While the S&P reached a climactic record closing high on Friday, it was out-paced by the NYSE Composite, which added more than 500 points (4.11%), approaching a record high of its own. Closing within 375.66 points of its all time high of 14,136.98 (February 12, 2020), the Composite index is within 2.6% of setting a new mark. Such a move would likely align with gains to record closes on the NASDAQ (12,056.44, 9/2/20) and Dow Jones Industrials (29,551.42, 2/12/20). The Dow closed at a nine-month high Friday, leaving it a mere 71 points from a record.
Keeping in mind that stocks don't trade in a vacuum, astute investors may be viewing the current near-record or at-record valuations a bit rich, considering the challenging political and economic backdrops presently imposed.
Some states have begun to re-implement lockdown measures and other restrictions in response to rising infection rates of COVID-19. At the same time, the makeup of the political leadership is still in doubt, with the senate hanging by two elections in Georgia which will be decided by run-off elections on January 6th, though the larger concern is still over the presidency, which the mainstream media has awarded to Democrat candidate Joe Biden and which President Trump has steadfastly refused to acknowledge, claiming the election was stolen, as evidence, recounts, and lawsuits continue to mount.
Adding in no small measure to the political turmoil was Saturday's "Million MAGA March" or "Stop the Steal" march in Washington DC. Some estimates believe the crowd that walked from Freedom Plaza near the White House to the steps of the Supreme Court building was as large as a million people, a claim that, naturally, was disputed by elements of the mainstream media. Marked by fiery rhetoric from a variety of speakers, including radio talk show host, Alex Jones - who proclaimed November 14, 2020 to be the beginning of a second American revolution - the assemblage of patriots backing Donald Trump was large enough that the mainstream media could not ignore it nor downplay the level of patriotic spirit on display.
While either the Supreme Court or the House of Representatives may end up being the final arbiter of the presidential election, lawsuits filed by the president and other informed entities did not fare well during the past week, with state court judges dismissing a number of actions in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Meanwhile, a Georgia recount (The Associated Press (AP) is calling it an audit) has been rushed, with inspectors only allowed at a 1:10 ratio to recount tables and the results supposedly to be final by Sunday afternoon.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger called the exercise "an audit, a recount and a recanvas all at once," futher muddying the electoral waters.
Those are the main elements at this time. However, there is so much news, rumor, and questioning that it's impossible to cover all the ground in one article, or many. A number of links below may provide some direction for those interested in doing a "deep dive" into the post-election malaise.
On the economic front, unemployment remains elevated, and could become considerably worse if states begin to clamp down on public movement and activity, as mentioned above. Currently, Oregon and New Mexico have expanded partial lockdowns, while North Dakota has issued a statewide mask mandate and the city of Chicago is advising its residents to not travel or engage in traditional Thanksgiving holiday gatherings.
The response to CV-19 has put a severe crimp on 2020, and now a second wave is inspiring even more damaging restrictions by governors who believe they are tasked with the ultimate health of each and every citizen. Policy differences have crept into presidential politics as well. The Trump administration believes that CV-19 can be dealt with best without lockdowns, while the presumptive Biden team has proposed a nationwide mask mandate and lockdown of between four to six weeks.
While cases were rising in many locales, the announcement Monday by Pfizer that their vaccine had proven 90% effective (on a small sample) sent stocks soaring, though the euphoria waned noticeably by midweek. Friday's surge in stocks was more the result of a lack of bad news and pre-Black Friday posturing than any solid economic prospects.
Oil spent the week zig-zagging, with WTI crude on the NYMEX procing from $37.14 the prior Friday to close out this week at $40.13, but not before hitting $41.45 per barrel on Wednesday. For all the huffing and puffing the oil giants like OPEC, Russia, the US, and Iran have been doing, the price has remained under pressure and quite stable throughout the global pandemic panic. While most parties would like to see higher prices, the constraints put on the public have kept the price from rising to any meaningful degree. There is, quite simply, a massive oversupply coupled with extremely slack demand. Regardless of whether the CV-19 pandemic is contrived or real, serious or benign, until some kind of global solution becomes normative, the economy and the price of oil are likely to remain moribund.
Low or stable energy prices are surely not helping the Federal Reserve's effort to induce massive inflation. It seems that every time one central bank - particularly the US Fed, ECB, or the BOJ - issues a policy directive, there's an equal and opposite force pushing against it.
With the massive entry into equities that started the week, treasuries gapped from Friday into Monday with the yield on the 10-year note rising from 0.83 to 0.96% and the 30-year yield ripping from 1.60 to 1.73%. As the week wore on, with bond markets closed Wednesday for Veteran's Day, the one-off was largely negated. By Friday, the 10-year yield stood at 0.86, the 30-year at 1.65, hardly a move to inspire much ado about anything.
Gold and silver were battered on Monday, apparently deemed "non-essential" by the equity crowd. Gold fell from $1951.70 on Friday, November 6, to $1854.40 at the New York close Monday, November 9. After yet another beatdown, gold recovered slightly, ending the week at $1881.40. It was an equally-distressing blue Monday for silver stackers, who saw the metal slashed from Friday's close at $25.66 to $23.70 Monday. Silver's bounce-back was better than gold's, ending at $24.76 on the 13th.
Presented below are the most recent prices for common gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 32.00 / 42.02 / 36.22 / 34.59
1 oz silver bar: 30.87 / 43.95 / 35.52 / 33.84
1 oz gold coin: 1,975.00 / 2,038.19 / 2,010.10 / 2,005.06
1 oz gold bar: 1,939.16 / 2,000.27 / 1,984.98 / 1,990.33
It's apparent that silver held up better than gold and that despite Monday's smackdown, premiums remain high. What's also becoming clear is that common (non-numismatic) gold bullion coins have become scarce and more specialized, collectible items have found their ways onto the eBay platform, either from established dealers or individuals looking to trade their precious metal holdings for cash.
Links to relevant election dispute articles:
Incomplete List of Suspected Fraud Issues in 2020 Election Sorted by State with Recommended Actions on How to Address - Extremely large and growing list of articles purporting Democrat-led election fraud (with links).
The Biden-Harris Nationwide Election Fraud Scheme to Steal the Ballot State by State Prohibits Them from Winning the Race - article from State of the Nation outlines how fraud would "vitiate everything."
An impassioned Alex Jones speaks at Saturday’s Million MAGA March:
Finally, here's Trump attorney, Sidney Powell, talking with CNN's Lou Dobbs about suspected vote-switching code in Dominion Voting Systems - used in elections nationwide - promising to "release the Kraken."
At the Close, Friday, November 13, 2020:
Dow: 29,479.81, +399.64 (+1.37%)
NASDAQ: 11,829.29, +119.70 (+1.02%)
S&P 500: 3,585.15, +48.14 (+1.36%)
NYSE: 13,761.32, +209.86 (+1.55%)
For the Week:
Dow: +399.64 (+1.67%)
NASDAQ: -65.94 (-0.55%)
S&P 500: +75.71 (+2.16%)
NYSE: +542.65 (+4.11%)
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