Gold, Silver Whacked on COMEX as Nothing Changes; Fed Leaves Rates on Hold; Stocks or BRICS?

If there's anybody out there who can explain Wednesday's market action, please email Money Daily at confused@wtf?.com, because it just didn't add up and appears to have been staged.

The set-up was 2nd quarter GDP's initial estimate of the economy expanding by 3.0% and a bunch of OK earnings reports announced before the cash market opened, followed by fairly dull trading, though slightly positive across all the major indices until 2:00 pm ET, when the Fed delivered its policy statement, holding the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%. No change. Stocks went up a little bit, but as soon as Chairman Jerome Powell stepped up to the microphone at his 2:30 press conference, massive selling ensued, sending all of the indices into the red, the Dow dropping 460 points in a matter of half an hour. Once Powell moved on, stocks recovered into the close, with the NASDAQ actually finishing the session in positive territory.

Meanwhile, over at the completely fake commodity exchange known as the COMEX or CME, gold and silver got whacked, and hard. One trader mentioned that 400 million ounces of (paper) silver were moved between 8:00 am and 4:00 pm ET. Gold dropped $60 over that time span, and silver fell from $38.05 to $36.94, after it had been pushing $40 an ounce late last week.

It's obvious that there are some people who desire to see gold and silver at lower prices, but there is simply no explanation for Wednesday's extreme action in either stocks or PMs. Nothing really changed. No Fed rate cut, no surprising GDP data, no nuttin' honey!

Gold is recovering this morning, but silver remains at three-week lows. One has to appreciate the concept that keeping gold and silver cheap serves to boost the perceived popularity of the might U.S. dollar as the reserve currency par excellance. What it also does is lower pricing power of those countries that produce PMs, such as Russia, China, Peru, Mexico, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Chile, Argentina, India, and South Africa. Five of those are full BRICS members. The rest are all affiliated, so, no, there is no coincidence that the COMEX, LBMA, and the London gold and silver daily fixes all endeavor to price PMs lower whenever they can.

The blatant price-fixing by Western powers in the face of the Global South, BRICS and pretty much the rest of the world (ROW) is soon to be ending. Russia has announced that gold and silver will begin trading on their exchange at St. Petersburg (SPIMEX) later this year.

China already has their own metals bourse, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and is fitting out precious metals vaults in countries around the world for central bank storage and facilitation of trade settlements.

The main focus, for now, are vauting facilities in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia, with more to follow.

After the market closed Wednesday, Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) released second quarter results and people must like what they saw, because in pre-market trading, META is up 11% and Mister Softie is up eight percent. Mastercard (MA) also posted positive results, citing a "resilient" consumer, which, in reality should be an "in-debt-up-to-the-eyeballs" consumer. Visa (V) reported earlier this week, mouthing the same sentiment.

The way some American companies make money - charging 23-35% interest - is becoming morally repugnant.

New all-time highs are straight ahead, the perfect gift-wrapping for those end-of-month account statements. Futures are soaring. Dow, +94 points; NASDAQ, +315; S&P, +56 at 9:00 am ET.

The choices are becoming clear: buy stocks priced in Fedbux or precious metals priced in yuan, rubles, or other foreign currencies.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 30, 2024:
Dow: 44,461.28, -171.71 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 21,129.67, +31.38 (+0.15%)
S&P 500: 6,362.90, -7.96 (-0.12%)
NYSE Composite: 20,630.88, -130.68 (-0.63%)

Slowing Imports Cause 2Q GDP to Jump +3.0%; Earnings Reports Skewed by Tariff Concern; Fed Likely to Keep Rates on Hold

Following a series of second quarter earnings reports that were either short of expectations or came with lowered forward guidance, stocks slumped Tuesday, as investors measured the recent rally against the reality of corporate earnings. Some of the companies that reported poor results Monday night and Tuesday morning included Whirlpool (WHR), which finished Tuesday's session down 13 percent; Boeing (BA, -4.37%); Merck (MRK, -1.70%); Spotify (SPOT, -11.55%); United Health (UNH, -7.46%); and UPS (UPS, -10.57%).

The major indices - Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, NYSE Composite - all ended Tuesday's session on the downside.

Leading into Wednesday, the CME FedWatch shows a 97.9% probability of the FOMC keeping the federal funds target rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% when the policy decision is announced at 2:00 pm ET later today.

Prior to that (non) event, the BEA released the initial estimate of second quarter GDP, which showed the U.S. economy expanding at a rate of three percent (3.0%). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. Thus, slowing imports, due to tariff issues, actually skewed the numbers in a positive direction. In the first quarter, higher imports, as companies rushed to beat expected tariffs, caused GDP to decline by 0.5%.

Essentially, GDP has become an almost useless tool for measuring the strength of the economy, as it can be pushed in various directions by extraneous factors.

Additionally, earnings reports from Visa (V), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Teradyne (TER), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Seagate (STX), Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Wednesday (7/30): (before open) Altria (MO), Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), Harley Davidson (HOG), Etsy (ETSY) Generac (GNRC), Humana (HUM), KraftHeinz (KHC), Hershey (HSY).

Visa (V) beat estimates but issued flat guidance, sending shares down a little more than one percent in the pre-market.

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) showed declining Las Vegas revenue and has shares slipping more than three percent leading into the open.

Teradyne (TER) beat top and bottom, but guided cautiously. Nonetheless, shares have powered ahead by more than seven percent pre-market.

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) beat earnings forecasts, but is trading down four percent early Wednesday.

Seagate (STX) issued a forecast that cooled investors, sending the stock down nearly six percent in pre-market trading.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) was another that issued a less-than-enthusiastic forward outlook. The stock was down mroe than three percent, but is seen as opening flat to slightly higher.

Harley Davidson (HOG) shares are rallying on a potential deal for their finance unit, overshadowing downbeat Q2 results. The stock is up some 15 percent in the pre-market.

Humana (HUM) showed improving results and strong revenue, plans to offer early retirement to some workers and issued positive guidance, sending share higher by more than 10 percent.

KraftHeinz (KHC) topped second quarter estimates and reaffirmed forward guidance on steady U.S. demand. Shares are mostly flat before the opening bell.

Hershey (HSY) topped Q2 results, but lowered EPS forecast citing tariff pressures and is raising the price on chocolate products as cocoa prices have soared. Apparently, expensive candy bars are just what Americans want, as the stock is being bid higher by 4.5% pre-market.

With the GDP estimate based almost entirely on declining imports and the Fed almost certain to keep interest rates on hold, Wednesday's trading might not be as volatile as some had expected. Of course, a rip-your-face-off short squeeze melt-up is always a possibility.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 29, 2025:
Dow: 44,632.99, -204.57 (-0.46%)
NASDAQ: 21,098.29, -80.29 (-0.38%)
S&P 500: 6,370.86, -18.91 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 20,761.56, -59.72 (-0.29%)

Exposing Cracks in the U.S.-EU Trade Deal and Tariff Mythology; U.S.-based Whirlpool Slumps 17% on EPS Miss, Dividend Cut

On Sunday - just in time to affect markets opening Monday - U.S. President Trump and European Commission President doofus Ursula von der Leyen proudly announced, according to Trump, “the greatest trade deal ever” between the U.S. and European Union. Markets reacted to the news with subdued enthusiasm.

There are some issues with this deal, as with a few of the other tariff negotiations over the past few months.

The framework agreement is still pending ratification by EU member states and the European Parliament, which could take months and may find opposition and debate. The deal imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the United States, half the originally threatened 30%, but still well beyond historic norms.

In the framework of the deal, the EU commits to energy imports worth $750 billion over the next three years, which includes copious amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petroleum products. Trump's "America First" agenda apparently favors selling high-priced fuel to Europe rather than keeping costs down for U.S. consumers. Besides, there's nothing written in stone, nor are there penalties for deviating from the outline of the deal. The EU, being an amalgamation of independent countries, might find disagreement among its members, especially if cheaper fuel can be purchased elsewhere.

The MAGA component includes investment in the American heartland of $600 billion, to be mobilized from European industries and invested in the United States, with a focus on defense manufacturing. Trump supposes that Europe will continue fighting its proxy war in Ukraine and will be willing to pay for American weapons, over three years, which is quite a long time for events on the ground to change.

Thus, U.S. markets were not exactly enthralled over the prospects, bearing in mind that the U.S. and Europe have perfected the practice of breaking contracts at their leisure.

In a related development, American appliance manufacturer, Whirlpool (WHR), was trading down as much as 17% in the pre-market after missing EPS estimates badly when it announced second quarter results after the close Monday. Earnings per share for the second quarter came in at $1.34 vs. $1.74 consensus and $2.39 a year ago.

"As expected, the second quarter continued to be impacted by competitors stockpiling Asian imports into the U.S. Despite this, we are well positioned in North America with a robust pipeline of new products, the industry's leading U.S. manufacturing footprint, and favorable housing demand fundamentals,"

--Whirlpool CEO Marc Bitzer.

