Another gauge of market value, the Buffett Indicator, used by legendary investor Warren Buffett to time market moves, measures the total price of listed stocks against current GDP. It is a valuation multiple used to assess how expensive or cheap the aggregate stock market is at a given point in time.
Total market cap for U.S. listed stocks is currently at $ 63,834.2 billion ($63.834 trillion) while GDP is running at an annual rate of $29,955 billion ($29.955 trillion), making the ratio 213.1%, an all-time high, according to the website, gurufocus.com, which also provides other measures of stock market valuation.
Fortune magazine has the ratio - using the Wilshire 5000 for stock valuation - at 212% of GDP.
It's worth bearing in mind that GDP, according to the government, is likely to be grossly inflated, meaning that these indicators are not just flashing red lights, they've got sirens blaring, and smoke billowing, like a four-alarm fire.
But, keep buying. Stocks, like real estate in the mid-2000s, always go up. Other factors to keep in mind are the deeply ingrained Plunge Protection Team (PPT), otherwise known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which has routinely stepped in to keep stock prices from falling out of bed. They're usually resolute about their function and may be on top of markets constantly as the U.S. is challenged by BRICS, skeptics, current events and even itself to deliver a narrative of green lights and all's well. The New York Fed's trading desk and other market insiders like the Exchange Stabilization Fund are also probably hard at work keeping the plates spinning.
There's a certain kind of sadness to all of this, as the president, his administration, and Republicans in congress are loathe to show any kind of weakness, be it military, moral, or, in this case, financial. President Trump has once again chosen to use the stock market as a yardstick for American greatness, and, with all-time highs occurring regularly now, his use of the bully pulpit to further the "America First" and "Golden Age" narrative will be a major force in the constantly-evolving political/social media spin apparatus.
One more thing. This line from George Orwell's 1984 may be of some significance:
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Stocks
Stocks made minor advances during the week, with the NASDAQ and S&P making new highs on a daily basis. The Dow continued to fall short of its own record and the transportation average, despite a solid advance, remains well below its records.
There are three big events this week which should impact markets. The FOMC meeting, Tuesday and Wednesday, July 29 and 30, will be closely watched. There is rampant speculation that the Fed will cut the federal funds target interest rate by either 25 or 50 basis points, though it's difficult to ascertain what would be the Fed's rationale, given the latest inflation readings were hardly dovish. Additionally, Trump's tariffs aren't supposed to take effect until August 1, so there's got to be some weight assigned to that.
The initial estimate of second quarter GDP will be announced prior to the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday. The GDP figures come out before the opening bell, at 8:30 am ET, and the Fed policy decision at 2:00 pm ET. Surely, the Fed will have advance knowledge of the GDP estimate, so whatever decision they make will be at least partially guided by that, so they can start off their statement with the usual garble, "Recent data showed the general economy grew at a blah, blah, blah..."
If GDP is anywhere above two percent, the Fed would be more inclined to keep rates steady at the current 4.25-4.50%. Should it come in at somewhere under one percent, that might supply cover for a rate cut. They're going to do whatever suits their best interests, and whether or not Chairman Powell is in a mood to appease the president by cutting will be present in the directive. Cutting interest rates when stocks are at all-rime highs and the money supply is increasing would be nothing short of throwing gasoline onto an already-raging fire, which is why the Fed shouldn't do it. As with everything and anything coming out of Washington, D.C. these days, making irrational or improper decisions (what used to be known as policy mistakes) cannot be ruled out.
On Friday, the Employment Situation (Non-farm Payrolls via the BLS) for July 2025 is scheduled to be released on August 1, 2025, at 8:30 am Eastern Time. That's the third leg of this week's economic data stool. Jobs haven't been cut to any degree, so a solid number is likely. With illegal immigrants either already deported, hiding from ICE, or self-deporting, there is an abundance of low-to-medium-skill jobs available across the country. It's difficult to imagine the unemployment rate going up under those conditions.
The most acceptable scenario would be GDP around 2.2%, no rate cut, and job gains of between 150,000 and 200,000. Americans and the rest of the world will find out what's up in broad terms this week.
Second quarter earnings calendar this week is absolutely jam-packed. Here's a sampling of some of the most important:
Monday (7/28): (before open) NewGold (NGD), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), Provident Bank (PROV); (after close) Waste Management (WM), Rambus (RMBS), Nucor (NUE), Whirlpool (WHR), Celestica (CLS)
Tuesday (7/29): (before open) Boeing (BA), SoFi (SOFI), Merck (MRK) Proctor & Gamble (PG), Spotify (SPOT), PayPal (PYPL), United Health Group (UNH), UPS (UPS) ; (after close) Stabucks (SBUX), Visa (V), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Teradyne (TER), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Seagate (STX), Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Wednesday (7/30): (before open) Altria (MO), Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), Harley Davidson (HOG), Etsy (ETSY) Generac (GNRC), Humana (HUM), KraftHeinz (KHC), Hershey (HSY); (after close) Robinhood (HOOD), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Carvana (CVNA), Ford (F), Kinross (KGC), Lam Research (LRCX), Qualcomm (QCOM)
Thursday (7/31): (before open) Mastercard (MA), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Abbvie (ABBV), CVS Health (CVS), Cigna Financial (CI), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLS), Roblox (RBLX); (after close) Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase (COIN), Roku (ROKU), Reddit (RDDT), Cloudfare (NET), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Enovix (ENVX)
Friday (8/1): (before open) Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Dominion Energy (D), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Regeneron (REGN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL).
