The Stock Market Is a Big Boy's Game, but Little Boys - and Girls - Can Play Too; It's Fun, and Easy!

With the final day of trading for the month just ahead, May turned out to be a fairly good month for stocks, with the Dow up 3.80%, the S&P ahead 6.16%, and the NASDAQ rocketing 9.91% higher. The prestigious Wall Street Journal blares that the S&P is on track for its best month since 2023 - wow! a whole two years!

The bulk of the gains were made on just two days, Monday, May 12 and Tuesday, the 27th (this week). That stocks would rip higher to start weeks two weeks apart reeks not only of systemic rot and corruption, it also might be considered by some to be fake and gay. Stocks continue to be vastly overvalued, but that doesn't matter to the horde of traders crowded into options, most of which expire on Fridays.

The game, which has driven more than a few former options players to the sidelines due to extraordinarily-high premiums, is fairly straightforward. Slick traders will select which options they wish to unload later in the week and bump those shares higher at the first opportunity, i.e., Monday, or, in the current case, the first trading session of the week, Tuesday. As expiry approaches, the choice is to either hold shares or sell them, but the options are unloaded. Ka-ching! Instant profit.

Beyond the algorithms which guide trading minute-by-minute, there are large players at major brokerages, family offices, and hedge funds playing their trade in the options market, the volume on which years ago exceeded that of the actual stock exchanges. If stocks are overvalued by multiples, the derivative options are extreme at the margin. While stocks can - and even these days, sometimes are - held for long periods, options have the unique feature of expiry, disappearing into the ether of the global financial structure, ephemeral, fleeting, and often insanely profitable.

Of course, there are multiple uses of stock, index, commodity options in a wide variety of flavors, from 0DTE (Zero days to expiry) to LEAPS (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities) which expire at much longer intervals than ordinary options (think years instead of months), and expert traders employ them to hedge risk and other purposes, but mostly, they're simply gambling, nothing more, which is why Wall Street is often referred to as a casino.

Options trading has become increasingly pervasive in recent years, taking advantage of the market's instability, or, volatility, which works in both directions. The preponderance of large traders in options markets makes it difficult, if not impossible, for the individual investor to profit in options. These large money-movers can exert tremendous force over individual issues, forcing option movement whichever ways they prefer. Of course, the game becomes more complex the more players involved. Winning at options, however, remains largely the province of brokerages and hedge funds.

Venturing away from the options sidetrack back into the actual market, the Shiller PE stands at 36.33, just shy of the October 2024 peak of 37.36, the third-highest levl ever. Analysts touting new all-time highs in stocks in the near term have completely disregarded fundamental analysis, and the recurring trend of earnings by major companies falling well short of year-ago measures. Focused merely on "beating the Street" estimates, the current crop of stock-pickers are more akin to momentum traders than actually finding value. Their "analysis" consists of measuring against any arbitrary number thrown out at the rubes in a manner similar to betting against the spread on a football or basketball game. "Sure, Ohio State will beat Rutgers, but will they cover the 27 points they're laying?"

This is yet another perversion of Wall Street that leads to false conclusions. Companies that beat Wall Street-generated earnings or revenue estimates but fall short of prior quarter or year-ago figures aren't actually growing at all. They're shrinking, often masked by stock buybacks that reduce the number of shares outstanding and produce better results based entirely on gaming the math as opposed to growing the business.

These are just a few of the reasons Fearless Rick and Money Daily are generally critical of stocks and stock markets. They're highly sophisticated and geared for professionals, though, admittedly, passive investors - because of the systemic gaming and perpetual yield-chasing that defines the Wall Street hustle - have profited handsomely. That's what happens in rigged environments. While the big players win big, smaller players can hitch a ride on the express train to riches. The one-percenters have grown extremely fat and happy. The small fry are still munching on the crumbs.

The lack of regulation and enforcement also helps stocks run higher and higher, seemingly every year. Nobody is going to be happy if stocks aren't growing, so government regulators - the few of them left - have become so adroit at shading their eyeballs they're practically blind to any and all abuse that occurs regularly in markets. It's why gold and silver stay down, oil stays up, and stocks keep flying higher, all without the least hint of collusion, misappropriation, or any other nefarious activity. They're all saints on Wall Street. Not a bad apple amongst them. Trust them.

In the current environment, being critical of the Wall Street hustle is about as useful - and even less popular - as shooting fish in a barrel. It's a fun, and very easy, activity, but eventually, holes shot through the barrel drain all the water, leaving dying, and eventually rotting, dead fish.

Will the day ever come that Wall Street has its reckoning, its date with destiny a la 1929, or 1987, or 2000, or 2008? It almost certainly will, but waiting it out on the sidelines isn't exactly a winning strategy. As long as the plates are spinning, there's money to be made and plenty of people to make it.

It's been 17 years since the wheels fell off in 2008, and, to some, it's nothing more than a fading bad memory or a fairy tale from some distant land long ago. Financial crises come and go, but stocks, well, they always go up, and they have, on steroids. Given the current environment, there's about as good a chance of a severe stock market correction or extended bear market as there is congress passing a balanced budget. Ha, ha. It'll never happen.

It's a party. Until it's not.

...and then there's social media.

After Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent complained to media that trade talks with China had "stalled", President Trump dumped futures this morning with the following comments:

Two weeks ago China was in grave economic danger!

The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World.

We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them.

Many factories closed and there was, to put it mildly, "civil unrest."

I saw what was happening and didn’t like it, for them, not for us. I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen.

Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual.

Everybody was happy! That is the good news!!!

The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!

Minutes later, the BEA released the Fed's BFF, the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which fell to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5%.

So, bad news, good news. Futures are tanking. This is how Americans "save." There has to be a better way.

At the Close, Thursday, May 29, 2024:
Dow: 42,215.73, +117.03 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,175.87, +74.93 (+0.39%)
S&P 500: 19,175.87, +74.93 (+0.39%)
NYSE Composite: 19,743.85, +64.91 (+0.33%)

Prepare for Chaos as U.S. Trade Court Nullifies Trump Tariffs; 1Q GDP -0.2%; Nvidia Earnings Boost NASDAQ, S&P

(Editor's Note: When warranted - and often, even when not - publisher Fearless Rick pens these Money Daily posts in first person singular. Today is one of those occasions.)

It has become increasingly obvious that whatever President Donald A. Trump desires to do, as he is (so we thought) empowered as President of the United States, will be met with hard resistance by deep state forces working to undermine the constitutional government.

Late Wednesday, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the president overstepped his authority by imposing reciprocal tariffs on a variety of nations with which the United States trades. Not only have these judges rules the tariffs void, but they ordered that all monies collected under their auspices be returned, an order that very well might bankrupt the government since it is already operating without headroom on the debt ceiling.

Initial reaction to the ruling, in addition to the usual glee over Nvidia earnings, was unsurprisingly positive for the Wall Street brat pack, sending stock futures flying higher overnight. Since then, the BEA issued their second estimate of first quarter GDP, showing it a little better than the advance estimate last month, at -0.2, as opposed to -0.3 initially projected.

What matters here is not that the market sees a less-severe tariff regime as positive, but that the president has been rendered powerless for all intents and purposes. So far, the government, via activist judges have thwarted every action taken by President Trump, denying the citizens of the mandates they voted for in November of last year.

I actually predicted this sort of behavior from the radical left deep state controllers back in January, 2024, when I published, in idleguy.com January 2024, my opinion piece, Joe Biden, Fall Guy, asserting, at the time, that Biden would lose to Trump or be dead or incapacitated, pitting the utterly useless and uninformed Kamala Harris against Trump, who would win handily, because the deep state knew full well that they could impose their will upon any and all executive operations, much as they did in the first go-round, when Trump won in 2016.

Since Trump, via dictates from various federal courts, cannot deport people, fire people, stop sending arms to Ukraine and Israel, reduce the size of government in any meaningful manner, or perform any of the duties without being sued, harangued by the press, and vilified by Democrats and members of his own party, there's certain to be reactions on Wall Street, in Washington, and among the citizenry, that cannot, at this time, be qualitatively or quantitatively measured or understood.

What we have is a country run by backgrounders who do as they please, the will of the people - as guaranteed in the constitution - be damned. Thus, any predictions or outlooks regarding the economy, the stock market or practically any other important metric, would be pure folly.

Prepare for chaos because that's what the deep state desires most.

Best of luck. You'll need it.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 28, 2025:
Dow: 42,098.70 -244.90 (-0.58%)
NASDAQ: 19,100.94, -98.26 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 5,888.55, -32.99 (-0.56%)
NYSE Composite: 19,678.94, -150.96 (-0.76%)

Futures Point to Continuation of Tuesday's Monster Rally; Nvidia Earnings After the Close in Focus

It doesn't take much to enflame Wall Street's animal spirits - a tweet, a headline, Nvidia earnings - and ignite a stock market rally, and it wasn't much that led to Tuesday's massive gains, all but wiping out the losses from the previous week.

A headline that Europe wished to "fast-track" trade and tariff talks with the Trump administration greeted traders returning from the Memorial Day weekend, with the algorithms tuned up to maximum volume.

