Sunday, November 8, 2020

Media Pushes Biden Presidency; Stocks, Bullion Soar; Oil Remains Below Trend As Fed Promotes Inflation

To say that the week of November 1-7 was dominated by politics would be the understatement of the century.

As of this writing, the mainstream media has proclaimed that Joe Biden has defeated Donald J. Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

The publisher, editors and employees of Downtown Magazine and Money Daily reject the legitimacy of this proclamation, claimed under the most dubious of circumstances with vote counting in at least seven states - specifically Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona - proceeding well past election day and every one of these states erasing large leads by President Trump on election night, the vote counts swinging to Joe Biden as mail-in ballots were added to the totals.

In the case of Pennsylvania, the state which pushed Biden past the 270 electoral college votes needed to ascend to the presidency - Trump's lead of more than 600,000 votes vanished from Tuesday evening through Saturday morning.

Besides the compelling evidence that Joe Biden, while Vice President under Barack Hussein Obama, used his prestige and influence to financially enrich himself and members of his family in suspect business deals with Ukraine, Russia, China and other countries, evidence of widespread vote rigging, vote harvesting, destruction of ballots, insufficient security and and identity verification of mail-in ballots, voting machine irregularities, denial by vote counting entities to allow partisan or independent observers, and extensive election interference and censorship by mainstream and social media companies including consistently misleading "polls" throughout the election cycle point to the a massive fraud perpetrated against President Trump and the American people.

The people who masterminded wholesale destruction of the integrity of the election process are not entirely known, though it is the hope of every patriotic American that the corruption be rooted out and the perpetrators dealt with the most severe justice possible. It is unconscionable to think that unelected and elected officials would sink to such levels of skullduggery and deceit in their quest to rid the government of a president that these same people have harassed, harangued, ridiculed, lied about, and created false narratives to finally defeat by rigging a national election, but it appears that is what has happened.

These devious, divisive actions threaten not just the integrity of our voting process, but the legitimacy of institutions and the nation as a whole. President Trump has vowed to challenge the results of the election and root out the criminal connivers who have subverted a cherished institution and used their power to undermine the democratic process. Downtown Magazine and Money Daily fully support the efforts of President Trump and any investigative individuals and agencies assisting in the process.

While the mainstream media wishes to project the appearance of confidence and reliability in naming Joe Biden the 46th president of the United State of America, the truth is wildly divergent from this characterization and will hopefully be revealed. Media collusion with its false narrative was fully on display Saturday when the major networks broke away from scheduled programming - including the middle of the highly-anticipated Clemson-Notre Dame game - to air what can only be described as a "made for TV" acceptance ceremony, complete with socially-distanced honking cars, a sparse crowd of well-wishers, an over-abundance of American flags (wasn't this victory supposedly about denying the impact of America first policies?), fireworks, dancing, an appearance by Hunter Biden, and the vapid Kumala Harris introducing the jarring, shouted message of healing by the imposter-in-chief, Joe Biden.

For now, that is all there is to say from this perspective.

Stocks rode an election euphoria wave to uncanny heights during the week, eviscerating the losses of the previous week - which was the worst performance for the major indices since March - sending stocks screaming toward new highs. With a gain of nine percent, the NASDAQ closed within less than one percent of a new all-time closing high, while the S&P's seven percent gain for the week left it two percent lower than the September 2nd closing high of 3,580.84. Even the lagging Dow and NYSE Composite made extraordinary gains of more then six percent over the five trading days.

What fueled this most recent bout of irrational exuberance was twofold in the main. A Biden victory signaled a continuation and expansion of inflationary, dollar-destructive deficits and fiscal policy by the US government. Adding fuel was Thursday's unanimous Federal Reserve FOMC policy vote which promoted higher inflation at an accelerated rate and further diminution of the dollar's purchasing power through extensively adding to the central bank's balance sheet through asset purchases and quantitative easing.

The key takeaway from the FOMC statement was the following:

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

What's interesting about the statement is the Fed's openly aggressive policy of price inflation, notably not one of the the Fed's dual or triple mandate of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. Couched in those terms, the Fed has failed on all three fronts. Employment is nowhere near maximum (though under President Trump it had been, prior to the CV-19 pandemic), interest rates well below historical norms have persisted in the 10-year note and 30-year bond for the past two decades and are currently near historic lows, and as far as stable prices are concerned, promoting inlation beyond two percent - or even any inflation at all - will by definition fail to achieve stability in prices. Somehow, the financial wizards on Wall Street believe Fed policies which pointedly decrease the purchasing power of the dollar currency are good for stock market investments.