On the forward front, Whirlpool (WHR) expects full-year EPS of $6.00 to $8.00 (AKA $7.00) versus a consensus of $9.06. Whoops! The market surely didn't like that.

The company also made the stunning announcement of recommending a new quarterly dividend rate of $0.90 per share, basically cutting the current $1.75 per share payout rate in half. This is nothing short of complete capitulation from an American-based company. The problem, despite corporate protestation to the contrary, isn't other companies stocking up on foreign inventory, it's the beginning of blowback from tariff threats and imposition in foreign markets. Whirlpool's sales were down materially in Latin American and Asian markets. Potential customers in countries from Thailand to Peru, Chile and Brazil are balking at "buying American." This is a problem the promoters of Trump tariff policy have clearly not adequately anticipated.

Trump's plan to bring foreign manufacturing back to the United States may have a fatal flaw if consumers in markets around the world consider the U.S. to be bullying the rest of the world - taking their jobs, for instance, and making their home-grown products pricier in the U.S. - they're likely to opt for products produced in their own countries or more friendly, neighboring, non-tariffing countries. Beyond that, in the absence of tariffs on goods and services not affected by U.S. tariff policy - say between Vietnam and Australia, or Brazil and Mexico, or, any of hundreds of other combinations - competition will be fierce and buying U.S. products may be considered toxic, unpatriotic, and not in the host nation's best interests.

The U.S. does not have a monopoly on patriotism. Most people in the world support their own countries first. While the bumper-sticker slogan, "America First", may support a degree of patriotism in North America and consumers supporting U.S. businesses, it translates to "Europe First", "Japan First" or even "BRICS First" to the rest of the world.

There are a multitude of issues that could arise from Trump's tariff proposals and their implementation, some of which cannot fully be appreciated until data from a few quarters is evident. While the stock market remains largely gung-ho on future prospects - the Shiller PE hit 38.96 yesterday, the second-highest ever - stocks are getting to a point of ridiculousness in valuation terms. Any deviation from the agenda set by the White House and congress could lead to unexpected results, such as Whirlpool demonstrated as a potential canary in the tariff coal mine.

In the meantime, the S&P and NASDAQ look to continue their streak of all-time highs while the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports flounder around, just below record levels, an indication that America's industrial might may be less-than-almighty. Gold and silver are beginning to rebound after three days of relentless short-selling on the COMEX. They supply an existential backdrop to the world's debt-fueled euphoria, reminding the planet about what really constitutes money and wealth.

The FOMC begins a two-day meeting today which will culminate in a policy announcement at 2:00 pm ET Wednesday. Until then, trading is likely to be wait-and-see mode, with the Fed stuck at a fed funds target rate of 4.25-4.50%, and prospects for Trump getting his rate cut slim. US 2nd quarter GDP will be released prior to the policy statement, so that number will almost surely be in play.

Everything will be fine until it's not. So far, so good, but the future is largely unpredictable.

At the Close, Monday, July 28, 2025:
Dow: 44,837.56, -64.36 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 21,178.58, +70.27 (+0.33%)
S&P 500: 6,389.77, +1.13 (+0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 20,821.28, -129.17 (-0.62%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Loaded Earnings Calendar, Fed Meeting, July Jobs Report in the Coming Week Suggests Market Volatility

The Shiller PE finished the week at 38.97, clearly the second-highest ever, closing in on the October, 1999, all-time high of 43.21. Stocks are undeniably in super-bubble territory.

Another gauge of market value, the Buffett Indicator, used by legendary investor Warren Buffett to time market moves, measures the total price of listed stocks against current GDP. It is a valuation multiple used to assess how expensive or cheap the aggregate stock market is at a given point in time.

Total market cap for U.S. listed stocks is currently at $ 63,834.2 billion ($63.834 trillion) while GDP is running at an annual rate of $29,955 billion ($29.955 trillion), making the ratio 213.1%, an all-time high, according to the website, gurufocus.com, which also provides other measures of stock market valuation.

Fortune magazine has the ratio - using the Wilshire 5000 for stock valuation - at 212% of GDP.

It's worth bearing in mind that GDP, according to the government, is likely to be grossly inflated, meaning that these indicators are not just flashing red lights, they've got sirens blaring, and smoke billowing, like a four-alarm fire.

But, keep buying. Stocks, like real estate in the mid-2000s, always go up. Other factors to keep in mind are the deeply ingrained Plunge Protection Team (PPT), otherwise known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which has routinely stepped in to keep stock prices from falling out of bed. They're usually resolute about their function and may be on top of markets constantly as the U.S. is challenged by BRICS, skeptics, current events and even itself to deliver a narrative of green lights and all's well. The New York Fed's trading desk and other market insiders like the Exchange Stabilization Fund are also probably hard at work keeping the plates spinning.

There's a certain kind of sadness to all of this, as the president, his administration, and Republicans in congress are loathe to show any kind of weakness, be it military, moral, or, in this case, financial. President Trump has once again chosen to use the stock market as a yardstick for American greatness, and, with all-time highs occurring regularly now, his use of the bully pulpit to further the "America First" and "Golden Age" narrative will be a major force in the constantly-evolving political/social media spin apparatus.

One more thing. This line from George Orwell's 1984 may be of some significance:

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

Stocks

Stocks made minor advances during the week, with the NASDAQ and S&P making new highs on a daily basis. The Dow continued to fall short of its own record and the transportation average, despite a solid advance, remains well below its records.

There are three big events this week which should impact markets. The FOMC meeting, Tuesday and Wednesday, July 29 and 30, will be closely watched. There is rampant speculation that the Fed will cut the federal funds target interest rate by either 25 or 50 basis points, though it's difficult to ascertain what would be the Fed's rationale, given the latest inflation readings were hardly dovish. Additionally, Trump's tariffs aren't supposed to take effect until August 1, so there's got to be some weight assigned to that.

The initial estimate of second quarter GDP will be announced prior to the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday. The GDP figures come out before the opening bell, at 8:30 am ET, and the Fed policy decision at 2:00 pm ET. Surely, the Fed will have advance knowledge of the GDP estimate, so whatever decision they make will be at least partially guided by that, so they can start off their statement with the usual garble, "Recent data showed the general economy grew at a blah, blah, blah..."

If GDP is anywhere above two percent, the Fed would be more inclined to keep rates steady at the current 4.25-4.50%. Should it come in at somewhere under one percent, that might supply cover for a rate cut. They're going to do whatever suits their best interests, and whether or not Chairman Powell is in a mood to appease the president by cutting will be present in the directive. Cutting interest rates when stocks are at all-rime highs and the money supply is increasing would be nothing short of throwing gasoline onto an already-raging fire, which is why the Fed shouldn't do it. As with everything and anything coming out of Washington, D.C. these days, making irrational or improper decisions (what used to be known as policy mistakes) cannot be ruled out.

On Friday, the Employment Situation (Non-farm Payrolls via the BLS) for July 2025 is scheduled to be released on August 1, 2025, at 8:30 am Eastern Time. That's the third leg of this week's economic data stool. Jobs haven't been cut to any degree, so a solid number is likely. With illegal immigrants either already deported, hiding from ICE, or self-deporting, there is an abundance of low-to-medium-skill jobs available across the country. It's difficult to imagine the unemployment rate going up under those conditions.

The most acceptable scenario would be GDP around 2.2%, no rate cut, and job gains of between 150,000 and 200,000. Americans and the rest of the world will find out what's up in broad terms this week.

Second quarter earnings calendar this week is absolutely jam-packed. Here's a sampling of some of the most important:

Monday (7/28): (before open) NewGold (NGD), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), Provident Bank (PROV); (after close) Waste Management (WM), Rambus (RMBS), Nucor (NUE), Whirlpool (WHR), Celestica (CLS)

Tuesday (7/29): (before open) Boeing (BA), SoFi (SOFI), Merck (MRK) Proctor & Gamble (PG), Spotify (SPOT), PayPal (PYPL), United Health Group (UNH), UPS (UPS) ; (after close) Stabucks (SBUX), Visa (V), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Teradyne (TER), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Seagate (STX), Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Wednesday (7/30): (before open) Altria (MO), Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), Harley Davidson (HOG), Etsy (ETSY) Generac (GNRC), Humana (HUM), KraftHeinz (KHC), Hershey (HSY); (after close) Robinhood (HOOD), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Carvana (CVNA), Ford (F), Kinross (KGC), Lam Research (LRCX), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday (7/31): (before open) Mastercard (MA), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Abbvie (ABBV), CVS Health (CVS), Cigna Financial (CI), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLS), Roblox (RBLX); (after close) Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase (COIN), Roku (ROKU), Reddit (RDDT), Cloudfare (NET), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Enovix (ENVX)

Friday (8/1): (before open) Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Dominion Energy (D), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Regeneron (REGN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL).

