Markets Stall as Ukraine Talks Yield Nothing Substantive; President's Spending Bill Reconsidered in House; Home Depot Rises on Earnings Miss

Stocks took the path of least resistance on Monday, rising slightly in a dull, pointless session.

There was little excitement over President Trump's two-hour phone call with Russia's President Putin, even though both participants expressed positive sentiments. The fact of the matter is that neither of the three-sided coin that is the U.S., Russia, and the Ukraine have flipped their positions.

Russia maintains its positions from 2024, insisting negotiations focus on root causes, adding that the four partially-captured regions belong to Russia along with Crimea.

Contacted after the Trump-Putin call, Ukraine's de facto leader, Zelenskyy, reiterated that the besieged country would not cede territory to Russia.

For its part, the U.S. continues to fund Ukraine, deliver arms and provide intelligence.

Despite the happy talk, nothing has been accomplished in a series of false starts. No side seems capable of making concessions, which is perfectly understandable from the Russian angle, since they are winning the war on the ground. The conflict will likely continue until Russia accomplishes its well-defined goals and takes the four oblasts that are officially part of Russia, secures the Crimean peninsula and ousts Kiev's leadership.

Even though there seems to be a concerted effort toward a non-military solution, nothing of substance is being achieved. Russia has likely prepared a summer offensive, holding off presently until all sides retreat from negotiations. The war will continue as it serves all involved - plus most of Europe - politically.

To Wall Street, Ukraine is a back-burner issue. Developments have little, if any, impact.

In the Senate, the GENIUS Act, regulating stablecoins, has moved out of committee and towards a cloture vote by the full Senate. It would need a 60-vote majority to go to the floor for final passage. At this point, amendments can be considered. Being hailed as a necessary step to safeguard users of stablecoins (pegged to the U.S. dollar), there isn't much meat on the bones of the bill.

Essentially, stablecoin issuers will also be held to bank-like standards regarding anti money-laundering requirements, sanctions compliance, and requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act, so, nothing really new, other than the usual grandstanding by both parties, acting like the bill is necessary. Mostly, it allows congress to erect another means of moving money and another shield against scrutiny by the public in its endless looting of U.S. taxpayers.

Now that stocks have recovered all of the losses from the tariff trauma, the next leg higher figures to face some difficulty. It should be noted that all of the major indices had backed off from previous highs prior to April 2nd's tariff announcement. Trump has been and will be used by the press as a scapegoat for any further market declines, should any occur. Since it's the business of Wall Street to continue moving stock prices higher, there may not be the need for any excuses.

Case in point is this morning's earnings release from Home Depot (HD). The home-improvement retailer reported higher revenue - up 9.4% year over year. However, earnings per share declined nearly five percent to $3.45, missing the $3.59 estimate. Those results imply an unhealthy margin squeeze, taking in more money but producing less profit.

Pre-market, shares of Home Depot are rising, up more than two percent, proving, yet again, nothing matters in this market other than perception and the ability of big money to dominate trading. Ring-a-ding-ding.

With little else to base trading upon, expect some flattening out in Tuesday's session, possibly even losses. The 10-year treasury note yielded more than 4.5% for a brief period on Monday. As soon as it was tamped down below that level - around noon - stocks began to churn a little higher. Markets are stalled out until something breaks in one direction or the other. Algorithmic trading relying on headlines needs something more than the usual status quo to make headway.

An hour before the opening bell, futures are relatively flat. Dow futures are -17; S&P futures are -14; NASDAQ futures, -83.

Gold is moving higher, having found a base around $3,200. Silver is reacting as well, at $32.75 on the COMEX. WTI crude oil is holding steady at $62 per barrel, a level unlikely to hold for long as OPEC heads for production ramps in June.

U.S. government debt continues to grow unabated as the House attempts to move forward with the President's outline for fiscal 2026 spending plans, which include an estimated $1.5 trillion deficit. Nothing has changed except a few of the players; more noise-making from Capitol Hill forthcoming.

At the Close, Monday, May 19, 2025:
Dow: 42,792.07, +137.33 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 19,215.46, +4.36 (+0.02%)
S&P 500: 5,963.60, +5.22 (+0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 19,975.09, +41.03 (+0.21%)