Tuesday is Day Zero. Wednesday is Day One. Watch. Wait. See What Develops

All indications point to the last day of September and the first day of October to be significant dates in American history.

Events are converging toward some kind of radical shift or change which only those at the very epitome of the global power structure comprehend because they are the very ones driving the events. The federal government's 2025 fiscal year ends on the 30th of September, today. The 2026 fiscal year begins on October 30, tomorrow.

Speculation has run the gamut on what's to occur from a government shutdown to the launch of World War III. Tuesday's meeting of top U.S. commanders with the rank of brigadier general and the naval equivalent, admiral, or higher, at Quntico, Virginia is also driving fears that President Trump - who is reportedly attending the meeting - and Department of Defense (recently changed by executive order to Department of War) head Pete Hegseth will be informing these high-ranking officers of battle plans military strategies.

While the gathering of top military personnel is not unusual, the timing, haste, and degree of this one has raised eyebrows among military observers and the general public. The White House has commented on the meeting, downplaying its importance. However, if anything has been learned from the first eight months of Trump's presidency, it thrives on secrecy and deception, so, the idea that this high-level meeting is about morale or downsizing or anything remotely ordinary is highly unlikely. Something's going on, and the public isn't allowed ot know what it is, which generally means that it's significant.

With a government shutdown at midnight on Tuesday a virtual lock, the military meeting could signal the beginning of martial law in the United States, which, considering how Trump has called for national guard troops to begin restoring order in big cities - from Chicago, to Portland, to Memphis - may not be so far-fetched.

Of course, it could be nothing more than posturing, to satiate allies in Europe and Asia (Japan, South Korea, Australia), but it doesn't appear to be something to be taken lightly.

In case the government does shut down - and that seems to be where this is headed ater Trump met with the leaders of both parties from the House and Senate on Monday and no progress was reported - here's a salient question that every American should ponder:

If the government, already $37 trillion in debt, does shut down at 00:00:01 Wednesday morning and has no funding for further operations, what authority do they actually wield?

As Day Zero unfolds, it might be useful to keep a sharp eye on the stock and bond markets, especially the latter, since that is where all the truly big money changes hands. If yields begin to ramp higher, it might be a signal that money is fleeing even the non-risk asset of treasury bills, notes and bonds. Declines on the stock market could also be a telling sign on Tuesday, though there is the distinct possibility that little will happen until Wednesday, when and if a government shutdown becomes a reality.

Yields on longer-dated maturities - 10s, 20s, and 30s, were lower on Monday and are trending lower early Tuesday, with the 10-year at 4.12%, down from 4.20% at the close, Friday.

Monday's action in stocks was nothing unusual, with all the major indices posting small gains. Other than the S&P closing with a number bearing the mark of the beast (6,661.21), there was nothing exciting or ominous about the stock market. In the face of what may be cataclysm, everything appeared calm, which, in an of itself, should serve as ample warning.

Heading into Tuesday's open, stock futures are down marginally. Dow: -55; NASDAQ: -18; S&P: -8. Gold and silver are off their recent highs, with gold nearly hitting $3,900 overnight, now leveled off around $3,842.40, and silver, having shot up as high as $47.34, is down around a dollar, at $46.35. WTI crude is well off recent fluffy highs, heading below $62/barrel.

Keep in mind that, even though Trump wanted to be known as a "peace president", he's been anything but. His boasting about ending seven wars (please, name three) in the face of continuing the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, falls on deaf ears.

Stay focused. Wait, watch, see what develops.

At the Close, Monday, September 29, 2025:
Dow: 46,316.07, +68.78 (+0.15%)
NASDAQ: 22,591.15, +107.09 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: 6,661.21, +17.51 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 21,497.55, +20.04 (+0.09%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Government Shutdown Looming; Gold, Silver Boom; September Payroll Data May Be Delayed; Congress, President Reportedly Far Apart

The U.S. government continues to flirt with disaster, as congress and the president play chicken over a possible shutdown, set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Barring congressional action and the president's signature, "non-essential" agencies could be shutdown until a deal is reached. Most people would experience little change, unless it gets serious. The Postal Service, for instance, would continue to operate. Social Security checks would continue to go out on time. SNAP food stamp benefits would arrive on schedule.

If the politicians in Washington were serious, everything would be shut down. The idea that paying retirees and doling out food stamps is an "essential" function belies the truth about Washington money schemes.

A government shutdown could delay Friday's scheduled jobs report, due out Friday at 8:30 am ET. That could cause some chaotic trading and speculation on whether or not the U.S. jobs market is in good health or not, the latest barrage of data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent conversations suggesting that there is trouble brewing in employment. Here's a rundown on what gets shut down and what remains open.

Financial markets will no doubt react to whatever the government decides to do. A short-term shutdown or a week or less wouldn't have much effect on stocks, generally. If the shutdown - which appears to be about a 70-80% certainty at this point - lasts longer, Wall Street might consider it something unwanted and stocks could be damaged, short term, especially those that rely on the federal government for business.

Defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and gold stand to outperform, while industrials and defense contractors face greater uncertainty according to Steven Cress, Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha, who offers an interesting market view on shutdown dynamics.

There's no bottom line on how a possible shutdown will turn out. Best strategists are suggesting to be defensive, buy some protection (put options), but try to remain calm as there will no doubt be plenty of noise with which to contend. Much of it will be meaningless. Some elements of this shutdown, such as the president promising to fire or permanently layoff (RIF, reduction in force) workers furloughed in case of a shutdown might make this shutdown different from those which came before, which amounted to a slight disturbance before markets got back to business as usual.

Stocks

Friday's boost on the majors didn't quite make up for the losses incurred earlier in the week. In an odd reversal, the Dow Jones Transportation Average was the only index to show weekly gains. All the others were down, though only slightly, wiht the most severe (if one can call it that) was on the NASDAQ, which fell 147.41 points (-0.65%).

Thus, stocks ended the week at an almost neutral stance. Given the general trend is for higher prices, overvaluation and fear of a government shutdown may keep a lid on things next week until there comes a resolution, if any. If economic data is delayed due to the shutdown, it would leave some analysts "flying blind," though, if the recent discoveries of just how flawed government data has become is any indication, the lack of government figures might force some players to actually do a little due diligence on individual stocks and various sectors.

Friday's Non-farm payroll report is the big cahuna of the week, though, as mentioned above, it may not make an appearance. Otherwise, third quarter earnings won't be out until late in the week after next, beginning, as usual, with an assortment of banking stocks.

There may be some consolidation in light of the current conditions. Tech, consumer discretionary, and industrials are likely to see some sideways movement.

The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed out the week at 39.84, near its recent high, but more than likely to get a boost when, and if, congress decides to keep the grift going, or, in layman's terms, keep the government open.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83
09/05/2025	4.29	4.24	4.24	4.07	4.05	3.85	3.65
09/12/2025	4.24	4.24	4.20	4.08	4.02	3.83	3.66
09/19/2025	4.19	4.16	4.14	4.03	3.98	3.81	3.60
09/26/2025	4.22	4.20	4.17	4.02	4.00	3.83	3.67

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92
09/05/2025	3.51	3.48	3.59	3.80	4.10	4.72	4.78
09/12/2025	3.56	3.52	3.63	3.81	4.06	4.65	4.68
09/19/2025	3.57	3.56	3.68	3.88	4.14	4.71	4.75
09/26/2025	3.63	3.66	3.76	3.96	4.20	4.74	4.77

There was some movement in the middle, or belly, of the curve this week, with a minor buyer's strike on 3s, 5s, and 7s, up 10, 8, and 8 basis points, respectively. Overall, if rumors of foreign investors opting out of treasuries in search of gold are true, the slack has been taken up by primary dealers and, increasingly, stablecoin outfits.

Spreads on 2s-10s were unmoved at +57 and remained elevated on full spectrum, at +55. Not much to see here as the Fed and its proxies are heading toward some level of curve control, with occasional forays into the mix by the U.S. Treasury. In case of a shutdown, don't expect Treasury to be doing much buying. Secretary Bessent will be busy keeping up with extraordinary measures to pay current and ongoing obligations.