To say the least, this is going to be a busy week for anybody involved in policy or finance.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 06/20/2025 | 4.20 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 4.39 | 4.40 | 4.29 | 4.07 |
| 06/27/2025 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.49 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.26 | 3.97 |
| 07/03/2025 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.50 | 4.42 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4.37 | 4.39 | 4.47 | 4.41 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| 07/18/2025 | 4.35 | 4.39 | 4.46 | 4.40 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.08 |
| 07/25/2025 | 4.37 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 06/20/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.96 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.90 | 4.89 |
| 06/27/2025 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 4.29 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
| 07/03/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.35 | 4.87 | 4.86 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.99 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.96 | 4.96 |
| 07/18/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.44 | 4.99 | 5.00 |
| 07/25/2025 | 3.91 | 3.86 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 4.92 | 4.92 |
Yields on long term maturities got spanked down pretty well this week, suggesting that not everybody in investment-land was buying the stock market rally. Though the movement was not substantial week over week, the interim in 10-year notes and 30-year bonds was, shown rather clearly by the eight basis point drop on the 30 year, robust. Also, the "kink" of the 20-year bond being higher than the 30, has disappeared. They've been equal or even properly adjusted for a couple of weeks now.
Full spectrum spreads from 30 days out to 30 years were slashed from +65 down to +55. 2s-10s, last wek at the highest of Money Daily's records, +56, got squished back to +49. Order is being restored.
Some wild yield swings may occur around the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, and again on Friday with the NFP report for July. Or not. It all depends on the data and what the Fed conjures up for it's policy decision and follow-up press conference.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week at $65.07, a drop of nearly a dollar from last Friday's closeout at $66.03. WTI crude has been stuck in a range between $65 and $67 since the ed of June, with no real direction being suggested by charts or geo-politics. Like everything other than stocks, the summer doldrums have serious interests sidelined, with prices fairly stable, awaiting the next round of tariff trauma, resolution to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the upcoming FOMC meeting or some exogenous "black swan" event, which by definition, cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy.
With economies worldwide subdued by slack demand and stagnation, the next move in oil is more likely to be lower rather than to a higher level. There's simply no impetus for a move to higher ground. That assumes none of the major players goes "off the farm", which is always possible.
Like oil, gas prices have simply leveled off over the past month. This week, Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.13, one penny higher than last week.
As usual, California has the highest prices in the country, $4.45, down three cents on the week.
Prices at the low end are led by Mississippi and Oklahoma (both $2.69). Louisiana ($2.73) and Texas ($2.75) are next, followed by Alabama ($2.77), Tennessee and South Carolina ($2.78) and Arkansas ($2.79). North Carolina ($2.86) and Georgia ($2.89) round out he sub-$3 southeast, with Florida ($3.09) bucking the trend.
Pennsylvania ($3.18) sits atop the Northeast states, down three cents on the week. Other than New Hampshire, all other New England and East coast states remained at or above $3.00, ranging from New York at $3.13 to New Jersey and Virginia right at an even $3.00.
Midwest states were led by Illinois ($3.37), the price down another five cents on the week. Kansas ($2.84) is the lowest in the region, followed by North Dakota ($2.87), Missouri ($2.88), and Wisconsin ($2.89). Along with Illinois, only Michigan ($3.23), Ohio ($3.09), and Indiana (3.06) are over $3.00. Colorado remained below $3 for a second straight week ($2.98).
Along with California, Washington ($4.35) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon remained down a few cents below, at $3.94. Nevada ($3.66) dropped two cents. Arizona ($3.15) continues to come down, but is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a comparative bargain, at $2.91, though that is up 16 cents from last week. Idaho ($3.46) and Utah ($3.32) were unchanged.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 22 states, the same number as last week.
Bitcoin
This week: $118,275.80
Last week: $117,859.20
2 weeks ago: $119,022.00
6 months ago: $102,938.00
One year ago: $68,017.18
Five years ago: $11,811.00
Bitcoin was flat and has been since making new highs about two weeks ago (July 14). A day will come when all the Wall Street types that have been pushing the crypto myth - Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, even grifters like Anthony Scaramuchi (the Mooch) - will liquidate their holdings, sell down their ETFs and leave the remains to bag-holders.
Crypto is a massive scam. There's just no other way to put it. It was created to condition the human mind to digital currencies, in advance of government/central bank-controlled CBDCs, and it's working. There are millions of rubes captivated by the allure of money which has no intrinsic value, no basis, that cannot be seen or touched, which is as the banking cartel would have it.
