WEEKEND WRAP: Warsh At Fed Nixes Advance Projections on Rates; Iran and U.S. Getting Down to Negotiating a Lasting Peace; Oil Lower, Gold, Silver Look Like Bargains

Two significant events formed the past week. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chairman of the Fed went smoothly with no change to the federal funds rate and a cool and collected new Chairman nixed all hopes of advance projections by which traders can front-run the Fed. The era of green-lighting or gaslighting is coming to an end, an overall positive for markets.

President Trump managed to extricate the U.S. from its disastrous adventure in the Middle East, with an MOU with Iran delivered at a crucial juncture. U.S. and other developed nations' stockpiles of crude oil and other energy components were running dry and the world faced a real crisis with potentially devastating results. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman outward to the Indian Ocean may avert an oil crunch, though short-term hurdles remain as Iran and the U.S. begin negotiations in Switzerland Sunday.

Stocks managed to eke out gains and the treasury market showed resiliency and perhaps a return to some semblance of normalcy.

The ongoing truce in the Middle East is tenuous and President Trump faces backlash from the AIPAC hordes of neocons in congress and in the media. Given the circumstances, Trump had nothing to gain and everything to lose by keeping the pressure on Iran. A world without sufficient energy flows is a world without commerce. Trump fully understood the dangers of a collapsing global economy and was forced to give concessions to Iran.

Stocks

For the four-day week ended June 18, stocks held their ground for the most part, led by the NASDAQ which gained the most, 2.43%. Difficult to comprehend how the transportation average lost more than four percent on the week, given the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the U.S. blockade, lower fuel prices (could be that right there) and fewer constraints on travel and commerce, but that is how these markets roll. The transports, being just 20 stocks, are a volatile bunch.

The week ahead features only a few companies reporting first quarter results.

Tuesday: (before open) Carnival (CCL), Korn Ferry (KFY); (after close) FedEx (FDX), KB Home (KBH)

Wednesday: (before open) Daktronics (DART), Paychex (PAYX), NovaGold (NG); (after close) Worthington Steel (WS), H.B. Fuller (FUL), Micron Technologies (MU), Trip.com (TCOM)

Thursday: (before open) Winnebago (WGO), McCormick's (MKC), Blackberry (BB), Lotus (LOT); (after close) FedEx Freight (FDXF)

Friday: (before open) Apogee (APOG)

Somewhat of a quiet week in terms of economic events. Tuesday brings forward the S&P Global PMI Flash and Richmond Fed readings. On Wednesday, monthly Building Permits and New Home Sales along with weekly EIA oil and other energy stockpile readings. The Core PCE Index will be front and center on Thursday, offering an updated glimpse of inflation; also, the Chicago Fed reports economic activity and jobless claims weekly. Friday has Retail and Wholesale Inventories and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment poll.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90

Treasury yields continue to float below recent highs, but hardly in a convincing manner. Following Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's signal that little to no future guidance would be coming from the Fed, the knee-jerk reaction was to assume higher rates in terms of near to mid phase, despite little other than recent energy inflation to back up that position.

The treasury curve is orderly overall, and rates are stabilizing off the peace deal. Spreads - +27 basis points on 2s-10s, and +121 on full spectrum were markedly lower, suggesting some smooth sailing ahead, at least until the next crisis or the next FOMC meeting, July 28-29. Warsh's steady hand at his initial press conference was a confidence builder. He appears to have some level of reformism in his politics.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $76.54 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, continuing to price lower on the back of the deal struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. The parties are meeting in Geneva, Switzerland Sunday to begin delicate negotiations over nuclear and other pressing issues. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz seems to be re-opening to the free flow of oil and other resources.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.03 last week and $3.88 this week, the lowest prices since the war with Iran began more then three months ago.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, a practice that will probably continue until regular oil flows are reestablished, a process that most believe could take months. An elevated price for oil and gas at the pump may remain in place through the summer month.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.72 (-0.16)
Washington: $5.38 (-0.12)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.36 (-0.14)
Mississippi: $3.52 (-0.13)
Florida: $3.60 (-0.20)
Illinois: $4.15 (-0.19)
Pennsylvania: $4.09 (-0.11)
New York: $4.21 (-0.13)
Maryland: $3.80 (-0.01)
Michigan: $3.98 (-0.19)
Texas: $3.40 (-0.07)
Georgia: $3.60 (-0.12)

On Sunday, June 21st, there are sixteen (16) states with average prices below $4.00, with 32 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.55) and Alaska ($4.99), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past four weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.36-3.80) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.56 to $3.78.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,068.87
Last week: $64,048.96
2 weeks ago: $61,809.72
6 months ago: $88,877.88
One year ago: $101,220.00
Five years ago: $32,284.22

Bitcoin's rebound off recent lows seems to have pretty much run its course. There's no momentum to speak of, the only things driving price action are desperate attempts by whales and institutions to keep their losses minimized by bumping the price at regular intervals. Bitcoin, fiction that it is, will likely languish over the coming months, if only because it continues to be one of the worst investments going, down 26% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 64.13; last week: 62.03

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90

Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00

Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65

Precious metals remain in a buyer's market, with spot prices falling close to the lowest levels of the year. It's not surprising that gold and silver continue to be beaten down in favor of stocks and fixed income, dividend yielding instruments, the current rationale considers a rate hike by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, to be nearly set in stone, despite Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh offering no indication of any rate moves, up or down, at Wednesday's press conference.

The consensus opinion of the wisest economists - most of whom work for banks that favor dollar-denominated assets above all else - is that the Fed will respond to the inflation caused largely by rising oil and fuel costs due to the recent Middle East conflict. That thinking may be proven wrong in the immediate future, but only if the shaky peace deal made between Iran and the U.S. holds over the coming weeks and months. Separately, Israel and Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon have declared a temporary ceasefire, though it's well-known that the warring sides could escalate at the drop of a hat, or a bomb or missile, ostensibly from the Israeli side.

Putting aside geo-politics, gold and silver prices should not fall very much further if the spot market is to remain relevant. Central banks in Asia and Europe continue their buying at near-record paces, but the Gulf countries may have recently been selling gold holdings to make up for oil and distillate losses. Should oil markets continue to stabilize, demand for gold may increase, owing to a growing lack of faith in U.S. treasuries.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	72.05	99.00	82.11	79.08
1 oz silver bar:	72.00	89.00	78.28	76.45
1 oz gold coin:	4341.80	4511.80	4409.67	4393.07
1 oz gold bar:	4322.06	4426.02	4365.41	4364.88

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline, dropping to $78.98 on June 21, a loss of 97 cents per troy ounce, from the June 14 price of $79.95.

WEEKEND WRAP

Juneteenth came and went without much fanfare, other than people surprised their bank was closed for the day. That kind of thing happens when governments bend their policies toward stupidity. Someday, people will gain enough common sense to throw off the heavy hand of pushy politicians who want to control everything and send you the bill.

At the Close, Thursday, June 18, 2026:
Dow: 51,564.70, +72.15 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,517.93, +496.28 (+1.91%)
S&P 500: 7,500.58, +80.48 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,499.74, +29.98 (+0.13%)

For the Week:
Dow: +362.44 (+0.71%)
NASDAQ: +629.09 (+2.43%)
S&P 500: +69.12 (+0.93%)
NYSE Composite: -96.05 (-0.41%)
Dow Transports: -958.80 (-4.24%)

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