WEEKEND WRAP: Busy Week Ahead for Earnings, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales as Midterms Loom; Gold, Silver Recovery Underway; Yields Tamed, Though Still High

With early voting already underway, it has become imperative for the incumbent Republicans to maintain the status quo narrative, playing down inflation and high food and gas prices while maintaining a degree of allegiance to President Trump's radical foreign policies.

As the weeks wind down to the midterms, expect various distortions in news coverage, especially concerning the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, which appear to be spiraling out of control. Republicans maintain a posture favoring global intervention into any and all markets and international affairs, a deadly combination of monarchial-like power and monetary intrusion. Global affairs being lower on the list of priorities for American voters than food and gas prices, the Trump administration presently is free to pursue whatever policies and processes it prefers. Once elections are over, those may change, depending on, naturally, which party is declared the winner.

In the interim, investors have third quarter earnings to keep them occupied. Major banking institutions kick off the Q3 2026 earnings season next week, with reporting heavily concentrated on Tuesday and Wednesday of the week ahead.

Rolling earnings reports over the next three weeks should provide more than enough cover for the incumbents, with corporate earnings in many sectors expected to be positive. Stocks could very well set forth to new records. There will be plenty of opportunities to chase returns prior to the midterms and probably afterward.

One other aspect to bear in mind is that a good number of investment funds will be closing their books for 2026 at the end of October, likely locking in profits for the year. Demand for stocks may suffer the consequences of higher interest rates (yields) and the upcoming FOMC meeting falls just prior to Election Day with the Fed making its penultimate rate policy decision on October 28.

Keeping all things in perspective, there's a good probability of investment institutions - outside of earnings reactions - to take an wait-and-hold position. As crazy as the world may seem in the current environment, money managers may find reason enough to stand pat for a couple of weeks and see where things lay once the dust settles.

Stocks

Stocks got the usual Friday boost, putting all of the major indices into the positive column for the week with the noable exception of the Dow Transports, which finished lower by more than one percent. The NASDAQ and S&P each finished at record highs on Tuesday, October 6, and ended the week very close to those highs. Expectations for more record closes are high over the next two to three weeks with earnings coming forward hot and heavy.

The week ahead will be dominated by banking and financial institutions with some other major companies spicing up the lineup:

Tuesday, October 13 (before open): JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs(GS), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Albertson's (ACI), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), United Health Group (UNH)

Wednesday, October 14 (before open): Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), ASML (ASML), Progressive Insurance (PGR)

Thursday, October 15 (before open): U.S. Bancorp (USB), Charles Schwab (SCHW), PNC (PNC), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Ericsson (ERIC); (after close): Alcoa (AA), Simmons Bank (SFNC), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

Friday, October 16 (before open): M&T Bank (MTB), Truist Financial (TFC), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Regions Financial (RF), Travelers (TRV)

On the economic front, the market will take account of the NFIB Business Optimism Index and Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, with an important CPI reading out Wednesday prior to the opening bell, the last CPI report before both the FOMC meeting (October 27-28) and Election Day (November 3). Thursday will also be busy, with September PPI in focus, along with weekly unemployment claims, monthly reports from the NY Empire State and Philly Fed, and September Retail Sales. The weekly EIA crude and distillates report is also Thursday.

Friday's releases include Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, plus the Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count, and U.S. Import/Export Prices.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60

Yields dropped slightly from multi-year highs during the week past, though hardly a ringing endorsement for lower rates overall. Long-dated treasuries remain threatened by excessive corporate issuance in the AI/tech space, crowding out buyers and sending prices for treasury notes and bonds lower.

Significantly, yields on bills spiked, with one-month and three-month issues adding nine and six basis points, respectively. Those advances crimped the full spectrum spread back to +147, a 12-bip move lower. 2s-10s were static for the week, moving just one basis point lower.

Concern over high interest rates continues to be a sore spot for the U.S. Treasury. Secretary Scott Bessent's recent parlay into buybacks of government debt hardly moved anybody's core positioning. At best, he kept interest rates from spiking even higher. Under current conditions, which includes high inflation, a lack of international bidders, and stubborn buyers demanding higher yields, there's little the secretary or anybody else can do to curb an ongoing interest rate rise across the entire curve. Inflation remains a priority for the Federal Reserve, though odds of another rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting remain low, with less than 18% believing the Fed will hike rates at the upcoming meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Election politics also come into play, many believing that Chairman Warsh would dare raise rates right before the midterms.

But, no, the Fed is not politically-motivated. Also, DOGE and tariff rebate checks are in the mail.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9" +44

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147

Oil/Gas

Oil prices continues to trend in a range of $91-93 for WTI crude on the futures market, as the incumbent party attempts to keep a lid on prices despite escalating conditions in the Middle East. How long futures markets can contain oil prices remains a major concern for President Trump and his Republican allies heading into the midterms. So far, so good, with prices holding in what's considered a somewhat reasonable range.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.33 last week and $4.34 this week, holding steady after a price drop the week prior. Lower prices at the pump are a positive for the Republican party. Early voting has already begun in some states while the price of gas remains unacceptably high. The belief by MAGA Republicans that high fuel prices are temporary will be a key consideration in midterm voting patterns.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.39 (+0.01)
Washington: $5.44 (-0.02)
Indiana: $3.92 (+0.18)
Oklahoma: $3.97 (+0.05)
Louisiana: $3.91 0.01)
Mississippi: $3.89 (-0.02)
Florida: $4.11 (+0.07)
Illinois: $4.71 (+0.06)
Pennsylvania: $4.45 (-0.02)
New York: $4.43 (-0.03)
Maryland: $4.24 (+0.03)
Michigan: $4.67 (+0.22)
Texas: $3.78 (lowest) (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.77 (-0.01)