As it is, the global reserve currency, the mighty U.S. dollar ($US), is backed by "the full faith and credit" of the United States government, over which people have lost faith because the government is comprised of spendthrifts who shouldn't be allowed credit. The proof is in the $37 trillion pile of debt that continues to grow.
It's sad to think that people are led to believe that moving their money out of one fiat currency - the dollar, or euros or yen or what have you - to another entity that is completely unbacked is some form of financial genius and eventual economic salvation. Bitcoin, memecoins, altcoins, stablecoins and all of the shitcan derivatives are pure nonsense, which, in today's environment, is acceptable.
Good luck, all you "coiners" and "hodlers."
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.10; last week: 87.34
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 6/27: $3,286.10
Gold price 7/3: $3,346.50
Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Silver price 6/27: $36.17
Silver price 7/3: $37.13
Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42
Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 42.00 | 51.45 | 44.65 | 43.51 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 34.00 | 50.70 | 44.98 | 46.21 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,453.30 | 3,597.70 | 3,517.86 | 3,502.60 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,464.69 | 3,581.69 | 3,511.39 | 3,509.53 |
Gold and silver prices were much higher early in the week than the closing price on Friday afternoon in New York, at least that's what the usual suspects at the CME and COMEX would have one believe. Gold was as high as $3445.70, a five week high, and silver hit a 14-year high at $39.90 early Wednesday morning.
What occurred from that point forward was nothing short of desperation on the part of the Western economies' suppression teams. The net result was smack in the paper markets with physical moving further away from the obviously-rigged derivative market.
One can call it premia, premiums or simply retail markup, but the trend is clearly away from COMEX and LBMA price fixes toward a more level-headed environment based, not on pretentious paper pushing, but on real world experience. If miners are willing to continue to accept the global monetary cartel's insistence on keeping the prices of 1000-ounce silver bars, 100 troy ounce gold futures contracts (CME) and 400-troy-ounce (438.9-ounce; 27.4-pound; 12.4-kilogram) Good Delivery gold bars at prices below what the physical market demands, then the shame is on them for being so controlled by financiers rather than pursuing sound business practices.
Having paper derivatives set the price is pure folly, "putting the wagon before the horses," so to speak. It's only by ceding control of all monetary aspects of life to bankers' rules and fiat controls that the price of real money is "what we say it is," and nobody can say otherwise. Those days - of dollar dominance, money conjured out of thin air - are coming to a rapid end. Refusal in physical markets to adhere to the regimen devised some 50-odd years ago is becoming more and more evident with every paper smackdown, this latest one so grossly obvious as to make it laughable.
Clearly, judging by what is being offered and sold on eBay and at online retail merchants is not fully accepting the COMEX price. Even 10 ounce gold bars are priced well above $3,400 at retail. On eBay, even higher. One ounce gold coins and bars maintained their pricing power through the week. Silver is another case altogether. Being a much smaller market than gold, it is much easier to manipulate, as evidenced by the drop from $39.90 to $38.33 on the COMEX this week (Wednesday through Friday) and the lack of effect on physical bullion on eBay, a real market with competitive prices and robust demand, which was off merely by pennies from the prior week, not the $1.57 the COMEX would prefer.
There are those in this world who will not part with their gold or silver at these prices. As Western economies implode there will be more of them until the numbers reach what some people call "critical mass", a point at which gold and silver will be seen as what they really are, money, and paper as merely credit. There was a time, when governments were honest, that one could redeem paper credits for gold and/or silver. Those days were not that long ago in historical terms, a century or so removed. What is happening behind the scenes, in BRICS countries and those associated with them, is a movement towards honest money and an end to the tyrannical rule of central banks.
While it may seem like an eternity to wait out the purveyors of credit as substitutes for real money, the time is well spent stacking up one's future fortune.
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell marginally this week, to $44.84, a drop of 20 cents from the July 20 price of $45.04 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Last week’s WEEKEND WRAP closed with this comment:
The recent flak over the "Epstein Files" gives support to the theory that leaders of most Western nations - possibly excluding Japan - are fully compromised and wholly incompetent. With such a backdrop, free (for now) citizens should treat their governments with all the disrespect they so richly deserve, disregarding any ill consequences while working towards a future devoid of sick, twisted sociopaths in powerful positions.
We’ll stick with that and add that the sheer volume and importance of data and earnings announcements this week is sure to be overwhelming for some people. It might make the most sense to just stand back and watch, awestruck, as the wheels of economic turn at a quickened pace. For a mid-summer week, this one promises to be jumpy and bumpy.
At the Close, Friday, July 25, 2025:
Dow: 44,901.92, +208.01 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 21,108.32, +50.36 (+0.24%)
S&P 500: 6,388.64, +25.29 (+0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 20,950.45, +97.03 (+0.47%)
For the Week:
Dow: +559.73 (+1.26%)
NASDAQ: +212.66 (+1.02%)
S&P 500: +91.85 (+1.46%)
NYSE Composite: +408.89 (+1.99%)
Dow Transports: +502.73 (+3.17%)
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