While the U.S. was taking a three-day holiday, the leaders of the Global South were meeting in Tianjin, China, at the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Highlighting the conference was the emergence of understanding and movement towards an end to the bickering over mountainous borders between China and India, and the embracing of the leaders of the three leading BRICS countries - Russia, China, and India - as Putin, Xi, and Modi made clear to the world that they were united in opposition to the sanctioning and brow-beating of the United States.
This development was downplayed by Western media, though the significance of the event was hardly overlooked by the most astute and sensible political and economic commentators. While the United States and Europe continued to feign ignorance to the security conditions outlined repeatedly by Russia in what will soon be post-war Ukraine and threaten further sanctions against countries trading with the Great Bear, the Global South was moving forward, with or without the West.
In the aftermath of the SCO, stocks in the U.S. and Europe wobbled ahead, though the action was hardly robust or even realistic. Especially in U.S. markets, stocks tumbled over the four-day trading week, only to be boosted by the usual combination of insider trading, corporate buybacks, the New York Fed's trading desk and some rumblings and grumblings from the PPT and ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund). Like it of not, the largest shareholders were forced to buy into stocks to keep the averages - and the appearance of prosperity - from breaking down.
By Friday, when the BLS announced that August job creation numbered a mere 22,000 and June was revised to the first negative number in five years, -13,000, the dire straits of the U.S. labor market, and by inference, the greater economy, were beginning to become clear. After an initial quick selloff, stocks stabilized and traded in a narrow range the remainder of the session. By the close of trading on Friday, the losses had been somewhat mitigated by the usual rigging mechanisms, but the deeper implications were evident.
Underpinning the narrow gains of the week were a dual track of upcoming events, with the September FOMC meeting on September 16-17 and the end of the fiscal year on September 30 providing a backdrop full of anticipation and apprehension. With weakness in the labor market evident, the betting that the Fed would cut 50 basis points was on the rise while the possibility of a government shutdown at month's end agitated an already-uneasy market.
Understanding that September is traditionally a poor month for investors and October historically the time for dramatic stock implosions, trading became muted, selective, distracted, and, particularly in the tech space, overcrowded. Market indications are leaning toward seeking safety in fixed income, and, significantly, precious metals.
Titanic dislocations are taking place beneath the superficial facade of financial news and advisories. Ignoring the fractures taking place in global trade comes with enormous risk.
Stocks
U.S. stocks continued catching down to the rest of the world over the course of the week. Stocks maintained a positive lean, though a topping out sequence may be developing. For the time being, a wait-and-see attitude prevails, though the narrative is wearing increasingly thin.
Recent earnings reports, which have been reduced to a trickle as the third quarter proceeds, have been a mixed bag of EPS beats, revenue near-misses, and forward guidance focused on tariff implications, though those have been tempered by the ongoing courtroom drama. That condition should find some resolution in the near future, though even if the Supreme Court finds agreement with the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which ruled Trump's tariffs to be illegal at worst or beyond presidential authority at least, the president has other options to keep most of the tariffs in place.
On the agenda for the week ahead are some impactful economic calendar events and releases. Tuesday's NFIB Business Optimism Index will off er reading on general business sentiment, though Wednesday's August PPI and Thursday's CPI readings will dominate the data. Wednesday's weekly EIA figures will affect trading in crude and may have an impact on gas prices short term. The recent trend has seen inventories building with limited drawdowns.
Overall, the CPI and PPI readings will impress upon inflation expectations and influence the Fed's thinking on the federal funds target rate. Trading is likely to be choppy and slanted to the downside as there are few, if any, positive overtones.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 08/01/2025 | 4.49 | 4.46 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 3.87 |
| 08/08/2025 | 4.48 | 4.43 | 4.39 | 4.32 | 4.27 | 4.15 | 3.93 |
| 08/15/2025 | 4.48 | 4.42 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.22 | 4.12 | 3.93 |
| 08/22/2025 | 4.47 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 4.21 | 4.08 | 3.87 |
| 08/29/2025 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 4.17 | 4.01 | 3.83 |
| 09/05/2025 | 4.29 | 4.24 | 4.24 | 4.07 | 4.05 | 3.85 | 3.65 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 08/01/2025 | 3.69 | 3.67 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.23 | 4.79 | 4.81 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3.76 | 3.70 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.27 | 4.84 | 4.85 |
| 08/15/2025 | 3.75 | 3.73 | 3.85 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 4.91 | 4.92 |
| 08/22/2025 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.26 | 4.84 | 4.88 |
| 08/29/2025 | 3.59 | 3.58 | 3.68 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 4.86 | 4.92 |
| 09/05/2025 | 3.51 | 3.48 | 3.59 | 3.80 | 4.10 | 4.72 | 4.78 |
The yield curve remained partially inverted with the nexus (low point) at 2-and-3-year maturities. The general tendency at the long end was anticipatory of a Fed rate cut on September 17, the current betting favoring 25 basis points with 50 not entirely out of the equation.
