BLS April Jobs: +177,000; Dow, S&P Riding 8-Day Winning Streak; NASDAQ Up 6 of Last 8 Sessions; Gold WTI Crude Oil Lower

Recently, volatility and uncertainty over the condition of tariffs on most nations exporting to the U.S., but especially China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, have played havoc on stocks, sending them hurtling lower after President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2, then rebounding after the president announced a 90-day pause and since bouncing hither and fro.

Most of that seems to be fading, the major indices having, as of this week, regained all the earlier losses and looking for impetus to trade higher, possibly from earnings reports, improved conditions with China, or other economic news.

Being the first Friday of the month, the BLS dutifully released its monthly Non-farm Payroll report, which showed the U.S. had gained 177,000 jobs in the month of April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. So much for the recession argument and hopes for a cut to the federal funds target rate next week at the Fed's FOMC meeting (May 6-7).

Despite Wednesday's minor trifling over the initial first quarter 2025 GDP estimate of -0.3%, markets have returned to a positive tilt, as Trump's policies begin taking hold on the general economy. Between government layoffs, firings, and other employment separations, including more than 70,000 bureaucrats taking the administration up on early retirement, deportations of criminal elements from foreign countries, and the beginnings of some trade deals emerging, there seems to be improved optimism overwhelming the waves of fear and uncertainty that gripped markets in April.

Among the casualties during the last two weeks of improved sentiment are gold and oil. The price of gold had reached a record just beyond $3,500 on April 21. Yesterday, it had dropped as low as $3,212, and is gaining Friday morning, back to around $3,265, but with the lifting of the cloud of uncertainty, there is at least some relief in COMEX markets and at retail shops from the torrid run gold has had since November 2022, roughly doubling in value in about 30 months' time. Silver had also performed well, nearly doubling over a similar time period from around $18 to as high as $35 recently. Being an industrial metal, silver is holding its own, trading around $32.75 on the COMEX.

WTI crude oil hit a low of $56.53 on Thursday, May 1, the lowest price since February, 2021, which, coincidentally is just after Joe "Brandon Bribem" Biden was inaugurated. Between Trump's "drill, baby, drill," messaging and OPEC recently raising production limits, oil's price is in a bear market and probably will head even lower, another benefit for the U.S. economy.

Apple and Amazon reported Thursday after the bell, both with some disappointment, though the market will likely shrug off any deleterious effects.

Stock futures had been positive but drifting lower prior to the jobs announcement, and really took off when the numbers were released. At 9:00 am ET, Dow futures: +430; NASDAQ futures: +218; S&P futures, +63.

Stocks are looking to close out another positive week. Through Thursday's close, the Dow was up 639 points, NASDAQ, plus 327, and the S&P 78 points to the good.

Things are looking up, especially with the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The March Issue of IdleGuy.com has a number of horse-related features including picks for the nine stakes races at Churchill Downs, including the Kentucky Derby.

At the Close, Thursday, May 1, 2024:
Dow: 40,752.96, +83.60 (+0.21%)
NASDAQ: 17,710.74, +264.40 (+1.52%)
S&P 500: 5,604.14, +35.08 (+0.63%)
NYSE Composite: 19,049.84, -64.39 (-0.34%)