To say the least, this is going to be a busy week for anybody involved in policy or finance.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/20/2025	4.20	4.38	4.55	4.39	4.40	4.29	4.07
06/27/2025	4.19	4.43	4.49	4.39	4.36	4.26	3.97
07/03/2025	4.35	4.43	4.50	4.42	4.41	4.34	4.07
07/11/2025	4.37	4.39	4.47	4.41	4.42	4.31	4.09
07/18/2025	4.35	4.39	4.46	4.40	4.42	4.30	4.08
07/25/2025	4.37	4.46	4.46	4.42	4.42	4.31	4.09

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/20/2025	3.90	3.86	3.96	4.16	4.38	4.90	4.89
06/27/2025	3.73	3.72	3.83	4.03	4.29	4.85	4.85
07/03/2025	3.88	3.84	3.94	4.12	4.35	4.87	4.86
07/11/2025	3.90	3.86	3.99	4.19	4.43	4.96	4.96
07/18/2025	3.88	3.84	3.96	4.18	4.44	4.99	5.00
07/25/2025	3.91	3.86	3.95	4.15	4.40	4.92	4.92

Yields on long term maturities got spanked down pretty well this week, suggesting that not everybody in investment-land was buying the stock market rally. Though the movement was not substantial week over week, the interim in 10-year notes and 30-year bonds was, shown rather clearly by the eight basis point drop on the 30 year, robust. Also, the "kink" of the 20-year bond being higher than the 30, has disappeared. They've been equal or even properly adjusted for a couple of weeks now.

Full spectrum spreads from 30 days out to 30 years were slashed from +65 down to +55. 2s-10s, last wek at the highest of Money Daily's records, +56, got squished back to +49. Order is being restored.

Some wild yield swings may occur around the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, and again on Friday with the NFP report for July. Or not. It all depends on the data and what the Fed conjures up for it's policy decision and follow-up press conference.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $65.07, a drop of nearly a dollar from last Friday's closeout at $66.03. WTI crude has been stuck in a range between $65 and $67 since the ed of June, with no real direction being suggested by charts or geo-politics. Like everything other than stocks, the summer doldrums have serious interests sidelined, with prices fairly stable, awaiting the next round of tariff trauma, resolution to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the upcoming FOMC meeting or some exogenous "black swan" event, which by definition, cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy.

With economies worldwide subdued by slack demand and stagnation, the next move in oil is more likely to be lower rather than to a higher level. There's simply no impetus for a move to higher ground. That assumes none of the major players goes "off the farm", which is always possible.

Like oil, gas prices have simply leveled off over the past month. This week, Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.13, one penny higher than last week.

As usual, California has the highest prices in the country, $4.45, down three cents on the week.

Prices at the low end are led by Mississippi and Oklahoma (both $2.69). Louisiana ($2.73) and Texas ($2.75) are next, followed by Alabama ($2.77), Tennessee and South Carolina ($2.78) and Arkansas ($2.79). North Carolina ($2.86) and Georgia ($2.89) round out he sub-$3 southeast, with Florida ($3.09) bucking the trend.

Pennsylvania ($3.18) sits atop the Northeast states, down three cents on the week. Other than New Hampshire, all other New England and East coast states remained at or above $3.00, ranging from New York at $3.13 to New Jersey and Virginia right at an even $3.00.

Midwest states were led by Illinois ($3.37), the price down another five cents on the week. Kansas ($2.84) is the lowest in the region, followed by North Dakota ($2.87), Missouri ($2.88), and Wisconsin ($2.89). Along with Illinois, only Michigan ($3.23), Ohio ($3.09), and Indiana (3.06) are over $3.00. Colorado remained below $3 for a second straight week ($2.98).

Along with California, Washington ($4.35) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon remained down a few cents below, at $3.94. Nevada ($3.66) dropped two cents. Arizona ($3.15) continues to come down, but is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a comparative bargain, at $2.91, though that is up 16 cents from last week. Idaho ($3.46) and Utah ($3.32) were unchanged.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 22 states, the same number as last week.

Bitcoin

This week: $118,275.80
Last week: $117,859.20
2 weeks ago: $119,022.00
6 months ago: $102,938.00
One year ago: $68,017.18
Five years ago: $11,811.00

Bitcoin was flat and has been since making new highs about two weeks ago (July 14). A day will come when all the Wall Street types that have been pushing the crypto myth - Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, even grifters like Anthony Scaramuchi (the Mooch) - will liquidate their holdings, sell down their ETFs and leave the remains to bag-holders.

Crypto is a massive scam. There's just no other way to put it. It was created to condition the human mind to digital currencies, in advance of government/central bank-controlled CBDCs, and it's working. There are millions of rubes captivated by the allure of money which has no intrinsic value, no basis, that cannot be seen or touched, which is as the banking cartel would have it.

As it is, the global reserve currency, the mighty U.S. dollar ($US), is backed by "the full faith and credit" of the United States government, over which people have lost faith because the government is comprised of spendthrifts who shouldn't be allowed credit. The proof is in the $37 trillion pile of debt that continues to grow.

It's sad to think that people are led to believe that moving their money out of one fiat currency - the dollar, or euros or yen or what have you - to another entity that is completely unbacked is some form of financial genius and eventual economic salvation. Bitcoin, memecoins, altcoins, stablecoins and all of the shitcan derivatives are pure nonsense, which, in today's environment, is acceptable.

Good luck, all you "coiners" and "hodlers."

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.10; last week: 87.34

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/27: $3,286.10
Gold price 7/3: $3,346.50
Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50

Silver price 6/27: $36.17
Silver price 7/3: $37.13
Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42
Silver price 7/25: $38.33

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	42.00	51.45	44.65	43.51
1 oz silver bar:	34.00	50.70	44.98	46.21
1 oz gold coin:	3,453.30	3,597.70	3,517.86	3,502.60
1 oz gold bar:	3,464.69	3,581.69	3,511.39	3,509.53

Gold and silver prices were much higher early in the week than the closing price on Friday afternoon in New York, at least that's what the usual suspects at the CME and COMEX would have one believe. Gold was as high as $3445.70, a five week high, and silver hit a 14-year high at $39.90 early Wednesday morning.

What occurred from that point forward was nothing short of desperation on the part of the Western economies' suppression teams. The net result was smack in the paper markets with physical moving further away from the obviously-rigged derivative market.

One can call it premia, premiums or simply retail markup, but the trend is clearly away from COMEX and LBMA price fixes toward a more level-headed environment based, not on pretentious paper pushing, but on real world experience. If miners are willing to continue to accept the global monetary cartel's insistence on keeping the prices of 1000-ounce silver bars, 100 troy ounce gold futures contracts (CME) and 400-troy-ounce (438.9-ounce; 27.4-pound; 12.4-kilogram) Good Delivery gold bars at prices below what the physical market demands, then the shame is on them for being so controlled by financiers rather than pursuing sound business practices.

Having paper derivatives set the price is pure folly, "putting the wagon before the horses," so to speak. It's only by ceding control of all monetary aspects of life to bankers' rules and fiat controls that the price of real money is "what we say it is," and nobody can say otherwise. Those days - of dollar dominance, money conjured out of thin air - are coming to a rapid end. Refusal in physical markets to adhere to the regimen devised some 50-odd years ago is becoming more and more evident with every paper smackdown, this latest one so grossly obvious as to make it laughable.

Clearly, judging by what is being offered and sold on eBay and at online retail merchants is not fully accepting the COMEX price. Even 10 ounce gold bars are priced well above $3,400 at retail. On eBay, even higher. One ounce gold coins and bars maintained their pricing power through the week. Silver is another case altogether. Being a much smaller market than gold, it is much easier to manipulate, as evidenced by the drop from $39.90 to $38.33 on the COMEX this week (Wednesday through Friday) and the lack of effect on physical bullion on eBay, a real market with competitive prices and robust demand, which was off merely by pennies from the prior week, not the $1.57 the COMEX would prefer.

There are those in this world who will not part with their gold or silver at these prices. As Western economies implode there will be more of them until the numbers reach what some people call "critical mass", a point at which gold and silver will be seen as what they really are, money, and paper as merely credit. There was a time, when governments were honest, that one could redeem paper credits for gold and/or silver. Those days were not that long ago in historical terms, a century or so removed. What is happening behind the scenes, in BRICS countries and those associated with them, is a movement towards honest money and an end to the tyrannical rule of central banks.

While it may seem like an eternity to wait out the purveyors of credit as substitutes for real money, the time is well spent stacking up one's future fortune.

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell marginally this week, to $44.84, a drop of 20 cents from the July 20 price of $45.04 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Last week’s WEEKEND WRAP closed with this comment:

The recent flak over the "Epstein Files" gives support to the theory that leaders of most Western nations - possibly excluding Japan - are fully compromised and wholly incompetent. With such a backdrop, free (for now) citizens should treat their governments with all the disrespect they so richly deserve, disregarding any ill consequences while working towards a future devoid of sick, twisted sociopaths in powerful positions.

We’ll stick with that and add that the sheer volume and importance of data and earnings announcements this week is sure to be overwhelming for some people. It might make the most sense to just stand back and watch, awestruck, as the wheels of economic turn at a quickened pace. For a mid-summer week, this one promises to be jumpy and bumpy.

