Federal Reserve's QE Today is The Big Short Revisited in a Bigger Manner

Steve Carell and Ryan Gosling in scene from "The Big Short"

On the first trading day of 2020, stocks advanced sharply, fueled by naked capitalism and the desire to not miss out on any profitable opportunity.

That's the truth of the matter, usually every day, so long as the Federal Reserve continues to pump fresh capital into the already bloated financial system. The trouble with the Fed's desire to keep Wall Street flush with cash is that enriching a small number of already-wealthy people hasn't had the desired effect of "trickling down" to the general population.

It didn't work when the Fed rescued the financial system in 2007-09, hasn't since, and won't in the future. Known generally as QE (Quantitative Easing) it's a failed policy that produces nothing other than overpriced financial assets, monstrous bubbles, and eventually, mass damage to the very system it's purported to be protecting. Since September of last year (2019) the Fed has already pumped nearly a trillion dollars into the Wall Street casino and it's balance sheet has exploded by another $500 billion.

To say that the Fed's promotion of QE is as bad as the systemic fraud that ran rampant within the sub-prime mortgage bundling that triggered the GFC in 2007-09 might be taking the comparison a step too far, but it surely is worth nominal consideration.
The players are mostly the same: Wall Street tycoons representing trading firms of the biggest banks bent on maximizing profits, relaxed, corrupted, and often incompetent regulators, an unsuspecting public that eventually gets fleeced.

In comparison to the sub-prime hustle, the rollers and managers of the mortgage bundling are now - as before - manned by the trading desks of the big Wall Street firms. The Fed is the enabler, a la the ratings agencies during sub-prime, and mouth-breathing borrowers with low credit scores seeking to purchase a home are replaced today by anybody participating in a pension fund, college fund, 401k or other managed investment vehicle. That's why sub-prime was called the housing bubble and the ongoing, current arrangement is called the "everything bubble." Everything is up for grabs and everything is at stake.

This all has been tied together neatly since the GFC, as, after $750 billion in TARP was exhausted, three bouts of QE commenced, secret loans from the Fed to foreign banks were proffered, and nobody of any importance went to jail over the excesses of the sub-prime boom and subsequent bust. Nobody. They're mostly all still there, having cashed mammoth bonus checks provided by the TARP bailout, plotting the next windfall.

Lewis' book is revealing and riveting,
available everywhere, for a song.

Michael Lewis' great book, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, and the movie it spawned, The Big Short, offer a reveal of just what happened in the run-up to the sub-prime crisis and how a number of smart and/or lucky investors were able to capitalize on the general greed, stupidity, and fraud perpetrated by wall Street banks.

In the film, Ryan Gosling plays Jared Vennett, the fictional character based on the real-life Deutsche Bank trader, Greg Lippman. Christian Bale plays the real-life Michael Burry, the Scion Asset Management leader who risked his firm and cashed in when MBS and CDOs went bust, but the lion of the story comes n the character of Mark Baum (Steve Eisman in real life) played passionately by Steve Carell as the angry, perplexed head of Frontline Partners, the independent Morgan Stanley trading unit that bet against CDOs and made millions in the sub-prime collapse.

Carell, as Mark Baum, sets up the character and the film's premise in his first scene, railing against big banks charging outrageous fees for overdrafts. His defiant, conflicted, crusading manner defined, Carell storms through the film wide-eyed and aghast at what's about to happen to the global financial structure, outspoken and often outrageous. Nearing the end, he - and the character of Ben Rickert (based on real life, former JP Morgan trader, Ben Hockett, and portrayed in a sublimated, almost solemn manner by Brad Pitt) - realizes that he is betting on the collapse of the bedrock of global finance, the US housing industry, and trillions of dollars will be lost, millions of people will lose homes. The fate of the world weighs heavy upon him.

The Big Short film is well worth watching again, as is a thorough reading of the original Michael Lewis book by the same name. In case you haven't seen the movie or read the book, this qualifies as a MUST, if you have money at risk in any kind of investment because it all is happening again, in a different venue, on an even larger, more obscene scale. Sub-prime took years to grow, metastasize and engulf the financial system. The ongoing "everything bubble," with pension and other long-term passive investments as the target, will literally take decades, and it's already well underway.

It's all happening again in a bigger and more destructive way and it's happening right NOW.

