The downgrade of U.S. debt by Moody's overhung all markets. Less reported was Moody's Monday downgrade of the banks which benefit from association with the U.S. government, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. Moody's lowered deposit ratings, senior unsecured debt, and counter-party risk assessments for key subsidiaries and branches of the banks to Aa2 from Aa1.
Bitcoin and precious metals were the main beneficiaries of paper assets' decline, bitcoin hitting a record high above 111,000, gold topping $3,350 and silver up above $33.
Progress in foreign affairs stalled, with negotiations concerning Russia, Ukraine and Israel/Gaza and Iran seemingly going nowhere.
On the upside, President Trump's "big beautiful bill" passed the House by the slimmest of margins, one vote. Passage of the continuing resolution in the Senate is less assured, with several Republicans senators, including Kentucky's Rand Paul, either in opposition or expressing significant doubts. The bill, while it keeps Trump's 2017 tax cuts intact, increases defense and border security spending and is projected to add another $2 trillion in fiscal 2026 to the nation's already burgeoning debt, which will exceed $37 trillion by the middle of June.
Stocks
On Friday, after President Trump messaged on his social media platform, truth.com, that Europe would be facing a 50% tariff and Apple a 25% tariff on iPhones manufactured outside the United States, equity markets didn't exactly crash as futures had presaged, but they did not go green either after a week filled with nagging irritations from a variety of sources.
Tech stocks took a hit during the week, with semis down 4.5%. Banks were also on the receiving end of the selling, with the financial sector down 4.1%. Overall, the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ were each down more than two percent on the week. Dow Transports dropped the most, down 4.11%.
The week ahead will be highlighted by Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday, Thursday's second estimate of U.S. Q1 GDP growth, and April core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - widely seen as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
There are still companies reporting first quarter earnings, including:
Tuesday: (before open) AutoZone (AZO), Scotiabank (BNS); (after close) Semtech (SMTC), Box (BOX)
Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Macy's (M), Bank of Montreal (BMO); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM)
Thursday: (before open) Best Buy (BBY), Foot Locker (FL), Hormel Foods ((HRL), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Costco (COST), Dell (DELL), Gap Inc. (GAP), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Friday: (before open) Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Canopy Growth (CGC).
Of interest will be reports from Dick's Sporting Goods, and Foot Locker, the shoe retailer being acquired by Dick's.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 04/17/2025 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.22 | 3.99 |
| 04/25/2025 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.32 | 4.22 | 3.95 |
| 05/02/2025 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.33 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 4.00 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 4.40 | 4.28 | 4.05 |
| 05/16/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.13 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.15 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 04/17/2025 | 3.81 | 3.82 | 3.95 | 4.13 | 4.34 | 4.82 | 4.80 |
| 04/25/2025 | 3.74 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 4.06 | 4.29 | 4.75 | 4.74 |
| 05/02/2025 | 3.83 | 3.82 | 3.92 | 4.11 | 4.33 | 4.81 | 4.79 |
| 05/09/2025 | 3.88 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.18 | 4.37 | 4.86 | 4.83 |
| 05/16/2025 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 4.06 | 4.24 | 4.43 | 4.92 | 4.89 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.00 | 3.96 | 4.08 | 4.29 | 4.51 | 5.03 | 5.04 |
Rather than providing a backstop for falling equities, treasuries instead were sold off during the week, with interest rates rising the most on the longest durations. The 30-year bond gained a smashing 15 basis points (0.15%), approaching levels last seen in 2007. Similarly, the benchmark 10-year note was being shedded, gaining 8 basis points in yield over the course of the week.
With the 2-year note only up 0.02, the spread on 2s-10s widened to 51, as full spectrum (30-days out to 30-years) spread widened most of all, to +68, the widest since Money Daily began tracking, 18 months ago.
Spreads between junk (Baa) and High Yield corporate bonds and treasuries are still historically low, but bear watching. It appears that treasuries themselves are under assault, with the gap between them and corporates being squeezed, the inference being that treasuries themselves may no longer be considered "risk-free", with corporate high yields preferred.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at $61.76, down from the prior Friday reading of $62.49. The price of oil remains higher than fundamentals suggest, and further production raises by OPEC countries may be forthcoming. As it is, this level is somewhat appealing to both producers and consumers, providing profit for the former and lower prices for the latter.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.15, down a couple of cents from last week, and the lowest price over a Memorial Day weekend since 2020.