One bright side to a government shutdown, if it becomes elongated, is that the world's public might get a real taste of just how tragically fragile the U.S. treasury market and the government has become.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55

Oil/Gas

Somewhat to the countercyclical, WTI crude oil moved higher, closing out the week in New York at $65.19, with a peak on Friday of $66.34 before settling out. Friday's price was up sharply from last week's $62.36. With everybody from the Saudis to Russians to U.S. shale producers drilling full bore, this week's gains are probably going to be short-lived as there is no indication that there's any shortage of oil or distillates anywhere.

Gas prices dropped seven cents from last week, the national average now $3.10, according to Gasbuddy.com.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining on top, at $4.65 per gallon, followed closely by Washington ($4.56) and joined in the $4 club by Oregon ($4.19), though all three states showed moderating prices through the week. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.53) at a multi-month low, followed by Mississippi ($2.64) and Louisiana ($2.71).

The Northeast remained above $3.00, with Virginia ($2.93), West Virginia ($2.96), Ohio ($2.86) and Kentucky ($2.78) bucking the trend. Indiana ($2.12), Illinois ($3.38) and Michigan ($3.00) form a $3-plus bloc. From Wisconsin ($2.83), Minnesota ($2.95) and North Dakota ($2.87) south, all states are sub-$3.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 25 states, up four from last week, concentrated in the South and Midwest with Ohio, Minnesota, Florida, and Colorado dropping below the line. The entire Southeast, out to New Mexico ($2.80) is under $3.00 a gallon. Gas in next door neighbor New Mexico is $3.57, making border hops appealing to cost-conscious drivers.

Bitcoin

This week: $109,980.20
Last week: $115,734.60
2 weeks ago: $115,368.20
6 months ago: $84,261.42
One year ago: $65,848.43
Five years ago: $11,367.93

The Ponzi has continues at stall speed, taking a slight hit this week. In case of a swoon in stocks and margin calls, the money to cover is going to come from bitcoin, not gold or silver, because, while precious metals have been on a tear, bitcoin has lagged severely, because it's not money and actually is just a clever math construct. Funds will be selling off bitcoin holdings faster than racehorses at Del Mar.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 81.73; last week: 85.76

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70
Gold price 9/19: $3,719.40
Gold price 9/26: $3,789.80

Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Silver price 9/12: $42.68
Silver price 9/19: $43.37
Silver price 9/26: $46.37

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	46.30	58.50	51.66	49.48
1 oz silver bar:	48.00	58.95	53.52	53.49
1 oz gold coin:	3,898.77	4,040.69	3,956.08	3,933.82
1 oz gold bar:	3,873.95	3,947.82	3,916.97	3,923.85

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained raced to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $52.04, a massive gain of $3.21 cents from the September 21 price of $48.83 per troy ounce.

Gold and silver continued to move higher, with silver leading the way over the near term. Year-to-date, gold is up 44.23%; silver, 59.58% after this week's huge move higher.

Silver is obviously in the cat-bird seat, having been mercilessly suppressed for decades and especially the past 14 years, it's finally about to go vertical. The all-time highs are approaching, but, understand, that level above $49 is not inflation-adjusted, so this recent move is probably just the beginning. $50 is the obvious target and once it heads beyond that there is little to no resistance. Wiht financial advisors now putting clients into gold allocations of anywhere from five to 20% of their portfolios, prices are going in one direction only and silver, the choice of speculators, will likely lead. $60, $80, and eventually triple-digit silver is no longer pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking, but quickly becoming a reality. The gold:silver ratio of 81.73 this week, down from highs above 100 earlier this year is still complete fiction. All indications are for a steep decline in the ratio as silver's value propositions and relationship to gold are re-discovered.

According to investopedia:

For hundreds of years, the gold-silver ratio did not fluctuate much. The ratio was fixed by governments to keep their official currencies stable.

The Roman Empire officially set the ratio at 12:1. In medieval Europe, it fell to 9.4:1 in 1350 but climbed back to 12:1 in the 1450s. The U.S. government fixed the ratio at 15:1 with the Coinage Act of 1792. It has only been at these obscene levels for the last 120 years or so.

Prepare to say goodbye to the COMEX and the London price fix. While they'll continue to operate, those old school pricing mechanisms are being gradually overtaken by honest price-setters with settlements in physical metal in Shanghai and soon, St. Petersburg and Dubai, as the West gives away authority to BRICS-related entities. Gold is already at record-high prices everywhere in the world. Silver will break through $50 an ounce soon enough, quite possibly by the end of the year. If silver reaches $50 before January 1, 2026, there's every possibility for $60 over the next year, as that would amount to a mere 20% gain.

WEEKEND WRAP

Keep some powder dry and buy protection. Puts and bullets are preferred.

At the Close, Friday, September 26, 2025:
Dow: 46,247.29, +299.97 (+0.65%)
NASDAQ: 22,484.07, +99.37 (+0.44%)
S&P 500: 6,643.70, +38.98 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 21,477.51, +140.52 (+0.66%)

For The Week:
Dow: -67.08 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: -147.41 (-0.65%)
S&P 500: -20.66 (-0.31%)
NYSE Composite: -16.46 (-0.08%)
Dow Transports: +119.01 (+0.77%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Is This Not the Financial Crisis You've Been Told to Be Looking For? GDP up 3.8% According to BEA; Why Worry?

As of Thursday's close, for the week, the Dow is down 367 points, the NASDAQ is off 246, and the S&P is 59 points lower. They're all down close to one percent. This comes as the BEA on Thursday revised second quarter GDP up to 3.8% in the final estimate, up from 3.3% in the August estimate and 3.0% in July.

As explained in Thursday's post, the declines are larger when measured after the spikes higher on Monday on the S&P and NASDAQ and Tuesday on the Dow.

Why aren't stocks going up? Does Wall Street not believe the numbers being presented by the government? Maybe they shouldn't. After all, the jobs numbers have been revised down massively the last two years, lower by more than 1.7 million than originally reported, so there's reason to believe that somebody's lying.

And how about the 2.8% increase in August Durable Goods Orders? Well, that figure got explained away pretty quickly by stripping out aircraft (Boeing), inflation and the Big Beautiful Bill's re-introduction of 100% bonus depreciation.

Friday morning's release of the PCE by the Commerce Department may change things, though it's confounding to understand why. Stock futures soared on data that showed PCE in August up 0.3% as expected, and up 2.7% on an annualized basis. Core PCE was measured as up 2.9% over the last 12 months. Apparently, three percent inflation is the new standard.

Worried about a government shutdown?

Don't be. There's a reason that the House and Senate are on recess just as the federal government faces a funding issue as the 2025 fiscal year ends (9/30) and the 2026 fiscal year begins (10/1). It's the same reason that October is usually when stock market crashes happen. When the government Fs up, Wall Street reacts. It's as common as clockwork, albeit, with a bit of a lag.

The government and Wall Street have been joined at the hip for a very long time. That's not changing and isn't changing because Donald J. Trump is president, or Charlie Kirk got shot and killed, or Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu is speaking at the United Nations on Friday, or that Secretary of Defense (or War, as President Trump likes to call it) has summoned roughly 800 top military commanders to Quantico, Virginia early next week.

While that last one is a bit of a puzzler as no details have been provided, it still shouldn't alarm anybody.

Nonetheless, people of varying stripes and cultures will get triggered over these events and conditions. Go ahead and vent if you must, but don't lose your mind over things that are just stitches in the tapestry that's been woven since the days of Vietnam, LBJ, and the peace movement of the 1960s. The people who control things in the United States, and by proxy, in the rest of the world, don't like peace, and don't want peace, because they don't profit from peace. They thrive on and profit from war, struggle, destruction, and devastation. If your life is in tatters, the folks at the very top of the economic and social structure will be smiling. There's no doubt that the wealthiest, most connected people in the world see regular citizens as less than pawns in a larger game. They have reasons to think that way. They have billions. The rest of the world has almost nothing.

That may come as a surprise to those who are actually doing well, who mostly ignore scary headlines, pay no attention to the news of the day and simply carry on with their lives as if nothing much is happening. Most people remain unaffected to a large degree in the grand scheme of things because the system has been fully integrated into their beliefs. They trust the government. They trust the news. They're blissfully ignorant, which is how the control freaks at the top want everyone to be.

