Tuesday, July 15, 2025

China Infrastructure Puts America's to Shame; CPI at 2.9% is Not Close to Fed Target of 2.0%. Inflation Is Returning, Not Defeated

Why do American politicians want to go to war with China?

Possibly, part of the answer lays in just how badly Chinese technology is beating U.S. technology, especially when it comes to infrastructure. Bear in mind that in November, 2021, Joe Biden signed into law a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Faster trains? Better roads? High speed rural broadband access? Rebuilt bridges? Mostly no.

Excessive graft, kickbacks, and congress lining their own pockets? Yep.

In China, travelers can ride a the world's fastest train from Beijing to Shanghai (or vice versa) at speeds of up to and beyond 350 km/h (217 mph), making the 1,302 km (809 mi) trip in roughly four-and-a-half hours, at a cost of $135 - $150.

Comparably, a train trip of nearly 800 miles - New York City to Chicago, Illinois - takes about 20 hours by train (usually more) and costs over $300.

So, should we bomb China just for being so much more technologically advanced and cheaper? Not really. If anything, the U.S. should copy their successes, but that would run counter to the usual political argument that they're evil commies. Seriously, U.S. politicians have sold out their constituents to special interests with bribes, kickbacks, and worse, otherwise known as campaign contributions.

This kind of comparison is something that should trouble all Americans, and there are certainly many more, and not just with China. Many other countries - mostly in Asia or the Pacific Rim - have better infrastructure than the United States, by far. From cheap, fast broadband in Malaysia to bullet trains in Japan, the U.S. fails on many levels, yet Americans are told by politicians and the mainstream media that they live in the best, most-advanced, most free country in the world. The level of hubris and propaganda is disturbing, to say the least.

Tuesday morning in America brings second quarter earnings reports from some of the nation's biggest banks including JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK).

Also reporting Tuesday morning are chain grocer, Albertsons (ACI), and electronics firm, Ericsson (ERIC).

Analysts are mixed on JP Morgan's results. Excluding one-off costs, JP Morgan earned $4.96 per share, compared with the $4.48 per share that analysts were expecting, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Provision for credit losses was $2.85 billion, compared with $3.05 billion a year earlier.

There should be little argument about the direction of this company. Year-ago EPS was $6.12. First quarter EPS was $5.07. FAIL.

Citigroup (C) reported 2Q earnings of $1.96, against last quarter's $1.99 and year-ago, $1.57. Shares are marginally higher, up less than one percent.

Wells Fargo reported earnings, excluding one-time costs, of $1.54 per share on revenue of $20.8 billion for the second quarter, beating Wall Street estimates for profit of $1.41 and revenue of $20.7 billion. Comparisons to year-ago ($1.34) and prior quarter ($1.28) were positive, but the stock is lower by more than two percent before the bell due to reducing its provision for credit losses to $1.01 billion in the quarter from $1.24 billion a year ago, which aided the earnings number.

BlackRock (BLK) reported record AUM of $12.53 trillion, but missed on the top line (revenue). Despite glowing media reports, shares are lower heading toward the open.

State Street (STT) showed non-GAAP 2Q EPS of $2.53, topping estimates of $2.36. Year-ago was $2.15. Prior quarter EPS was $2.04. Shares are flat.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) non-GAAP EPS was $1.94. EPS from 2024 2Q was $1.51. First quarter EPS, $1.58, but those figures, like State Street's were GAAP-compliant. Why are two of the largest funding banks in the country using non-GAAP accounting, usually reserved for startups and penny stocks? Obviously, there's something wrong there. BK is down three percent in pre-market trading.

Albertson's and Ericsson are both lower in pre-market trading.

All of these earnings reports preceded the release of June CPI from the BLS. Their press release was sobering:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9 percent in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month. The index for food increased 0.3 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent increase in May. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and airline fares were among the major indexes that decreased in June.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending June, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending May. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index
decreased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ending June. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.

As Money Daily anticipated, June CPI showed inflation re-emerging. Anybody who shops for food or dines out knows that prices have been increasing again, which is on top of the high price hikes from 2023 and 2024. With this information in hand, there's little chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at their next meeting, July 29-30. Will President Trump still be haranguing Chairman Powell to cut rates? He may, because, for all his education and training in economics (Wharton), he's committed to Keynesian policies and getting bad advice from his economic team.

Despite headline CPI year-over-year the hottest since February, stock futures shot higher on the release. Apparently, monthly core CPI printing below expectations (+0.1% vs. +0.2% MoM expected) is a win, as opposed to the year-over-year rise of +2.9%. Once the initial knee-jerk higher response on stock futures was in the books, they began to come down, though the S&P and NASDAQ were still positive at 9:00 am ET.

As some are asking, Is it just me or does 2.9% sound a whole lot more like 3 than 2?

While the Fed might want everybody to believe they've completely wiped out inflation, there's absolutely no truth to that statement. Inflation is nowhere near their target of two percent annually. It has remained closer to three percent since they stopped raising rates in July 2023 at 5.25-5.50%, then lowered them a full percent in September, November, and December 2024 with cuts of 0.50%, 0.25%. and 0.25%, respectively.

In case anybody hasn't noticed. Prices most most things - and especially food and energy - have not come down much in the past year. Defeating inflation should be represented by CPI in the red on a monthly basis, not these piddling +0.1, +0.2, +0.3 percent gains that have become common. At two percent inflation, the purchasing power is halved in 30 years. At three percent, it's cut in half in just 20.

Anybody who has the capability should be looking to move to other countries, preferably ones that aren't run by central bank and political sociopaths.

America is doomed and its failings have become obvious to the rest of the world. Prepare for hyper-inflation within two years. Weimar America is within reach!

At the Close, Monday, July 14, 2025:
Dow: 44,459.65, +88.14 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 20,640.33, +54.80 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 6,268.56, +8.81 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 20,581.45, +33.78 (+0.16%)

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