The book and film are available at screaming low prices on Ebay, Amazon and various streaming services (for the film). A purchase is likely to be some of the best investment money ever spent and an understanding of the process will reveal the fraud and deceit being parlayed right beneath the public's noses. Both the book and the film are revealing, frightening, and true.

EDIT: Money Daily may not always be on top of the news, but today's major blast posting may turn out to be prescient. Just moments ago, Wall Street On Parade, the noteworthy blog published by Wall Street insiders, Russ and Pam Martens, released a related post: The Doomsday Machine Returns: Citibank Has Sold Protection On $858 Billion of Credit Default Swaps. In the article, the writers contend that the dark doom of 2008 may be hanging over the canyons of Wall Street once again, as not just Citibank, but JP Morgan Chase as well, have taken big positions in Credit Default Swaps "that are being used to reignite the synthetic Collateralized Loan Obligation (synthetic CDO) market - which vastly added to the leverage that blew up Wall Street in 2008."

Stay tuned.

A few choice clips from the film:







At the Close, Thursday, January 2, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,868.80, +330.36 (+1.16%)
NASDAQ: 9,092.19, +119.58 (+1.33%)
S&P 500: 3,257.85, +27.07 (+0.84%)
NYSE Composite: 14,002.49, +89.46 (+0.64%)

Monday Push-ups; How the Dow Jones Industrial Average Makes New Highs

Players, speculators and people with more money than they know what to do with stepped up on Monday to buy the dip created when all four major indices closed in the red last week.

Such action is like stepping on a pile of dog poo, wiping it off and stepping into it again. The insanity of investors apparently has no bounds because of ever-increasing liquidity created by the Federal Reserve, the seeming limitlessness of stock buybacks by hundreds of corporations and the hunt for yield by fund managers.

This activity, while cheered on by the financial press, the mainstream press and every other value-clueless pundit of the wonders of free market capitalism, cannot continue without some reckoning, not perhaps a final one, but at least a corrective phase. What happened in October and December of last year has apparently been forgotten, as investors piled into stocks with abandon in this holiday-shortened trading week.

Markets will be closed on Thanksgiving Thursday and close early (1:00 pm ET) on Black Friday, the day celebrated as an orgy of spending and holiday shopping, replete with door-busting deals and the associated mayhem and violence that stems from hundreds of people trying to get into stores earliest to grab oversized TVs, plastic junk from the Republic of China, and other goods marked as low as 50-80% off.

Winning days on Wall Street have - over the course of the last 10 years or so - become something of a yawn-fest, as stocks breached record highs on numerous occasions every year since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. Higher stock prices are to be expected. They are the norm, but nobody wants to actually look at what they're buying, only the gains they're making. It's almost as if the companies in which people are investing will return massive profits for 100 years or longer, or that the 30 stocks comprising the Dow Industrials will never change (they do, and frequently).

Beginning with AIG being dropped from the Dow in September of 2008, 10 companies have been either ousted, merged and/or replaced in the world's leading index. That's a third of the companies. No wonder it's at record highs. The bad companies - the latest being General Electric (GE) - are replaced with companies with better growth potential and the capacity for higher share prices. It would be like lowering the height of the basket a few inches every year for LeBron James. Upon reaching 40 years of age, the NBA superstar could dunk without jumping or even reaching up very high.

For today, the NBA basket is still 10 feet off the floor, but the mastery of financial deception belongs in those goal-post movers on the executive board of Dow Jones.

At the Close, Monday, November 25, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,066.47, +190.85 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ: 8,632.49, +112.60 (+1.32%)
S&P 500: 3,133.64, +23.35 (+0.75%)
NYSE Composite: 13,532.89, +91.94 (+0.68%)

Scam Alert: PayPal Credit, Synchrony Bank Playing Hide and Seek With Special Financing Purchase Offers

by Fearless Rick Gagliano, editor, Money Daily

     When it comes to banking in general, most Americans (Europeans and Asians, as well, we might assume) are skeptical about institutional sincerity and customer care. After all, it was just a decade ago that some of the biggest banks in the world were caught up in a messy triage with overzealous rating agencies and absent regulators that sent global finance to its knees.

Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, there have been more than few dubious practices entertained by major banks. Wells-Fargo comes to mind, whose employees, paragons of virtue all, no doubt, opened accounts in people's names without their knowledge, among other scandalous activity.