In the bizarro-world that is the Wall Street economy, a fake currency based entirely upon ever-increasing levels of debt, combined with a newly "elected" fake president and three swings and misses on policy objectives is good enough to drive the stock market to dizzying new heights. Whatever it is that the Wall Street bankers, brokers, and businesses are smoking, they appear to be sharing it with large swaths of willing participants in the media and the public.

With election noise drowning out just about all other news, the dollar was battered to fresh lows along with oil, while competing "safe-haven" currencies such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver took note, proceeding higher.

Long-dated treasury yields were whipsawed from election day (Tuesday) highs to to FOMC announcement (Thursday) lows before settling out at lower levels on Friday. the 10-year yield peaked at 0.90%, the highest since March 20, fell as low as 0.78% before settling out at 0.83%, a decline of five basis points over the week. Yield on the 30-year followed a similar pattern, peaking at 1.66% before declining as low as 1.54% and settling out at 1.60%. The 1.66% level was - with the exception of the October 22 reading of 1.67 - the highest since March 19 (1.78%). The seven month peaks in yield are likely to be benchmarks going forward. While policy directives indicate a desire for higher rates, instability in the underling economy is not likely to produce higher yields. Rather, wholesale dollar destruction is likely to push rates lower, producing, as inflation roars, real negative yields or a complete bust of the treasury complex. No sane person or institution would lend at low interest to an entity bent on massive debt overreach such as the US government is currently. However, with the world upside down due to CV-19 and a willing rush toward a "Great Reset" bond buying is poised to accelerate interest rates into uncharted territories.

The price of crude oil may be the biggest story not reported. On October 30, the price of WTI crude fell to a five-month low of $35.79 per barrel. During the most recent week it gained, though the price rise was slight. Settling out at $37.14, an ongoing global glut is being supported only by China's buying as Europe appears destined for widespread shutdowns which undeniably crimps demand. If the United States - or even large portions of it - re-institute CV-19 lockdowns or restrictions on movement and business, the price of oil will crater back to levels seen during the stock market rout of February and March, into the 20s and possibly the teens.

Cheap oil has traditionally been a harbinger of economic progress and a low price for energy was always seen as sustaining a vibrant economy. However, low energy prices will deflate the price of everything in its path, exactly the opposite of the Fed's intentions to inflate. While the Federal Reserve is certainly good at faking everything, including their power, they eventually cannot control market forces. Lower energy prices based upon supply and demand economics threatens to push against their narrative, producing deflation, lower prices and stagnation if not an outright depression.

With the diminution of the global economy well underway, only a few things would be capable of attaining higher oil prices, one of them, war, may be on the minds of policy leaders.

Bitcoin continued to surge, surpassing $15,000 this week, after rapidly advancing beyond $13,000 the week before.

Precious metals finally caught a bid after months of suppressed prices. Gold rocketed from $1,878.81 to $1,951.35 by week's end, a rise of four percent. Silver, on October 30, was priced at $23.76. A week later, on November 6, silver priced at $25.73. The nearly two-dollar gain was a 8.29% increase.

While prices for precious metals had a solid week, they are still well below the summer highs. This is reflected by the continued sourcing scramble for all manner of minted gold and silver, and by high premiums demanded by dealers. The following are the most recent prices for common gold and silver items on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):

Item: Low / High / Average / Median

1 oz silver coin: 30.00 / 49.00 / 40.57 / 39.25
1 oz silver bar: 31.00 / 45.00 / 36.17 / 35.43
1 oz gold coin: 2,050.05 / 2,097.49 / 2,074.24 / 2,070.23
1 oz gold bar: 1,955.00 / 2,450.00 / 2,065.22 / 2,050.27

That's a WRAP!

At the Close, Friday, November 6, 2020:
Dow: 28,323.40, -66.78 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 11,895.23, +4.30 (+0.04%)
S&P 500: 3,509.44, -1.01 (-0.03%)
NYSE: 13,218.67, +19.55 (+0.15%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1821.80 (+6.87%)
NASDAQ: +983.64 (+9.01%)
S&P 500: +239.48 (+7.32%)
NYSE: +789.39 (+6.35%)

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