It makes perfect sense to play along with whatever the big money interests are doing. It's largely profitable, especially if one is ale to discern the motives and sense the timing and it may not be all that difficult to predict when its time to plant seeds, when to nurture nature and when to reap the harvest. Patterns of agriculture have endured the centuries and are engrained into the fabric of economic life. Spring is time to plant. Summer is time to tend. Fall is time to reap the harvest and that's exactly what's about to occur.

The federal government isn't going to stop functioning and trying to control everybody's life even if the congress engineers a shutdown. Any shutdown that happens - and it looks like this one is going to happen - will hardly be noticed by the general public. Social Security checks will still go out. SNAP benefits will still be delivered. Rents will get paid, kids will go to school and football will be played on weekends. Only the media will actually be concerned about it. The government, which cold have averted a shutdown if they so pleased, will act as if the world might end without them running things. It won't and they know it.

But...

Wall Street may take the opportunity to make your life a little more miserable by running down stocks like they did in April... or during COVID, or in 2008, or in 2000, or 1984. Happens all the time.

If you were a fund manager and your career depended on beating the S&P and making profits for your clients, wouldn't you be inclined to sell when the S&P is up 12% year-to-date and 32% from the April lows? Yes, you would, especially if your stocks have done as well or better. You could moe largely to cash, keep some core positions, and spend the rest of the year lounging in the Bahamas or Morocco, or Southeast Asia enjoying the sweet life.

After whatever systemic shock has been planned and executed, things will return to normal, or, whatever normal looks like these days. There will be protests and demonstrations, mean tweets from president orange, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine will continue. Big Wall Street firms will have made oodles of money. People who thought they could outsmart the market will be poorer, and guess what? The U.S. government will be back in business, like nothing actually happened because nothing did happen. It just looked that way.

A few days ago, Marty Bent and Ed Dowd had a pretty wide-ranging discussion. It's an hour long, but the real meat is near the end, after about the 57-minute mark. If one is so inclined and has the time (Hey, you're going to watch football and baseball for hours this weekend, you can probably squeeze this in.), it's worth viewing.

At the Close, Thursday, September 25, 2025:
Dow: 45,947.32, -173.96 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 22,384.70, -113.16 (-0.50%)
S&P 500: 6,604.72, -33.25 (-0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 21,336.99, -146.49 (-0.68%)

Who Rang the Bell? Is a Possible Government Shutdown Prompting a Top for Stocks? Advanced Planning Does Not Exist

It's been said that "nobody rings a bell at the top," meaning that market tops are highly unpredictable, even for the best AI bots or Wall Street market analysts.

From Tuesday's breakout on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (46,682.71) to Wednesday's closing bell, the Dow has lost a little more than one percent. That surely doesn't sound like much, but downturns have to start somewhere and the timing of this tail seems a bit suspect.

Previously, on Monday, the S&P topped late in the afternoon session (6,697.91) as did the NASDAQ (22,794.95). Both were ahead of the market by quite a bit and both have been tumbling since. While Money Daily has been promoting the idea that stocks appear to have further room to run, if this spate of downside sliding continues through the rest of this week and into the next - when the government's fiscal year of 2025 ends on September 30 and 2026 begins on October 1 - there's a good likelihood of serious erosion if the congressional assemblage doesn't come together on a stop-gap funding continuing resolution (CR) to maintain the government through the next seven weeks (November 22).

Yes, that's right, seven weeks. All the wrangling and arm-twisting in D.C. is over legislation that funds the government for less than two months. Democrats are digging in on restoring a trillion dollars worth of Medicare/Medicaid cuts that were tossed out under the president’s "big, beautiful bill" that he signed on July 4. Republicans contend that they want a "clean" bill with no additions other than $30 to $50 million for additional security for legislators, the Trump administration, and Supreme Court justices.

That officials of the federal government are concerned about their own safety is an interesting anecdote, considering they are, as a whole, probably the most unserious, facile, self-absorbed gaggle of misanthropes ever assembled in one place, lurching from one self-imposed crisis to the next with seven-week interims, devoid of any functional approach to the governance of the country they are busily destroying. It's not enough that people hate them - Democrats, Republicans and the few faux-independents all - now they want to flaunt their distrust of the body politic by surrounding themselves with sentinels and surveillance squads. Most people would prefer they simply went away. The growing movement among the populace is to ignore and avoid contact with any of them and their regulations, taxes, and policies as much as possible. One cannot lay the blame of the emerging curse of this reckless, feckless political class on the American people. The "uniparty" has long been planned and groomed from the inside by deep state operatives into what now has become a scourge upon the entire planet.

Getting back to the financial end of the ongoing drama, a partial government shutdown might force the hand of Treasury Secretary Bessent to impose emergency functions, including not paying certain bills and withholding payments to contractors. The longer a shutdown - even though one has always been considered more of a parlor game than an actual crisis - persists, the closer the United States comes to capitulation and defaulting on obligations.

It could become serious enough that treasury yields begin to spike, the most obvious would be in two-year and 10-year notes, the yields on which have been coddled and driven lower by faith-keeping buyers of U.S. debt, the most likely culprits the primary dealers and emerging stablecoin privateers.

What looks to be the beginning of a downdraft for the stock market may have had its birthing with the ringing of the opening bell at the NYSE on Monday by none other than disraced former presidential advisor Mike Waltz, who was kicked sideways by the Trump administration to become the U.S. Representative to the United Nations after being found complicit in group chat leaks concerning planned military operations. Rather than address the seriousness of the leaks and raise the bar of outrage, Trump downplayed the event, sending Waltz off to the U.N. gulag, where he has little influence and can cause almost no damage. Trump would rather see the U.N. dismembered for all its worth. Thus, Waltz's appointment is as ironic as it is relevant. His ringing of the bell on Monday, September 22, might as well serve as a signal to begin selling stocks in earnest, no tin-foil caps needed.

The NYSE takes the ring-a-ding-dinging of the opening and closing bells seriously. So much that they devote pages to it on their website as the "Bell Calendar" complete with videos of the ritual ringings. While Money Daily may be going out on a limb promoting a risk off agenda, but no more so than the howling media's near-constant streams of good tidings for small investors. It's useful to have some counterweight to overt propaganda. Ours is forged in silver and gold, which, notably, have been handily out-performing everything else for the better part of the past two years.

Whether or not our feckless leaders in Washington have plans to shutter the government for a while or not is not the most important issue presently. How to escape the entanglements they've entwined the country into and how to reform or replace the current government goons over the longer term would seem to take precedence. But, nobody thinks long term anymore. That's so 1950s. With the immediacy of media and focus on current issues, who has time for planning? Obviously not the 7-week-wonders populating the nations' capital. They're too busy framing the propaganda narrative that keeps Americans on the ropes, or on the dole, or on the rolling hate wagon.

It's working. Americans hate everything, including the very people they elected to fix things. According to recent polling, congress has an overall approval rating of about 20-27%, meaning there is roughly a quarter of the polling population that actually has been bribed enough to express an approving opinion of these lazy grifters.

The president is polling at about 40% approval and the direction of the country slightly less than that, around 35%. These polls change daily, depending on who's doing the asking and answering and the political flavor of the day. Mostly, polls are noise. Generally, people don't like politics or politicians and resent being fed a daily diet of them.

The United States is hurtling down a path of its own demise, aided by those at the top of the policy apparatus. Despite President Trump's insistence that the country is the "hottest" on the planet, the Braggart-in-Chief has a hard sell in front of him. Anyone taking the time to compare the U.S., and, by extension, Europe, with emergent Asian nations can clearly see the flow of capital, good manners, peace, justice, and common sense from West to East. Russian and Chinese cities aren't littered with homeless bums and drug addicts. If American cities are - a claim that is easily verified - how is one supposed to accept the "so hot" argument?

Trump's plans for a "golden age" for America appear to be little more than rhetorical limning for the MAGA camp. Even though he's had only eight months, outside of deportation efforts, most of his campaign promises have yet to be fulfilled. Gas prices aren't down, though they are stable. Food prices are definitely higher now than back in January. Ukraine and Gaza are still killing fields. American schools are broken. Tariffs seem to have produced, besides the revenue for the government, higher prices on fewer imports. Um, Epstein files? Let's not go there.