Adding to the euphoric early vibe was the Conference Board, the usually-stodgy gang reporting blowout numbers in consumer expectations. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose 12.3 points in May to 98, up from April’s 85.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. Another measure, that of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business conditions and the job market jumped 17.4 points to 72.8.

Investors went all in on stocks, disregarding last week's bond rout while looking ahead to Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after the bell Wednesday.

The Dow gained 740 points after losing more than 1,000 last week. The NASDAQ and S&P also shot higher and continued to rally throughout the short week's opening session. The NASDAQ finished just 8 points short of wiping out all of last week's losses.

Traders and speculators were keen on earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), and Macy's (M), all reporting first quarter results prior to the open Wednesday.

Dick's, which announced a buyout of Foot Locker last week, was all the rage, the stock jumping more than five percent in pre-market gambling. The buzz was even greater for clothing retailer, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), the stock rocketing pre-market, up 27% as management is seen executing well on turnaround plans.

Enthusiasm was less pronounced for Macy's (M), with the stock only gaining about three percent prior to the bell. Macy's, once one of America's leading general merchandise retailers, has been trading below $20 per share for the past two years and is currently quoted at $12.

With Nbidia's earnings due out after the closing bell, Wednesday looks to be a continuation of the push back toward all-time highs.

Stock futures are moderately higher at 9:00 am ET. Dow: +13; S&P: +7.75; NASDAQ: +57.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 27, 2025:
Dow: 42,343.65, +740.58 (+1.78%)
NASDAQ: 19,199.16, +461.96 (+2.47%)
S&P 500: 5,921.54, +118.72 (+2.05%)
NYSE Composite: 19,829.89, +295.04 (+1.51%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks, Bonds Stumble as Gold, Silver, Bitcoin Ramp Higher; Low Gas Prices for Memorial Day Weekend

The week saw stocks reverse recent trands by losing ground, while fixed income, instead of providing a safe haven for those fleeing risk assets, also was hit, as treasury yields spiked higher.

The downgrade of U.S. debt by Moody's overhung all markets. Less reported was Moody's Monday downgrade of the banks which benefit from association with the U.S. government, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. Moody's lowered deposit ratings, senior unsecured debt, and counter-party risk assessments for key subsidiaries and branches of the banks to Aa2 from Aa1.

Bitcoin and precious metals were the main beneficiaries of paper assets' decline, bitcoin hitting a record high above 111,000, gold topping $3,350 and silver up above $33.

Progress in foreign affairs stalled, with negotiations concerning Russia, Ukraine and Israel/Gaza and Iran seemingly going nowhere.

On the upside, President Trump's "big beautiful bill" passed the House by the slimmest of margins, one vote. Passage of the continuing resolution in the Senate is less assured, with several Republicans senators, including Kentucky's Rand Paul, either in opposition or expressing significant doubts. The bill, while it keeps Trump's 2017 tax cuts intact, increases defense and border security spending and is projected to add another $2 trillion in fiscal 2026 to the nation's already burgeoning debt, which will exceed $37 trillion by the middle of June.

Stocks

On Friday, after President Trump messaged on his social media platform, truth.com, that Europe would be facing a 50% tariff and Apple a 25% tariff on iPhones manufactured outside the United States, equity markets didn't exactly crash as futures had presaged, but they did not go green either after a week filled with nagging irritations from a variety of sources.

Tech stocks took a hit during the week, with semis down 4.5%. Banks were also on the receiving end of the selling, with the financial sector down 4.1%. Overall, the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ were each down more than two percent on the week. Dow Transports dropped the most, down 4.11%.

The week ahead will be highlighted by Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday, Thursday's second estimate of U.S. Q1 GDP growth, and April core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - widely seen as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.

There are still companies reporting first quarter earnings, including:

Tuesday: (before open) AutoZone (AZO), Scotiabank (BNS); (after close) Semtech (SMTC), Box (BOX)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Macy's (M), Bank of Montreal (BMO); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM)

Thursday: (before open) Best Buy (BBY), Foot Locker (FL), Hormel Foods ((HRL), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Costco (COST), Dell (DELL), Gap Inc. (GAP), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Friday: (before open) Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Canopy Growth (CGC).

Of interest will be reports from Dick's Sporting Goods, and Foot Locker, the shoe retailer being acquired by Dick's.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/17/2025	4.36	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.22	3.99
04/25/2025	4.34	4.37	4.36	4.32	4.32	4.22	3.95
05/02/2025	4.38	4.36	4.34	4.33	4.41	4.26	4.00
05/09/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.34	4.40	4.28	4.05
05/16/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.37	4.42	4.30	4.13
05/23/2025	4.36	4.34	4.35	4.36	4.43	4.35	4.15

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/17/2025	3.81	3.82	3.95	4.13	4.34	4.82	4.80
04/25/2025	3.74	3.76	3.88	4.06	4.29	4.75	4.74
05/02/2025	3.83	3.82	3.92	4.11	4.33	4.81	4.79
05/09/2025	3.88	3.85	4.00	4.18	4.37	4.86	4.83
05/16/2025	3.98	3.95	4.06	4.24	4.43	4.92	4.89
05/23/2025	4.00	3.96	4.08	4.29	4.51	5.03	5.04

Rather than providing a backstop for falling equities, treasuries instead were sold off during the week, with interest rates rising the most on the longest durations. The 30-year bond gained a smashing 15 basis points (0.15%), approaching levels last seen in 2007. Similarly, the benchmark 10-year note was being shedded, gaining 8 basis points in yield over the course of the week.

With the 2-year note only up 0.02, the spread on 2s-10s widened to 51, as full spectrum (30-days out to 30-years) spread widened most of all, to +68, the widest since Money Daily began tracking, 18 months ago.

Spreads between junk (Baa) and High Yield corporate bonds and treasuries are still historically low, but bear watching. It appears that treasuries themselves are under assault, with the gap between them and corporates being squeezed, the inference being that treasuries themselves may no longer be considered "risk-free", with corporate high yields preferred.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at $61.76, down from the prior Friday reading of $62.49. The price of oil remains higher than fundamentals suggest, and further production raises by OPEC countries may be forthcoming. As it is, this level is somewhat appealing to both producers and consumers, providing profit for the former and lower prices for the latter.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.15, down a couple of cents from last week, and the lowest price over a Memorial Day weekend since 2020.

The high price remained the province of California at $4.81, down seven cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.63. The only other state reporting a fuel price under $2.70 is Louisiana ($2.67). The remainder of the Southeastern states - including Oklahoma and Texas - range from Alabama at $2.71 and South Carolina at $2.72, to the high end of North Carolina ($2.84) and Georgia ($2.88). Florida remained above $3.00, at $3.04.

The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.29). New England and East coast states all range between $2.89 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (New York). Prices were pretty stable compared to the prior week.

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price a nickel higher than last week. Kentucky is the lowest in the region, at $2.82, followed by Kansas and Missouri ($2.89). Indiana drivers are paying $3.23. Similarly, Michigan's prices rose from $3.18 last week to $3.22 currently. The rest of the Midwest ranges from $2.90 (North Dakota) to $3.05 (Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota).

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, eight cents higher than last week, at at $4.39. Oregon ($3.99) was higher this week, while Nevada ($3.84) was a nickel lower. Arizona ($3.35) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain at $2.86. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.25 and $3.23, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas is found in one fewer state this week than last, with just 20 hitting the mark. Prospects of lower gas prices for American drivers remain hopeful.

Bitcoin

This week: $107,017.20
Last week: $103,888.10
2 weeks ago: $104,416.70
6 months ago: $94,322.04
One year ago: $67,914.83
Five years ago: $9,669.13

Bitcoin ramped above $111,000 during the week, setting yet another record high. The response by bitcoin to trouble in risk assets (stocks) and fixed income paper (treasuries and corporate bonds) was echoed by similar moves in precious metals. In some people's minds, bitcoin is as good a safe haven as gold and silver, the split being somewhat generational, with Boomers preferring the metals and GenX and GenZ types going with crypto. Millennials are seemingly split between the two.

On Wednesday, May 21, a motion to proceed passed in the U.S. Senate, 69-31, moving the GENIUS Act closer to a vote on final passage, which is expected following Congress’ Memorial Day recess. The vote clears the way for the legislation to move to full debate on the Senate floor. The bill would place safeguards and regulations on stablecoins and is being promoted as a positive development for U.S. dollar interests.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 99.81; last week: 98.84

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70

Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Silver price 5/23: $33.64

Gold and silver each rebounded sharply as risk appeared to be re-emerging. Between trade issues, the U.S. budgetary issues of excessive debt and runaway spending, and geo-politics (Ukraine, Middle East), precious metals are increasingly seen as safe havens. With Japan's 30, 40, and 50-year bonds at historic highs (over 3%) and U.S. treasuries being increasingly shunned (especially by BRICS-related central banks), gold, which will become a Tier-1 asset for U.S. banks in a little more than a month (July 1), seems a natural fit.

