning, with gold at $2,656 and silver at $31.00.

Crude oil also took a beating on Monday, with WTI hitting a low of $68.64. Oil continues to suffer around $70/barrel. Between the supply glut and Trump's expectations for more drilling, price declines await.

Bitcoin, which recently ran up above $99,000, was hammered down on Monday with losses added overnight. The crypto king hit $91,583 this morning.

The message is becoming quite clear. Buy stocks. Sell everything else.

At the Close, Monday, November 25, 2024:
Dow:44,736.57, +440.06 (+0.99%)
NASDAQ: 19,054.84, +51.19 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 5,987.37, +18.03 (+0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 20,220.36, +96.91 (+0.48%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks, Gold, Silver, Oil Power Ahead; Thanksgiving Week Looking Bullish; Market to Measure Black Friday, Rate Cut Projections

Get today's complete article and access years of daily commentary at Downtown Magazine's Money Daily

Hurtling headlong into the holidays, stocks staged a hard rally that lifted all indices. The most obvious signal that rigging and inside baseball are still alive and well on Wall Street came from the Dow Jones Industrials, which managed to add 1000 points over the last three days of the week, reaching a new all-time closing high in the process.

Not as widely mentioned, the NYSE Composite Index also galloped ahead to a fresh record close, finishing at 20,123.45 on Friday. The small and mid-cap exchange is up a solid 19.59% for the year.

Precious metals rebounded with gusto, bitcoin continued to soar toward $100,000, and even oil got some bids. Investing in just about anything paid off pretty well this week and overall year-to-date.

As election excitement faded back toward the usual bickering, partisan squabbling, and in-fighting that characterizes the U.S. political system, investors seemed to sense that the status quo wouldn't be easily overwhelmed by the upstart Trump team members. Matt Gaetz, Trump's in-your-face pick for Attorney General only had to spend one day meeting with unsupportive Senators to withdraw his name from the nomination. Other nominees remained ready to testify and fight the good fight.

Quietly, late Friday, Trump's team put up Scott Bessent as the nominee for Treasury Secretary, a choice that will find friendly supporters on capitol hill.

Bessent, 62, is the founder of hedge fund Key Square Capital Management and a former professor at Yale University. Openly gay, Bessent had connections to Soros Fund Management at various times since 1991. While those credentials are sure to be applauded by Democrats, many true Trumpsters did not warm well to the choice. As head of one of the most impactful departments in Washington, Bessent's selection appears almost an appeasement to the left. None dare criticize too harshly a member of the alternative, especially one with approval from top Wall Street managers, which Bessent has apparently won over. The nominee will sail through the advise and consent process with flying colors.

On the bright side, ceding the position of the nation's financial overseer to a person who's neither an alumnus of Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve is a step in the right direction. Bessent has expressed favorable views toward deregulation, deficits, government downsizing, and mass deportation of illegal aliens as preferable to the costs of increased crime and expense in allowing them safe harbor.

A number of people in Trump's camp, including billionaire Elon Musk, preferred Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick to head Treasury. Lutnick, who is co-chair of the Trump transition team, has been chosen for Commerce Secretary, a position of vital importance that will be tasked with implementing Trump's tax ad tariff agenda.

The choices for Treasury and Commerce appear to strike a reasoned balance for U.S. economic interests.

Stocks

The Shiller PE ratio remains near the third highest all-time level, reading 38.07 at the week's end. Anticipating a holiday upswing and a Santa rally, markets seem to see no impediments to bubbling up even higher. Bullish sentiment is extremely high and markets overbought, though that does not appear to matter.

Tuesday will be the most impactful day for earnings, with retail and tech stragglers reporting.

In the morning, prior to the opening bell, are Burlington (BURL), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS), Macy's (M), Best Buy (BBY), and Analog Devices (ADI). After the close, Dell (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Nordstrom (JWN), and Urban Outfitters (URBN) release quarterly results.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/18/2024	4.92	4.82	4.73	4.65	4.45	4.19
10/25/2024	4.89	4.79	4.73	4.68	4.51	4.29
11/01/2024	4.75	4.74	4.61	4.53	4.42	4.28
11/08/2024	4.70	4.69	4.63	4.53	4.42	4.32
11/15/2024	4.70	4.67	4.60	4.52	4.44	4.34
11/22/2024	4.72	4.67	4.63	4.53	4.46	4.42

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/18/2024	3.95	3.86	3.88	3.97	4.08	4.44	4.38
10/25/2024	4.11	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.25	4.58	4.51
11/01/2024	4.21	4.18	4.22	4.30	4.37	4.68	4.57
11/08/2024	4.26	4.18	4.20	4.25	4.30	4.58	4.47
11/15/2024	4.31	4.27	4.30	4.36	4.43	4.70	4.60
11/22/2024	4.37	4.32	4.30	4.35	4.41	4.67	4.60

Treasuries were barely moved over the course of the week and there doesn't appear to be any significant catalyst one way or the other. Flat will be the structure until the Fed decides its next policy move on December 17-18, the last FOMC meeting of 2024.