At the Close, Friday, July 25, 2025:
Dow: 44,901.92, +208.01 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 21,108.32, +50.36 (+0.24%)
S&P 500: 6,388.64, +25.29 (+0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 20,950.45, +97.03 (+0.47%)

For the Week:
Dow: +559.73 (+1.26%)
NASDAQ: +212.66 (+1.02%)
S&P 500: +91.85 (+1.46%)
NYSE Composite: +408.89 (+1.99%)
Dow Transports: +502.73 (+3.17%)

The Market May Not Be Irrational After All, and Inflation Is Going to Persist As Money Supply Increases Along with Tariffs

Heading into the final trading session of the week, the major indices look to be on track for another strong performance. Through Thursday's close, and, despite being sent lower on the day, the Dow is up 351 points. The NASDAQ is ahead 162 points, and the S&P has added 67 points.

Needless to say, even though the NASDAQ and S&P have been setting new record highs day after day, advances have been less-than-impressive. The S&P has finished green every day this week, but on three of those four days, the advances have been less than 10 points.

There is a chance that the constant pumping by rabid stock pushers may be running out of steam. Just maybe, though as John Maynard Keynes once quipped, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." But, what if the market isn't irrational, isn't overpriced, even though many gauges confirm that there's a degree of bubble behavior being transmitted through the algorithms down to the floor traders.

Could it be that between the advances in AI, the turmoil in Trump's tariff negotiations, and the Fed keeping interest rates on hold, that stocks are actually well-priced and there's more room to run?

That's getting to be a tougher and tougher argument to make with each passing day. The cause for stocks' general advance is likely tied more to the Fed's liquidity spigot than anything else.

As the chart below shows rather clearly, the Fed's brief affair with QT (Quantitative Tightening) began in April 2022 and ended in October 2023, which, not by coincidence is exactly when the last bottom occurred in stock markets. From November 2023 to the present day, the Fed has been pumping liquidity into the market, and the primary recipients of that fresh loot are your friendly neighborhood robber barons Wall Street bankers, who buy, among other things, treasury issuance and, you guessed it, stocks.

The U.S. money supply is above $22 trillion, an all-time high, just like stocks, and, while correlation does not always necessarily imply causation, it wouldn't take a leap of faith to imply that the Fed has been responsible for the current rally and the recent returning spate of inflation. The Federal Reserve, being at all times less-than-forthright about its intentions, doesn't have to lower interest rates to fuel inflation, they can do it simply by increasing the money supply.

While we're quoting famous economists, recall Milton Friedman's view: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output."

Friedman certainly had a way with words. Among some of his more pithy comments, he said,

Central bankers always try to avoid their last big mistake. So every time there's the threat of a contraction in the economy, they'll over stimulate the economy, by printing too much money. The result will be a rising roller coaster of inflation, with each high and low being higher than the preceding one.

and...

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.

Funny guy, but, accurate. There's a whole volume of his quotes here.

So, it should be fairly clear that the markets are not irrational, but merely, for lack of a better term, following the money.

Whenever President Trump chides Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, it elicits no response from the Chairman, for a couple of good reasons. He's well aware that lowering interest rates could spark another round of higher inflation, and, he also knows that he's already kicking inflation higher by adding to the money supply. It appears, that the Trump-Powell feud, like so much else that goes about in Washington, D.C., is all for show.

These guys aren't stupid. Even Trump has to know that lowering interest rates with stocks and the money supply already at record levels would lead to a massive inflationary blow-off. It boggles the mind as to why he keeps insisting on it.

Meanwhile, as the money printer hums along, going brrrr... and the dollar continues to be debased, the riggers at the COMEX can't keep their greedy little fingers off precious metals. After gold hit a five-week high at $3445.70, and silver a 14-year high at $39.90 Tuesday night, it's been straight downhill for shiny rocks. Just before 9:00 am ET on Friday, gold was at $3340.80 and silver at $39.03. That's $100 off the gold and a buck lower on silver.

Though the takedown of precious is obvious and ongoing, this most recent attempt to squash real money looks like amateur hour. A $100 decline in gold isn't even three percent and knocking a buck off silver - which, BTW is among the best performing assets of 2025 - is only 2.5%, so not so scary.

Just to make one last shot at calling the stock market irrational, what is another leading asset for 2025, rivaling silver? It's not Amazon or Meta or even Nvidia. It's eBay. Yeah, eBay. It's gone from the low 60s to yesterday's close of 82.45 this year, a 33% gain.

Go figure.

At the Close, Thursday, July 24, 2025:
Dow: 44,693.91, -316.38 (-0.70%)
NASDAQ: 21,057.96, +37.94 (+0.18%)
S&P 500: 6,363.35, +4.44 (+0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 20,853.42, -68.42 (-0.33%)

Dow Just Short of All-Time High; Alphabet (GOOG) Reports Strong 2Q; Tesla Falls; Shiller PE at 2nd-Highest in History; Silver Approaching $40

While the S&P and NASDAQ both finished at record closes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Wednesday just four points shy of its all-time closing high (45,014.04, Dec. 4, 2024).

It would appear that the Dow is headed to a new record, though that may not happen today, as Dow futures at 8:00 am ET are 164 points in the red, mostly due to Dow component IBM sliding in pre-market trading.

International Business Machines (IBM) delivered stronger results than expected and raised its forecast for full-year free cash flow, but revenue and gross margin in the software business were below consensus. IBM shares have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, but the stock is down six percent prior to the opening bell.

After the close Wednesday, Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TLSA) reported second quarter results, with Alphabet putting up strong numbers across all of their business segments. The stock is higher by nearly four percent in the pre-market.

Elon Musk's Tesla did not fare as well, the stock down more than six percent prior to the open. The company reported a 16% decline in auto revenue as sales fell for a second straight quarter and again fell short of analysts’ estimates. Earnings per share came in at 40 cents adjusted vs. 43 cents expected on revenue of $22.50 billion vs. $22.74 billion estimates.

Other companies reporting Thursday morning include Honeywell (HON) Union Pacific (UNP), and Blackstone (BX).

Honeywell fell about three percent pre-market as the company experienced margin compression during the quarter.

Blackstone beat estimates on earnings per share of 98 cents, versus 58 cents a year ago. GAAP Net Income was $1.6 billion for the quarter on revenue of $2.035 billion. Shares are three percent higher pre-market.

Union Pacific's (UNP) earnings rose rose to $3.03, topping Wall Street expectations of $2.91. The company reported EPS of $2.71 per share in the same period last year. The company is apparently in merger talks with Norfolk Southern, a move that would combine the largest railroad operators from the east and west. Shares are flat heading into the open.

Intel reports after Thursday's close and is expected to report a decline of 50% in EPS to $0.01 on a more than 7% drop in sales to $11.88B. shares of Intel ar up 17% year-to-date, but the stock price has been cut by more than half over the past 18 months.

Overnight, Japan's NIKKEI gained more than 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.5%. European markets are all up as the day progresses.

Gold and silver are being hammered on the COMEX, a day after gold hit a five-week high at $3,446.20 and silver made a 14-year high at $39.90 per ounce. An hour prior to stocks opening, gold is at $3,665 and silver holding up better, at $39.35.

The Dow Industrials and the Dow Transportation Average are two indices that have not yet reached previous highs, which, if one adheres to Dow Theory is a troubling sign for the ongoing rallies on the S&P and NASDAQ. If the Industrials do somehow manage to make new highs, the trend can only be confirmed by the Transports doing the same, though that index is still 1,500 points below highs set in late November of last year.

Finally, in case there are still doubts that the market is overheating, the Shiller PE is sitting at the second-highest ever after closing yesterday at 38.79. The all-time high for the Shilller PE - which accounts for earnings over a 10-year period - was in December 1999, at the height of the dotcom boom. That high water mark was 44.19.

With no restraints on FOMO or dip-buying by institutions and retail alike, there's a good chance that the current super-bubble will exceed all expectations. Such a development would clearly please President Trump, who could complain again that people stop looking into the "old news" Epstein files and focus on the marvelously-inflated stock market.

Woopie!

At the Close, Wednesday, July 23, 2025:
Dow: 45,010.29, +507.85 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 21,020.02, +127.33 (+0.61%)
S&P 500: 6,358.91, +49.29 (+0.78%)
NYSE Composite: 20,921.84, +263.05 (+1.27%)

S&P, Dow Set to Surge as Trump Announces Tariff Deal with Japan; Capital One, Northrop-Grumman Shares Higher; Alphabet, Tesla to Report After the Close

Earnings season is in full swing, with many of the most-recognizable and widely-held companies reporting second quarter results this week.

Among the big movers Wednesday morning is Capital One Financial (COF), its latest filing - after the close Tuesday - reflecting the company's merger with Discover. Accounting for the one-time losses stemming from the acquisition, Capital One reported a net loss of $4.3 billion for the second quarter of 2025, or $8.58 per share.