On Sunday, October 11, there are thirty-sex (36) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twelve (12) below the $4 threshold (other than Indiana, all clustered in the Southeast), not including Hawaii ($5.64) and Alaska ($4.95), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 15 weeks, with prices falling below $4.00 this week ($3.78-3.95) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.00 to $4.25. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $82,717.91
Last week: $85,242.28
2 weeks ago: $84,540.25
6 months ago: $72,892.87
One year ago: $112,530.80
Five years ago: $61,855.90

Crypto and bitcoin remain bid, though off recent highs. SSDD.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.09; last week: 68.59

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30

Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11

SPOT: (kitco)
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60

Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70

Once China's markets reopened from the Golden Week holiday on Thursday, prices for gold and silver rebounded sharply, confirming that the LBMA and COMEX had been artificially suppressing prices for precious metals on their derivative markets while the main driver and price-maker, China, was absent.

There need be no more obvious proof that price suppression, a tactic of the U.S. government and its open market agents, has continued for many years, even decades. Without the suppression mechanism, it's likely that gold would have returned to its rightful place as a neutral reserve currency many years ago, and the U.S. government forced to either abandon or revalue the U.S. dollar, the latter being the most probably circumstance.

The current alignment of Western nations acting against the best interests of honest money portends continued volatility in precious metals markets. China continues to acquire gold at a record pace along with other non-Western-aligned Asian and African nations. For PM investors in the U.S., U.K. or Europe, the handwriting could not be more obvious. The world is turning to gold as the standard of exchange and store of value for central banks and national interests. This process - of extinguishing a fiat-based reserve currency with one that has stood the test of time for thousands of years - is slow and often frustrating. Recent years, however, have shown that gold's resilience and acceptance is quite strong and growing worldwide.

Silver's condition mirrors that of gold, though at a more nuanced level. It's use as an industrial, medical, and military metal outpaces its role as a monetary one, but, given the recent levels of the gold:silver ratio (GSR) around 70 and slightly below, it's apparent that silver will follow gold's advances and declines in a somewhat orderly fashion and at some points become the value option of choice. History is filled with settlements of the GSR at levels far below those of the current environment, with most falling between 12 and 16 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. A world in which gold and silver are finally properly valued will be one in which individuals have control over their own wealth without being subjected to the whims and mendaciousness of kings, royals, and Keynesian-inspired governments.

While China's Golden Week did not align properly with the Western Monday-Sunday regime, running from Thursday-Wednesday, there was some distortion in reported prices, which at Money Daily are either Fridays or Sundays. Thus, prices do not reflect the severe declines in gold and silver that were experienced in the early part of the week (Monday-Wednesday). One might be well-advised to look back one more week, to 9/25, for a more reasonable expectation of prices over the coming days and weeks. Additionally, once the midterms are over and done, prices may catch a serious bid in whatever aftermath presents itself in the U.S. concerning foreign, fiscal, and monetary policies.

No matter what, demand from central banks for gold and industrial uses for silver remain well anchored. Investment demand remains the missing link to the gold/silver story. Once acceptance of gold and silver becomes essential to institutions and individuals, the prices will rise accordingly. In a more sinister - and correct - sense, the further the U.S. dollar declines in purchasing power, the higher the prices of gold and silver will soar.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	67.00	79.99	73.65	73.84
1 oz silver bar:	66.00	83.87	74.48	74.81
1 oz gold coin:	4189.99	4750.00	4430.79	4408.70
1 oz gold bar:	4225.00	4472.67	4390.18	4387.49

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rebounded sharply this week, rising to $74.20 , a gain of $3.37 per troy ounce from the October 4 price of $70.87.

WEEKEND WRAP

Patience may be the key to a sensible investment strategy until the midterms, which are now just more than three weeks ahead, though early voting is already underway in a handful of states and by the end of the week will be widespread, a benchmark for early voting being 15-20 days prior to election day, putting full-on early voting roughly between October 13 and 18.

Bearing in mind that the politicians and staffs involved in various key races will be keeping tabs on exit polling, there is certainly to be a degree of media meddling and posturing by candidates. Traditional midterm metrics have incumbents (Republicans) losing 15-25 seats in the House and 3-6 sets in the Senate. Should Democrats gain control of both houses, there is likely to be a call for change in the policies of the presidential administration, though a radical shift is unlikely.

Should Democrats prevail, there's a good chance of stocks taking a hit, as most investment managers and big money power brokers prefer a more "conservative" agenda rather than looser policies of tax, borrow, and spend, though, in reality, neither party has shown any propensity for fiscal restraint.

In the end, whichever party ends up in control of the congress, government policy is unlikely to change in a positive, more austere manner. American citizens may be subject to more historical patterns, meaning more and more of the same.

At the Close, Friday, October 9, 2026:
Dow: 51,654.95, +423.31 (+0.83%)
NASDAQ: 27,366.17, +172.83 (+0.64%)
S&P 500: 7,811.54, +46.18 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 23,939.10, +141.50 (+0.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: +477.99 (+0.93%)
NASDAQ: +175.31 (+0.64%)
S&P 500: +88.82 (+1.15%)
NYSE Composite: +284.79 (+1.20%)
Dow Transports: -205.61 (-1.03%)
Dow Transports: -205.61 (-1.03%)

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