Yield on the 10-year note was played down 13 basis points, with the 30-year bond dropping 14. The flight to treasuries was hardly reflected in stocks, which remained buoyant, though increasingly under pressure. Strength in the bond markets may be fleeting and/or fanciful. Treasuries and corporates are no more insulated from the ongoing global fracture than stocks or any other risk asset. Gold and silver stand out as safe havens, and should continue to strengthen as such short, medium, and longer term.
Notably, the Fed's influence continues to wane in the face of continued rhetorical attacks by the president and Treasury Secretary Bessent. Indeed, Chairman Powell, whose term expires in May, could be the last truly independent Fed chairman and possibly the last of any significant importance. In some circles, the administration's assault on the Fed and its various members, regional presidents, and governors is viewed as constructive institutional destruction with the implication of dissolving the central bank altogether the ultimate goal.
Though "ending the Fed" may be a fashionable sentiment, the overall ramifications of a shift from central bank currency creation to putting such power in the rightful hands of congress and the U.S. Treasury is rife with disruptive issues. Along with that, the current lean towards stablecoins and CBDCs becomes an even more frightening possibility, rendering U.S. currency as little more than imaginative counterfeiting with no backing or intrinsic value.
It is the continuance of 112 years of central bank fractional reserve money debasement that is central to any discussion of money and currency going forward. From an economic and security standpoint, these are not just interesting times, but ones fraught with danger and potential upheaval that extends beyond economies and into the social structure.
The economic rules that have guided the United States for more than a century are coming undone. One can only try to prepare for indefinite outcomes. Nothing is neither sacred nor unthinkable under these conditions.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week at $61.27, a far cry from the previous Friday New York close of $64.01. The fundamental nature of global supply and demand do not support price increases anywhere in the world. A return to the $50s is not only likely, but practically becoming a tradable probability.
Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71. Because oil is not subject to tariffs and most people, after basic necessities like rent, mortgage payments, and food, cannot afford excessive fuel purchases (demand destruction), a supply glut continues to build. With summer driving nearly at an end, and with it, a switch to winter fuels, prices should continue to fall in both WTI and Brent markets. There is simply too much oil meeting the needs of the declining West. A magnitude shift in flows to the East could cause serious price dislocation, i.e., much lower prices and looming, if not already underway, recessions in Europe and the United States.
Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end, but the national average of $3.19 on Sunday, as Gasbuddy.com reports, is something of a canard. Oil prices are undeniably down, but it is taking an inordinate amount of time for price to find a true level at the pump. The energy giants are squeezing every last nickel out of consumers, though it hardly amounts to much at all. It would not be surprising to see gas prices nationally drop below $3.00 by year's end and into the winter months of 2026. As a gauge for the general economy and precursor to recessions, nothing beats gas prices as an indicator. Lower prices imply not just slack demand, but margin compression for the likes of ExxonMobil, Chevron, et. al..
State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, up another few cents, at $4.61 per gallon. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Mississippi the cheapest, at $2.69, with Oklahoma close behind at $3.70. Oregon joined the state of Washington ($4.42) and California in the $4+ club, hitting $4.03 this week.
The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, are all $3.00-plus. An ark from Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, through to the Dakotas are all sub-$3, interrupted by Nebraska ($3.02). Minnesota and Michigan are both at $3.15. In between them, Wisconsin is $2.97.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in just 17 states, down three from last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest, most marginally higher. The entire Southeast, with the exception of Florida ($3.08) is under $3.00 a gallon. New Mexico abruptly popped to $3.02 with Arizona and Nevada straining at $3.53 and $3.83, respectively.
