WEEKEND WRAP: Trump in Asia, Wasting Everybody's Time; Government Shutdown in 26th Day; Food Stamps Cut Off November 1?

There's quite a bit going on this week following one in which gold and silver got taken down a notch or two, President Trump raised tariffs on Canada because they aired a commercial featuring former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs, the U.S. shot down a few more "drug boats" in the Caribbean and the Pacific, CPI inflation at three percent was deemed "good" by Wall Street, the media and the government, and the government shutdown became the second-longest in U.S. history.

That's just for openers. The upcoming week will feature President Trump trying to persuade countries in Asia to do business with the U.S., including a meeting with China's Xi Jinping, and a rate cut at the FOMC meeting Tuesday, with the policy decision 2:00 pm ET Wednesday. Halloween is Friday. Lots of tricks, maybe some treats.

42 million Americans are hoping the federal government reopens so they can get food stamps for November, though the Senate doesn't seem to be in much of a rush to do anything besides posture and point fingers at each other.

Bloomberg headline: Trump Unveils Flurry of Asia Trade Deals Ahead of Xi Meeting

However, should one actually read the story (Money Daily did), as it reveals the lie:

"The US president dangled exemptions from his reciprocal tariff regime on key exports from Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia..."

"It’s a step in the right direction but there’s still considerable uncertainty out there,” said Peter Mumford, who covers Southeast Asia at risk consultancy Eurasia Group, citing questions on the rules of origin for reciprocal agreements, sectoral tariffs and transshipment levies. “And none of these are legally binding agreements too. They’re all quite flexible agreements."

Trump claims to have reached agreements lifting tariffs on a wide swath of goods from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia, and made deals for preferential treatment on rare earths with Thailand and Malaysia. Bloomberg's own analyst offered this: "Absent specific commitments, the deal’s impact may not outlast the summit," said Adam Farrar, a geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics.

"He [Trump] also expressed optimism during a meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva that they could easily strike a trade agreement, as the Latin American country seeks to reduce the 50% tariff on many of its goods."

Note that they may have met, but there's still no deal. BRICS countries are beginning to unify and stand against Trump and his tariff regime. A planned meeting with Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, in Budapest, was scuttled due to Trump's imposition of sanctions against Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft.

For his part, prior to the meeting, Lula said this: "I am fully prepared to defend Brazil's interests and show that there was a mistake on the tariffs imposed on Brazil."

Trump is attempting to use leverage with Southeast Asian countries against China. It's a strategy that is not likely to reap benefits. There is talk in certain circles that President Xi won't meet with Trump at all. India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, skipped the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, specifically to avoid meeting with Trump, who has placed 50% tariffs on Indian exports to America.

There's a good chance that the meeting with Xi will not take place at all. China has made no official commitment about the meeting, which is supposed to take place on Thursday (or now, Thursday or Friday) on the sidelines of the APEC conference in South Korea.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is with Trump on the Far East trip, continued meetings with Chinse counterparts, saying the talks were, "constructive, far-reaching and in-depth," adding that they give the nations "the ability to move forward to set the stage for the leaders meeting in a very positive framework."

In other words, they got squat. Mainstream Western media is all propaganda, much of it just plain lies, especially Bloomberg.

Stocks

Stocks had another solid week, and should benefit from a deluge of earnings from some of the biggest names in tech and a number of Dow stocks.

Monday, October 27: (before open) Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP); (after close) Avis (CAR), Rambus (RMBS), Whirlpool (WHR), Waste Management (WM), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)

Tuesday, October 28: (before open) United Health (UNH), Corning (GLW), UPS (UPS), HSBC (HSBC), DR Horton (DHI), Royal Caribbean (RCL), PayPal (PYPL), SoFi (SOFI); (after close) Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Seagate (STX), Visa (V), Electronic Arts (EA)

Wednesday, October 29: (before open) Etsy (ETSY), ADP (ADP), Phillips 66 (PSX), Caterpllar (CAT), Boeing (BA), Verizon (VZ), CVS Health (CVS); (after close) Carvana (CVNA), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT)

Thursday, October 30: (before open) Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Comcast (CMCSA), Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY); (after close) Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Coinbase (COIN), Reddit (RDDT), Microstrategy (MSTR)

Friday, October 31: (before open) Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed out the week at 40.58, chasing the number from the dotcom bubble, December, 1999, of 44.14).

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/19/2025	4.19	4.16	4.14	4.03	3.98	3.81	3.60
09/26/2025	4.22	4.20	4.17	4.02	4.00	3.83	3.67
10/03/2025	4.24	4.17	4.11	4.03	3.96	3.82	3.64
10/10/2025	4.19	4.16	4.10	4.02	3.96	3.81	3.60
10/17/2025	4.18	4.15	4.08	4.00	3.95	3.79	3.56
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/19/2025	3.57	3.56	3.68	3.88	4.14	4.71	4.75
09/26/2025	3.63	3.66	3.76	3.96	4.20	4.74	4.77
10/03/2025	3.58	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.13	4.69	4.71
10/10/2025	3.52	3.52	3.65	3.83	4.05	4.60	4.63
10/17/2025	3.46	3.47	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.58	4.60
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59

With the next FOMC this week (October 28-29), yields continue front-running the expected 25 basis point cut (maybe 50) and another one in December (Dec. 9-10), with one month bills at their lowest yield since 12/29/2022 (4.04%). The Fed, figuring they've convinced enough people that three percent inflation is close enough to their two percent target, will cut at least 0.25%, bringing the federal funds target rate to 3.75-4.00%. Applying their usual guesstimate of how badly they wish to screw American consumers, that should be enough for this month, with another 0.25% coming off next month.

