Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Government Shutdown Day One; What Happens Next? Stock Futures Lower; Gold, Silver Continue Moving Higher

Though they made it look like they were trying by voting on both the Democrat proposal and House bill late Tuesday, the Senate failed to advance any bill, effectively leaving the federal government temporarily unfunded, shutting down the government for the first time, ironically, since Trump was president back in his first term (2018-19).

At the stroke of midnight, the government officially shut down, partially. Many so-called "essential services" remain open.

The government shutdown is likely have a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that a shutdown could furlough roughly 750,000 federal workers each day, resulting in non-payment of about $400 million in wages daily. Employees deemed essential, such as those in national security, law enforcement and air traffic control, would be required to report to work without pay until funding resumes. The U.S. Postal Service remains open. Social Security checks and

Past shutdowns have led to closed national parks, slowed passport processing, delayed small-business loans, disruptions in food safety inspections, and delays and/or flight cancllations at airports around the country. Government closures have cost the economy billions of dollars though employees who are temporarily laid off eventually recieve their back pay. Thus, a government shutdown is like a paid holiday for many federal employees, except that they get paid when they return to work.

This one has a bit of a different odor to it. Democrats say they are digging in their heels over cuts to Medicaid that would be of benefit to illegal migrants and make COVID-era Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits permanent. They are looking to restore $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion cut from Medicaid and Obamacare programs that were lost via the passage of President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" this past summer.

For their part, Republicans aren't budging either. They insist that spending taxpayer dollars on illegals is wasteful and treats taxpayers poorly. There are few people who would disagree with them on that point, yet, Democrats are insistent on restoring the funds. It feels more like a "uniparty" set-up, wherein both parties made purposeful arrangements to shut down the government and bust the economy. It won't take much to send the U.S. economy into a tailspin. Between the usual infighting in congress, Trump's tariffs, the worsening national employment situation, high inflation, and the general committment to continue funding killing fields in Gaza and Ukraine, a few weeks of the U.S. government without money, off its training wheels, so to speak, should tank it heading into the fourth quarter, which began Wednesday, along with the government's 2026 fiscal year.

While that may sound conspiratorial, the bigger picture suggests that is exactly what is happening. Even the Democrats cannot be so blatantly ignorant to shut down the government over funding for illegals that expire at the end of the year. As it stands, the proposal passed by the House and declined by the Senate would only have funded the government through November 21, or just more than seven weeks.

Both sides will try to lay blame for the shutdown on the opposing party, but the truth is that Republicans and Democrats alike are responsible for the massive deficits of the past decade and nobody in congress is willing to make the necessary cuts to government that the country needs to at least cut back deficit spending to something more reasonable, like $500 billion, rather than the projected $2 trillion the government will overspend in fiscal 2026.

Elected officials are sent to Washington to work for the people, but, for far too long, members of congress have treated themselves to the largesse of government through gross abuses, graft, and corruption, at the people's expense. There's a growing chorus of everyday Americans that wish the government would close up shop and stay closed. They want government to get out of the way and let Americans fend for themselves, without the overwhelmeing burdens of taxes and regulations that stand in the way of growth and prosperity for hundreds of millions of people.

It's important to keep in mind that the government shutdown, all the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the media, all the finger-pointing and recriminations are the work of the government itself and they should bear responsibility for whatever befalls the nation, no matter how severe the punishment.

In the meantime, Wall Street chose to sail past the crisis on Tuesday as if nothing was happening. Wednesday, the first day of the country run off its rails, effectively without a government, might begin to reveal a much different tone.

There are some aspects to the government shutdown that are just plain silly. For instance, people living in the Eastern or Central time zones should appreaciate the fact that the governent shut down in Washington, D.C. before the Dodgers took the field in Los Angeles for Game One of the National League Wild Card series with the Cincinnati Reds. It's so typically American to just plain not give a damn about politicians when there's a sports game at the same time. One would suppose that if the Russians nuked New York City, all the NFL teams except the Giants and Jets and whichever teams they were supposed to play would just take the field as usual on Sunday, Monday, and even Thursday night.

Whether or not one considers that dark humor amusing isn't the point. The point is that Americans, in their own self-abusing manners, prefer athletes to politicians almost every time.

Equally amusing and hinting that this shutdown was planned by both parties well in advance is that the House of Representatives isn't even in session [PDF] until October 7, and the Senate, after a single session on Wednesday (incidentally, Yom Kippur for all you Jew haters and anti-Semites) doesn't return until October 6. So, even if the Senate magically came to some kind of deal, the House couldn't even muster a up quorum. The crooks in congress can't even engineer a solid false flag crisis anymore, proving just how incompetent they really are.

For those wondering what's open, what's closed and what else, Politico offers a fairly extensive review.

As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are trending lower. Dow: -130; S&P: -28; NASDAQ: -117.

Gold is continuing to make all-time highs, around $3,897.70 at 9:00 am ET. Silver also ramped higher overnight, settling in around $47.50 prior to the stock market open.

J.P. Morgan has published a $6,000 target for gold, while Jefferies has gone even further, predicting $6,500. In all honesty, gold and silver have no limits. As long as governments continue debaing their currencies, the prices of precious metals will continue to rise in relation to them. In the end, when all fiat currencies fail - and they will - gold will be revalued at something in the range of $20-30,000 and silver will be easily triple digits, probably $400-$500 per ounce. Get ready for it. The current gains are nothing to when the final reset occurs.

The shutdown could last days, weeks, or months, depending on how deeply the government wishes to harm itself and its citizens.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 30, 2025:
Dow: 46,397.89, +81.82 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ: 22,660.01, +68.86 (+0.30%)
S&P 500: 6,688.46, +27.25 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 21,564.54, +66.99 (+0.31%)



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