Meantime, Trump excoriates the rest of the world at the U.N., though one can give him a pass on this after the obvious attempts to sabotage his speech have emerged. Trump also tweeted out some kind of nonsense on Wednesday about Ukraine winning back the territories taken by Russia. Whether he's playing 6D chess or just trolling (probably the latter), it wasn't very gracious, accurate, or effective.

With a half hour to the opening bell, stock futures are down across the board. Dow: -118; NASDAQ: -171; -S&P: -31.

Gold is holding steady around $3,667, while silver topped out this morning at $45.37 on the COMEX and is hanging right around $45 per ounce.

Let's see where this goes...

At the Close, Wednesday, September 24, 2025:
Dow: 46,121.28, -171.50 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 22,497.86, -75.62 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 6,637.97, -18.95 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 21,483.48, -64.73 (-0.30%)

$10,000 Gold, $120 Silver Entirely Possible by 2030: Shiller PE Hits 40.15; Trends Remain Positive for Stocks, Metals

Following up on yesterday's post about why everybody should hold some precious metals, Jim Rickards has made this point on numerous occasions: continued 20% annual increases in the price of precious metals adds up rather quickly.

For instance, suppose gold finishes this year around $4,000 (a fairly safe bet) and silver around $50 (a distinct possibility), if they both make 20% gains in 2026, which, as a matter of fact, would be nothing compared to how they've performed in 2024 and thus far in 2025, gold would be $4,800 and silver $60. Barring any unforeseen "black swans," such as the U.S. government suddenly balancing its budget and begin repaying its $37 trillion debt (LOLOLOL, never gonna happen), World War III, or a complete crash in stocks, bonds, everything, the opportunity for $10,000 gold and $120 silver is not only well within reach, that might turn out to be at the low end of predictability.

Looking out further on the investment horizon, 20% gains in 2027 would mean gold at ($4800 + $960) $5760, ($5760 +$1152) $6,912 in 2028, ($6912 + $1382) $8294 in 2029, and ($8294 + $1658) $9,952 in 2030.

Silver's advance would be along the same lines and probably even better, especially since the gold:silver ratio needs to be ratcheted down to more traditional standards, like 20:1 or 16:1 or even 12:1. The current 84:1 is obscenely undervaluing silver, even if it is only part monetary metal and part industrial.

If silver is $60 an ounce in 2026, 20% increases over the next four years would look like this: $72 in 2027; $86.40 in 2028, $103.68 in 2029, and $124.42 in 2030. It's probably going to reach levels beyond that.

Thus, all those who just five years ago were saying that people calling for $10,000 gold and triple-digit silver were wrong, out to lunch, delusional, or otherwise full of balogna would be proven dead wrong.

What is likely to happen before 2030 is a complete washout of fiat currencies and a return to some form of gold standard. The U.S. dollar, Japan's yen, the euro, yuan, francs, pounds are not going to survive on "full faith and credit" of their respective governments for very much longer. Gold will be backing these currencies to the tune of at least 40%, quite possibly more, in order to keep some semblance of balance, fairness, and realism in international markets. Floating currencies will become obsolete. Everything will be pegged to gold and the countries with the most gold will have the best prospects for prosperity entering the third decade of the 21st century.

Economies of countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Peru, with large silver deposits, will improve. They might even decide to back their currencies with silver and gold.

The problems with such a scenario is that it's a radical change from the debt-based currencies people have been forced ot use since around 1933 and beyond. Such currencies, created out of thin air, with nothing backing them, have been printed to near oblivion, stealing away the wealth of the people. The U.S. dollar will cease to be the wold's reserve currency. It will be supplanted and replaced by gold.

The beginnings of this trend are already underway and could begin evolving at a faster pace quite soon. Rest assured that as stocks deteriorate, the wheedling operators at the COMEX, CME, and LBMA will do their level worst to see that gold and silver are punished as well, only, this time may indeed be different. More and more investors are running to precious metals from stocks. They are not running from both. Gold is now seen as the safe haven, devoid of counter-party risk and a hedge against inflation of fiat currencies. Investors are flocking to it.

By the way, the Shiller PE (CAPE) closed Monday at 40.15, clearly the second-highest level ever achieved. That was before Tuesday's drops on the major indices, but there is surely more fuel to burn in the current stock melt-up. The Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Shiller PE will set new high marks before the year 2025 is done.

With the opening bell approaching, stock futures portend a positive open for stocks. Dow futures: +63; NASDAQ futures: +55; S&P futures: +10. Gold, $3,800, and silver, $44.35, have pulled back slightly from Tuesday's run-up. WTI crude oil is higher, at $64.35 and rising.

The trend remains higher for stocks and precious metals. Oil's move is a blip. Supply is simply larger than demand and prices will soon fall into the 50s. At the Close, Tuesday, September 23, 2025:
Dow: 46,292.78, -88.76 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ: 22,573.47, -215.50 (-0.95%)
S&P 500: 6,656.92, -36.83 (-0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 21,548.21, +5.74 (+0.03%)

Gold and Silver Are Sending a Message to the Market

Let's talk about gambling instead of stocks today.

Have you ever lost a couple hundred dollars at a race track or blown a wad of cash betting sports over a weekend or dropped a grand or two in Las Vegas, or, worse yet, playing online poker or other games?

If you haven't, you might want to consider buying some gold or silver, and doing it soon, if not right now.

The reason is that losing money at the track or online or even in Vegas, baby! is gone. Gone. Forever. You may believe that you can win it back, but the reality is that you have to put up more of your own capital to do so. It's a trap most compulsive gamblers fall into without even knowing it. You never win it back. The odds are stacked against you. The best you can hope for is to lose a little less.

So, there's gold and silver. Easy to buy, relatively safe to have shipped by the U.S. Postal Service or purchased from a local dealer, and quite simple to store at home in a safe place. The great thing about precious metals is that they never lose, or, to put it more succinctly, you can never lose them (unless, as the joke goes, you have a tragic boating accident and your bullion has found its way to the bottom of a lake or ocean).

The price of gold or silver can go down, but, that's not been the case lately, and, even if the price does go down, a quick check of your socks drawer will reveal the truth about precious metals: they're still there.

Gold, which continues to set all-time highs against the dollar and every other fiat currency day after day, this morning hit $3,828.20 on the COMEX. Silver hit $44.72. A month ago, they were $3,417.50 and $39.21, respectively. They've gained 11.7% and 13.7%, with silver the big winner. Year-to-date, gold is up 44%; silver 52%. If you bought either at the end of last year or early in January of 2025, you're ahead enormously.

Long-time stackers who were buying gold at $700, $1100, or even $1800, and silver at $7, $14, or $21, are sitting literally on a pile of gold (or silver).

The kicker is that it's still not too late. Measured against the U.S. dollar or any other fiat currency - which is all of them - they continue to rise. Stocks keep going up as well, but those digits you see on your computer screen, be they five, six or even eight figures large, are subject to change, and those are changes over which you have absolutely no control.

The gold and silver in your closet, or at-home safe is never going to change. They're always going to be worth something and they will always and forever be bars, rounds, or coins of set weights, be those grams, ounces, or, if you're one of the lucky ones, pounds.

The chance that gold or silver will be worth less in a day, a week, a month, a year, or beyond is very slim. The precious metals, including palladium and platinum, continue to reflect the realities of modern government finances, which are, today, deeply indebted, losing value (inflation), and likely to be replaced by something other than dollars, yen, euros, francs, lira, yuan, rupees, etc. Something more solid.

They'll be replaced by gold and silver will be along for the ride.

That's the message precious metals are sending to the markets. Are you listening?

As the gambling horde of investors, speculators, and shiftless managers readies for another day of paper-chasing, stock futures are flat, with only the Dow futures up around 50 points.

Gold and silver are already up more than one percent each.