Not that it matters that stocks are at an all-time high, unemployment remains near historic lows under five percent and inflation has re-ignited.

The Fed has pretty poor aim. With all the monetary tools at its disposal, it can't even hit its own targets.

2s-10s spreads dipped to +54 while full spectrum gapped up to +48. Demand for treasuries remains strong, despite BRICS and de-dollarization efforts, the slack pick-up home grown.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42

Oil/Gas

Following President Trump slapping sanctions on Russian oil, WTI crude oil exploded higher, closing out the week at $61.44, up sharply from last week's $57.25. The move was mostly fluff, based on prices being too low for American producers, especially with ExxonMobil and Chevron reporting earnings this Friday (Oct. 31). Trump's sanctions are going to do anything to hurt Russia, but will hurt American consumers wiht higher prices at the pump.

The rise in oil prices sent retail gas prices just a touch higher. with the U.S. national average up two cents, at $3.03, according to Gasbuddy.com.

California remains highest, at $4.59 per gallon, followed by Washington ($4.35), both lower on the week. Oregon ($3.93), was down seven cents on the week, but, if higher crude oil prices persist, it may bounce back above $4.00. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Louisiana ($2.55) the lowest, followed by Oklahoma and Mississippi both at $2.56, jumping more than ten cents from last week. Tennessee ($2.57) and Texas ($2.59) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.75 (Georgia), with Florida the exception, at $2.90.

Relief continued in the Northeast, where all states were under $3.00, except for Pennsylvania ($3.21), New York and Vermont ($3.09), West Virginia ($3.07), and Maine ($3.00).

Illinois ($3.24), Michigan ($3.08) and Indiana ($3.06) were the only Midwest states above $3.00. Kentucky was lowest, at $2.67.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 32 states, down three from last week.

Bitcoin (fake money)

This week: $113,471.40
Last week: $106,748.23
2 weeks ago: $112,895.70
6 months ago: $94,225.30
One year ago: $67,672.59
Five years ago: $16,078.98

Bitcoin cheerleaders have been out in force since gold and silver's slap-down Friday and again on Tuesday. The pundits are all over X, touting bitcoin going to $200,000, $400,000 and estimates in the millions.

There is a concerted effort by crypto enthusiasts, Western governments, and the Trump family to sell the public on crypto, hoping they will stay away from gold and silver. It's actually kind of humorous.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 84.54; last week: 80.35

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/26: $3,789.80
Gold price 10/3: $3,912.10
Gold price 10/10: $4,035.50
Gold price 10/17: $4,267.90
Gold price 10/24: $4,126.90

Silver price 9/26: $46.37
Silver price 10/3: $47.97
Silver price 10/10: $47.51
Silver price 10/17: $50.63
Silver price 10/24: $48.41

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/17: $4250.59
Gold 10/24: $4110.63
Silver 10/17: $51.88
Silver 10/24: $48.59

(Kitko)
Gold 10/19: Bid: $4,250.80; Ask: $4,252.80
Gold 10/26: Bid: $4,111.20; Ask: $4,113.20
Silver 10/19: Bid: $51.86; Ask: $51.98
Silver 10/26: Bid: $48.53; Ask: $48.65

Gold and silver were dumped early in the week, and, while gold rebounded, silver remained below the magic $50 mark. In a sane world, the price would be $150. Prices at dealers and on eBay reflect the public's rejection of the paper slap-down.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	48.00	64.00	55.75	56.05
1 oz silver bar:	52.00	63.00	56.73	55.95
1 oz gold coin:	4,262.80	4,655.84	4,400.19	4,383.86
1 oz gold bar:	4,292.80	4,532.43	4,353.39	4,335.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell somewhat sharply over the course of the week, to $56.12, a decline of $2.42 from the October 19 all-time high price of $58.54 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

The next two weeks should provide some indication of where the U.S. economy is headed. If the government doesn't reopen before November 6th, it would serve as notice that the shutdown was planned well ahead of time and that the government's main goal is to sow chaos, both at home and abroad.

At the Close, Friday, October 24, 2025:

Dow: 47,207.12, +472.51 (+1.01%)
NASDAQ: 23,204.87, +263.07 (+1.15%)
S&P 500: 6,791.69, +53.25 (+0.79%)
NYSE Composite: 21,698.06, +74.24 (+0.34%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1016.51 (+2.20%)
NASDAQ: +524.89 (+2.31%)
S&P 500: +127.68 (+1.92%)
NYSE Composite: +286.60 (+1.34%)
Dow Transports: -224.62 (-1.41%)

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