Certainly, the annals of banking history are rife with examples of financial trickery, pandering and assorted crimes and misdemeanors carried on by monied institutions, all in the name of profit and greed.

With the advent of the internet age, banking has become more streamlined, varied and accessible to anyone with a smartphone, tablet or computer. Offerings from non-bank institutions abound. The leader among transactional vendors being PayPal, the the online business-consumer, peer-to-peer middleman company founded in part by Elon Musk, Max Levchin, and Peter Thiel made its name by offering online accounts to anybody who could "fog a mirror" and with a few nickels to rub together.

With an IPO in 2002 and subsequent acquisition by online auctioneer eBay, PayPal became the de facto standard for online payments. Reacting to a squabble from investor Carl Ichan, eBay divested itself from PayPal in 2014 and since then PayPal has been a stand-alone company. It was late in 2008 and early 2009 that PayPal, after acquiring the company known as Bill Me Later, began to offer credit to consumers. Aptly named PayPal Credit, a complete credit and debiting system aimed at the massive consumer audience worldwide was established.

Among their many marketing tactics, PayPal Credit offered a wildly popular option called special purchase financing, bearing zero interest for six months on purchases of $99 or more if paid in full during the allotted time. That promotion still exists today, but the present and recent past are where the issues of dubious claims and incomplete disclosure of terms begins.


Enter Synchrony

PayPal partnered with consumer credit giant, Synchrony Financial, to offer credit cards to PayPal account holders in 2004 and took the relationship even further in 2017, when it sold $5.8 billion in consumer credit receivables to Synchrony Financial, effectively yielding control over the operation of PayPal Credit to Synchrony.

It was around that time in 2017 that how payments on PayPal Credit accounts were allocated was altered. When parent company PayPal was operating PayPal Credit, allocations of payments on accounts were handled roughly as anything over the minimum required payment on the entire account was then allocated to the special purchase financing.

For example, a PayPal Credit account holder, with, say, $1000 existing outstanding balance and a minimum monthly payment of $40, makes a purchase for $500 and takes advantage of the Zero Interest for Six Months if Paid in Full Special Financing Purchase. When the account holder makes a payment, say $100, $40 would cover the outstanding minimum credit payment and the remaining $60 would be applied to the Special Financing Purchase. That was pretty standard, and logical.

No more. Now, when that same account holder (or any account holder) with an existing outstanding balance makes the same transaction, the entirety of his or her payment goes toward the account balance and NONE is allocated to the Special Financing Purchase until the final 60 days of said Special Financing Purchase. In the meantime, interest accrues on the Special Financing Purchase at the full amount, in our case, $500. If the Special Financing Purchase balance is not paid off in full at the expiration of the six months, all of the accrued interest becomes part of the account balance due.

Nowhere in the terms and conditions of Special Financing Purchase is this made obvious or even mentioned to consumers. It is only revealed when (as our Editor found out) one questions PayPal Credit customer support by phone or by online chat. The response to why this devious practice is maintained, is that PayPal Credit and/or Synchrony Financial uses best practices in allocating funds in this manner. It's almost a certainty that said best practices are what's best for the bank, not the consumer, and here's why:

Beyond the failure to disclose this in-house allocation rule, the bank (Synchrony, in this case), has interest accruing on that Special Financing Purchase (remember, ZERO interest for six months if paid in full) at the full amount of the purchase, not at a lesser amount if account holder payment allocations were done the old way, in a moral, reasonable, and logical manner. It also sets up the casual account holder for a shock, when he/she looks at the Special Financing Purchase and realizes that with two months left to pay off the Special Financing Purchase at Zero Percent he or she still owes the full amount.

Unless one is careful enough to scrutinize the monthly statements generated by PayPal Credit, this poor or mis-allocation of payments - done in the name of best practices - can easily go unnoticed, especially if one makes automatic or automated monthly payments, a practice which all banks and credit card companies strongly encourage.

There is some relief, maybe.

Calls to PayPal Credit on this or any credit account issue result in referral to Synchrony. The supervisor with which Money Daily spoke on Thursday, November 7, elicited the response that payments can be allocated to the Special Financing Purchase if one calls Synchrony at 1-844-373-4961 and requests the payments be directed according to the wishes of the account holder, and NOT in the manner usually employed by the BANK (Synchrony). Synchrony says they will honor such requests and process them, but allocations will not show up on online accounts for "a few days."