Silver will respond, at some point, to the absurdly high gold:silver ratio which continues to hover around 100. Since gold continues to rise, it could be quite some time before the silver rally ensues, though, considering the extreme price suppression and volatility in all markets, silver might take off unexpectedly. It's difficult to get a good reading on timing for silver, since the GSR has almost never been this high. The optimal approach would be to buy both, with slight favoritism toward silver.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	37.00	45.97	41.68	41.73
1 oz silver bar:	39.00	47.00	43.18	42.67
1 oz gold coin:	3,493.70	3,610.22	3,551.51	3,537.64
1 oz gold bar:	3,465.00	3,576.02	3,528.19	3,527.22

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose rapidly through the week, to $42.32, a $2.37 gain from the May 18 price of $39.95 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

As we honor our fallen veterans this Memorial Day weekend, bearing witness to the freedoms they supposedly died to protect, we, the living, should be inspired to do more while we can to return America to its former glory. The United States, while still considered a freedom-loving nation, has gradually ceded a host of individual rights to the power of the federal government, a trend, that, if continued, does not augur well for future generations.

At the Close, Friday, May 23, 2025:
Dow: 41,603.07, -256.02 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ: 18,737.21, -188.53 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 5,802.82, -39.19 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 19,534.84, -29.87 (-0.15%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1051.67 (-2.47%)
NASDAQ: -473.89 (-2.47%)
S&P 500: -155.56 (-2.61%)
NYSE Composite: -399.22 (-2.00%)
Dow Transports: -623.74 (-4.11%)

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Wheels Are Coming Off as Stock Market Set to Tank; U.S. Government Debt Will Surpass $37 Trillion Before the Next FOMC Meeting

Gains on the major indices Thursday evaporated in the last half hour of trading, sending the S&P, Dow, and NYSE Composite tumbling into the red. Only the NASDAQ, because it is the biggest bubble in stock market history, remained positive, though it slid 125 points, giving up more than 2/3rds of its gains.

Through Thursday, stocks were on track for a losing week. The Dow is down 795 points (1.87%) for the week. The NASDAQ has dropped 285 points (1.49%), the S&P is off 116 (1.95%), and the NYSE Composite is down 369 points (1.85%).

Anybody who was thinking, "Well, that's OK. Stocks are back close to their all-time highs," and planning to spend the three-day weekend with friends and family (usually mutually-exclusive groups) might want to think again.

At about 7:40 am ET, President Trump posted a message on X or Truth.com saying that Apple would have to pay a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outside the United States. He also posted that starting June 1, the EU would have to pay a 50% tariff on all exports to the U.S., as trade talks have apparently broken down.

While these developments may be somewhat of a surprise, they're not the sole cause of futures falling off a cliff. Trump's tweets are merely cover for what's really causing what looks to be a watershed event on Friday. The real cause of the carnage about to take place is multi-faceted, and all of it is negative. Here's the short list:

• Russia is not going to negotiate on a cease-fire or truce of any kind in Ukraine. It's over. Russia will continue to advance, taking Kiev, and then all of Western Ukraine.
• The U.S. government is chock full of criminals. Senators and House representatives have all taken bribes and kickbacks from Ukraine, drug companies, and anyone else with a handful of cash. The U.S. congress has been looting the Treasury for decades.
• Japan's nearly five decades of self-funding and self-loathing are about to end. The country is fully owned by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which has issued bonds in their fake, fiat currency, the yen, since 1982. Compared to the U.S. dollar, it's garbage. Compared to real money, gold and silver, it's about as useful as toilet paper. The Japanese economy is sunk.
• Actual patriotic Americans - those who mostly voted for Trump - are outraged over a variety of issues. House members refused to make the cuts imposed by Elon Musk's DOGE team permanent. Federal court judges have thwarted every executive order that President Trump has issued. Food prices remain high. Gas prices are rigged. Americans, who rightfully understand the depth of corruption in Washington, D.C., state capitals and even local governments, have had enough and are beginning to take matters into their own hands. Some refuse to pay taxes. Many more are armed to the teeth, awaiting an actual uprising, an insurrection, against the corrupt federal government.
• Gold and silver price suppression is beyond the pale. A gold:silver ratio over 100 was the last straw, exposing the scandalous price-rigging designed to keep the U.S. dollar afloat.
• BRICS and other nations are shedding U.S. Treasuries, swapping out for gold, which will become a Tier 1 asset for American banks on July 1. The U.S. dollar, euro, and pound are close to being rejected and thrown into the dustbin of history along with all other failed fiat currencies.

That's only the beginning. Illegal immigration, blacks acting like savages are ignored by a controlled media which delivers propaganda rather than honest news reporting. Left-leaning journalists lied about the 2020 elections, Joe Biden's health, Trump's connection to Russia, COVID, and much, much more.

The wheels are coming off the wagon, folks. Your three-day Memorial Day weekend is going to be ruined by a stock market crash. Even if it doesn't materialize today, it will. Everything connected to Wall Street, finance, and your life savings is being unraveled. Those in power, at the Federal Reserve and in government, know that the current trajectory is unsustainable. It's about to come apart at the seams.

With markets about to open Friday, stock futures remain depressed. Dow futures: -525; NASDAQ futures: -380; S&P futures: -82.

The United States government creates just less than $5 billion in new debt per day (realistically, it's about $4.76 billion). You can check it on the US Debt Clock, which is a fairly accurate, real-time run. It's kind of mesmerizing, so it's not advisable to watch the spinning numbers for maore than a few minutes at a time.

Those wishing to estimate when the U.S. government will hit a specific target, say, $37 trillion or $40 trillion, can do the math on a simple calculator. $4.76 billion a day adds up to somewhere in the range of $145-148 billion in your typical month, a little less for April, June, September, and November, which only have 30 days, and February, thankfully, only has 28 except in leap years.

So, when will the U.S. government be $37 trillion in debt? In about 24 or 25 days. Debt accumulation does not take weekends or holidays off; it just keeps running, as any thieving banker would so desire.

Today being the 23rd of May, the timeline for turning over another TRILLION would be Monday, June 16, right before the next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (Tuesday-Wednesday, June 17-18). It would be some seriously sweet irony if the debt clock clicked over to $37 trillion when the FOMC policy announcement is made at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, and even better if it happened during Chairman Powell's press conference. Steve Liesman from CNBC could cough up a question as it ticks past the magic number, like, "Chairman Powell, the U.S. debt just surpassed $37 trillion. Is this a level of debt you consider sustainable?"

Of course, that would never happen. At least not in the near future. But, someday, somebody is going to question just how much debt is too much. Some economists believe it's already too much, becoming an increasingly troublesome burden when the Debt/GDP ratio surpassed 100%. That happened right around the end of 2012 according to the graph below.

The free-spending during the COVID era pushed the ratio to a record high of 132.81, and it appears the Fed got a little worried, and it started coming down. After all, everybody wants their money back, right? However, the way this is going, since the U.S. didn't implode at 100% Debt/GDP or 120%, we should be fine when it hits 130% or even 150%. Of course, by then, a gallon of gas will cost $6, bread will be $8 a loaf and an acceptable minimum wage will be about $25 an hour to flip burgers or paint houses.

Does anybody actually want to live like that?

Apparently, our overlords in Washington D.C. (Den of Criminals) think we can manage. So, print more! Who needs austerity and balanced budgets when you have magic computers that can conjure up billions in fresh dough in seconds?

The point is, if the U.S. government was a business, they'd be bankrupt. Since they're not, no bankruptcy. The Fed can just buy up any bonds they float out there if nobody else is interested. Ad infinitum.

On its current trajectory of increasing the debt by $100 billion every 21 days (see what I did there?), it will take another 630 days to reach $40 trillion, or, about 21 months. See you all back here in February, 2027. It ought to be a real kick.

For now, Happy Memorial Day.

At the Close, Thursday, May 22, 2025:
Dow: 41,859.09, -1.35 (-0.00%)
NASDAQ: 18,925.73, +53.09 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 5,842.01, -2.60 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 19,564.71, -43.10 (-0.22%)

Markets Slide on Interest Rate Fear; House Moves Forward on Big, Beautiful Bill; Bitcoin Makes New High Above $111,000

You know markets are in trouble when the one thing that has no intrinsic value - bitcoin - is the only "asset" making gains. Bitcoin reached a record high above $111,000 earlier this morning.

It is at this point that sly Wall Street insiders are parking their money in bitcoin, awaiting either the next greater fool to buy their crypto at a higher price or until the latest market swoon occurs, ready to swoop in and snatch up stocks on the cheap.

The people who claim the stock market is nothing but a giant, rigged casino are on the right track.

You also know that when markets are troubled, gold and silver get sold off, as they are this morning. Gold is down 0.66%, at $3,393.10, and silver is off 2.20%, at $32.91. Six hours ago, an ounce of silver was worth a dollar more - $33.91. Why the sudden change? Could there be fraud afoot? It's laughable to believe anything about the precious metals markets on the COMEX are even remotely legitimate. The volume on contracts traded in a week represent more than is mined in a year.

