Friday, October 10, 2025

Government Shutdown Day 9: At Last, Good News, IRS Sending Home Half of Workforce; Gold Holds Above $4,000, Silver Still Screaming for $50/ounce

As if they weren't deserving to be permanently removed as government employees, the IRS announced that roughly half of their staff - about 34,000 people - began to be furloughed on Wednesday. The temporary layoffs mostly affect call center workers, IT employees and HQ paper-pushers. The more relevant agents, auditors, and accountants will be working without pay, for now. Serves them right.

Other than the usual grumblings at airports, nothing has really changed in Washington, D.C., as it's difficult to tell whether the government is actually functioning or not these days. For the most part, when the federal government is officially "open", their roles are usually to point fingers at each other, cause headaches and paperwork for American citizens, jam up whatever business people are trying to run with endless regulations, and skim as much as possible without drawing fire from individuals and businesses while they spend far more than they receive in taxes.

For what it's worth, the federal government should be severely downsized at the vary least. President Trump tried to do that at the beginning of his second term, tasking Elon Musk with the job of running DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency. In the beginning, it sounded great and Musk took the task seriously, but various courts overruled many of Trump's decisions to terminate employees and Musk quit after just a few months, completely disgusted with the process.

It's a sad state of affairs when a billionaire, one known for his business savvy and ability to run private companies with minimal staff, works for free and can't get around the red tape and the courts to complete his work.

While the government is technically shot down - actually just lacking funding through November 21 - President Trump has mumbled about permanently firing laid off workers or not paying them for time worked or not worked during the shutdown. It amounts to mostly bluster and hot air, Trump's specialty. On the other hand, he's promised to pay the military during the shutdown, though that would require a separate bill and the House won't be back in session until Friday at the earliest, so it will probably be Monday to see if any action is taken on that proposal.

Paying the military might be a political football, as anybody voting against it would almost certainly be labeled unpatriotic. However, members of the military, who mostly hang around bases in far-flung locations or right in the United States aren't actively doing much fighting and might be considered by some to be "non-essential." If congress does pass legislation to pay them during the shutdown, it would amount to a slap in the face to the non-military employees who are working without pay. In terms of scoring points, it depends largely on which team is doing the scoring or threatening the other side. From a practical perspective, it's a double-edged sword. From the public's perspective, it's just more nonsense. A government that can't balance its own books and can't agree to how much money they're grifting and borrowing from the public, isn't worth supporting anyway.

Rather than strutting around like prized peacocks, the congress and the president should all be ashamed of themselves. They've managed to overspend to the tune of $37 trillion and now are threatening to shut down various government departments because they don't have enough money.

If the plan was to shame themselves into defaulting on loan obligations and disbanding, that would be one thing, but it's obviously too much to hope for. The elected congress is shameless. Maybe when a few of them can't catch a flight because there are no air-traffic controllers, they might come to their senses.

Since the shutdown is being viewed by Wall Street as simply theater of the absurd, stocks haven't shown any signs of stress. Actually, in most business circles, company executives are the most happy and productive when the government leaves them alone, so, a positive reaction, shuch as has been prevalent since the shutdown began last Wednesday, might not be wrong at all. Getting the government out of the way of doing business would probably add significantly to profit margins and help promote a competitive marketplace. Imagine not having to file endless, useless reports, or paying 15-30% off the top to Uncle Sugar.

As the shutdown continues, Wall Street shrugs along, with the S&P and NASDAQ setting new all-time highs on Wednesday after a slight pullback Tuesday. The SHiller PE (CAPE) closed out at 40.32 Wednesday, chasing the record of 44.19 from the dotcom craze in December 1999 (peak clown world).

Gold crossed the $4,000 Rubicon on Wednesday and has remained above it. Over at the COMEX rigging maching, silver still can't seem to find its way past $49 or $50, though silver is in backwardation presently with futures prices below spot. Normally, in contango, it's the other way around. It's an explosive condition, as the physical market is racing ahead of the controlled futures short-selling gambit that's dominated for the past 50 years. The only fools still shorting silver and gold are the Federal Reserve via their proxies at the bullion banks. They're being ruined on a minute-by-minute basis for resisting the obvious.

Neither gold nor silver is going to retreat any time soon. Perhaps, if the government re-opens, there might be a slight pullback in pricing, but as long as the Fed keeps pumping out fiat paper and the federal government keeps running $2 trillion deficits, the only way precious metals prices are going is up. How high they go depends on the level of emergency printing of money from thin air the Fed deems necessary to keep their 112-year old Ponzi scheme going.

With. a little more than a hlf hour to the opening bell, stock futures are flat-lining, gold has held above $4,000, bouncing around $4,060, with silver gaining, closing in on $49.00. $50 silver is inevitable. Standard sales of one-ounce silver bars and coins on eBay and online retailers are already in excess of $50. American Silver Eagles (ASE) are routinely selling for $52-55 and higher, depending on the mintage and condition. Numismatics are soaring.

A return to honest money seems to be accelerating, but the currency in place - yen, pounds, francs, euros, dollars - has to be almost completely debased before the people on the street demand something better. Until then, expect gold and silver to continue to higher, and probably, much higher, levels. People who were promoting $10,000 gold and triple-digit silver don't seem so extreme right now and they'll be much less reviled over the next few years. Because fiat currencies are backed by nothing, their comparison to gold and silver knows no upward bound. The more that is printed, the more precious metals will cost.

Until it all goes bust.

Like the man asked how it's going, falling from a 100-story skyscraper, "so far, so good."

At the Close, Wednesday, October 8, 2025:
Dow: 46,601.78, -1.20 (-0.00%)
NASDAQ: 23,043.38, +255.01 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: 6,753.72, +39.13 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 21,725.81, +62.71 (+0.29%)



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