Currently, opinions are split over another 25 basis point drop in the federal funds rate or none at all at the upcoming meeting, though it's almost too obvious to point out that a cut of 0.25% on the very shortest end would accomplish normalization and upsloping across the yield curve, a likely desire of the Fed and Chairman Powell prior to President Trump's inauguration.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices broke its downward momentum, closing at $71.81 on Friday, up sharply from $66.88 at last week's New York close, a powerful move of more than seven percent. Oil traders have ceased fretting over the Middle East, which seems to be somewhat subdued, for now, and instead focused on escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as the U.S. green-lighted Ukraine's use of long-range missile strikes into Russia.

ATACMs and Storm Shadow missiles aiming at targets in Russia's Bryansk and Kursk regions fell short of achieving their goals according to Russian military sources and President Putin himself.

Russia's response to the attacks was to strike a military-industrial complex near Dnipro using a new intermediate-range ballistic missile called "Oreshnik", which means hazel tree in Russia, along with stern warnings to NATO countries from Putin and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Around the attacks and subsequent Russian retaliation hysterical Western media were warning about World War III and the ultimate use of nuclear weapons. Since there have been no cities incinerated and turned to ashes so far, the doomsday clock moving ever closer to midnight is not something most people are very concerned about, and with good reason. Any nuclear exchange would likely result in enormous, horrifying damage and loss of life and is not something sane people would even consider. Of course, for the time being, the U.S. and Europe are being led by individuals who may come up a bit short on the sanity test, so, the waiting-out time until January 20 of next year, at least, may remain in a somewhat precarious condition.

That increases the likelihood of a near-term rise in oil prices, though by how much remains to be seen. There's still the supply-demand issue of too much oil production and slowing demand, from both a seasonal and cyclical perspective. If nuclear options are eventually employed, the price of home heating fuel or petrol for automotive use would be among the least of people's worries. Thus, gains in WTI and Brent crude the past week are probably little more than knee-jerk responses to more military posturing by NATO and Russia.

Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.04 a gallon, down a penny from the prior week.

California continues to be the price leader, at $4.41 a gallon, down marginally from the prior week.

Pennsylvania prices continue to head lower, at $3.24, with the Keystone State holding the high price in the Northeast, approaching the lowest level in three years. New York was slightly higher, at $3.13. Connecticut ($3.05) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were slightly higher, but Maryland slipped six cents to $3.12 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to decline, with Illinois continuing lower ($3.15).

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.46) continue to be by far the lowest in the nation, quite a bit lower than the #2 spot, held by Mississippi, at $2.59. Following are Texas ($2.61), Arkansas ($2.62), Louisiana ($2.64), and Nebraska ($2.68). Florida ($3.03) remains the Southern outsider, with all Southeastern states well below $3.00, including Georgia ($2.92) and North Carolina ($2.86).

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 29 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now spreading west, with Montana and Wyoming joining the sub-$3.00 party.

Western states are still the highest overall. Arizona ($3.20) was up five cents on the week, with Oregon at $3.55, Nevada at $3.67, and Washington at $3.95, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.04) and Idaho ($3.09) were both lower on the week, remaining well below summer prices and apparently offering gas under $3.00 in some locales.

Bitcoin

This week: $97,283.64
Last week: $90,205.13
2 weeks ago: $79,690.52
6 months ago: $67,851.91
One year ago: $37,807.90
Five years ago: $7,333.47

Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up a stunning 120% year-to-date and more than 40% since the November 5 U.S. elections, edging ever-so-close to $100,000, topping out at $99,436 this week.

A move beyond $100,000 could spur another spurt forward. Trump's selection of Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department and the announcement this week that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler would retire from the position upon Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025 are positive developments for the crypto universe.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.13; last week: 84.65

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/25: $2,754.60
Gold price 11/1: $2,745.90
Gold price 11/8: $2,691.70
Gold price 11/15: $2,567.40
Gold price 11/22: $2,743.20

Silver price 10/25: $33.88
Silver price 11/1: $32.58
Silver price 11/8: $31.42
Silver price 11/15: $30.33
Silver price 11/22: $31.85

After suffering through two weeks of election euphoria headlined by a stronger dollar, precious metals made a comeback over the past week, with gold prices up more than four percent while silver lagged, but still moved forward, posting a gain of two percent.