Additionally, none of this would apply to anybody who isn't carrying a balance (the wise and fortunate 20-30% of account holders) with PayPal Credit and the only purchase made was a Special Financing Purchase. In that case, all of the monthly payment would be applied to the deferred interest financing because that's all there is.

Therein lies the problem. Instead of doing business in a morally correct, logical, reasonable, responsible, and customer-friendly manner, Synchrony Financial has chosen the usual path of 21st century bankers: deceit, incomplete disclosure, "gotcha" terms and "special financing" with in-house rules designed to maximize the bank's profitability, the customer be damned. To do business in what would normally be considered the "best practice" for the consumer, the account holder has to go out of his or her way to make a special phone call, jump through hoops, listen to all of the recordings and prompts to get what should have been done automatically. This is, after all, the age of high-speed communications and the internet, not Ma Bell's twisted copper.

If this practice isn't illegal, it would be no shock today. Financial institutions have been afforded wide latitude in their dealings with the public, to encourage loans, credit, and debt in a wide array of products and offerings.

In a world in which sanity, fairness, and reasonableness would be the norm, this kind of operation might be considered fraud at worst, bait-and-switch at best. But today, in our world of glorification of all things money and financial, where the dollar sign is revered and worshipped, it barely registers a "lookie here." It's a sad commentary on the state of morality and banking when gigantic, faceless institutions are able to run roughshod over consumers. It goes against the public interest, an interest, incidentally, that nobody - from bankers to consumer credit agencies to politicians - seems to be even remotely interested in protecting.

So, what do you think? Is this practice just run-of-the-mill deceit and standard underhandedness by PayPal Credit and Synchrony Financial, or does it rise to or border on criminal mischief, something banking regulators or congress should address? Comments are open, and are moderated.

Anybody experiencing issues such as those outlined above should call Synchrony at 1-844-373-4961 and complain loudly.

Be polite, but overall, be careful.

UPDATE: Found a thread on the PayPal boards dealing with this very issue. Many are fuming about it.
See here: https://www.paypal-community.com/t5/PayPal-Credit/PayPal-Credit-Promotional-Payment-Allocation/m-p/1553309/highlight/false#M8392

UPDATE 11/27/19: This issue will remain, as the actions of Synchrony are guided by Regulation Z. See the updated blog post:
https://moneydaily.blogspot.com/2019/11/weekend-wrap-paypal-creditsynchrony.html

At the Close, Thursday, November 7, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,674.80, +182.24 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: 8,434.52, +23.89 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 3,085.18, +8.40 (+0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 13,395.55, +43.98 (+0.33%)

Dow Losing Streak at Five Days; NASDAQ Resistant to Reality

After losing 84 points on Friday, the Dow extended its losing streak to five days, shedding 103 points to open the trading week. The total loss since June 11 is nothing to get excited about, a mere 335 points, less than 1 1/2 percent, but the lows set in intra-day trading both Friday and Monday were successively deeper.

Friday's low of 24,902.01, was exceeded Monday at 24,825.77, which was set just minutes into the session. The pattern of lower lows and lower closes over the past five sessions is a worrying sign to macro market watchers.

While the Dow slides, the NASDAQ continues to hold its own or make new gains, though the opening on Monday was ugly, with the NAZ down 70 points just after the bell. Today's tiny gain failed to excite anybody but the most committed bulls, who may be charging into a classic trap, with declining volume and indications from the Dow that aren't exactly encouraging.

This week got off to a poor start and there is little in the way of data to support any kind of news-driven uptick. It may turn out to be one of the duller weeks of the summer, which officially begins on Wednesday, June 20.

What's driving investors into speculative positions in the NASDAQ is the lack of positive returns from either Dow stocks or treasury bonds. The former appears too risky, with dividend yields ranging from 1.75% to 2.75% on the individual components, while the bond market continues to defy the Fed, as the 10-year note refuses to bang through the three percent mark.

Bonds barely budged today, but the yield curve tightened as the two year bill yield added one basis point to 2.56, and the 10-year slipped to 2.92, leaving the 2s-10s spread at a decade low 36 basis points.