Everybody plays along until they don't. When the tide goes out, the riggers at the CME, LBMA, COMEX, the Exchange Stabilization Fund (The ESF is an emergency reserve fund of the United States Treasury Department, normally used for foreign exchange intervention.), and the Federal Reserve will be found to be lacking in moral principle, and, worse, marketable collateral. The Fed is a counterfeiting operation and the ESF helps to ensure that nobody gets a fair shake against the nighty U.S. dollar.

Wednesday's steep slide midday was the result of rising interest rates due to a very poor auction of 20-year bonds. Market participants outside of the Fed itself and its primary dealers - Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the rest of the usual suspects - aren't apparently in the mood to finance the U.S. federal government for the next 20 years at anything less than a five percent return. It's actually somewhat amazing that figure isn't much higher, like eight or 10 percent, given that the moondogs on Capitol Hill haven't the least bit of sense about cutting back on spending, reducing the deficit, or downsizing the government.

Moody's, about a decade too late, downgraded the U.S. government's rating from AAA to AA1, again, somewhat laughable. The government can't even pay its own bonds back. It rolls them over and adds the balance to the "national" debt. There's nothing national about the so-called national debt. It's the government's debt. American citizens actually owe nothing of that $37 trillion bag of notes, yet they'll be the ones paying the price for the government's waste, fraud and abuse. Americans pay every time they buy a loaf of bread, put gas in their car or take out a mortgage. Americans have been put through the wringer of inflation for so long even the slightest relief from their self-imposed debt slavery seems like a holiday.

Nothing practically any western government says or does matters these days. They're full of empty promises and horse manure. They have nothing more to offer than propaganda - "Russians are coming to rape your wives and eat your children" - and the economics of the welfare/warfare state. "We pay you to consume, so shut up while we blow up the rest of the world."

In less than two months, the 17th BRICS Summit will be held in Rio de Janiero, Brazil (July 6-7), which is, incidentally, less than a week after gold becomes a Tier-1 asset for not just central banks, but commercial banks as well. The BRICS are moving on without the Western nations. They don't need them. They don't need many more 10, 20, or 30-year treasury bonds, not anything close to the estimated $1.3-$1.7 trillion Treasury will be issuing over the next three quarters.

President Trump is walking a very fine line with his "big, beautiful budget." His core supporters backed him because they thought he would work toward downsizing the federal bureaucracy and balancing the budget. The omnibus bill currently moving through the halls of congress does neither. Instead the bill approves as much, if not more, spending than the last Biden budget, complete with a deficit of close to $2 trillion. At least the bill - which made it through the House by a single vote Wednesday night - extends the 2017 Trump tax cuts rather than eliminating them. How kind of our superiors!

The American people still don't like it much, and, so it seems, neither do bond investors.

Suitably, an hour before the equity markets open, stock futures are down and sinking deeper into the red.

Tough luck. This is as good as it's going to get.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 21, 2025:
Dow: 41,860.44, -816.80 (-1.91%)
NASDAQ: 18,872.64, -270.07 (-1.41%)
S&P 500: 5,844.61, -95.85 (-1.61%)
NYSE Composite: 19,607.80, -334.40 (-1.68%)

Sentiment Turns More Negative as Target Fails on EPS; Stocks Appear Ready for Another Trip Lower; Gold, Silver Recovering

This is a fluid situation.

Just when people begin to believe the worst is behind them - as in the recent market swoon, blamed on tariff fears rather than simple, obvious overvaluation - the next shoe will drop. The evidence is very clear based on recent developments, or, in the case of Ukraine and the Middle East, the lack of them.

The U.S. economy is currently at a standstill. Europe is pushing on a string while tilting over the edge of solvency into a bottomless abyss of taxes, cultural disorientation, and unfundable liabilities. Most countries in the European Union suffer from what Margaret Thatcher once expressed, "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."

European governments want to start borrowing like its wartime, especially Germany and France. The UK, scarcely outside the "union" is already on the same path. More money for weapons development to defeat the oncoming Russian horde that does not exist anywhere but in the minds of politicians means less for social programs and more into the pockets of corrupt leaders and their associates.

In the U.S., President Trump's attempts to right the ship of state before it capsizes is being thwarted on three sides: congress, mainstream media, and the courts are all opposed to allowing the administration to function as it should. For its own part, the success of President Trump's first few months is being overstated. Deportations number less than 100,000, if even that amount. NBC News reported that ICE deported 11,000 migrants in February and just over 12,300 in the first four weeks of March.

For those unfamiliar with mathematics, at a wildly optimistic rate of, let's say, 50,000 a month, it would take 20 months to deport 1,000,000 illegals. Being that there are more than 10 million - and some estimates say there are as many as 30 million - it would take 200 months, or, 16 years and nine months, at a rate of 50,000 a month to clear the deck of all 10 million. In other words, "ain't gonna happen."

Thus far, Trump's plan to "Make America Great Again" has been more rhetoric than reality. Those Middle East deals he helped craft between sheiks and emirs and titans of US technology companies was a quick study of corporatocracy in action, not to be confused with corporatism or even fascism, the term most often linked to the idea of combining the force of major corporations and the state. The term "fascism" has multiple meanings, depending on the source, making the expression by historian Ian Kershaw that "trying to define 'fascism' is like trying to nail jelly to the wall," appropriate.

In any case, seeing Trump traipsing around the Mideast with an entourage of tech billionaires sends somewhat the wrong message to ordinary American citizens, and possibly an even worse on to the rest of the world. It also plays right into the hands of the liberal mass who see Trump as a potential dictator and denier of people's rights. So far, big tech companies have benefitted the most from the Trump administration's policies, the middle and lower classes, not so much.

What can be said of President Trump is that at least he appears to be trying to fix decades of poor policy decisions made by bureaucrats and politicians in the federal government's labyrinthine bureaucracy. His combative, unorthodox methods are a welcome relief from the usual off-putting by the elected and unelected Washington elitists.

Meanwhile, his "big, beautiful bill," sometimes being referenced as "B3," might better be described as a "bollocks budget boondoggle," complete with trillion dollar excess for defense, a 65% increase in funding for Homeland Security, but also an extension of the tax cuts from 2017, which are st to expire, saving middle class Americans an average of $1,700 per year. There's a lot in the 1000-page bill, including changes to Medicaid requirements, welfare, energy policies and an increase to the SALT deduction for state taxes, up to possibly $40,000 from the current $10,000. Congress seems to be focused on this last provision, hoping to pass the bill by Memorial Day, which is a bit early this year, Monday, May 26. Time is running short if congress expects to achieve that goal.

In Australia, the newly-elected government is seriously considering legislation that amounts to taxation on unrealized capital gains, a proposal that looks like a test case for WEF world population control policies.

In earnings news, Target (TGT) reported Wednesday morning, with this:

First quarter SG&A* Expense and Operating Income included $593 million in pre-tax gains from the settlement of credit card interchange fee litigation.

First quarter GAAP EPS was $2.27 compared with $2.03 last year. Adjusted EPS1, which excludes the gains from litigation settlements, was $1.30.

*SG&A: Selling, General, and Administrative Expenses

The press release was focused on small positives, like better digital sales, a partnership with Kate Spade, and increased volume on Easter and Valentine's Day (duh!), rather than the ugly reality of a year-over-year 36% EPS decline.

Serious investors aren't buying it. Target stock is down more than six percent in pre-market trading.

Lowe's (LOW) reported this morning, citing net earnings of $1.6 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.92 for the quarter ended May 2, 2025, compared to diluted EPS of $3.06 in the first quarter of 2024. Once again, though the EPS beat Wall Street estimates, it was lower than the previous year, a pattern seen all-too often over the past three quarters from a wide variety of publicly-traded companies.

Still, there are buyers for everything, though sentiment may be turning a bit bearish again. Lowe's shares are slightly positive prior to the open.

Gold was bid up over $3,300 and silver above $33 overnight, while WTI crude oil continues to flirt with higher prices, heading for $63 per barrel this morning. The price of crude is vastly overpriced. If anything, trading in oil the past few months has suggested a price for WTI crude should be closer to $45 than $70 and gas prices in the U.S. should be well below $3.00 nationally, while the average gallon of gas in America is currently at $3.16, according to Gas Buddy.

With markets due to open within minutes, futures are presaging a sizable drop on the bell. Dow futures are off 360, NASDAQ futures are -145, S&P futures down 38.

Beware the snake oil salespeople telling you the danger has passed. It appears to be just getting started.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 20, 2025:
Dow: 42,677.24, -114.83 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: 19,142.71, -72.75 (-0.38%)
S&P 500: 5,940.46, -23.14 (-0.39%)
NYSE Composite: 19,942.21, -32.88 (-0.16%)

Markets Stall as Ukraine Talks Yield Nothing Substantive; President's Spending Bill Reconsidered in House; Home Depot Rises on Earnings Miss

Stocks took the path of least resistance on Monday, rising slightly in a dull, pointless session.

There was little excitement over President Trump's two-hour phone call with Russia's President Putin, even though both participants expressed positive sentiments. The fact of the matter is that neither of the three-sided coin that is the U.S., Russia, and the Ukraine have flipped their positions.

Russia maintains its positions from 2024, insisting negotiations focus on root causes, adding that the four partially-captured regions belong to Russia along with Crimea.