In dollar terms, gold was up $176, silver ahead by $1.52.

Silver remains narrowly ahead of gold year-to-date, 32.69% to 32.02%. Silver's slowness to recover moved the gold:silver ratio up to 86.13, the highest in five weeks, though still not in a "sell gold, buy silver" condition.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	30.00	45.00	39.09	38.50
1 oz silver bar:	37.00	48.68	40.82	39.60
1 oz gold coin:	2,815.20	2,929.58	2,891.55	2,903.26
1 oz gold bar:	2,817.20	2,888.95	2,837.75	2,829.21

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained ground this week, to $39.50, an improvement of $1.48 over the November 17 price of $38.02 per troy ounce.

Premia on silver and gold continue to reflect sufficient demand. Buyers seem to be unconcerned about the recent pullback. India's festival season and the November-March wedding season, in addition to Western holidays, followed by Chinese New Year bodes well for gold near term. Silver continues to be more suppressed on the Comex. Viewed more as an industrial metal than for investment purposes, the influence of large foreign buyers, especially India and China, has to factor into price calculations, though silver will ultimately align with gold. albeit at a gold:silver ratio that is, by historical standards, an extreme aberration.

WEEKEND WRAP

A truncated holiday week will be punctuated by U.S. market closure on Thursday (Thanksgiving) and a short session on Black Friday. Indications are bullish for stocks and commodities and stable for fixed income.

At the Close, Friday, November 22, 2024:
Dow: 44,296.51, +426.16 (+0.97%)
NASDAQ: 19,003.65, +31.23 (+0.16%)
S&P 500: 5,969.34, +20.63 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 20,123.45, +155.15 (+0.78%)

For the Week: Dow: +851.52 (+1.96%)
NASDAQ: +323.53 (+1.73%)
S&P 500: +98.72 (+1.68%)
NYSE Composite: +477.68 (+2.43%)
Dow Transports: +139.00 (+0.81%)

Dow Posts Big Gains, Stocks Look for Positive End to Solid Week; Gold, Silver Higher; WTI Crude Stuck Near $70

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While the NASDAQ languished after less-than-spectacular forward guidance from Nvidia (NVDA) - which is now the poster child for the term "priced to perfection" - Dow Industrials took up market slack and powered ahead, ending the day just 427 points (less than one percent) from the all-time closing high of 44,293.13 (November 11, 2024), powered by gains in IBM (IBM) and Salesforce (CRM).

The day's gains on the Dow turned the week completely around for the index of 30 blue chip stocks. After Wednesday's close, the Dow was down around 35 points. Thursday's effort changed that small loss into a large gain.

That helped it catch up to the NASDAQ, which is ahead by 292 points on the week, heading into Friday. The S&P also shrugged off the losses from last week and has posted a positive number every day this week, up 78 points through Thursday's closing bell.

A pair of mid-tier retailers posted third quarter results after the close on Thursday, both companies reporting a strong quarter and superior guidance heading into the holiday shopping season.

The Gap (GAP), with a major online presence accounting for 40% of all sales, and more than 3,600 stores in 40 countries, showed net income of $274 million, translating into diluted earnings per share of 0.72. Those numbers compared favorably with year-ago figures of net income of $218 million and EPS of 0.59.

President and CEO, Richard Dickson exuded confidence, saying, "holiday is off to a strong start and we remain focused on executing with excellence in the fourth quarter. Our performance year-to-date gives us the confidence to raise our full year outlook for sales, gross margin and operating income growth."

Shares of The Gap were up nearly seven percent on Thursday and are indicated up another 17% heading into the Friday cash session. The stock, which has a very low beta, a PE ratio hovering around 10, and a 52-reek range from 18.34 to 30.59, closed Thursday at 22.04.

Shares of Ross Stores (ROST) were also being favored after the company posted net earnings of $489 million and EPS of $1.48, raising its full-year outlook to $6.10 to $6.17 per share. The stock was up more than 2.5% on Thursday and is tacking on another seven percent prior to Friday's opening bell.

Year ago returns were EPS of 1.33 on net of $447 million.

The mood wasn't quite so cheery over at Intuit (INTU), which topped estimates for the quarter, but issued lowered guidance, with some trepidation over fears of the incoming Trump administration offering a free federal government tax reporting app or simplifying the tax code to a point at which Intuit's software would be unnecessary. The company reported earning of 2.50 per share, ahead of estimates for 2.36.

Shares are down nearly three percent an hour prior to the opening bell. Intuit is a prime example of just how overpriced tech stocks have become. Yahoo Finance shows a PE ratio of 66 on this 30-year old company. Normally, such high PE ratios are reserved for startups expected to grow at exponential levels, but these days, mature companies like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are sporting PE ratios in the 30s and higher.

