BLS Says August Job Gains Were 22,000; June Revised to -13,000, First Negative Print in Five Years; Fed May Cut 0.50%

Stocks made outsized gains on Thursday, possibly on the realization that if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the trade court that said Trump lacked the proper authority to impose sweeping tariffs on most countries in the world, the result could trigger a ruling that the U.S. must rebate all the tariffs collected, some $128 billion or more.

That would likely be net positive for not just the companies that paid the tariffs, such as large retailers like Walmart, Target and others, but could also result in lower prices for many imported goods. A ruling is expected by October 14, though chances are good that the nation's top court could rule well before that date. For now, the tariffs remain in place and the situation is fluid.

With the week drawing to a close, stocks could go either way on Friday, depending on how traders interpret the August Non-farm Payroll data, released by the BLS at 8:30 am ET.

Through Thursday, the Dow is ahead by just 76 points, the NASDAQ is up 252, and the S&P, which set another record close Thursday, is up 53 points.

The news from the BLS was sobering, if not a sad approximation of the current employment condition of the United States, showing a mere 22,000 jobs created in August, well below trend and expectations. June was revised from 27,000 to -13,000, marking the first negative print since 2020, at the height of the pandemic. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%, near historic lows.

Futures responded in a positive manner to the news. The twisted Wall Street logic posits that if the economy is weak, the Fed will likely raise rates at their next FOMC meeting in less than two weeks (Sept. 16-17), which would be good for stocks since companies would have lower carrying costs (interest) on borrowings for share repurchases (buybacks).

So, let's be straight about this. If people don't have jobs, the top 10% of American adults who own the majority of stocks in the U.S. will profit, exceedingly well. The top 1%, who don't need jobs, or more money, will do even better.

OK, got it. Super!

At the same time, on the BLS release, gold and silver leapt higher. The calculus for precious metals is a little bit more understandable than the Wall Street stock market take. If interest rates are lower, more people will be looking for alternatives to fixed income vehicles like treasuries or corporate bonds. Gold and silver, which have absolutely zero counter-party risk (unless you are in the habit of inviting known thieves into your home or anywhere near where you store your metals) and are time-tested stores of value over the short and long term.

The added bonus for precious metals is that they have been appreciating in value against all manner of fiat currencies, especially the Japanese yen, where the price of gold has tripled in the past three years. As it is, gold has essentially more than doubled in the U.S. and silver has doubled in less time, hitting a low below $20 in March, 2023. as of 9:00 am ET, both metals are up sharply. Gold hit a high of $3,643, silver, $41.92, both on the COMEX continuous contract.

An economy with no job growth is just dandy all around... well, except for working-class people, but, uh, who needs them? We have AI.

Trump will fire the new head of BLS (not sure who it really is, they keep changing so fast) in 3...2...1...

At the Close, Thursday, September 4, 2025:
Dow: 45,621.29, +350.06 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ: 21,707.69, +209.97 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,502.08, +53.82 (+0.83%)
NYSE Composite: 21,157.93, +149.82 (+0.71%)