Contacted after the Trump-Putin call, Ukraine's de facto leader, Zelenskyy, reiterated that the besieged country would not cede territory to Russia.

For its part, the U.S. continues to fund Ukraine, deliver arms and provide intelligence.

Despite the happy talk, nothing has been accomplished in a series of false starts. No side seems capable of making concessions, which is perfectly understandable from the Russian angle, since they are winning the war on the ground. The conflict will likely continue until Russia accomplishes its well-defined goals and takes the four oblasts that are officially part of Russia, secures the Crimean peninsula and ousts Kiev's leadership.

Even though there seems to be a concerted effort toward a non-military solution, nothing of substance is being achieved. Russia has likely prepared a summer offensive, holding off presently until all sides retreat from negotiations. The war will continue as it serves all involved - plus most of Europe - politically.

To Wall Street, Ukraine is a back-burner issue. Developments have little, if any, impact.

In the Senate, the GENIUS Act, regulating stablecoins, has moved out of committee and towards a cloture vote by the full Senate. It would need a 60-vote majority to go to the floor for final passage. At this point, amendments can be considered. Being hailed as a necessary step to safeguard users of stablecoins (pegged to the U.S. dollar), there isn't much meat on the bones of the bill.

Essentially, stablecoin issuers will also be held to bank-like standards regarding anti money-laundering requirements, sanctions compliance, and requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act, so, nothing really new, other than the usual grandstanding by both parties, acting like the bill is necessary. Mostly, it allows congress to erect another means of moving money and another shield against scrutiny by the public in its endless looting of U.S. taxpayers.

Now that stocks have recovered all of the losses from the tariff trauma, the next leg higher figures to face some difficulty. It should be noted that all of the major indices had backed off from previous highs prior to April 2nd's tariff announcement. Trump has been and will be used by the press as a scapegoat for any further market declines, should any occur. Since it's the business of Wall Street to continue moving stock prices higher, there may not be the need for any excuses.

Case in point is this morning's earnings release from Home Depot (HD). The home-improvement retailer reported higher revenue - up 9.4% year over year. However, earnings per share declined nearly five percent to $3.45, missing the $3.59 estimate. Those results imply an unhealthy margin squeeze, taking in more money but producing less profit.

Pre-market, shares of Home Depot are rising, up more than two percent, proving, yet again, nothing matters in this market other than perception and the ability of big money to dominate trading. Ring-a-ding-ding.

With little else to base trading upon, expect some flattening out in Tuesday's session, possibly even losses. The 10-year treasury note yielded more than 4.5% for a brief period on Monday. As soon as it was tamped down below that level - around noon - stocks began to churn a little higher. Markets are stalled out until something breaks in one direction or the other. Algorithmic trading relying on headlines needs something more than the usual status quo to make headway.

An hour before the opening bell, futures are relatively flat. Dow futures are -17; S&P futures are -14; NASDAQ futures, -83.

Gold is moving higher, having found a base around $3,200. Silver is reacting as well, at $32.75 on the COMEX. WTI crude oil is holding steady at $62 per barrel, a level unlikely to hold for long as OPEC heads for production ramps in June.

U.S. government debt continues to grow unabated as the House attempts to move forward with the President's outline for fiscal 2026 spending plans, which include an estimated $1.5 trillion deficit. Nothing has changed except a few of the players; more noise-making from Capitol Hill forthcoming.

At the Close, Monday, May 19, 2025:
Dow: 42,792.07, +137.33 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 19,215.46, +4.36 (+0.02%)
S&P 500: 5,963.60, +5.22 (+0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 19,975.09, +41.03 (+0.21%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Explode Higher; Gold Continues Decline; Treasury Market Stressed on Moody's Downgrade; Bitcoin Stalls

Owning stocks over the past few months proved that it pays not to panic. Major averages are back to about even for the year after torrid trading to the upside in four of the last six weeks. Shorts have been, as it's said, carried out on stretchers, the negative point of view replaced by giddy acceptance of the new narrative inspired by President Trump and his deal-making travels throughout the Middle East.

Who knew reshaping the nature of global commerce could be accomplished in less than six months?

Stocks

The gains on major indices were outlandish, especially on the NASDAQ (+7.15%), outdone by the Dow Transports, which were up 1119.01 (+7.97%) on the week. Over the past month, stocks have moved from well below their 50 and 200-day moving averages to just above them on the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and NYSE Composite. Only the moribund Dow Transports are still slumping, but, if this week signaled that investors simply will not tolerate bear markets for more than a few weeks, then expect the transportation sector to continue rallying.

At the current pace, stocks should be challenging all-time highs within weeks. At least, that's how it appears to be going. Only congress (not to mention the horde of activist federal judges), in its own sad manner, seems capable of derailing the Trump agenda for a "golden age." The House Budget Committee failed to move Trump's preferred "big, beautiful bill" to a full vote, with five Republicans joining all 16 Democrats on the committee, defeating it in a 21-16 defeat for the MAGA crowd.

The bill has more than its share of lumps, from outsized budgetary funding for defense to cuts in social programs. It's far less than perfect and will need tweaking and probably some arm-twisting. Congress seems capable of and perfectly happy to keep with its habit of overspending and working with continuing resolutions rather than passing an actual budget. If anything can torpedo positive momentum on Wall Street, congress is surely equal to the task.

Otherwise, it's not just Trump making deals. The big news this week was Dick's Sporting Goods acquiring Foot Locker, the deal expected to close in the second half. The merger agreement was unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies. Foot Locker shareholders can opt for either $24 in cash or 0.1168 shares of Dick’s common stock for each share of Foot Locker common stock, the companies said in a statement.

The stream of first quarter earnings has become but a trikle, with Home Depot, Lowe's and Target the major companies reporting this week. Here's the rundown:

Monday: (before open) Ryanair (RYAAY), Compugen (CGEN); (after close) Trip.com (TCOM)

Tuesday: (before open) Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Home Depot (BD); (after close) Palo Alto (PANW), Viasat (VSAT), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Medtronic (MDT), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT); (after close) Urban Outfitters (URBN), American Superconductor (AMSC)

Thursday: (before open) Advance Auto Parts (AAP), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Analog Devices (ADI), Ralph Lauren (RL), TD Bank (TD), Williams-Sonoma (WSM); (after close) Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Lionsgate (LION), Intuit (INTU), Deckers (DECK).

Data is on the light side this coming week, with April new and existing home sales likely to be the most impactful release.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/11/2025	4.37	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.21	4.04
04/17/2025	4.36	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.22	3.99
04/25/2025	4.34	4.37	4.36	4.32	4.32	4.22	3.95
05/02/2025	4.38	4.36	4.34	4.33	4.41	4.26	4.00
05/09/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.34	4.40	4.28	4.05
05/16/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.37	4.42	4.30	4.13

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/11/2025	3.96	3.98	4.15	4.32	4.48	4.91	4.85
04/17/2025	3.81	3.82	3.95	4.13	4.34	4.82	4.80
04/25/2025	3.74	3.76	3.88	4.06	4.29	4.75	4.74
05/02/2025	3.83	3.82	3.92	4.11	4.33	4.81	4.79
05/09/2025	3.88	3.85	4.00	4.18	4.37	4.86	4.83
05/16/2025	3.98	3.95	4.06	4.24	4.43	4.92	4.89

Spreads remained high, with full spectrum reaching an unprecedented level of +52 while 2s-10s remained elevated at +45. There's still stress in the system, manifested by the rising 10-year note yield, the highest in five weeks and daringly close to the "make or break" level at 4.50%. Likewise, the 30-year note yielding close to five percent indicates the rather obvious preference of risk assets (stocks) over treasuries and other fixed-income instruments.

Animal spirits have been once again released from cages on Wall Street, the speculative fury for stocks pressuring the bond market. In the current atmosphere, rate cuts might be more wishful thinking than anything else.

Adding to pressure on long-dated maturities was Friday's U.S. debt downgrade from AAA to AA1 by Moody's, joining Standard & Poor’s, which downgraded the U.S. to AA+ from AAA in August, 2011, and Fitch Ratings, which cut the U.S. rating to AA+ from AAA, in August, 2023.

If it was even possible, the treasury yield curve continued to flatten, with a complete spread of just 0.94% between the low (3-year, 3.95) to the high (30-year, 4.89%). Should the U.S. federal government continue running massive deficits, as opposed to showing ANY fiscal restraint, rates will continue to rise as investors take flight from the supposed "risk-free" trade in U.S. treasuries.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at a price of $62.49, versus last Friday's 61.06. Two weeks ago the closing price was $58.38, which was the lowest level since February, 2021. Oil's gain on the week appears to stem from an oversold condition. Oil futures are in backwardation, the forward price of the futures contract is lower than the spot price, implying high inventory levels. With production increases by OPEC+ about to take effect in June, future prices are understandingly lower through January, 2026, bottoming out at $59.99.

Futures prices are reflecting what global markets are currently broadcasting: no global recession, no supply chain chaos, low inflation, happy talk all around. The "good times" narrative has taken hold of most markets.