That's a notable number, as the last time the spread was so slim was in 2007, just prior to one of the worst financial crashes in market history. As is sometimes quoted, "history may not always repeat, but it does often rhyme." Treasuries seem to be rhyming well with conditions prior to the GFC. Unrestrained credit, high leverage, overvaluation prominent in financial assets. In 2007, it was mostly hard assets, i.e., houses, that were rocketing in value. Today's only difference is that it's now stocks which are out of bounds for all but the most speculative players and plungers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average June Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
6/1/18	24,635.21	+219.37	+219.37
6/4/18	24,813.69	+178.48	+397.85
6/5/18	24,799.98	-13.71	+384.14
6/6/18	25,146.39	+346.41	+730.55
6/7/18	25,241.41	+95.02	+825.57
6/8/18	25,316.53	+75.12	+900.69
6/11/18	25,322.31	+5.78	+906.47
6/12/18	25,320.73	-1.58	+904.89
6/13/18	25,201.20	-119.53	+785.36
6/14/18	25,175.31	-25.89	+759.47
6/15/18	25,090.48	-84.83	+674.64
6/18/18	24,987.47	-103.01	+571.63

At the Close, Monday, June 18, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,987.47, -103.01 (-0.41%)
NASDAQ: 7,747.02, +0.65 (+0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,773.87, -5.79 (-0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 12,706.73, -27.91 (-0.22%)

Will May End With A Bang Or A Thud? Italy And Tommy Robinson Creating European Chaos

Following a three-day weekend, US markets caught up to the panic that was gripping Europe, adding onto the global rout in stocks by sending the Dow Jones Industrials lower by nearly 400 points.

Tuesday's big fallout left the Dow's gains for the month at great risk. The Industrial Average was close to erasing all of May's gains before a late-stage rally brought the index back up by 147 points into the close.

With only two trading days left in the month, May looks to follow April with a gain of less than one percent. April's total gain was a mere 50 points, following massive losses in February (-1120.19) and March (-926.09). With Europe's problems far from over (Italy being the main culprit), selling in May could turn out to be the most prudent - if not cliched - advice as global events are continuing to tarnish the shine on America's nascent economic rebirth.

Italians, struggling with immigration issues, have seen their government devolve into autocracy, as president Sergio Mattarella unilaterally quashed the creation of a right-leaning government coalition.

Chaos in Italy has sparked a run on bonds and European banks, spreading to stocks. On Tuesday, most of the major national exchanges saw losses in excess of one percent, adding onto previous declines.

News out of Britain also contributed to the sea of madness, as authorities arrested activist Tommy Robinson and immediately sentenced him to 13 months in prison, adding a media ban on his arrest and the pedophile grooming trial on which he was attempting to report. The unjustified jailing of Robinson has sparked outrage and rallies for his release throughout Britain and some European capitals.

Overarching political events are merely masking the underlying weakness in global markets which still seem incapable of forgetting the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and Europe's own mini-crisis in 2011. Since little to nothing was done to correct the issues which plagued the world's largest economies, the past appears to have risen from the crypt and threatens to plunge economics and nations into another depressing episode.

With the Dow taking its worst loss in over a month, January 23rd's all-time high of 26,616.71 is now four months off in the fading distance. Bear market dynamics continue to drive a stake into the heart of the "recovery" narrative.

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
5/1/18	24,099.05	-64.10	-64.10
5/2/18	23,924.98	-174.07	-238.17
5/3/18	23,930.15	+5.17	-233.00
5/4/18	24,262.51	+332.36	+99.36
5/7/18	24,357.32	+94.81	+194.17
5/8/18	24,360.21	+2.89	+197.06
5/9/18	24,542.54	+182.33	+379.39
5/10/18	24,739.53	+196.99	+576.38
5/11/18	24,831.17	+91.64	+668.02
5/14/18	24,899.41	+68.24	+736.26
5/15/18	24,706.41	-193.00	+543.26
5/16/18	24,768.93	+62.52	+605.78
5/17/18	24,713.98	-54.95	+550.73
5/18/18	24,715.09	+1.11	+551.84
5/21/18	25,013.29	+298.20	+850.04
5/22/18	24,834.41	-178.88	+671.16
5/23/18	24,886.81	+52.40	+723.56
5/24/18	24,811.76	-75.05	+648.51
5/25/18	24,753.09	-58.67	+589.84
5/29/18	24,361.45	-391.64	+198.20

At the Close, Tuesday, May 29, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,361.45, -391.64 (-1.58%)
NASDAQ: 7,396.59, -37.26 (-0.50%)
S&P 500: 2,689.86, -31.47 (-1.16%)
NYSE Composite: 12,442.69, -192.25 (-1.52%)

Weekend Wrap: Oil Slips Lower, Stocks Stagnate, Bond Yields Plunge

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed out at 2:45 pm EDT, down by 124 points on the day. From that point - with an hour and fifteen minutes remaining in the session - stocks magically rose by 68 points to end the day down marginally.