Investors are looking past those expenses, focusing on stripping out the merger charge, making the adjusted earnings per share $5.48, which handily beat analysts' estimate of $4.04 per share.

The combined company is now a behemoth in the credit industry, with card loans of $269.7 billion, and total loans held for investment rose of $439.3 billion, sending shares in the pre-market ripping higher by more than two percent.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) shares are higher as the company boosted its outlook as the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East have boosted demand for weapons.

Those two reports speak volumes about current conditions. Wall Street is giddy over people being in debt up to their eyeballs and foreigners dying in wars waged with American-made weapons. Money talks and Wall Street and Washington D.C. are loaded to the gills with it.

The reaction to results from AT&T (T) wasn't quite as rosy. Despite a solid quarter that including gains to its subscription base, shares are down more than three percent.

Wednesday's trading is likely to revolve around two of the Magnificent 7 stocks, Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TLSA), both reporting after the close. International Business Machines (IBM) and T-Mobile US (TMUS) will also be releasing second quarter results after the close of trading. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Mattel (MAT) also report after the market closes.

Meanwhile, President Trump moved markets again Wednesday morning, announcing a trade deal with Japan that reduced tariffs due to begin being imposed on August 1 to 15%. His blatant market manipulation is disturbing. He and others in his administration, such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are making bank on stock trades timed against these well-planned raises and walk-backs on tariffs, just as most members of congress do. It's becoming fairly obvious that the rich are enriching themselves with reckless abandon.

Elsewhere, gold and silver continue to march higher, with gold nearing a record high, at $3,437.90, and silver up to $39.80 per ounce on the COMEX an hour before the opening bell.

WTI crude oil continues to slide in the opposite direction, quoted right around $65/barrel Wednesday morning.

Futures are pointing to a strong open, with Dow futures up 223 points, NASDAQ futures lagging, up just 12 points, while S&P futures are higher by 21.

The Shiller PE gained on Tuesday and stands at 38.45, still just shy of the second-highest ever, 38.58, made in October, 2021. Positive news from some of the tech biggies reporting this week, given the lowered bars analysts have set as targets, should push the 500 to more record highs.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 22, 2025:
Dow: 44,502.44, +179.37 (+0.40%)
NASDAQ: 20,892.69, -81.49 (-0.39%)
S&P 500: 6,309.62, +4.02 (+0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 20,658.79, +144.32 (+0.70%)

Americans Will Pay More - Often Much More - for Cars Beginning This Year; U.S. Stocks Look to Be Topping Out

Americans will be hard-pressed to find the 2025 Omoda C5 SUV unless they travel south of the border to Mexico, one of the many countries in which this Chinese brand (Chery is the parent company) is manufactured.

With a price of 449,900 Mexican peso (MXN) ($24,070.20 USD) it is comparable to many U.S. compact SUVs at a lower cost, unless you want to buy one in the U.S., where tariffs will increase the price by anywhere from 50-150%, depending on how President Trump feels about China on any particular day. In general terms, you can't buy a Chinese branded car, truck, or SUV in the U.S. because of the high protectionist tariffs.

The Omoda C5 compares with equivalent SUVs available in the U.S. such as the Honda CR-V ($31,495), Mazda CX-5 ($30,265), Ford Bronco Sport ($32,990), or Toyota RAV4 ($31,000). Car & Driver reviewed these and other models as the best compact SUVs for 2025.

All of these vehicles get anywhere from 25-31 MPG, some are available as hybrids or EVs as well.

Editor's Note: Prices quoted for SUVs available in the U.S. are from Car & Driver and do not adequately reflect the price increases due to tariffs. Some of these vehicles are manufactured in the U.S., some not, making price comparisons difficult at best.

When it comes to electric vehicles, the news is only going to get worse for Americans as the EV tax credits expire in September, adding as much as $7500 to the price of already-overpriced EVs. Meanwhile, in China, the #1 EV manufacturer, BYD, recently lowered the price on its entry-level Seagull to under $8,000.

Yes, that's right. Under $8,000. And while the Seagull is a super-compact all-electric vehicle, it will still get drivers from point A to point B. The car is smaller than the discontinued Chevy Bolt EV (4,145 mm long, 1,765 mm wide, and 1,611 mm tall). It’s about the size of a Fiat 500e. The Seagull EV is also sold in other global markets like Mexico and Brazil as the Dolphin Mini.

But, here's the reality check. Later this year, the Seagull will launch in Europe as the Dolphin Surf, with expected prices starting under #20,000 ($26,000). If that's the European price, imagine the U.S. price to be equal if not 25-50% higher.

Tariffs are yet to have much effect, but will begin to show price hikes on August 1st as many go live. Envy of the Global South may begin to appear in America and Europe.

After Monday's pump-and-dump, the Shiller PE now stands at 38.45, just shy of the second-highest ever, 38.58, from October, 2021. With earnings coming out fast and furious over the next two weeks, there's sure to be some sentiment on earnings sufficient to move the needle a little higher.

Monday's trading was typical of a bear market, not the current bull, and could presage a topping out in stocks. The Dow gave up more than 250 points after hitting the highs for the day just after 1:30 pm ET. The NASDAQ and S&P slid from early highs as well, but managed to remain in positive territory.

Tuesday morning's earnings reports are not stacking up well. General Motors (GM) took a $1.1 billion tariff-related hit to its bottom line in the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share fell to $2.53 compared with $3.06 a year earlier. Shares are three percent lower pre-market.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) is reeling pre-market, down more than seven percent, after the company reported earnings of $1.46 per share, down from $6.85 per share last year. Lockheed said it recorded $1.6 billion in pretax losses on different programs, as well as $169 million in charges during the quarter, which impacted earnings by $5.83 per share. Ouch!

Stocks futures are setting up for a flat to lower open, Dow futures off 27 points, S&P futures up 3, NASDAQ futures are down 5.

Gold and silver are ripping higher prior to the opening bell. Gold is at $3,421.70. Silver, $39.60.

And most of the tariffs haven't even started. Look out below?

At the Close, Monday, July 21, 2025:
Dow: 44,323.07, -19.12 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 20,974.17, +78.52 (+0.38%)
S&P 500: 6,305.60, +8.81 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 20,514.47, -27.09 (-0.13%)

Epstein, though Dead, Not Going Away; Government Elites Hounded by Allegations and Innuendo of Bribes, Blackmail, Extortion, Malfeasance, Incompetence

For another week, the stonewalling by the Trump administration over releasing information regarding the life and times of one Jeffrey Epstein stole all the thunder from the usual Wall Street chicanery, whose leading figures are also, no doubt, part and parcel of the vast network of bribery, blackmail, extortion, and malfeasance by which the elite ruling class is guided.

Those seeking better understanding of Jeffrey Epstein and his history, the Tucker Carlson Show presented a nearly-three-hour-long podcast on Friday, with Tucker Carlson joined by Darryl Cooper on the True History of Jeffrey Epstein and Ongoing Cover-Up. The discussion is comprehensive, though not definitive. The truth behind Jeffrey Epstein is likely to be one of those ongoing mysteries like 9-11, JFK, and other incidents the elite government operators would rather keep clear of public knowledge.

Here is Darryl Cooper on the real story of Jeffrey Epstein.

Darryl Cooper is the creator of The Martyr Made Podcast, and is the co-host of The Unraveling w/Jocko Willink, and Provoked w/Scott Horton. He lives with his family on his farm in Idaho.

The rundown:
(0:00) The Strange Origins of Jeffrey Epstein and His Connection to Bill Barr
(18:09) Did Epstein Belong to Intelligence?
(48:52) Who Really Was Robert Maxwell?
(1:16:23) How Epstein Got Rich and His Strange Relationship With Les Wexner
(1:26:34) Is There Any Documented Financial Records of Epstein’s Supposed Hedge Fund?
(1:58:29) The True Definition of Evil
(2:29:41) Did Epstein Kill Himself?
(2:39:26) Cooper’s Message to the White House

Besides the overtones of deep state government and high-profile excesses in places both known and unknown, fair returns on second quarter earnings were revealed, and economic data was sanguine through the past week.

Stocks

For the week, the Dow and NYSE Composite were both down marginally (-0.07% and -0.03%, respectively), while the NASDAQ led the majors with a 1.51% gain. The S&P added a bit more than a half percent. The Dow Transportation Index gave back most of the prior week's gains (-2.14%)

The most under-reported story was Tuesday's CPI reading at 2.7% annual inflation, with core inflation also headed higher, up to 2.9% annualized. Most of Wall Street was content to whistle past the grave on inflation, taking a wait-and-see conviction heading into more summer dog days, awaiting the turmoil which will begin to be revealed come September.

While retail investors weigh their options while asleep at the wheel, there's growing concern amongst hedge funds and other big money managers. Nobody is 100% sure Trump's tariff policies will produce positive results. At the current juncture, there is more concern over the entire facade of U.S. exceptionalism than whether GDP was up or down in the second quarter, the initial estimate for 2Q GDP set for release pre-market (8:30 am ET) on July 30, just prior to the Fed's FOMC rate policy announcement at 2:00 pm ET on the same day.