Bitcoin
This week: $111,129.79
Last week: $108,241.07
2 weeks ago: $114,536.60
6 months ago: $87.701.04
One year ago: $54,382.00
Five years ago: $10,446.00
Bitcoin continues to tread water between $107,000 and $112,000, continuing to bounce around in this support range. The fallacies associated with bitcoin and crypto in general are monumental. Eventually, this entire fallacy will be exposed as nothing better than three-card-monty with additional bells and whistles for the truly ignorant humans having put faith into it. Once Wall Street became enthralled by the lure of digital currency, the promise of peer-to-peer, trustless, anonymous financial transactions went out the door and it's never coming back.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.68; last week: 86.28
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Gold and silver prices were up for the third straight week. Gold continued to reach new all-time highs against the rapidly-debasing U.S. dollar. Silver cracked the $40 mark a week earlier and was trading above $42 on occasion in the most recent week.
Efforts at the COMEX and LBMA to keep precious metal prices contained have become less effective as the emergence of BRICS, the SCO and allied countries in Asia, Middle East, Africa, and even South America are reshaping the global paradigm into a bi-polar construct, rejecting the hegemonic tendencies of the United States, Europe, and the UK.
At some point, there will be either an East-West split or a concession by the West that the derivative-based pricing of precious metals is at an end. In consideration of the West's reluctance to yield to economic forces beyond their control, a split would seem to be the most likely outcome, upon which the Western bloc will become isolated from most of the rest of the world.
The prospect of gold-backed currencies continues to be a back-burner issue, though the pace at which geo-political developments are taking place suggests a global change before 2030, possibly within two to three years. Gold and silver have been regarded as money for centuries. It is only within the last 75-150 years that gold and silver have been relegated to second-class status. Silver began to be demonetized in the United States and Europe in 1873. The United States finally took silver coins out of circulation in 1965.
In August of 1971, then-president Richard M. Nixon "temporarily suspended" U.S. dollar redemption in gold. This temporary condition has now lasted 54 years and is seemingly nearing an end. Once gold and silver are recognized again as true, honest MONEY, the shockwaves will be felt worldwide. Anybody who doesn't understand just how rapidly the fiat monetary system is becoming extinct will be on the losing side of economic reality.
More and more mainstream brokerages and financial advisors are recommending allocations into gold. Though they are late to the party, there is still the possibility that gold and silver's rallies are only just beginning. In China, Russia, India, Turkey and many other countries, gold and silver are already regarded as true measures of wealth and have been, in most cases, for many long years. Americans, Europeans and other Western countries do not share the rich histories of gold and silver monetary reality. Thus, they are learning their lessons the hard way, through fiat currency debasement and an eventual shock to the economic systems they have maintained in the industrial epoch.
Activity by central banks - buying gold at a record pace - is soon to be joined by gold and silver mania of the public, already being expressed on physical platforms such as eBay, where prices have accelerated powerfully to the upside over the past month and particularly this past week.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 44.95 | 59.00 | 49.09 | 48.77 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 44.96 | 59.95 | 48.97 | 47.70 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,707.00 | 3,883.07 | 3,786.37 | 3,781.27 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,698.00 | 3,819.41 | 3,751.14 | 3,751.22 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rocketed to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $48.63, a gain of $1.75 from the August 31 price of $46.88 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
A new world order is commencing and it's not going to be one which favors the Western hegemonies of the United States and Europe, whose economies are deeply indebted and whose financial constructs are obviously failing. That much was made clear by the SCO conference this past week, embracing principles of cooperation and respect in international affairs. The heavy-handed, carrot-and-stick regime of the U.S., Europe, and UK-aligned nations is being tested by a more rational, reasonable system that favors understanding and fairness as opposed to oppression, fear, and war.
At the Close, Friday, September 5, 2025:
Dow: 45,400.86, -220.43 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 21,700.39, -7.30 (-0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,481.50, -20.58 (-0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 21,136.04, -21.89 (-0.10%)
For the Week:
Dow: -144.02 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: +244.84 (+1.14%)
S&P 500: +21.24 (+0.33%)
NYSE Composite: -15.43 (-0.07%)
Dow Transports: -177.00 (-1.11%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Subscribe To
Posts
Comments
No comments:
Post a Comment