At the Close, Monday, September 22, 2025:
Dow: 46,381.54, +66.27 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 22,788.98, +157.50 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: 6,693.75, +29.39 (+0.44%)
NYSE Composite: 21,542.47, +48.51 (+0.23%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Gold, Silver, Stocks Rising after Fed Rate Cut; Oil, Gas About to Fall Out of Bed; There Won't Be a Government Shutdown; Fall Begins Monday

Break out the apple cider and pumpkin-spiced lattes. The autumn equinox of will occur at 2:19 pm ET on Monday, September 22.

Tomorrow, in most books.

The one constant in this world is change, but whether the U.S. economy sees any is debatable. It's more likely that the U.S. and its vassal states in Europe will simply carry on with their fraudulent narrative of winning in Ukraine, Gaza is not genocide, congress works for the good of the people, and the rest of the useless claptrap promoted by the mainstream media.

At least the unfunny Jimmy Kimmel is gone. Not really a bargain exchange for Charlie Kirk, but the conservatives will take it as a win. Maybe the networks will come to the realization that people don't want to be fed a constant stream of political "gotchas" night after night, the overriding theme being conservatives are bad, Orange Man Bad, Russia bad.

The U.S. government faces a possible partial shutdown on October 1, should the congress not rush yet another continuing resolution to the president's desk before the end of the fiscal year. It's not like the country is going broke - it already is - because the Treasury can just keep borrowing, even if there are no buyers for its debt. The Federal Reserve will buy it at any price. The usual charade of "crisis" Washington isn't even being promoted this year. The Dems and Reps will just get together, as they always do, and pass some bill loaded with excess spending, earmarks and pork to keep the lights on until November 22 or thereabout. It's nonsense, like just about everything else coming out of the nation's capital is.

Otherwise, it's business as usual as September winds down.

Stocks

Stocks gained as the week progressed, in line with the FOMC cutting the federal funds rate by 0.25%, to 4.00-4.25%. Ho-hum. It's not like what banks charge each other overnight to balance their books is going to have any kind of impact other than on Wall Street. Imagine the interest rates on credit cards dropping 0.25%, from 23.50% to 23.25%. Whoop-de-doo! People aren't going to rush out and spend more just because their monthly payment drops a couple of dimes.

For the Week:
Dow: +481.05 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: +490.38 (+2.21%)
S&P 500: +80.17 (+1.12%)
NYSE Composite: +119.65 (+0.56%)
Dow Transports: -17.47 (-0.11%)

As expected, the Dow Transports were tilted to the downside, however slightly. The Transportation Average has still not confirmed all the new highs on the other indices. A top will be put in soon, though not right away. The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed the week at 39.95. It's headed past 45, so figure on another 500 points on the S&P before the bubble begins to deflate. All of a sudden, liquidity will dry up and stocks will take a dive. It's a slow process.

Proceed accordingly.

The week ahead offers little in the way of indicators concerning the state of the U.S. economy, the most salient releases coming on Wednesday, with Building Permits and New Home Sales and the EIA weekly report on oil and gas supplies. Thursday will be the most impactful, with the final estimate of 2nd quarter GDP, monthly PCE, weekly jobless claims, August durable goods, and existing home sales.

On Friday, the PCE Index comes out, which may serve as some indication of current and forecast inflation, and the University of Michigan consumer survey. Thus, most of the focus will be toward the end of the week. Expect Monday and Tuesday to be fairly boringm more of the same, with maybe some action later in the week. The possibility of a government shutdown will be downplayed and might rear up the following week. Otherwise, figure on stocks continuing to blip higher.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83
09/05/2025	4.29	4.24	4.24	4.07	4.05	3.85	3.65
09/12/2025	4.24	4.24	4.20	4.08	4.02	3.83	3.66
09/19/2025	4.19	4.16	4.14	4.03	3.98	3.81	3.60

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92
09/05/2025	3.51	3.48	3.59	3.80	4.10	4.72	4.78
09/12/2025	3.56	3.52	3.63	3.81	4.06	4.65	4.68
09/19/2025	3.57	3.56	3.68	3.88	4.14	4.71	4.75

With the FOMC cutting the federal funds target rate down to 4.00-4.25%, short term yields fell, as yields on longer-dated maturities rose as the yield curve begins to unclench. There is the possibility of normalizing the Treasury yield curve at some point, possibly upon further rate cuts. The Fed will be pushed kicking and screaming into cutting the interest rate again at least one more time this year - probably twice, in November and December, and probably down another 50 basis points before Chairman Powell's term ends in May.

The total of one percent lopped off the federal funds rate will be a boost to the moribund economy. When a new Chairman is appointed by Trump, interest rates will be pushed down even lower, ushering in another massive round of inflation. 2026 is shaping up to be exciting with regard to economies and currencies. By mid-year, one-month bills could be as low as 3.00% and the 30-year bond upwards of 5.25%.

Spreads, post the rate cut were active, with 2s-10s remaining high at +57, while full spectrum galloped 16 basis points higher to +56. Banks, if they can remain solvent, should react positively to wider, deeper spreads. Short-term money is becoming cheaper. Every known shady operator is looking to hawk debt. It's like candy. Tastes good, but rots your insides.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $62.36, up slightly from last week's Friday New York close of $62.11. It's not going anywhere, but maybe down, short term, because there's too much oil and not enough demand. The U.S. is pumping at near-record levels, the Saudi's and OPEC have raised their production quotas and Russia's just happy selling theirs to China and India, the latter reselling some of it to Europe.

RBOB, which is the wholesale price of gasoline, or petrol, has been rangebound between $1.90 and $2.32 per gallon for a year. It closed Friday at $1.91. If it should continue to fall below that baseline, prices at the pump could see a return to widespread sub-$3 gas across America, except the West coast, primarily due to taxes and over-regulation.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and are two cents higher this Sunday morning, the national average is $3.17, according to Gasbuddy.com.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining on top, at $4.66 per gallon, followed closely by Washington ($4.62) and joined in the $4 club by Oregon ($4.23). The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.64) adging out Mississippi ($2.68).

The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, remain above $3.00, with neighbors Ohio and Indiana each at $3.04. Virginia ($2.99), West Virginia ($2.98) and Kentucky begin an ark that extends through Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, to the Dakotas, and Wisconsin of sub-$3 states, with Minnesota ($3.05) the lone exception. Illinois is at $3.37, and Michigan at $3.14. The lowest in the Northeast is Vermont ($3.05); the highest, Pennsylvania ($3.33). All the rest, from Maine to Maryland, are somewhere in between.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 21 states, down one from last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest. The entire Southeast, with the exception of Florida ($3.10) is under $3.00 a gallon.

Bitcoin

This week: $115,734.60
Last week: $115,368.20
2 weeks ago: $111,129.79
6 months ago: $84,354.25
One year ago: $64,450.64
Five years ago: $11,301.01

The Ponzi has stalled. Bitcoin is down 7.2% since the mid-August high of 123,332. Over the same period, gold is up 12% and silver has made a gain of 15%. There's either going to be a concerted effort by the whale-holders of bitcoin to get the price higher, or the scheme is going to begin to collapse. There may be a sucker born every minute, but after a while, every scam is exposed and after 16 years of bitcoin and crypto nonsense, recently exacerbated by high-profile people pushing crypto and losing, this one is getting a bit (pun intended) long in the ledger.

Face it, you diamond-handed YOLO hodlers, bitcoin and crypto is simply crap, a make-believe fantasy constructed by the same people luring people into digital dollars, stablecoins and programmable CBDCs. It's not going to work, even though in the interim, some investors, like President Trump's sons, Don Jr. and Eric, who have been spearheading various schemes, will make loads of money, invest it elsewhere or lose most of it.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 85.76; last week: 86.24

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70
Gold price 9/19: $3,719.40

Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Silver price 9/12: $42.68
Silver price 9/19: $43.37

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	44.00	51.41	47.11	46.96
1 oz silver bar:	45.95	55.39	50.76	50.50
1 oz gold coin:	3,802.84	3,944.06	3,855.91	3,845.83
1 oz gold bar:	3,800.57	3,938.21	3,858.60	3,855.46

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained rose to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $48.83, a gain of 68 cents from the September 14 price of $48.15 per troy ounce.

