Thus, to say that stocks are overvalued would be an extreme understatement. Some of it is because of the dollar's recent decline, from a high on the Dollar Index of 109.96 on January 13, to the current 96.99, a drop of 11.80% in just six months - that's huge in terms of the world's reserve currency. Alternately, the other reserves in central bank coffers - euros and gold - are both appreciating.
Gains in the stock market are proxies for the debasement of the backing currency. All said and done, equity investors are still losing. The Dow is up 5.37%; NASDAQ, up 6.68%; S&P, up 6.76% year-to-date, so, more dip-buying, adding to winning positions, and staking out speculative positions within the framework of buybacks and a declining dollar remains the near term outlook.
Signed by President Trump on Independence Day, passage of the big, beautiful continuing resolution assures inflation will remain unleashed until something breaks, ostensibly, that being the U.S. consumer.
Stocks
Higher. Longer. On the shortened week which ended with a half session Thursday the Dow closed within spitting distance of its all-time high (45,014.04, Dec. 4, 2024). There is a nearly 100% certainty that it will exceed that number in the week ahead.
The Dow and other majors put in reasonable gains for the week, though the best performance was on the Transportation Average, up 3.56%.
The week ahead will feature a few early second quarter earnings reports, the most impactful possibly being Delta Airlines (DAL) which will be releasing on Thursday before the opening bell. Also that morning, Helen of Troy (HELE) and agricultural giant Conagra (CAG) report. After the close on Thursday, WD-40 (WDFC) and Levi's (LEVI) release.
There won't be much to ponder on the data front, with the week ahead focused on two somewhat parallel events: the BRICS Summit in Brasil Monday and Tuesday (July 5, 6) and the expiration of the 90-day grace period on Trump's tariffs on Wednesday, the 7th.
What develops in both scenarios will likely go a long way towards determining the future of international trade and finance.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 05/30/2025 | 4.33 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.11 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.28 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.38 | 4.31 | 4.14 |
| 06/13/2025 | 4.23 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.09 |
| 06/20/2025 | 4.20 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 4.39 | 4.40 | 4.29 | 4.07 |
| 06/27/2025 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.49 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.26 | 3.97 |
| 07/03/2025 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.50 | 4.42 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.07 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 05/30/2025 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.92 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.13 | 4.31 | 4.51 | 4.99 | 4.97 |
| 06/13/2025 | 3.96 | 3.90 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.90 |
| 06/20/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.96 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.90 | 4.89 |
| 06/27/2025 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 4.29 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
| 07/03/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.35 | 4.87 | 4.86 |
Yields were elevated at the low end of the curve through the middle, tapering with the longer maturities (10-year note, +6 basis points; 30-year bond, +1 basis point).
The indication is higher rates at the low end, especially after the June non-farm payroll report exceeded estimates, with 147,000 new jobs gained during the month. The effect of the solid jobs data pushed 1-month yields to their highest in more than a month, suggesting that the Fed will be unable to justify any cut to the federal funds rate at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.
Spreads were spanked down, with 2s-10s dropped nine basis points to +47 and full spectrum at +51, both down substantially, which, as opposed to the most recent condition, is optimistic. There is a growing perception in fixed income markets that some stability and possible agreement between the fiscal and monetary sides of the U.S. economy may be emergent. The combination of passage of the latest continuing resolution (the big, beautiful one) and Thursday's positive jobs report favors expansion and a backing off from near-crisis conditions in the banking sector.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
Oil/Gas
Edward Dowd of Phinance Technologies believes WTI crude could go as low as $30/barrel within the context of a deep recession in the near to medium term (6-12 months), which he also believes is of high probability.
Whether or not Mr. Dowd is eventually proven correct over time, WTI crude oil closed out the week at $65.15, just pennies ahead of last week's (6/27) close of $65.07 and a far cry from the $74.04 two weeks past (6/20). Price erosion is possible depending on global affairs and the stability of various developed economies. No doubt, the temporary peace between Israel and Iran will contribute to keeping oil prices deflated.
Gas prices have followed oil's path.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.11, a six-cent drop from last week, and that over a busy three-day weekend.
The highest prices in the country remained in California, at $4.54, down three cents on the week.
Prices at the traditional low end are dropping quickly, led by Oklahoma ($2.64), Texas ($2.66) and Mississippi ($2.67). Other states in the Southeast were also down over the course of the week. Tennessee ($2.72), Louisiana and South Carolina ($2.73), Alabama and Arkansas ($2.74) are all down by at least five cents from last week. Georgia dropped from $2.91 to $2.87, though Florida punched back up to $3.06. North Carolina dropped nine cents to $2.83.