Gas prices simply refuse to come down. Retailers apparently respond immediately to gains in the price of oil, slowly to declines, as the lows from two weeks ago barely registered. The national average was $3.12. Demand being inelastic, oil companies and retailers rely on a mobile consumer for profits.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.17, up seven cents from last week.

The high price remained the province of California at $4.88, up seven cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.65. The only other state reporting a fuel price under $2.70 is Tennessee ($2.68). Louisiana is right at $2.70, followed by South Carolina ($2.73) and Alabama ($2.74). In Oklahoma, the price is $2.78. Texas, $2.79; Arkansas, $2.80. Florida's foray below $3.00 lasted less than a week. It's currently $3.02.

The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.29). New England and East coast states all range between $2.88 (New Hampshire) and $3.10 (Maryland). Prices are overall slightly higher than last week.

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.36), the price a nickel lower than last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest, followed by Kentucky ($2.88) and Missouri ($2.91) Indiana drivers are paying $3.19, a substantial increase from last week's $3.07. Similarly, Michigan's prices rose from $3.05 last week to $3.18 currently.

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, higher, at at $4.31. Oregon ($3.91) and Nevada ($3.89) are seeing higher prices this week as well. Arizona appeared headed for sub-$3.00, down to $3.26 last week, bouncing back up to $3.40. Neighboring New Mexico is a relative bargain at $2.92, though that's 14 cents higher than last week. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.24 and $3.25, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas is found in fewer states this week than last, with just 21 hitting the mark. Prospects of lower gas prices for American drivers seem to be fading along with fear of recession.

Bitcoin

This week: $103,888.10
Last week: $104,416.70
2 weeks ago: $95,497.28
6 months ago: $91,546.89
One year ago: $66,680.90
Five years ago: $9,177.64

Bitcoin has stalled out in a range of $102,000 to $104,000, possibly reflecting the holdup in the U.S. Senate of the GENIUS act, which failed to break out of committee two weeks ago. There is supposedly a cloture vote upcoming, possibly as early as Monday, according to sources close to Senate majority leader John Thune. The bill, sponsored by Tennessee Senator Bill Haggerty, who probably knows more about gambling than crypto-currencies, provides "safeguards" for consumers (AKA: more furious fleecing).

Senators Kirsten Gillebrand (NY) and Cynthia Lummis (WY) are also vocal supporters of the bill. Democrats and a handful of Republicans previously sent the bill to failure over concerns of conflicts of interest and insider dealing, a topic upon which most legislators on Capitol Hill are intimately familiar. The humor is not lost on cynics over the name "GENIUS" in the bill, as Senate IQs are generally well below what would be considered higher intellectual levels.

The usual talk about bitcoin breaking further upwards towards $200,000 and beyond has been tamped down as regulations on what was originally hailed as "new money" or "21st century gold" move bitcoin and all the other garbage in the crypto-universe closer to the mainstream. Wall Street loves it, which is, in itself, a good reason to dis-engage from speculation on imaginary digital currencies.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 98.84; last week: 101.25

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30

Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43

Gold suffered a massive markdown in the futures and at spot. Futures fell by nearly $125 on the week, the result of Wall Street's mood change from bearish behavior to a renewed bullish outlook. If interest rates remain high and the U.S. economy perks up, gold is likely to stagnate if not decline further.

The opposite might be said of silver, which lost just 45 cents on the week, a minuscule decline compared to gold, sending the gold:silver ratio below 100 and towards something more realistic. Because of its properties as an industrial metal as opposed to gold's strictly monetary function, silver might gain as gold declines over coming months.

This is not to say that either metal is overvalued. It's more a perception that the U.S. dollar will regain strength as the Trump agenda begins to be clarified and gradually implemented. It would not be a stretch of imagination to see gold at $3000 and silver at $38.50, implying a GSR in a range of 76-79. While that's still degrees of magnitude higher than historical precedents of 12 to 16, it is worthy of consideration. Silver has been the most undervalued commodity for decades, though re-industrialization on a global level might change the math and the attitude in the futures market. A return of silver as a medium of exchange being highly unlikely, it remains a relatively inexpensive means of storing value.

While there was recently a mini-rush into gold at the retail level, recent price fluctuations may have put the kibosh on projections for $4000 or even $5000 gold over the near term. Central bank buying - or the lack thereof - will tell the true story of where gold's price is headed. Silver seems headed on its own path.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.21	43.49	39.77	39.63
1 oz silver bar:	38.00	44.95	40.40	40.00
1 oz gold coin:	3,348.90	3,457.99	3,404.60	3,413.78
1 oz gold bar:	3,335.78	3,410.32	3,367.75	3,368.62

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell sharply through the week, to $39.95, a $1.87 decline from the May 11 price of $41.82 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Seeing is believing, and passive investors will be seeing some healthy gains in their portfolios shortly. Playing along with any narrative du jour is looking like the new normal, good, bad, or otherwise.

At the Close, Friday, May 16, 2025:
Dow: 42,654.74, +331.99 (+0.78%)
NASDAQ: 19,211.10, +98.78 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 5,958.38, +41.45 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 19,934.06, +149.37 (+0.75%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1,405.36 (+3.41%)
NASDAQ: +1,282.18 (+7.15%)
S&P 500: +298.47 (+5.27%)
NYSE Composite: +614.86 (+3.18%)
Dow Transports: +1119.01 (+7.97%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Buy-and-Hold and Buy-the-Dip Have Been Enormously Profitable; May Become Even Better as Trump Upends Global Commerce

Thanks to Monday's massive melt-up, the major indices are on track for a large winner for the week.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow Industrials were ahead by 1,073 points (2.60%). NASDAQ has put on a massive 6.60% gain, up 1,183 points. The S&P 500 is up a more modest 4.54%, or 257. points. The NYSE Composite is up 457 points, lagging the field with a 2.41% gain.

While these indices have, over the past six weeks (since April 2, "Liberation Day"), moved from beneath their 50 and 200-day moving averages to above them, excepting the Dow, which is still in between, they remain off their all-time highs. That shouldn't be a problem for most investors, who are likely more relieved that their 15-25% portfolio losses are now more along the lines of 2-5% lower and at just about break even year-to-date.

Even better, long term investors, especially since the GFC crash that bottomed in March 2009 (coincidentally, right around the time bitcoin became a "thing"), have benefitted from buy-and-hold or buy-the-dip strategies, with passive investors multiples higher off lows on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P of roughly 7,200, 1,400, and 750 on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P, respectively.

Passive investors who bought the bottom in 2009 up on average eight-fold. A hypothetical $10,000 invested in March 2009 would be worth somewhere in the range of $80,000 today. A person contemplating retirement at 50 years of age in 2009 with 100,000 invested, might have already taken the plunge at 62 (2021), riding the wave through the pandemic scare with a nest egg of around $800,000 today.

Whether or not that's enough to retire on is largely a choice of lifestyle. A 5% annual drawdown of $40,000 a year, or $3,333 per month, certainly would provide more than enough to survive and thrive in the golden years, and that's before adding in Social Security remittances. By comparison, gold is up just more than 80% since the GFC.

It's obvious that the Wall Street casino has made millionaires galore out of the extremely patient cohort of passive investors. Despite the gloom-and doom clanging from goldbugs and non-believers, simply going with the flow has been a winning strategy. Buyers of dips have fared even better.

An argument can be made that lower purchasing power of the US dollar over the years has eroded the value of stock and bond portfolios, but, asset inflation being the forerunner of consumer price inflation, an eight-fold increase in asset value easily more than offsets the rampaging inflation of 2021-2023. Those harmed the most by declining purchasing power are in the lower classes, those who don't own stocks and have not participated in some of the best consecutive years of gains in stocks, ever.

President Trump's promise of an American "golden age" will have to pull the middle and lower classes higher with better, higher-paying jobs in a revitalized U.S. economy. Re-shoring of industries will have to play a large role if Trump's promise is to be realized.

Long story short, America's economy, while somewhat unbalanced, favoring asset allocators over laborers, remains the envy of the world and may become even more dominant in years to come.

An exemplar of the change in attitude concerning America's fortunes can be seen in the recent collapse of the gold price, which is being hammered lower again today, dropping another $60-80, down as low as $3,156 this morning. Despite being up 20% year-to-date, gold has lost nearly half of that gain in just the past week. There was every indication - especially with the gold:silver ratio over 100 - that gold had gotten ahead of itself, the rumors of a new gold-backed BRICS+ currency not withstanding. Trump has countered any BRICS+ aspirations with an unexpected surge of global deal-making and probably never before seen.

Gold may turn in the second half of the year from the best asset to the worst. Silver should benefit from gold's short-term demise with the GSR returning to somewhat more normal levels because of its use as an industrial metal over that of a monetary one. Industrialization on a scale that the Trump approach is promoting will require huge amounts of silver, copper and other raw materials, keeping their prices stable, if not raising them substantially.

In less than four months since his inauguration, President Trump has overturned the tables of global trade and he's only just begun. The next three to four years and beyond may be the most prosperous ever seen in the history of America, which turns 300 year old in just over a year from now.