Gold and silver continued to move higher, with silver leading the way over the near term. Year-to-date, gold is up 40.32%; silver, 46.89%.

Say goodbye to the COMEX and the London price fix. While they'll continue to operate, those old school pricing mechanisms are being gradually overtaken by honest price-setters with settlements in physical metal in Shanghai and soon, St. Petersburg and Dubai, as the West gives away authority to BRICS-related entities. Gold is already at record-high prices everywhere in the world. Silver will break through $50 an ounce soon enough, quite possibly by the end of the year. If silver reaches $50 before January 1, 2026, there's every possibility for $60 over the next year, as that would amount to a mere 20% gain.

WEEKEND WRAP

The West is broken. The East is rising. Act accordingly.

At the Close, Friday, September 19, 2025:
Dow: 46,315.27, +172.85 (+0.37%)
NASDAQ: 22,631.48, +160.75 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: 6,664.36, +32.40 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 21,493.97, -10.38 (-0.05%)

For the Week:
Dow: +481.05 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: +490.38 (+2.21%)
S&P 500: +80.17 (+1.12%)
NYSE Composite: +119.65 (+0.56%)
Dow Transports: -17.47 (-0.11%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Continue Making All-Time Highs as Congress Ponders Shutdown or Stop-gap Funding On September 30

The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed Thursday at 39.86, the second-highest level ever, as stocks march to new all-time highs on a near-daily basis.

A day after the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate to 4.00-4.25%, stocks flew higher, if only to solidify the narrative that they are the only game in town, that any wealth creation during these tumultuous times will be achieved by buying and holding U.S. stocks. This was surprising to absolutely nobody.

With Friday's opening bell approaching, stocks are once gain poised to finish the week on the positive side of the ledger. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 308 points, the NASDAQ has put on 329 points, the S&P 500 is ahead by 47, and the NYSE Composite Index is up 130. These are all at all-time highs.

Exclusively to Dow Theorists, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is up just 14 points on the week and is nowehere near a record high. In fact, since the start of September, the Trannies have been trading between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, with the notable feature of a death cross in late August and the 200-day average in a declining posture. Why this is important in terms of Dow Theory, is because it signals a non-confirmation of the primary trend.

While the Dow Industrials certainly have achieved escape velocity, reversing the bearing trend to bullish upon making new highs last month, the Transports have failed to do so. The Transportation Average must confirm the primary trend reversal of the Industrials. Otherwise it is a false flag, so to speak, indicating that the bearish trend that originated in December of 2024 is unanchored by market fundamentals.

While Dow Theory is considered old school and inapplicable to modern markets, it does bear notice if only because the companies that move people, goods, and energy are showing signs of weakness. If things don't move, things don't sell. Critics will propound on the notion that the global economy is more tech-based, and, to a large degree, that is true. However, tech still relies on energy, and energy is required for the production of food, otherwise known as human energy. Nothing stands alone in the globally-connected economy. That's why low oil prices are constitute a warning to the bulls. While cheap oil is a boon to manufacturing and production, a consistent low price also indicates a lack of demand, translating into a stagnant economic environment, which is something that was on the Fed's agenda when they decided to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

Just because stocks are going up doesn't automatically mean the underlying economy is strong. Often, Wall Street veers far from general economic trends as stock trading is an emotional experience, operating under the guise of momentum, greed, fear, and, occasional price rigging (OK, price rigging, or manipulation, may be more than just occasional, but that might sound too conspiratorial).

There are more waring shots to those with a more cautious approach to investing. The massive one-sided insider trading that's been underway during this final push to fresh highs in stocks is a red flag. Corporate executives are selling shares at a strong pace at the same time their companies are buying back shares to boost the EPS and thus, the stock price.

Warren Buffett continues to sit on an enormous cash horde of more than $350 billion, the thinking that if the greatest value investor of this generation is sitting in cash, looking for bargains, then he must be anticipating a pullback.

Not to souond like Chicken Little, procaliming the sky is falling, most indicators and cheerleading by the usual talking heads are insisting that the current rally has more room to run, and indeed, it might. New highs on a regular basis aren't normally the time to be thinking about bailing out, but, if the general understanding of playing stocks is to buy low and sell high, now would seem an appropriate time to at least trim some holdings. There is every possibility that the current bubble will exceed the all-time high on the Shiller PE, which is 44.19, at the peak of the dotcom bubble in December 1999. If that's the target, there's still plenty of room for stocks to run and investors with an eye for the exits might want to hold a little longer, at least until the U.S. congress plays its version of government shutdown no-hold 'em poker as the 2025 fscal year comes to an end on September 30 and the 2026 fiscal year beings October 1. After today, that leaves just six legislative sessions before they put up or shut down. Odds favor a last minute deal, since that's what always happens. Republicans and Democrats will fold like the cheap suits they really are in order to keep the grift and the graft flowing.

With the opening bell approaching, stock futures are foretelling a slight positive lean at the open. Gold and silver are recovering from the usual post-FOMC beatdowns, and WTI crude oil is hovering near the lows of the week, below $63/barrel. This week looks like a safe bet for the bulls, with the possibility of watershed moments next week or on Tuesday, September 30, when congress and the president have to decide on whether or not to keep the plates spinning or partially shut down the government. This is without a doubt a risk-takers kind of scenario.

At the Close, Thursday, September 18, 2025
Dow: 46,142.42, +124.10 (+0.27%)
NASDAQ: 22,470.72 +209.40+(0.94%)
S&P 500: 6,631.96+31.61 (+0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 21,504.35, +64.45 (+0.30%)

Fed Cuts 0.25% Sending Stock Futures Higher; More Cuts to Follow as Fed's Inflation Fight Fails

Wednesday, as FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%, to 4.00-4.25%, market response was notably erratic, especially during and after Chairman Powell's disjointed "risk management" press conference. Stocks gyrated from positive to negative and back again, eventually terminating at levels roughly equivalent to where they stood just prior to the policy statement release at 2:00 pm ET.

The entire announcement:

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.

With that, the belief that the rate cut had been already "priced in" by markets began to circulate through the various media channels and advisory pundits. It didn't take long, however, for futures markets to express true investor sentiment as shortly after the cash market close, prices began ramping higher, to a point at which, by early morning in America, stock futures were signaling a buying frenzy. By 8:00 am Thursday, Dow futures were up 240 points, NASDAQ futures gained 275, and S&P futures were ahead by 50 points.

There was little to argue concerning the Fed's rationale, despite their own admission that inflation remained well above their preferred two percent annual level. Employment, which had been shaded to the positive by the corrupt BLS, had finally been exposed as well below replacement and growth potential, when the agency admitted the largest "error" in its history: a 911,000 shortfall from reported numbers. Essentially, what the BLS said was that lopping off an average of 80,000 jobs in the 12-month period from April 2024 to March 2025 from their rosy monthly releases would result in a more accurate assessment of job gains. That reassessment of U.S. employment sealed the deal for at least a 25 basis point cut, with more likely to follow.

In the aftermath of the policy decision, quants, savants, and expert Fed watchers pored over the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections provided by FOMC members and, in the usual Wall Street groupthink herd behavior decided that stock prices were currently not quite high enough in consideration of the Fed's thinking towards the future.

Anybody not an expert or otherwise blessed with divination skills on a level with Delphic oracles can clearly see where this is headed. The Fed, while coming close to their "price stability" target inflation rate of two percent, wherein prices double in a mere 40 years, were never really serious about tamping down inflation, and now have completely abandoned the idea of keeping consumer prices in line with average incomes. Prices for essentials and non-essentials alike now have a green light to double in just 25 years, maybe 20, or 10, or possibly sooner. Hyperinflation cannot be ruled out at this juncture.

Maybe President Trump is indeed playing 5th dimension chess with the global economy, his plan to complete the full debasement of the currency, eliminated the Fed and issue currency directly from the Treasury, maybe even back it with gold. Trump's "golden age" for America may prove to provide a wide-ranging ride of emotional pain and euphoria along the way to his perception of prosperity.

For now, the public be damned, President Trump is ultimately going to be granted his wish for ever lower interest rates. Chairman Powell's term expires in May 2026, a mere eight months from now. Before then, the Fed is expected to lower rates by 0.25% at least one more time, probably twice, and possibly as early as the November and December meetings. Wall Street's lascivious habit of relying on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy for price discovery will continue.