Nobody can say for certain when the Fed gets that initial second quarter GDP estimate or how it may influence their thinking concerning interest rates, but there's a good chance that Chairman Powell will downplay GDP at his press conference, no matter what the number is.

Before all that, however, the coming week offers some interesting tidbits of economic data, including Monday's June Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board; existing home sales for June on Wednesday; New Home Sales for June, unemployment claims, and July S&P Flash US PMI on Thursday; and June Durable Goods Orders on Friday.

Stocks reporting second quarter earnings this week:

Monday: Verizon (VZ), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Roper Technologies (ROP), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

Tuesday: SAP (SAP), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), Texas Instruments (TXN), RTX Corp. (RTX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Capital One Financial (COF), Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Motors (GM)

Wednesday: Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TLSA), International Business Machines (IBM), T-Mobile US (TMUS), ServiceNow (NOW), AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), NextEra Energy (NEE), Boston Scientific (BSX), GE Vernova (GEV)

Thursday: Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone (BX), Intel (INTC)

Friday: HCA Healthcare (HCA), Aon (AON), Charter Communications (CHTR), Phillips 66 (PSX), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/13/2025	4.23	4.32	4.48	4.45	4.40	4.30	4.09
06/20/2025	4.20	4.38	4.55	4.39	4.40	4.29	4.07
06/27/2025	4.19	4.43	4.49	4.39	4.36	4.26	3.97
07/03/2025	4.35	4.43	4.50	4.42	4.41	4.34	4.07
07/11/2025	4.37	4.39	4.47	4.41	4.42	4.31	4.09
07/18/2025	4.35	4.39	4.46	4.40	4.42	4.30	4.08

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/13/2025	3.96	3.90	4.02	4.20	4.41	4.93	4.90
06/20/2025	3.90	3.86	3.96	4.16	4.38	4.90	4.89
06/27/2025	3.73	3.72	3.83	4.03	4.29	4.85	4.85
07/03/2025	3.88	3.84	3.94	4.12	4.35	4.87	4.86
07/11/2025	3.90	3.86	3.99	4.19	4.43	4.96	4.96
07/18/2025	3.88	3.84	3.96	4.18	4.44	4.99	5.00

Interest rates crept up again this week, with the 10-year note hitting 4.50% and the 30-year bond touching 5.01% on Tuesday. Treasuries are beginning to look like losing prospects unless yields are raised substantially across the longer maturities. There's little comfort holding two-year or three-year notes at 3.80% to 3.90% with core inflation at 2.9% and all goods and services inflation at an annual rate of 2.7%, especially when everybody knows the BLS numbers are bunk, and not very good bunk, at that.

Full spectrum spreads from 30 days out to 30 years jumped up again to an elevated +65. 2s-10s are at the highest of Money Daily's records, +56.

Money Daily warned last week of the 30-year hitting 5.00% and it turned out to be quite the prescient call.

It would not come as much of a surprise for interest rates to continue rising quietly over the coming weeks, as the world rests out the heat of summer. While the U.S. offers attractive yields on longer maturities relative to its peers in Europe, the larger issue of faith in the currency itself is being tested by BRICS continued de-dollarization and the sordid affairs at the apex of government stemming from the Epstein honeypot and continuing cover-up.

For political junkies with leanings toward economics it doesn't get much more exciting than right now. For the amoral ruling class, it doesn't get much more turgid and deceitful. Much more to come as the facade of respectfulness is ripped to shreds.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $66.03, a drop of $1.32 from last Friday's finish at $67.35. Oil's stagnation in the mid-60s is probably a fair price for producers and users, causing no ill effects nor inflationary impulse. With summer in full swing, markets in general are more subdued, and with the U.S. congress pretty much done with its legislative agenda for the near term, some quiet time is probably overdue.

Gas prices have followed oil's path on a more immediate basis than usual. It seems retail gas stations are micro-managing prices, adjusting almost on a daily basis with crude oil in real time.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, one penny down from last week, mostly insignificant, though pretty much in tandem with the price of oil.

The highest prices in the country were to be found in California, as usual, at $4.48, down two cents on the week.

Prices at the traditional low end have settled, led by Mississippi and Oklahoma (both $2.70), Texas and Tennessee are next at $2.73 and $2.74, respectively. Arkansas and New Mexico both are at $2.75; Louisiana, $2.77; Alabama and South Carolina, $2.78. Georgia, North Carolina ($2.87), and Florida ($3.07) are the highest.

The Northeast continues to be led on the high side by Pennsylvania ($3.21), down four cents. All other New England and East coast states remained at or above $3.00, ranging from New Hampshire at $3.00 to New York at $3.15.

Midwest states are topped by Illinois ($3.42), the price down five cents on the week. Kentucky is the lowest, at $2.83, followed by Kansas ($2.86), North Dakota ($2.87) and Missouri ($2.88). Along with Illinois, only Indiana (3.17) and Michigan ($3.14) are over $3.00. Ohio and Colorado joined the sub-$3 party at $2.93 and $2.94, respectively.

Along with California, Washington ($4.38) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon was down a few cents at $3.96. Nevada ($3.68) dropped two cents. Arizona ($3.18) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a super bargain, at $2.75. Idaho ($3.46) was up two cents, and Utah ($3.32) up a nickel.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in one fewer state this week than last, with now 22 states at that level, one more than last week.

Bitcoin

This week: $117,859.20
Last week: $119,022.00
2 weeks ago: $108,808.00
6 months ago: $102,204.30
One year ago: $67,156.72
Five years ago: $9,710.92

Bitcoin made new highs, vaulting over $120,000 during the week, prompting the usual calls for $200,000 and up to a$1 million as the fair value of one of the 21 million satoshis floating through the ether.

Crypto Week concluded with the House passing the GENIUS Act and sending it on to the president, who signed it into law on Friday and will likely be issuing a Trump stablecoin within weeks. Maybe congress can get their own stablecoins, like HouseCoin and SenateCoin, speeding up and improving the method by which elected officials can steal money from taxpayers.

The dense Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (DAMCA) and the Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Surveillance Act (ACBDCSA) which provides a pinkie-swear resolution that congress will not allow the Federal Reserve to produce a CBDC to enslave everybody were overwhelmingly approved by the House and sent on to the Senate for deliberation. The untrustworthy gang of 100 will get right back to work on these matters right after their month-long August holiday, for sure.

Laws like these are just what America needs: regulations over "money" that nobody can see, touch, or feel, completely under control of elitists in government and the financial industry. Milestones for even less freedom!

Being the gateway drug to controllable, programmable, government digital currency or CBDC, Bitcoin is good training for people pre-conditioned to Pavlovian responses. Please bark when bitcoin hits $125,000. Arf!

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.34; last week: 86.24

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/20: $3,384.40
Gold price 6/27: $3,286.10
Gold price 7/3: $3,346.50
Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50

Silver price 6/20: $35.95
Silver price 6/27: $36.17
Silver price 7/3: $37.13
Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42

Precious metals held their ground amidst a flurry of somewhat directionless economic indicators. The most beneficial to gold and silver owners was likely the June CPI reading from Tuesday, showing headline inflation in the U.S. at 2.7% annualized. While the higher inflation reading is a good signal for PMs as hedges against inflation, the other side of the coin (pun intended) is that being no closer to the Fed's desired target of two percent offers no good reason for the FOMC to lower the federal funds target rate.

Any kind of return on paper assets which is above the supposed inflation rate offers investors choices in either fixed income or risk assets, such as stocks, though returns of roughly four percent aren't exactly great, especially if inflation continues to rise.

Gold and silver offer equally good prospects, as their prices are likely to rise in inflationary environments, unless the Fed decides to go "full Volker" and increase rates to 7, 8, 10 percent or higher, an unlikely occurrence given the current squeamish makeup of the Fed body.

Patience being the primary weapon for gold bugs and silver stackers, PMs remain the ultimate "buy and hold" assets. There is certainly no shame in saving in currencies that are appreciating against almost all others.

Looking at current trends, both metals appear to be consolidating around recent levels. It may take an economic event, such as a rate cut, an even higher CPI reading, or extreme tariff trauma to lift PMs to higher ground, but, considering the general history of the Fed and government bloat, it's a near-certainty that the leading perverts at the head of policy in Western nations will provide one soon enough.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped slightly this week, to $45.04, a loss of 13 cents from the July 13 price of $45.17 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

The recent flak over the "Epstein Files" gives support to the theory that leaders of most Western nations - possibly excluding Japan - are fully compromised and wholly incompetent. With such a backdrop, free (for now) citizens should treat their governments with all the disrespect they so richly deserve, disregarding any ill consequences while working towards a future devoid of sick, twisted sociopaths in powerful positions.