The Northeast is still led on the high side by Pennsylvania ($3.31), down seven cents. All other New England and East coast states remained above $3,00, though New Hampshire and Rhode Island came in at $3.01. Maryland follows Pennsylvania on the high side, at $3.18.
Midwest states are topped by Illinois ($3.41), though the price is down seven cents. Kentucky ($2.82) is the lowest in the region, followed by Ohio ($2.84), Missouri ($2.87), Kansas ($2.88) Nebraska and North Dakota ($2.89), leaving just Illinois, Indiana ($3.11), and Michigan ($3.12) above $3.00.
Along with California, Washington ($4.40) are the only ones above $4, as Oregon checks in at an even $4.00. Nevada ($3.72) dropped three cents. Arizona ($3.21) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain, at $2.81. Idaho ($3.39), and Utah ($3.27) each saw prices drop.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in two more states this week than last, with now 22 making the grade. If the Middle East situation remains relatively peaceful and there's no significant turmoil from BRICS or the end of Trump's 90-day tariff grace period, prices should continue to come down through summer into fall.
Bitcoin
This week: $108,808.00
Last week: $108,168.60
2 weeks ago: $102,703.00
6 months ago: $101,731.00
One year ago: $58,088.72
Five years ago: $9,710.92
All of crypto is a massive fraud. With the U.S. and Europe (Western powers) increasingly leaning toward crypto assets like stablecoins and CBDCs, people around the world may soon be faced with a currency crisis in which they will be largely forced to choose between crypto and gold-backed currencies. Ought to be a no-brainer, but, the world being led largely by sociopaths who push their narratives through a highly-propagandized media, the choices will be presented as difficult.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.13; last week: 90.85
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 6/6: $3,331.00
Gold price 6/13: $3,452.60
Gold price 6/20: $3,384.40
Gold price 6/27: $3,286.10
Gold price 7/3: $3,346.50
Silver price 6/6: $36.13
Silver price 6/13: $36.37
Silver price 6/20: $35.95
Silver price 6/27: $36.17
Silver price 7/3: $37.13
Silver's close above $37/ounce was the first since late 2011, and, at that time, the price was going down. This time actually IS different.
The Financial Times reports that China has made at least 10 mining acquisitions in 2024, underpinning the country's need for raw materials, in addition to its voracious appetite for gold and silver. China has been actively seeking foreign partnerships for a chain of gold vaults throughout the Global South. Details of this ongoing development can be found on the money page of the July issue of idleguy.com, along with additional speculation over the developing multi-polar economic storm.
It's becoming quite clear that gold will play a role in the future of global finance and economics. July 1 marked the adoption of gold as a Tier 1 Asset for American banks, which have shifted their positions in favor of precious metals after decades of being willing participants in various gold suppression schemes, especially on the COMEX and through mechanisms such as the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund.
As U.S. hegemony continues to wane, true money - gold - is replacing U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds as the preferred reserve asset at most central banks. The era of price suppression is coming to an abrupt end. The gold price may appreciate at a more rapid pace shortly, though that is still largely dependent on geo-politics and the intentions of the global banking cartel. A severe clash between the West and BRICS-aligned nations could result in an expansion of the developing economic war into a kinetic, military confrontation.
Cooler heads may eventually prevail. Insight can be gained from developments in the Middle East and Ukraine. If those conflicts are soon resolved, there is a chance that President Trump's wish to be remembered as a "peace president" may be fulfilled. Naturally, resistance will come from neocons and the MIC in Europe and the United States.
The main question regarding global politics may come down to a "Who's the Boss?" condition between militants and economists, mostly of the Austrian kind.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median | |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 38.11 | 49.00 | 42.31 | 42.53 | |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 39.00 | 49.99 | 44.52 | 44.88 | |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,445.53 | 3,570.48 | 3,502.54 | 3,494.40 | |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,464.93 | 3,553.61 | 3,501.08 | 3,496.62 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell marginally this week, to $43.56, a decline of 14 cents from the June 29 price of $43.70 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Well, next year will make the grand 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States of America. While it is likely to be a stick image of what the original Fouding Fathers had envisioned, there's still a very good chance that it will still rank as one of the more prosperous and free countries in the world.
We shall see.
At the Close, Thursday, July 3, 2025:
Dow: 44,828.53, +344.11 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ: 20,601.10, +208.00 (+1.02%)
S&P 500: 6,279.35, +51.93 (+0.83%)
NYSE Composite: 20,725.79, +128.89 (+0.63%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1009.26 (+2.30%)
NASDAQ: +327.64 (+1.62%)
S&P 500: +106.28 (+1.72%)
NYSE Composite: +387.38 (+1.90%)
Dow Transports: +552.29 (+3.56%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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