Among the more questionable, if not overtly humorous anecdotes of this most recent Fed motion, was recently appointed board member - and the architect of Trump's tariff and overall economic policies - Stephen Miran's vote for a cut of 0.50% at this meeting (denied) and his assessment of appropriate monetary policy for this year of 2.88%, well below all other members and somewhat out in economic left field.

Assessing the current and forward conditions, it appears that the bubble economy will chug forward towards glorious new highs for stocks and prices of everything from milk to Macadamia nuts.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 17, 2025:
Dow: 46,018.32, +260.42 (+0.57%)
NASDAQ: 22,261.33, -72.63 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 6,600.35, -6.41 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 21,439.90, +64.71 (+0.30%)

All Eyes on the Fed as Rate Cut Expectations Soar; Congress Preparing for Government Shutdown Drama

It's unlikely that there will be any surprises when the FOMC announces its interest rate policy decision Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET. The CME's Fed Watch tracker has the odds for a cut of 25 basis points at 94% with just a 6% chance of a 50 basis point drop.

The attention paid to what banks charge each other for moving money overnight (the federal funds target rate) is one of the more endearing qualities of 21st century markets. The CME's tracking tool linked above even has a timer on the page, counting down the time to the announcement to the second, as if life or death rode on the momentous decision of the oracles of the Eccles Building. The Fed headquarters is the one getting a $2.5 billion facelift that so annoyed President Trump that he recently toured the facility with Chairman Jerome Powell.

The dramatics of the eight annual FOMC meetings is only outdone every so often by congress, whenever they run out of other people's money to spend, which, by the way, is about to take center stage again. Speaker of the House, Don Johnson (no, not the Miami Vice guy) Mike Johnson, put up a spending proposal late Tuesday that, if approved by both houses, would keep the government operating until November 21st. In real terms, this is a stop-gap measure designed to fund the excesses of the most reckless, spendthrift congress in the history of the world for maybe two months.

Considering that Democrats have already vowed, as a bloc, to oppose the measure, and that the bill needs a 60-vote majority in the Senate, could this be the occasion for the long-overdue government shutdown for which average citizens have been hoping?

Sorry, that won't ever happen.

Even if it takes until the wee hours of Wednesday, October 1 to iron out a deal, our fruitcakes and flufflers in congress will find a compromise to keep their luxurious grafting going. Democrats are whining about cuts to Medicaid and other social welfare handout programs. Johnson's proposal includes $88 million for increased security for themselves, Supreme Court justices and the president. That measure is sure to pass, so add $88 billion plus annual increases to the calculus of future deficits.

They're so coy and cute, these "lawmakers". Anybody over the age of 50 who isn't sick of government intruding into every aspect of American lives, taxing people to the limits of affordability while at the same time blowing wads of borrowed Federal Reserve Notes on far flung wars, interest on the debt, their own salaries and the various other wastes and abuses of capital should immediately head to see a psychiatrist because there's something wrong upstairs.

All congress does is perpetuate their own existence, as if it mattered to anybody outside their little circle of influence. Americans should have overthrown these easily-bribed sleaze bags decades ago, but instead played along because congress kept handing out freebies over the years since the U.S. left the gold standard. Now that the debt is approaching $40 trillion, the citizenry, though allowed ot be armed to the teeth, is powerless to stop the federal government from doing anything it so pleases. Such is the sorry state of our uniparty "democracy."

Today's mental math challenge: If a tiny house on a small lot could be erected for $100,000, how many homeless people could be awarded with a place to live, rent-free using the $2.5 billion going toward renovating the Federal Reserve's HQ and the $88 million going toward extra security for elected officials (that's a grand total of $2,588,000,000). Answer below.

Tuesday was one of those rare days that the major indices didn't make all-time highs, but, fear not, because as soon as the FOMC makes their momentous announcement that they are cutting some obscure interest rate by 0.25% and the Chairman begins flapping his gums at the press conference, stocks should soar because, if you weren't already aware, cutting the federal funds target rate is not only great for stocks, the general economy, and cures blindness, six forms of cancer, and eliminates bloating, it also grows hair and increases stamina so you'll last longer in bed. Your partner(s) will love it.

Heading toward Wednesday’s open, futres are essentially flat, with the Dow ahead by about 60 points. Gold and silver got gobsmacked overnight (big surprise), but are recovering. That was done so that when the Fed makes its two o'clock announcement, their highs won't be even higher than anyone could imagine. Eventually, they will be, but not today, thank you.

Today's mental math challenge answer: If you answered 25,880, congratulations, you can do math. However, the correct answer is ZERO, as the government, even if places to live could come as cheap as $30,000 or $50,000, the government would never do it because that might cause people to think twice about their $2500 mortgage payments, annual real estate taxes exceeding $5,000 (much more in many cases) and how badly they're being screwed without even a reach-around. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 16, 2025:

Dow: 45,757.90, -125.55 (-0.27%)

NASDAQ: 22,333.96, -14.84 (-0.07%)

S&P 500: 6,606.76, -8.52 (-0.13%)

NYSE Composite: 21,375.19, -19.40 (-0.09%)

What Is Going On? Stocks, Gold, Silver to the Moon as Fed Plans Rate Cut and More Inflation

Like it or not - actually, what's not to like? - stocks ripped higher again on Monday in anticipation of Wednesday's FOMC interest rate policy decision, expected, almost certainly, to be a cut of 0.25% and possibly 0.50%, with more to come.

Wall Street has been giddy over the prospect for a rate cut since the release of August non-farm payroll numbers by the BLS, which showed a gain of only 22,000 jobs for the month and revisions to prior months that demonstrated just how fragile the labor market in the U.S. has become. Of particular note was the revision to June, down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000, the first negative print since 2020.

Additionally, BLS also issued its Preliminary Benchmark Revision a week ago (September 9), slashing the job estimates by a record amount of 911,000. All that did was fan the rate cut flames a little higher.

At the same time, gold has been setting price record after price record, up as high as $3,736.70 on the COMEX this morning. Silver has joined the party, trading at around $43.27 today. Silver, in one month, is up a stunning 12.32%, even outperforming gold.

While there are obvious reasons for precious metal demand, the blaring one is the continued debasing of the U.S. dollar and other major fiat currencies. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, is at a 3 1/2-year low Tuesday morning, of 97.05 and has been sliding precipitously since Trump's inauguration, when it stood at 109.35. While it's difficult to believe that the dollar has weakened against the yen, euro, and pound, that is the reality, though all of the major currencies have taken a huge downside hit when measured against real money, gold and silver.

Stock pumpers are cheering a rate cut, which is no doubt inflationary. At the same time gold and silver stackers are cheering just the same. In relative terms, holding either asset class is a winner, though the big gains have been exclusive territory of precious metals for the past two years.

For those without either asset class, life will simply continue to suck. Higher prices from tariffs and inflation will continue to erode purchasing power, everywhere. For the bottom 80% of individuals, there is no escape.

When the rug pull commences - and it will - everything will collapse in a heap, though from the experience of the 2007-2009 sub-prime collapse, gold and silver will rebound much more quickly than stocks, some of which may not recover at all.

In the end, you got to know when to hold, know when to fold 'em...

RIP, Kenny Rogers.

At the Close, Monday, September 15, 2025:
Dow: 45,883.45, +49.23 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 22,348.75, +207.65 (+0.94%)
S&P 500: 6,615.28, +30.99 (+0.47%)
NYSE Composite: 21,394.59, +20.28 (+0.09%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Amid Protests and Government Downfall in Europe, the U.S. Seems Almost Utopian; Gold, Silver, Stocks, Treasuries Rise as Rate Cut Looms

Stocks made gains in anticipation of a long-awaited cut to the federal funds target rate which has been on hold at 4.25-4.50% since December of 2024, when the FOMC lopped off 25 basis points after shedding 50 in September and 25 in November.