This pattern had been tested on both Wednesday and Thursday, as stocks took deep losses on both days, though Friday's low was much later in the session than it was the previous two days. Friday's low was also more shallow, the implication being that a major force (such as the - hush now - PPT) came to the market's aid in the nick of time.

That there might have been intervention on Friday, and indeed, on all three days, is not far-fetched. Nobody in positions of power were interested in a market crash just before the Memorial Day weekend. That is being saved for a more opportune time, such as just prior to the November mid-term elections.

If this is too much intrigue and conspiracy theory for you, dear reader, you can stop reading right here, though the naivety of burying one's head in a sand dune isn't going to make you any smarter, nor is it going to grant you immunity from market dynamics, be they either contrived or natural.

As seen in the scorecard and weekly data below, the Dow ended with a small 38-point gain and is lower than where it was two weeks ago, the bulk of May's advance made during an eight-day run starting on the 3rd and ending on the 14th, which was, notably a Monday. Tuesday the 15th saw the streak ended with a thud of -193 points. Since then, stocks have essentially gone nowhere and this week saw minor advances on the major indices with the notable exception of the NYSE Composite, which suffered a loss commensurate with the gain on the NASDAQ.

Confused? Not yet. Trading in stocks, always a risky business, is about to become something that defies quantification. Money is moving around markets at a dizzying rate, fueled by geo-politics and, in the main, a massive amount of misunderstanding of how markets are being distorted and defiled.

It's now more than three months since the waterfall effects of February which sent stocks into a state of bearish hibernation or paralysis from which they have yet to recover. The longer stocks fail to reflate towards their all-time highs the stronger the argument for a bear market becomes.

The problem with a bear market at this juncture is that stocks continue to underpin all manner of funds, especially public employee pensions, which are already massively underfunded. An extended market decline would push these funds further underwater and possibly trigger a liquidity trap which would make the 2008-09 financial crisis appear tame by comparison.

States like Illinois, California, Connecticut and New Jersey have the biggest underfunding problem and a bear market would blow out all of their actuarial projections. Not that these massive pension funds are going to go broke right away, rather they would see their future positions eroded to a point at which raising taxes, seeking higher employee contributions, reduction in services, or slashing payouts to retires will all be proposals on the table in an effort to salvage the failed over-promises of delinquent politicians.

A pension crisis might be just the tip of the proverbial iceberg that is the cumulative national debt shared by federal and state governments, businesses and individuals. Of the three, private businesses are most likely the best insulated from a market downturn and subsequent liquidity emergency, though they are by no means standing on safe ground. With the average American family or individual deeply indebted, businesses large and small will suffer from decreased volume and a general deterioration of business conditions. Such conditions are already well underway in small, rural communities lacking sufficiently large markets and audiences. Some largely Northeast and Midwest areas have never recovered from the Great Financial Crisis of a decade ago and another negative event could be potentially devastating. Government would be unable to collect taxes from an overburdened population and businesses would be faced with the indelicate choices of laying off employees, cutting back on goods or services or closing the doors for good.

The heavy reliance on stocks alone to lead the nation out of the deep depression of 2008 has set the stage for a rather unwelcome asset collapse and recent stock market activity is serving fair warning.

The only data this week that suggested a possible way out or easing of the tightening conditions (which the Fed is fueling with reckless abandon) were the decline in oil prices (from above $72 to below $68) and the crunching of yields in the treasury market. The 10-year note topped out at 3.11% before ending the week massively lower, at 2.93%, a huge move in a significant market.

What oil and bonds are foretelling is nothing less than a full-blown recession within six to eight months, signaling that consumers cannot sustain demand for energy and businesses and government cannot withstand rising borrowing costs.

All of these conditions are contributing to a very volatile situation which, thus far, has been contained by the Fed and the deep underground traders, attempting to keep equity prices at premiums. The chances of this lasting though the summer into the fall are Slim to None, and Slim has left town.