At the Close, Friday, July 18, 2025:
Dow: 44,342.19, -142.30 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 20,895.66, +10.01 (+0.05%)
S&P 500: 6,296.79, -0.57 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,541.56, -47.96 (-0.23%)

For the Week:
Dow: -29.32 (-0.07%)
NASDAQ: +310.13 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: +37.04 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: -6.11 (-0.03%)
Dow Transports: -346.75 (-2.14%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Friday, July 18, 2025

Epstein Intrigue Deepens with Suspect Trump Letter; Stocks on Track for Winning Week; Gold, Silver Bid; WTI Crude Languishing

The circus continues.

Now, days after calling anything and everything Epstein-related a "hoax", comparing to Russia-gate and Hunter Biden's "Russian disinformation" laptop, President Trump is calling on AG Pam Bondi to release more information, including sealed grand jury testimony.

This new approach appears after the venerable Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday that it had unearthed a bawdy birthday letter from Trump to Epstein with a drawing of a naked woman, an acknowledgement that the two "have certain things in common," and a wish for "every day [to] be another wonderful secret."

Trump has responded by threatening to sue the newspaper, saying that he never wrote the letter in question.

“This is not me. This is a fake thing. It’s a fake Wall Street Journal story. I never wrote a picture in my life. I don’t draw pictures of women. It’s not my language. It’s not my words.”

-President Donald J. Trump

This latest revelation begins to suggest that this entire chapter of American politics has been planned and rehearsed, designed to confuse the American public and destroy confidence in the president while stripping away his MAGA support. When all is said and done, including Epstein's procurer of young ladies, Ghislaine Maxwell, testifying to congress, nothing will come of it. There are too many careers at stake among the rich, powerful, and politically-connected for the information to be revealed fully to the unwashed masses.

Jeffrey Epstein was almost certainly an intelligence asset of either MI6, the CIA, or Israel's Mossad, or even all three. The current disclosures, Trump's denial of involvement, congress seeking transparency is all more cheap theater and the elites that control the U.S. government and large swathes of the economy. The likelihood of anything substantial being released is close to zero.

Meanwhile, Wall Street ignores the issue completely and has charged higher during the week, with the S&P and NASDAQ making new all-time highs again on Thursday, with the Dow lagging, still 530 points from its record close on December 4, 2025, at 45,014.04.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow was ahead by 113 points for the week. NASDAQ is up 298, with the S&P sporting a gain of 37 points.

The first week of second quarter earnings season featured generally-positive results from big banks, some disappointment and also some strong showings in the chip sector. Friday morning featured earnings reports from Huntington Bank (HBAN), Truist Financial (TFC), American Express (AXP), Ally Bank (ALLY), 3M (MMM), Regions Bank (RF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Comerica (CMA), helping futures maintain a positive footing, though marginal.

It's been a trying week for the president and his associates, though they're showing few signs of stress.

Retail sales were up for June.

Gold and silver are on the move Friday morning, with gold at $3,366 and silver threatening $39 again, at $38.78, sloe to the high of the week. Crude oil continues to languish in the nid-60s. WTI is quoted at $67.10 just after 9:00 am ET.

At the Close, Thursday, July 17, 2025:
Dow: 44,484.49, +229.71 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: 20,885.65, +155.16 (+0.75%)
S&P 500: 6,297.36, +33.66 (+0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 20,589.52, +103.78 (+0.51%)

Trump is Done. Epstein Files Overwhelmingly Destructive to Trump, Congress, and America

Fearless Rick reporting.

Above is the latest - and extremely lame and insulting - "truth" from President Trump concerning the Epstein matter, which, for whatever reason, he would like to simply disappear into some vast voided chasm, never to be seen or heard again.

Unfortunately for the president who campaigned on releasing the "Epstein files" on numerous occasions, this story will not go away, despite his protestations. The worst part of the president's latest rambling, nearly-incoherent message on the topic is his purposeful abandonment of his base, the people who supported him, who elected him.

This is a slap in the face of millions of proud, patriotic Americans, many of whom will not take it, including myself. I supported Donald Trump from the very moment he rode down the Trump Tower elevator and announced his candidacy in 2015. I like to say, "I voted for him all three times he won," sarcastically supporting the fact that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

NO MORE.

My message to President Trump is a simple one. If you no longer want my support, fine with me. You're on your own. Best of luck. And, by the way, go F--- yourself. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Honestly, I don't know what happened to Mr. Trump, but I do know this: Whatever is in those files is so important, so revealing, so dreadful, people more powerful than Trump do not want them released to the public. Like the JFK files. Like 9-11. Like all the other disturbing, disgusting things the U.S. government has done over the years and hidden from the general public.

I am an American. I will remain an American. I can handle the truth.

Apparently, Mr. Trump, you cannot, which is extremely un-American.

I have long been convinced that the current "leadership" in the United States is the most corrupt ever to wield power in the history of the world. The depth of their depravity is profound and deeply disturbing. At this point, does it matter to anybody whether stocks go up or down, whether or not Amazon beats the street? While Americans will likely never know the truth, because even though Ghislaine Maxwell is purportedly agreeing to testify to congress, how does anybody know whether whatever she has to say is truthful? There is a multitude of reasons why she would be willing to testify, very few of them involve spilling the actual beans.

The coverup will continue. America, maybe not.

We're all sick and tired of the lies.

One final caveat: There's a very good chance that the sick, twisted, neocon tribe that has control of the country would like nothing more than a civil war or violent revolution, which would give them free reign to impose martial law and continue ramping up their efforts to "thin the herd." Don't fall for it. The fight is not left versus right or Democrat versus Republican. The fight is the people against the government. Never forget that.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 16, 2025:
Dow: 44,254.78, +231.49 (+0.53%)
NASDAQ: 20,730.49, +52.69 (+0.25%)
S&P 500: 6,263.70, +19.94 (+0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 20,485.74, +111.36 (+0.55%)

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

The Disposable Indispensible Nation and Reserve Currency Problem; Earnings Split, with ASML Hardest Hit

It's likely to be a rude shock when Americans finally realize that the world’s ”indispensable nation" is actually completely disposable. The world doesn't need the United States any more than it needs Israel, endless wars, constant in-fighting and bickering over political turf and censored, compliant media propaganda. The U.S. consumes more than its fair share of resources, with which it starts a lot of wars, spreads loads of propaganda and meddle in everyone's business, but actually produces little that anyone, or any country, really needs.

With President Trump's tariff tactics now almost perfectly aligned with neocon-inspired sanctions against just about every nation associated with Russia, China, or Iran, the tariff regime is likely to fail just as badly as have the sanctions. Eventually, many countries will see doing business with the United States as unnecessary and costly.

The 50% tariffs imposed recently are a case in point. America actually has a trade surplus with Brazil, so imposing high tariffs on the country - purportedly to meddle in their judicial matter of Trump's friend, Jair Bolsonaro - is tantamount to shooting oneself in the foot.

Brazilian president Lula’s response has been measured, but firm: “Brazil’s trade with the U.S. makes up just 1.7% of our GDP. You can’t call these figures vital. We will look for other partners.“

In other words, Lula essentially told Trump to shove his tariffs where the sun don't shine. Other countries are likely to do the same. No country is totally reliant upon the U.S. for export revenue. If trading with other, friendlier countries is better for business, the U.S. will become a pariah, shut out of international trade altogether.

An example of how this works in practice can be compared to how electric utility companies bill their customers a monthly "customer charge" ranging from $25 to $50 a month. No wattage is delivered for that money spent. It's only a fee charged for the privilege of being a "customer" of the utility. That's all well and good when electricity is difficult to produce on one's own, but take it from the growing number of off-grid preppers who derive all of their electricity from solar, wind, small hydro, or propane-driven generators.

If the utility is charging $40 a month, that comes to $480 a year. Taken over the life of solar panels - roughly 15-20 years - it adds up quickly. And that's just the customer charge. It doesn't take a math whiz to understand that if one can provide one's own electricity for an initial investment of $10,000 or less (actually a lot less for small households) and the system will be operational at almost no continuing cost for at least 10 years, saying bye-bye to the utility company is not a flight of fancy. Many off-gridders have already done the math and live well without a monthly utility bill. The same is true for wood-burning or coal-burning stoves for heat. Who needs natural gas when all the logs out in the woods can heat a home just as well.

The United States, via its proposed tariffs of 10%, 20%, 30% and more, will be viewed as excessive by many businesses located in countries from which they are exporting. Many will cease exporting to the United States. Those that continue, and pay the tariffs, are likely to pass the added cost along in higher prices or sub-standard goods. Either way, the American public is going to pay while the government collects. It's as if the federal government sees taxpayers as dollar mules, useful only to fund the rapacious, capricious wishes of the almighty federal government of "we the people."

It's not going to work. While the government may collect more revenue, does anybody expect them to stop overspending and balance their own budget? Not in this lifetime. The government, from the President and Congress down to the massive bureaucracy is not about to downsize itself. Anybody thinking that Trump's campaign promises - most of which he's already broken - are going to be upheld by congress and the deep state is simply naive.

