Mag Seven Stocks Flat Overall; 1Q GDP Reported at 2%; Annual PCE, 3.5%, highest in 2.5 years; Gallon of Gas Hits $4.31, Highest in Four Years

The war that was supposed to take a weekend to win, or four weeks, or maybe more, is now two months deep. Never mind that the U.S. and Iran haven't actually been shooting things at each other for the past three weeks; both parties are still engaged in a war of words, memes, truths, tweets, and Lego™ videos. Both sides are contributing to keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, doing severe damage to the global economy. It's becoming not only pointless, but even self-defeating, especially for the U.S., which, for all intents and purposes has lost the war. At the very least the U.S. hasn't won anything.

Israel, which bears responsibility for starting the war, continues to clean up the mess that Iran made of Tel Aviv and other areas. That's a best guess, since media silence is the the Zionist approach to winning hearts and minds.

It was a stupid idea. After an unhealthy amount of death and destruction has been inflicted on all sides, it really needs to stop, but it won't, mostly because the neocons in Washington and President Trump can't accept defeat and haven't figured out how to proclaim victory in a way that Fox News can present as reasonable.

In the end, regular folks, taxpayers, voters, end up with the short stick... in the eye.

On the domestic front, Wednesday was rather busy, though, in the end, after all of the bluster and anticipation, the FOMC rate policy announcement and first quarter earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) cold be summed up neatly by Shakespeare, in Macbeth's one-liner:

"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

The FOMC sat on its collective hands, holding the federal funds target rate at 3.50-3.75%. Blah. The meeting was the last one to be chaired by Jerome Powell. In the Senate, the Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination to chair the Fed to the full chamber. He's likely to pass, though not without an extra dose of that "sound and fury" hot air that regularly escapes from the Capitol.

The net effect of four of the Magnificent Seven stocks reporting after the close on the same day, was negligible. Pre-market, Alphabet (GOOG) is up eight percent, Amazon (AMZN) is up three percent, Microsoft (MSFT) is down one percent, and Meta Platforms (META) is down nine percent. In an imaginary portfolio with equal weights of all four, the overall gain would be a one percent gain (8+3-1-9=1). Not a big deal.

A few more household names reported after the close, including:
Qualcomm (QCOM) - small earnings beat (+0.10), weak guidance, shares up 9%
Ford (F) - beat, raises expectations, shares down 4.5%
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - surprised by sales growth, stock is up 4.5%

If that isn't enough, Thursday, before the open:
Caterpillar (CAT) - Huge revenue gains, shares up 7%
Valero (VLO) - Positive forecast, shares down 1%
Wayfair (W) - Revenue gains, net loss, stock down 5%
ConocoPhillips (COP) - Lowers outlook, stock down 2%
Lilly (LLY) - top, bottom beat, up 6%
Mastercard (MA) - beat, international slowdown, down 2%
Altria (MO) - smoky, cloudy, up 3%
Merck (MRK) - in line, small beat, up 1%
Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) - bullish, flat

A little excitement and lots of numbers for investors to chew on this morning, but one that should be the headline came from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with their advance estimate of first quarter GDP, coming in at two percent after posting +0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Two percent growth does not make the USA the "hottest" country on the planet, as the Boaster-in-Chief likes to say. Even if one takes the grossly exaggerated 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2025 at 3.8% and 4.4%, the past four quarters come in at +2.675%, which would relate more or less to stumbling around, rather than setting the world on fire.

The Commerce Department reported CPE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rising at a rate of 3.5%, the highest in nearly three years. So much for the Fed's target of two percent; it hasn't been that low for five years running.

In case you like your country "hot", remember that inflation is being brought to you by the president that promised lower prices. The average price of a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline at the pump is now $4.31. Hot enough? It's going higher, probably much higher, along with the price of everything else.

It may not be so good to be so hot.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 29, 2026:
Dow: 48,861.81, -280.12 (-0.57%)
NASDAQ: 24,673.24, +9.44 (+0.04%)
S&P 500: 7,135.95, -2.85 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 22,751.51, -84.08 (-0.37%)