While the PPI and CPI readings for August tilted in opposite directions, the PPI declining while he CPI increased to a rate of 2.90% annualized, participants in stocks were unfazed, putting in substantial gains on all the major indices, with the Dow up 0.95% on the week, the NASDAQ adding 2.03%, but the Dow Transports the lone laggard, pulled down 100 points, a 0.63% decline.

During the week, France held a confidence vote on its prime minister, which failed, the choices now for Macron somewhere between capitulation and resignation, though he appointed Sébastien Lecornu on Wednesday, the latest prime minister already facing a no confidence vote in parliament while protests erupted across the country.

Across the Channel in England, millions turned out for a nationawide protest against the government. The "Unite the Kingdom" march, organized by anti-immigrant activist Tommy Robinson was reported to have attracted 110,000, according to mainstream media reports, though photos from the event suggest the numbers were substantially larger.

?????? BREAKING: Over 1 million protesters flood the streets of London

This is the largest protest in British history and a massive stand for free speech.

The message is clear. The people have had enough. The system is breaking. pic.twitter.com/d1jP3ajWp2

— Global Dissident (@GlobalDiss) September 13, 2025

Europe continues to hurtle toward self-extinction as France, England, and Germany are each facing financial and political issues caused by their own governments. Between rising prices, especially for heating and other fuels, continued support for Ukraine, widespread censorship, and the immigration problems, the general public has had all it can take and is nearing revolutionary conditions.

The U.S. was rocked by the assassination of Charlie Kirk, a popular conservative activist who connected well with the country's youth.

None of this deterred Wall Street from sending stocks to all-time highs while treasury notes and bonds also rallied.

The upcoming FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday (9/16-17) will be the highlight of next week's market action. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs remain in force though in legal limbo as the Supreme Court granted expedited status to the administration's appeal to a lower court's ruling that Trump exceeded his authority in slapping tariffs on over 100 countries.

The month of September nearly at its midpoint, politicians are once again suggesting that the government may shut down (partially) if some kind of spending agreement isn't reached by the end of the 2025 fiscal year on September 30. With the national debt nearing $38 trillion and the current deficit running at about $1.2 trillion, whatever the Fed does won't make much of a difference, as James Rickards suggests.

Stocks

The bubble in U.S. stocks continues to grow larger and larger with each passing day while the economy itself appears to be running at stall speed, with growth - if one can even believe the GDP figures provided by the government - at maybe one to two percent. Employment figures are so broadly misrepresented, the U.S. may actually have been losing jobs through most of the past two years. Record revisions to the BLS non-farm payroll data suggest that may be the case.

No matter to the snake oil stock pushers on Wall Street. With billions of fungible dollars at their disposal in retirement accounts and at their own trading desks, the giant firms like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) and others control more than 80% of all the trading on the largest exchanges. If they choose up, it's up. If they want to take profits and sell, they will, together. Essentially, the banking and stock and fixed-income trading functions within the U.S. are a cartel.

Even though much of the trading in stocks is highly controlled by a small number of parties, that doesn't mean individual investors should avoid it. Since the last financial disaster in 2007-2009, it's been prudent to buy and hold or buy on dips. Stocks just keep rising for just about any conceivable reason. In reality, there doesn't need ot be a reason to buy or sell stocks. As long as the banking cartel is buying, they'll continue to return positively.

Proceed accordingly.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83
09/05/2025	4.29	4.24	4.24	4.07	4.05	3.85	3.65
09/12/2025	4.24	4.24	4.20	4.08	4.02	3.83	3.66

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92
09/05/2025	3.51	3.48	3.59	3.80	4.10	4.72	4.78
09/12/2025	3.56	3.52	3.63	3.81	4.06	4.65	4.68

Yield on the 30-year bond is at a four-month low (4.66%, 4/30/25); 10-year is at a 5-month low (4.01, 4/4/25).

The yield curve remained partially inverted with the nexus (low point) at 2-and-3-year maturities. The general tendency at the long end this week was in anticipation of a Fed rate cut on September 17, the current betting favoring 25 basis points with 50 not entirely out of the equation.

Yield on the 10-year note was down four basis points, with the 30-year bond dropping 10. Yields on two-year, 3s, 5s, and 7s were all higher, though only marginally. Spreads continued to founder, with 2s-10s at +50 and full spectrum at +40

When the Fed cuts rates on Wednesday (9/17) nothing much will change, though stock and bond markets will likely rally further. The "magic wand" effect of each FOMC meeting is great for selling worthless paper.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $62.11, up ever-so-slightly from last week's closeout at $61.27.

WTI crude was hovering between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, and now is clearly headed for an extended bear market, having sustained prices at or below $65/barrel for 2 1/2 months. Taking a longer view, oil is nearly half of what it was at the peak of 2022, when it was upwards of $118/barrel. This is indicative of a longer-term stagnation in conjunction with a general supply glut. With an "official" recession looming, prices could drop into the 50s and even the 40s over the medium term.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and are lower this week, the national average of $3.15 on Sunday down four cents from a week ago, as Gasbuddy.com reports.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, up three cents, at $4.64 per gallon. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Mississippi the cheapest, at $2.68, with Oklahoma nearby at $3.72. Oregon has jumped feet-first into the $4+ club with price at $4.28. Washington has caught California at $4.64. Nevada is pushing higher, at $3.88 on average Sunday.

The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, are all $3.00-plus except for Ohio ($2.87), Virginia ($2.97) and West Virginia ($2.98). An ark from Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, through to the Dakotas are all sub-$3. Michigan is right at $3.00, while neighboring Wisconsin is $2.90 and Minnesota is $3.04.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 22 states, five more than last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest. The entire Southeast, even Florida ($2.91) is under $3.00 a gallon.

Bitcoin

This week: $115,368.20
Last week: $111,129.79
2 weeks ago: $108,241.07
6 months ago: $81,877.78
One year ago: $60,382.53
Five years ago: $11,082.85

Ponzi.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.24; last week: 87.68

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70

Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Silver price 9/12: $42.68

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	43.99	53.99	47.33	46.50
1 oz silver bar:	46.81	56.00	49.89	48.87
1 oz gold coin:	3,783.85	3,908.50	3,850.65	3,871.25
1 oz gold bar:	3,744.70	3,870.96	3,809.83	3,807.39

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained close to last week's record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $48.15, a decline of 48 cents from the August 31 price of $48.63 per troy ounce.

Since gold and silver continue to press higher, long-time stackers are obviously satisfied. In case there's a pullback on global recession fears, that would be an opportunity to buy in. Current prices are suggesting breakout and follow-through. As long as governments around the world continue to pursue ridiculous policies and overtax their populations, saving in precious metal is an obvious great idea.

WEEKEND WRAP

This week's FOMC meeting may be deemed important and essential by some, but the underlying conditions lend credence to deteriorating conditions in the U.S. and Europe and the ultimate collapse of fiat currency regimes. France is under extreme pressure from the left and right combined. That is where people should keep focus because if France continues to flounder and slide toward civil war or outright revolution (the French are good at it, the country steeped in the history of tyranny and out-of-control governments), it could trigger the breakup of the European Union, which would, by any reasonable measure, be beneficial to all of Europe and to peace around the world.

The technocrats in Brussels will have to be dragged kicking and screaming from their positions of power. Likewise in the U.S. congress, which wields the utmost in hegemony and hubris. The current legislators quite possibly the most corrupt gang of miscreants ever assembled in one place. Those opposed to the government at the federal, state, and local level are quietly growing in number. Many Western "democracies" have become powder kegs of discontent, the people subjected to heavy-handed regulations, taxation beyond their means, lower standards of living, and rising price inflation for everyday needs.

This does not end well. Radical changes are afoot on many levels. Being like a boy scout - prepared - has become almost second sense to most people.

At the Close, Friday, September 12, 2025:
Dow: 45,834.22, -273.78 (-0.59%)
NASDAQ: 22,141.10, +98.03 (+0.44%)
S&P 500: 6,584.29, -3.18 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 6,584.29, -3.18 (-0.05%)

For the Week:
Dow: +433.36 (+0.95%)
NASDAQ: +440.71 (+2.03%)
S&P 500: +102.79 (+1.59%)
NYSE Composite: +238.22 (+1.13%)
Dow Transports: -99.77 (-0.63)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.