The ultimate disaster of runaway hyper-inflation, followed by a deep depression, is bearing down upon the American people, most of whom cannot or refuse to see it coming.

As far as today's economic events are concerned, transporter J.B. Hunt (JBHT) saw earnings per share of $1.31 and revenue of $2.93 billion in its 2Q report delivered after the bell Tuesday. While roughly flat from a year ago ($1.32, $2.83 billion), both were a bit higher than anticipated and the stock is higher by about 1.5% mid-afternoon.

Pinnacle Financial (PNFP), reported $2.00 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $1.91 by $0.09. Shares are up more than one percent on Wednesday.

Financial giants Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) reported before the open. Bank of America missed on the bottom line, the stock down slightly. Goldman Sachs (GS) unsurprisingly said they made a ton of money on their trading desks, and the stock is rallying, though up only a half percent. Morgan Stanley (MS) had a solid second quarter, but is being punished, down two percent, as expectations may have been too high.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) non-GAAP EPS of $2.77 beat by $0.09; revenue of $23.7B beat by $840M, but it was their forward guidance and hefty dividend that has led to a massive six percent spike on the day, helping to lift the Dow Industrials.

ASML (ASML), the Dutch chip-making equipment manufacturer delivered a solid quarter but its guidance has left Wall Street agape. The stock is trading down more than eight percent mid-afternoon Wednesday, as tariff issues cloud future growth potential.

PPI was largely a non-event prior to the open. In June, a 0.3-percent advance in prices for final demand goods offset a 0.1-percent decrease in the index for final demand services. After all, these are American producers being gauged, a group which has little to nothing to do with tariff policies. If anything, input costs should be rising as tariffs become more prevalent. Inability to source materials at reasonable prices may become more difficult as tariffs take their tolls on foreign providers.

Look for PPI to rise over coming months, fueling even more inflationary fears.

Stocks are doing their usual melt-up on nothing, because there’s so much money just sloshing around within the financial community.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 15, 2025:
Dow: 44,023.29, -436.36 (-0.98%)
NASDAQ: 20,677.80, +37.47 (+0.18%)
S&P 500: 6,243.76, -24.80 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 20,374.38, -207.07 (-1.01%)

Drive-by Post: Stock Futures Split Ahead of PPI

Editor's Note: Due to unavoidable scheduling conflicts, Money Daily's usual pre-market post will be only a place-holder this morning. Later today, July 16, a more complete posting will be made, likely mid-afternoon. Reporting after Tuesday's close: J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Pinnacle Financial (PNFP). Wednesday (before open) Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), PNC Bank (PNC), ASML (ASML); (after close) Synovus (SNV), Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Airlines (UAL). Futures are spolit, with Dow up, NASDAQ and S&P lower awaiting release of June PPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 8:30 am ET. At the Close, Tuesday, July 15, 2025: Dow: 44,023.29, -436.36 (-0.98%) NASDAQ: 20,677.80, +37.47 (+0.18%) S&P 500: 6,243.76, -24.80 (-0.40%) NYSE Composite: 20,374.38, -207.07 (-1.01%)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

China Infrastructure Puts America's to Shame; CPI at 2.9% is Not Close to Fed Target of 2.0%. Inflation Is Returning, Not Defeated

Why do American politicians want to go to war with China?

Possibly, part of the answer lays in just how badly Chinese technology is beating U.S. technology, especially when it comes to infrastructure. Bear in mind that in November, 2021, Joe Biden signed into law a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Faster trains? Better roads? High speed rural broadband access? Rebuilt bridges? Mostly no.

Excessive graft, kickbacks, and congress lining their own pockets? Yep.

In China, travelers can ride a the world's fastest train from Beijing to Shanghai (or vice versa) at speeds of up to and beyond 350 km/h (217 mph), making the 1,302 km (809 mi) trip in roughly four-and-a-half hours, at a cost of $135 - $150.

Comparably, a train trip of nearly 800 miles - New York City to Chicago, Illinois - takes about 20 hours by train (usually more) and costs over $300.

So, should we bomb China just for being so much more technologically advanced and cheaper? Not really. If anything, the U.S. should copy their successes, but that would run counter to the usual political argument that they're evil commies. Seriously, U.S. politicians have sold out their constituents to special interests with bribes, kickbacks, and worse, otherwise known as campaign contributions.

This kind of comparison is something that should trouble all Americans, and there are certainly many more, and not just with China. Many other countries - mostly in Asia or the Pacific Rim - have better infrastructure than the United States, by far. From cheap, fast broadband in Malaysia to bullet trains in Japan, the U.S. fails on many levels, yet Americans are told by politicians and the mainstream media that they live in the best, most-advanced, most free country in the world. The level of hubris and propaganda is disturbing, to say the least.

Tuesday morning in America brings second quarter earnings reports from some of the nation's biggest banks including JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK).

Also reporting Tuesday morning are chain grocer, Albertsons (ACI), and electronics firm, Ericsson (ERIC).

Analysts are mixed on JP Morgan's results. Excluding one-off costs, JP Morgan earned $4.96 per share, compared with the $4.48 per share that analysts were expecting, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Provision for credit losses was $2.85 billion, compared with $3.05 billion a year earlier.

There should be little argument about the direction of this company. Year-ago EPS was $6.12. First quarter EPS was $5.07. FAIL.

Citigroup (C) reported 2Q earnings of $1.96, against last quarter's $1.99 and year-ago, $1.57. Shares are marginally higher, up less than one percent.

Wells Fargo reported earnings, excluding one-time costs, of $1.54 per share on revenue of $20.8 billion for the second quarter, beating Wall Street estimates for profit of $1.41 and revenue of $20.7 billion. Comparisons to year-ago ($1.34) and prior quarter ($1.28) were positive, but the stock is lower by more than two percent before the bell due to reducing its provision for credit losses to $1.01 billion in the quarter from $1.24 billion a year ago, which aided the earnings number.

BlackRock (BLK) reported record AUM of $12.53 trillion, but missed on the top line (revenue). Despite glowing media reports, shares are lower heading toward the open.

State Street (STT) showed non-GAAP 2Q EPS of $2.53, topping estimates of $2.36. Year-ago was $2.15. Prior quarter EPS was $2.04. Shares are flat.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) non-GAAP EPS was $1.94. EPS from 2024 2Q was $1.51. First quarter EPS, $1.58, but those figures, like State Street's were GAAP-compliant. Why are two of the largest funding banks in the country using non-GAAP accounting, usually reserved for startups and penny stocks? Obviously, there's something wrong there. BK is down three percent in pre-market trading.

Albertson's and Ericsson are both lower in pre-market trading.

All of these earnings reports preceded the release of June CPI from the BLS. Their press release was sobering:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9 percent in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month. The index for food increased 0.3 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent increase in May. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and airline fares were among the major indexes that decreased in June.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending June, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending May. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index
decreased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ending June. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.

As Money Daily anticipated, June CPI showed inflation re-emerging. Anybody who shops for food or dines out knows that prices have been increasing again, which is on top of the high price hikes from 2023 and 2024. With this information in hand, there's little chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at their next meeting, July 29-30. Will President Trump still be haranguing Chairman Powell to cut rates? He may, because, for all his education and training in economics (Wharton), he's committed to Keynesian policies and getting bad advice from his economic team.

Despite headline CPI year-over-year the hottest since February, stock futures shot higher on the release. Apparently, monthly core CPI printing below expectations (+0.1% vs. +0.2% MoM expected) is a win, as opposed to the year-over-year rise of +2.9%. Once the initial knee-jerk higher response on stock futures was in the books, they began to come down, though the S&P and NASDAQ were still positive at 9:00 am ET.

As some are asking, Is it just me or does 2.9% sound a whole lot more like 3 than 2?

While the Fed might want everybody to believe they've completely wiped out inflation, there's absolutely no truth to that statement. Inflation is nowhere near their target of two percent annually. It has remained closer to three percent since they stopped raising rates in July 2023 at 5.25-5.50%, then lowered them a full percent in September, November, and December 2024 with cuts of 0.50%, 0.25%. and 0.25%, respectively.

In case anybody hasn't noticed. Prices most most things - and especially food and energy - have not come down much in the past year. Defeating inflation should be represented by CPI in the red on a monthly basis, not these piddling +0.1, +0.2, +0.3 percent gains that have become common. At two percent inflation, the purchasing power is halved in 30 years. At three percent, it's cut in half in just 20.

Anybody who has the capability should be looking to move to other countries, preferably ones that aren't run by central bank and political sociopaths.

America is doomed and its failings have become obvious to the rest of the world. Prepare for hyper-inflation within two years. Weimar America is within reach!

At the Close, Monday, July 14, 2025:
Dow: 44,459.65, +88.14 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 20,640.33, +54.80 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 6,268.56, +8.81 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 20,581.45, +33.78 (+0.16%)

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Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	40.00	49.00	44.63	44.06
1 oz silver bar:	39.00	51.95	46.03	45.42
1 oz gold coin:	3,446.10	3,594.61	3,510.31	3,503.43
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