Dow Jones Industrial Average May Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
5/1/18	24,099.05	-64.10	-64.10
5/2/18	23,924.98	-174.07	-238.17
5/3/18	23,930.15	+5.17	-233.00
5/4/18	24,262.51	+332.36	+99.36
5/7/18	24,357.32	+94.81	+194.17
5/8/18	24,360.21	+2.89	+197.06
5/9/18	24,542.54	+182.33	+379.39
5/10/18	24,739.53	+196.99	+576.38
5/11/18	24,831.17	+91.64	+668.02
5/14/18	24,899.41	+68.24	+736.26
5/15/18	24,706.41	-193.00	+543.26
5/16/18	24,768.93	+62.52	+605.78
5/17/18	24,713.98	-54.95	+550.73
5/18/18	24,715.09	+1.11	+551.84
5/21/18	25,013.29	+298.20	+850.04
5/22/18	24,834.41	-178.88	+671.16
5/23/18	24,886.81	+52.40	+723.56
5/24/18	24,811.76	-75.05	+648.51
5/25/18	24,753.09	-58.67	+589.84

At the Close, Friday, May 25, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,753.09, -58.67 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 7,433.8535, +9.42 (+0.13%)
S&P 500: 2,721.33, -6.43 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,634.94, -61.75 (-0.49%)

For the Week:
Dow: +38.00 (+0.15%)
NASDAQ: +79.51 (+1.08%)
S&P 500: +8.36 (+0.31%)
NYSE Composite: -82.48 (-0.65%)

Rally On! Dow Regains More Than Half of February Losses

With the Dow Industrials posting the fifth straight positive session, he blue chip average has regained more than half of the losses incurred during the first six trading sessions of February.

Standing just above 25,200, the Dow has been an impressive performer following the instant, interest rate sensitive melt-down earlier in the month.

The Dow is up more than 1000 points this week, with Friday's session important as stock options reach expiration.

Last week's scare has morphed into this week's buying opportunity, as investors have scrambled back into stocks after equity funds experienced record outflows just a week prior.

Those who sold at the interim bottom may be experiencing some seller's remorse presently, though the stock market has still has some distance to travel back to all-time highs.

Has anything changed besides sentiment, which is now returning to bullishness after a spat of fear entered the minds of speculators?

Certainly, rising interest rates are a concern, with the 10-year-note reaching four-year highs. The value of the US dollar, as reflected in currency FX pairs and the Dollar Index, is another new feature of the cycle-weary market. The dollar has weakened considerably over the past 12 months and does not appear to have four support.

Higher interest rates on treasuries usually causes strengthening in the dollar, but not this time, befuddling the normally-smug bond and currency analysts. If bond yields continue to rise and the dollar does not recover substantially, then all manner of economic theory can be tossed out the proverbial window.

Whatever the case may be - not discounting the effect of accelerating volatility during the recent downturn - there remains considerable uncertainty which must somehow be resolved, either by a permanent change in market direction from bull to bear, or a continuation of the long rally off the GFC lows of 2009.

Dow Jones Industrial Average February Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
2/1/18	26,186.71	+37.32	+37.32
2/2/18	25,520.96	-665.75	-628.43
2/5/18	24,345.75	-1,175.21	-1,803.64
2/6/18	24,912.77	+567.02	-1,236.62
2/7/18	24,893.35	-19.42	-1,256.04
2/8/18	23,860.46	-1,032.89	-2288.93
2/9/18	24,190.90	+330.44	-1958.49
2/12/18	24,601.27	+410.37	-1548.12
2/13/18	24,640.45	+39.18	-1508.94
2/14/18	24,893.49	+253.04	-1255.90
2/15/18	25,200.37	+306.88	-949.02

At the Close, Thursday, February 15, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,200.37, +306.88 (+1.23%)
NASDAQ: 7,256.43, +112.81 (+1.58%)
S&P 500: 2,731.20, +32.57 (+1.21%)
NYSE Composite: 12,856.87, +110.15 (+0.86%)

Don't Count on a Market Correction in this Environment

For a change, stocks took a little dip to open the week, but it was certainly nothing by which anybody was rattled or otherwise deterred from buying ever more expensive stocks.

Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, the favorite acronym of traders has been BTD, otherwise known as Buy The Dip, which is exactly what is to be expected when markets open on Tuesday.