Elsewhere, gold continues to rally steadily following a post-election dive, hitting $2,712 overnight. Silver, which has lagged its more expensive cousin, seems to be perking up, continuing to trend close to $32 per ounce.

The rally in WTI crude oil was short-lived, topping out at $70.65 per barrel on Thursday, but slipping back below $70 Friday morning.

Futures are pointing to an even open, with equities close to the UNCH line.

At the Close, Thursday, November 21, 2024:
Dow: 43,870.35, +461.88 (+1.06%)
NASDAQ: 18,972.42, +6.28 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 5,948.71, +31.60 (+0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 19,968.30, +219.17 (+1.11%)

Stocks Appear Losing Direction after Last Week's Losses and Minor Gains This Week; Bitcoin Approaches $100,000

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Everything is coming up roses on Wall Street Thursday morning. Even companies with net income down nearly 50% (Deere & Co, DE) are trending higher.

Topping the earnings calendar was Nvidia (NVDA), releasing third quarter results after the close Wednesday. The chip-maker earned 81 cents per share, beating estimates of 75 cents. The company's forward guidance fell a bit short of sky-high expectations, however, sending shares lower by one to two percent prior to the opening bell.

Not that a percent here or there changes any of the calculus for owning shares of a company with a $3.6 trillion market cap. Nvidia stock has gained more than 200% this year.

BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $155.7 million. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, came to $1.18 per share, handily topping estimates and well ahead of he same period in 2023, of 98 cents. Investors are rewarding the company's performance with a stock boost of seven to eight percent in pre-market trading.

Deere & Company (DE), maker of farm and garden equipment, saw earnings fall sharply but still beat easy estimates.

For the quarter ended October 27, 2024, Deere reported net income of $1.245 billion, or $4.55 per share, topping the analyst estimate of $3.89 per share. Revenue for the quarter came in at $11.14 billion, above the consensus estimate of $9.23 billion. Both figures represent substantial year-over-year declines, with net income down 47% and worldwide net sales and revenues decreasing 28% compared to the same quarter last year. In the same quarter in 2023, Deere earned $8.32 per share. The decline to $4.55 should be a warning sign of a company losing its mojo.

Nonetheless, shares are rising by two percent in pre-market trading.

Over the past five days, gold has rallied nearly four percent, up more than $100, to $2,670. Silver continues to be suppressed, gaining lass than two percent, currently trading on the COMEX around $31.50, though it has been as high as $31.95.

For whatever reason, bitcoin is off the charts, closing in on $100,000, having surpassed $98,000 this morning. Since the U.S. election, November 5, bitcoin has gained more than 40%.

Even oil has caught a bid, despite the third straight week of inflows according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Russia-Ukraine tensions are cited as the reason WTI crude is above $70 this morning. Not to throw shade on the utterly corrupt oil futures market, but there's an enormous global glut of crude that a few missile strikes aren't going to change. Besides, with Trump's inauguration just 60 days away, market dynamics are likely to veer radically, with the price of oil almost certain to decline.

There's still more than an hour before the cash market opens, so much of what's happened overnight could easily be discounted. U.S. and European markets have been a complete joke for years. That's something that is probably not going to change any time soon. However, those with an investment horizon longer than a few months might see signs of disinflationary trends headed their way. Trump's term of office, extending through 2028, is no doubt going to be very disruptive.

With that in mind, prices for everything from toilet paper to Teslas may be radically realigned. This is by no means a reccomendation to short anything, but caution should be top of mind over the next two months. The weeks before and immediately after Trump's inauguation may be a period of heightened volatility, owing to the paradigm shifts expected in how the U.S. conducts business with the rest of the world.

Dow futures an hour prior to the open are leading the advance, up 150 points, while NASDAQ, noting the weakness in NVDA, are up the least, less than 20 points to the good. S&P futures are up around 12 points, after last week's losses still shying away from the record high of 6,001 on November 11.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 20, 2024:
Dow: 43,408.47, +139.53 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 18,966.14, -21.33 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 5,917.11, +0.13 (+0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 19,749.13, +30.88 (+0.16%)

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Trump Trade All the Rage

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Earnings for Pfizer, Ford, McDonald's, Royal Caribbean

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Kamala Lied About McDonald's; Walz Lied About China

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Google: From "Don't Be Evil" to "We Are Legion"

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Stocks Continue Grinding Higher; Gold, Silver Soaring; C'est La Vie

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Kamala Harris Destoryed In FOX Interview

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Two in a Row

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Non-Farm Payrolls Shocking at +254,000

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