With markets set to open in minutes, futures are higher. Dow futures: +120; NASDAQ: +40; S&P: +14. Buy and hold is here to stay.

At the Close, Thursday, May 15, 2025:
Dow: 42,322.75, +271.69 (+0.65%)
NASDAQ: 19,112.32, -34.49 (-0.18%)
S&P 500: 5,916.93, +24.35 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 19,784.69, +156.23 (+0.80%)

Deflationary Trends Dominate Data Drop; PPI Checks in a -0.5% MOM, Lowest in 5 Years; Walmart Warns on Revenue Miss

Wednesday produced another split decision on equity markets with the Dow and NYSE Composite lower and the NASDAQ and S&P higher, albeit only slightly.

Traders were possibly waiting on Thursday's pre-market data dump and earnings from Walmart (WMT).

Of the multiple releases at 8:30 am ET, the most stunning was April PPI, which registered a -0.5% month-on-month, the lowest such reading since April 2020, at the onset of the spamdemic.

As Money Daily has been inferring for months, the chorus of cheerleaders for Fed rate cuts are likely going to be singing the wrong tune. Rather than inflation and recession harming the economy, it's dis-inflation or deflation that will emerge as the main threat later this year, if not already in play.

A negative on the PPI and stalled out CPI for April signal that between DOGE efforts in Washington, deportations, tariff trauma, and OPEC+ production cuts, prices for everything from Pop-tarts to retail gasoline are falling, pretty much a natural effect after years of official Washington's mismanagement.

Along with the PPI showing up harshly deflationary, April Retail Sales were flat, rising just 0.1% over the month. If consumers aren't expanding their spending - they're broke, using credit cards to buy food - there's no chance for any inflation, either at the producer level, as pricing power evaporates, or at the consumer point.

Initial jobless claims came in the same as last week, with 229,000 applying for benefits.

The NY Fed Manufacturing Index fell again, to -9.2 from -8.1 last reading. The Philly Fed was wildly improved, at -4, from -26.4 in the prior period.

The market awaits April readings on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

Walmart beat its earnings forecast but missed on revenue in the first quarter for the first time in five years. The company blamed tariffs (which haven't been fully implemented yet) as the cause for the revenue miss.

WTI crude oil is down sharply after the EIA announced a "surprise" inventory build. The price of a barrel of light, sweet crude is hovering around $61 after closing out yesterday in New York at $63.15.

With all the confusion associated with Trump making multiple deals in the Middle East and data showing something along the lines of stag-deflation, stock futures are sharply lower. Dow futures, -142, NASDAQ futures, -102, S&P futures, -21.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 14, 2025:
Dow: 42,051.06, -89.37 (-0.21%)
NASDAQ: 19,146.81, +136.72 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: 5,892.58, +6.03 (+0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 19,628.46, -94.91 (-0.48%)

Stocks Pause After Impressive Three Weeks; Oil's Rise Contrary to Recent Trends; Trump, Tech Titans Making Strides in Middle East

As trading began on Wednesday, the most noticeable change was in gold, sent lower by more than $60 in the hour before the bell ($3,180).

Stocks, after a split decision on Tuesday, opened trading with a marginally positive bias. There was not much for traders to digest heading into the middle of the week. Thursday will be more impactful with earnings releases for Cisco (CSCO) after the close Wednesday and John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Alibaba (BABA), and Birkenstock (BIRK) reporting Thursday morning.

Also on Thursday, April PPI, reports on regional economic activity from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, April capacity utilization, industrial production, retail sales, and the weekly unemployment report of initial and continuing claims.

With President Trump in the Middle East and the highly-anticipated possible/not probable meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukraine proxy Zelensky or their respective representatives in Turkey, even the geo-political scene is on hold for the day.

Stocks are showing a slight negative trend in Europe.

Stocks have put together a fairly impressive rally over the past three weeks, erasing year-to-date losses on all the major indices. The NASDAQ has gained massively, up 20% since April 21. With Trump and his entourage of tech moguls hobnobbing in Saudi Arabia, Mag7 and chip stocks have been moving higher.

Wednesday offers a solid opportunity for traders to stake out new positions at somewhat lower prices. Sector rotation has developed out of defensives into more speculative stocks. Coinbase (COIN), after the Tuesday announcement that the company was being added to the S&P 500 on May 19, has responded with a nearly 30-point rise. The cryptocurrency exchange will replace Discover Financial (DFS), which is being acquired by Capital One (COF), the deal expected to close within the next two to four months.

Bitcoin, of which Coinbase holds a significant amount in its treasury, has not responded in any noticeable manner, stuck in a range between $102,000 and $105,000.

WTI crude oil, which has gained more than $5 - from $58 to above $63 - in just the past week, may be in a technical phase. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report (due at 10:30 am ET, could shed more light on the wheres and whys of oil's recent advance. In the main, consideration that the U.S. - and possibly Europe - is not headed for a recession could be fueling the recent positive bias.

Stocks are not exactly in "limbo" today, but there does not seem to be much in the way of actionable news or data.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 13, 2025:
Dow: 42,140.43, -269.67 (-0.64%)
NASDAQ: 19,010.08, +301.74 (+1.61%)
S&P 500: 5,886.55, +42.36 (+0.72%)
NYSE Composite: 19,723.38, +11.83 (+0.06%)

Is the Bottom In or Was Monday's Rally a Bear Market Bump?; CPI Lowest in Four Years; Gold Lower, Crude Oil Soaring

The jury is still out.

Whether Monday's smashing rally was a sure sign that the bottom for stocks is "in" or the temporary China-USA trade deal worked out over the weekend ignited a wicked bear market rally.

Signs seem to be leaning toward the positive as Donald Trump reshapes the economic landscape. Additionally, Tuesday's reading on April CPI saw consumer prices rise at their slowest pace since February, 2021, increasing 2.3% over the prior year and up just 0.2% for the month.

Monday's face-ripping rally had other effects, sending gold to its lowest level in two weeks, dropping close to $3,200 as the day wore on.

Futures are mixed heading toward Tuesday's opening bell. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are off 180 points, S&P futures are flat-lining and NASDAQ futures are up 40.

It's no longer wait-and-see for many eager investors, judging by the outsized gains on the NASDAQ.

At the Close, Monday, May 12, 2025:
Dow: 42,410.10, +1,160.72 (+2.81%)
NASDAQ: 18,708.34, +779.43 (+4.35%)
S&P 500: 5,844.19, +184.28 (+3.26%)
NYSE Composite: 19,711.55, +392.35 (+2.03%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Dullest Week of the Year Comes as Welcome Relief; Bitcoin Powers Past $100,000; Trade and Tariff Talk Toned Down

The week just past was about the calmest markets have been this year. Stocks barely budged on a weekly basis. Treasuries stagnated, the largest move was up 8 basis points on 5-year notes. The short end of the curve, from one month out to six months, was flat as a pancake, primarily because the Fed held steady on the federal funds target rate at the FOMC meeting mid-week.

While Jerome Powell may become infamous for his "I don't see the stag or the flation," comment, he's managed to produce (with ample assistance from the Trump administration) a stagnant U.S. economy with almost no inflation, which may be the best that consumers can expect and a welcome relief from wild gyrations of the past four-plus years.

A break in the action is more than likely "a good thing," as Martha Stewart might quip. Summer is upon us and admittedly, plenty of people are worn out from the politics, the bickering, the questioning and the roller coaster ride since 2020. Take a deep breath and relax.

Other than bitcoin vaulting over $100,000, nothing much happened. Unless one wants to make points over Trump's trade deal with the UK - all $148 billion of it of it - or the first American pope, embrace the calm.

Stocks

Though it didn't seem like it, all the major averages finished lower on a weekly basis. It was a close call, the worst of it on the S&P 500, which ended down 26.76 points (-0.47%).

Agree with it or not, bear market conditions persist. The Dow is down the least, -8.36% from its December 4 high (45,014.04). The S&P peaked at 6,144.15 on February 19 and is down 8.88% since. The NASDAQ is off 11.13% from its peak of 20,173.89 on December 16 of last year with a ton of overhead resistance just beyond 20,000. Call that a correction or whatever Wall Street spin is appropriate, but the bearish slant of the charts is plain to see.

Markets got a 90-day reprieve from Trump on a tariff pause while deals are being worked out, but more than a month has passed already and the first actual effects will not be known until late summer at the earliest.

Earnings reports are beginning to wind down, with Cisco, Applied Materials, Alibaba, and Walmart the most significant among those reporting in the coming week.

Monday: (before open) NRG (NRG), FOX (FOXA), Sportradar (SRAD), Chegg (CHGG); (after close) Nuscale (SMR), Hertz (HTZ), Blink (BLNK), Petrobras (PBR)

Tuesday: (before open) JD.com (JD), Honda (HMC), Under Armour (UAA), Landstar (LSTR); (after close) SurgePays (SURG), Kindercare (KLC), Karman Space & Defense (KRMN)

Wednesday: (before open) Tencent (TCEHY), Ars Pharma (SPRY); (after close) Boot Barn (BOOT), Cisco (CSCO), Jack in the Box (JACK)

Thursday: (before open) John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Alibaba (BABA), Birkenstock (BIRK); (after close) Cava (CAVA), Galactic (SPCE), Applied Materials (AMAT)

Friday: (before open) Mastech Digital (MSHH), Codere (CDRO).