The high price remained the province of California at $4.81, down seven cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.63. The only other state reporting a fuel price under $2.70 is Louisiana ($2.67). The remainder of the Southeastern states - including Oklahoma and Texas - range from Alabama at $2.71 and South Carolina at $2.72, to the high end of North Carolina ($2.84) and Georgia ($2.88). Florida remained above $3.00, at $3.04.
The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.29). New England and East coast states all range between $2.89 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (New York). Prices were pretty stable compared to the prior week.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price a nickel higher than last week. Kentucky is the lowest in the region, at $2.82, followed by Kansas and Missouri ($2.89). Indiana drivers are paying $3.23. Similarly, Michigan's prices rose from $3.18 last week to $3.22 currently. The rest of the Midwest ranges from $2.90 (North Dakota) to $3.05 (Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota).
Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, eight cents higher than last week, at at $4.39. Oregon ($3.99) was higher this week, while Nevada ($3.84) was a nickel lower. Arizona ($3.35) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain at $2.86. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.25 and $3.23, respectively.
Sub-$3.00 gas is found in one fewer state this week than last, with just 20 hitting the mark. Prospects of lower gas prices for American drivers remain hopeful.
Bitcoin
This week: $107,017.20
Last week: $103,888.10
2 weeks ago: $104,416.70
6 months ago: $94,322.04
One year ago: $67,914.83
Five years ago: $9,669.13
Bitcoin ramped above $111,000 during the week, setting yet another record high. The response by bitcoin to trouble in risk assets (stocks) and fixed income paper (treasuries and corporate bonds) was echoed by similar moves in precious metals. In some people's minds, bitcoin is as good a safe haven as gold and silver, the split being somewhat generational, with Boomers preferring the metals and GenX and GenZ types going with crypto. Millennials are seemingly split between the two.
On Wednesday, May 21, a motion to proceed passed in the U.S. Senate, 69-31, moving the GENIUS Act closer to a vote on final passage, which is expected following Congress’ Memorial Day recess. The vote clears the way for the legislation to move to full debate on the Senate floor. The bill would place safeguards and regulations on stablecoins and is being promoted as a positive development for U.S. dollar interests.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 99.81; last week: 98.84
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70
Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Silver price 5/23: $33.64
Gold and silver each rebounded sharply as risk appeared to be re-emerging. Between trade issues, the U.S. budgetary issues of excessive debt and runaway spending, and geo-politics (Ukraine, Middle East), precious metals are increasingly seen as safe havens. With Japan's 30, 40, and 50-year bonds at historic highs (over 3%) and U.S. treasuries being increasingly shunned (especially by BRICS-related central banks), gold, which will become a Tier-1 asset for U.S. banks in a little more than a month (July 1), seems a natural fit.
Silver will respond, at some point, to the absurdly high gold:silver ratio which continues to hover around 100. Since gold continues to rise, it could be quite some time before the silver rally ensues, though, considering the extreme price suppression and volatility in all markets, silver might take off unexpectedly. It's difficult to get a good reading on timing for silver, since the GSR has almost never been this high. The optimal approach would be to buy both, with slight favoritism toward silver.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 37.00 | 45.97 | 41.68 | 41.73 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 39.00 | 47.00 | 43.18 | 42.67 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,493.70 | 3,610.22 | 3,551.51 | 3,537.64 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,465.00 | 3,576.02 | 3,528.19 | 3,527.22 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose rapidly through the week, to $42.32, a $2.37 gain from the May 18 price of $39.95 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
As we honor our fallen veterans this Memorial Day weekend, bearing witness to the freedoms they supposedly died to protect, we, the living, should be inspired to do more while we can to return America to its former glory. The United States, while still considered a freedom-loving nation, has gradually ceded a host of individual rights to the power of the federal government, a trend, that, if continued, does not augur well for future generations.
At the Close, Friday, May 23, 2025:
Dow: 41,603.07, -256.02 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ: 18,737.21, -188.53 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 5,802.82, -39.19 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 19,534.84, -29.87 (-0.15%)
For the Week:
Dow: -1051.67 (-2.47%)
NASDAQ: -473.89 (-2.47%)
S&P 500: -155.56 (-2.61%)
NYSE Composite: -399.22 (-2.00%)
Dow Transports: -623.74 (-4.11%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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