Since they did what everybody thought they would do - nothing - the Federal Reserve's May 5-6 FOMC meeting was really kind of a bust. The initial reaction was a gain of 20 points on the S&P and a rise early Thursday, but after peaking at 5,718, the 500 ended the week at 5,659. The Fed had nearly nothing to do with any moves in the market.

April CPI will be reported Tuesday before the bell. The mortgage purchase index and the weekly EIA report on oil and distillates are on tap for Wednesday.

Thursday is jam-packed with April PPI, reports on regional economic activity from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, capacity utilization, industrial production, April retail sales and the weekly unemployment report of initial and continuing claims.

Friday brings reports on housing starts, building permits, import prices and the University of Michigan's monthly survey of consumer sentiment.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/04/2025	4.36	4.35	4.36	4.28	4.25	4.14	3.86
04/11/2025	4.37	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.21	4.04
04/17/2025	4.36	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.22	3.99
04/25/2025	4.34	4.37	4.36	4.32	4.32	4.22	3.95
05/02/2025	4.38	4.36	4.34	4.33	4.41	4.26	4.00
05/09/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.34	4.40	4.28	4.05

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/04/2025	3.68	3.66	3.72	3.84	4.01	4.44	4.41
04/11/2025	3.96	3.98	4.15	4.32	4.48	4.91	4.85
04/17/2025	3.81	3.82	3.95	4.13	4.34	4.82	4.80
04/25/2025	3.74	3.76	3.88	4.06	4.29	4.75	4.74
05/02/2025	3.83	3.82	3.92	4.11	4.33	4.81	4.79
05/09/2025	3.88	3.85	4.00	4.18	4.37	4.86	4.83

Spreads were higher this week, signaling continued stress in the treasury market. Demand for U.S. dollars continues to wane and Trump's tariff gambit isn't help the situation one bit. If anything, more foreign buyers are seeking out bi-lateral trade deals without the need of treasuries and some already employing gold reserves.

2s-10s are +49 basis points and have been at that level or higher since just after the April 2nd "Liberation Day" that sent all dollar-denominated assets on a collision course with reality. Full spectrum jumped from +5 to +38 from 4/4 to 4/11 and hit a new high this week at +46.

The treasury yield curve is about as flat as its ever been, with the low in the middle - 3.85% on 3-year notes - and the 20-year just 0.03 higher than the 30, at 4.86. The difficulty of making money as a lender with spreads about just one percent cannot be understated. There will be casualties. It's just a matter of time.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at a price of $61.06, versus last Friday's $58.38, which was the lowest level since February 5, 2021 ($56.85). Oil's gain on the week appears to stem from an oversold condition. Given that there was no news on which to hang a rally, this week's bump to the upside should be considered little more than a dead cat bounce off extreme lows.

Speculators in the futures market probably sensed the time was right for a bear market rally and jumped into fray feet first. Though the gain was close to $3, there's nothing supporting WTI crude at any price above $60. Expect to see it back down into the mid-50s in short order.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.10, down four cents from last week. Yahoo Finance believes the national average will be below $3.00 this summer, as inventories stabilize, OPEC production hikes take hold, and refinery maintenance has been mostly completed. The inevitable re-alignment with the oil price may have finally begun.

Gas prices continued to fluctuate across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.81, though that is up eight cents on the week and likely caused by the state's incessant taxation of anything and everything touched by consumers. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.61, with Oklahoma, next-cheapest in the nation at $2.64, edging out Louisiana ($2.66) by just two cents. South Carolina checked in at 2.69. Tennessee, Arkansas (2.70), Alabama ($2.71) and Tennessee ($2.72) round out the lows in the Southeast. With North Carolina at $2.81, Georgia at $2.86 and Florida dropping 18 cents to $2.90, the entire region is a driver's dream, all below $3.00.

Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.28) and Maryland ($3.13), New England and East coast states all range between $2.86 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont).

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price slightly higher than last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest. Outside of Indiana ($3.07) and Michigan ($3.05), the entire region is sub-$3.00, from Ohio and Kentucky to the Dakotas.

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.24. Oregon ($3.86) and Nevada ($3.85) continue seeing stable prices as well. Arizona appears headed for sub-$3.00, in at $3.26, though neighboring New Mexico is a relative bargain at $2.75. Idaho and neighboring Utah are at $3.24 and $3.25, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in more states this week, with at least 28 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are beginning to bear fruit for American drivers.

Bitcoin

This week: $104,416.70
Last week: $95,497.28
2 weeks ago: $93,927.10
6 months ago: $88,470.49
One year ago: $61,151.16
Five years ago: $9,383.02

On Thursday, Bitcoin bounded over $100,00 for the first time since February 4, the timing of which was suspect as the quick run-up from $97,000 to $103,000 happened on Thursday, just as Democrats, joined by three Republicans in the Senate kept the GENIUS act - which would codify regulations regarding stablecoins and other crypto-related issues such as security and safeguards against insider trading and money laundering - from advancing for a full senate vote.

Democrats scoffed that the other side made last-minute changes that members were unable to scrutinize. They also pointed fingers at President Trump, who has vested interests in various crypto ventures. Nonetheless, bitcoin soared, as critics and pundits expect the issues to be ironed out and the bill presented again shortly, as early as the coming week and passage assured. Whether that happens to be wishful thinking or actual fact remains to be seen. The opposing sides appear to have some distance between them.

The usual talk about bitcoin breaking further upwards towards $200,000 and beyond was the dominant theme once the vapor-coin ripped through the psychological barrier at $100,000, proof that some people are prone to believe in fairy tales, unicorns and flying pigs.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 101.25; last week: 100.91

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10

Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88

Both gold and silver rebounded over the course of the week, showing tremendous resilience against the usual suppression tactics, though the idea that bitcoin would gain while gold and silver declined makes little sense in the larger scheme of protecting one's wealth against the predations of governments and central bankers.

Even though gold pulled back from $3,500 recently, arguments against holding, hoarding, or otherwise accumulating gold and/or silver are lacking. The price has only one direction, especially with governments working hard to devalue the dollar, yen, euro, pound, yuan, and franc.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.00	49.90	40.76	39.75
1 oz silver bar:	39.00	50.12	43.77	42.98
1 oz gold coin:	3,460.10	3,573.20	3,497.54	3,475.24
1 oz gold bar:	3,463.36	3,523.20	3,491.29	3,487.18

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through the week, to $41.82, a $1.34 advance from the May 4 price of $40.48 per troy ounce.

Premia remain high. Gold and silver continue to hold recent gains quite well despite lack of enthusiasm from the general public. Central banks have been in the driver's seat since the end of 2022. In particular, gold has reached high levels so quickly, retail buyers may be reluctant to dive in at these prices. Silver is at bargain basement levels, vis-a-vis the gold:silver ratio remaining over 100, but without the whale-like impact of central bank buyers, retail level purchasing doesn't move the needle.

Additionally, a color of small-time silver stackers are discouraged at the metal's lack of explosiveness and may be looking for even lower entry points. Whether silver declines back into the 20s or not, buying when the GSR is multiples of the historic ratio seems to be a total no-brainer. There's no other way to put it. The silver price has probably more to do with its industrial uses than as a monetary metal. By dousing the advance of the "green wave" and with the possibility of a global recession still on a back burner, there might be some virtue to holding off on silver presently, but, there isn't much room for error in taking such a position.

From the perspective of a long-term chart back to the bottom near the end of 2022, silver is in a channel that suggests further advances. A pullback to $29.65 might be considered a reasonable expectation, but such a move might also be the result of a protracted global recession, at which point all dollar-denominated assets will drop. At least with silver, if it's in hand, you own it, which is, after all, the main purpose from a monetary standpoint.

Judging by prices on eBay at at online retailers, there is no shortage of small denominations of both metals available, nor is there a shortage of willing buyers at record or near-record prices. As limited as the public may be in terms of market depth, most of the skepticism is lost on buyers once they begin to explore their options. Some degree of FOMO (fear of missing out) cannot be discounted either. Retail buyers in the physical space increasingly do not consider COMEX or spot values valid and are letting the market set prices, as it should be.

WEEKEND WRAP

Investing shouldn't be exciting. It should be disciplined and reasonable. What purports to be a free, open, fair market in stocks is, in reality, anything but. Stocks are ruled by algorithms, computers, big money, and headlines. The preferred place to put money at this juncture is in precious metals, that is, until the real estate market comes back to earth, which is beginning to happen in many metro markets. The global asset bubble is not fully resistant to pinpricks.

At the Close, Friday, May 9, 2025:
Dow: 41,249.38, -119.07 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 17,928.92, +0.78 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 5,659.91, -4.03 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 19,319.20, +5.02 (+0.03%)

For the Week:
Dow: -68.05, (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: -48.81 (-0.27%)
S&P 500: -26.76 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: -67.48 (-0.35%)
Dow Transports: -37.22 (-0.26%)