Almost without fail - actually, fully without fail - US equity indices, since March of 2009, have never fallen much more than a few percentage points before ramping back to new all-time highs. While there have been occasions in which the dip in stocks has persisted over a period of weeks or months, there has been no failure to recover in recent years.

Anybody invested on more than a casual basis is aware that central bank largesse and stock buybacks have been the primary drivers of stock market prosperity, and even with the Federal Reserve beginning to engage in the process of unwinding its balance sheet - selling off much of its horde of $4.5 million in bonds and other sketchy assets - there seems to be little to scare investors away from he equity bandwagon.

It's largely a controlled environment, nothing like the heydays of the 50s and 60s, when America was a growing concern and didn't need monetary boosts to fuel investment markets. Today's markets and investors are completely synthetic, consisting mainly of larger brokerages and funds of all types, from sovereign wealth types to hedges to mutuals to pensions. The general public and governments are so heavily invested in stocks that a collapse in markets would likely trigger catastrophic consequences to all parties. Private individuals would be harmed by pension promises unable to be met, while the large funds would face liquidation, bankruptcy or dissolution. Governments, likewise would be under attack for making pledges to the populace that could not be manifested over time, such as social security and other entitlements.

It is for those reasons, and the overall interconnectedness and fragility of markets that corrections do not occur. People in power would be without and instead of order, there would be chaos, and that is something that central bankers and their cohorts in the government realm simply cannot stomach.

At the Close, Monday, October 23, 2017:
Dow: 23,273.96, -54.67 (-0.23%)
NASDAQ: 6,586.83, -42.23 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: 2,564.98, -10.23 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 12,384.42, -46.10 (-0.37%)

Central Banks Have Schemed Markets To Unforeseen Heights

If you're 16, eight years seems like a long time.

It's different if you're in your 50s or 60s, because you've lived longer, so eight years might be just 1/7th of your lifetime, or 1/8th, or more. When you're 16, eight years is half of your current lifetime.

Eight years (and two+ months) is also the length of the current stock market rally, and whether that seems like a long time or not, it's significant, being that this bull market has run longer and higher than even the most optimistic people might have predicted.

Who knew, when the Dow was in the dumpster, closing at 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, that the index would continue to rise, without so much as a 15% correction, uninterrupted, to its current level of 20,937.91, more than tripling in value since the Great Financial Crisis?

Even the engineers and planners behind the massive, central bank asset buying spree had no idea where this was heading, though they were fairly certain that their actions would take stocks much higher. And, it is also likely that the new genii at the Fed has no clue either. Global markets have indeed been in uncharted territory since at least March, 2009, but it's getting to the point - just like the current and ongoing spate of fake news - that nobody even cares anymore.

One might look at his or her quarterly or monthly pension portfolio or 401k and see that the money keeps rolling in and not give a second thought as to why. Life is good, one would assume, and retirement will be even better!

It's this kind of naive thinking that has led many a bull market or bullish stock picker to ruin, but, it does really seem different this time, because it truly is. Never before have the central banks from nearly every developed country coordinated in such a manner to produce such an ungodly financial bubble.

Bubbles eventually burst. Big ones make loud noises.

At the Close, 5/23/17:
Dow: 20,937.91, +43.08 (0.21%)
NASDAQ: 6,138.71, +5.09 (0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,398.42, +4.40 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,604.62, +19.41 (0.17%)

The Market as The Matrix; Most People Took The Blue Pill

In case you’re not sure just what a “dead cat bounce” is, imagine taking a dead cat up to the top of a three-story building and dropping it to the ground.

It will bounce, but not much. This is precisely what occurred in US stocks on Thursday, the market getting a reprieve after Wednesday’s bloodbath.

One can try mightily to dissect the various moving parts of the market and arrive at pure conjecture as to what is happening any given day, but these days, reality has become stranger than fiction by massive degrees, even in such hallowed enclaves as financial markets, supposedly not prone to manipulation, fakery, or thievery, but that’s exactly what is on the table.

To say that the Fed, in conjunction with other central banks and their commercial bank proxies, own the market is likely a basic truth. To think that once owned, these players would not mold the narrative and the movement to exactly their liking, is the essence of naivety.

Since 2000, the markets have been owned, even more so since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09. Based on fiat money and dictates from money printers, the stock markets are the complete tool of enslavement. Governments, pensions, retirement funds, school districts, and all other manner of group investment are tied to “the market,” controlled by the Fed to never stop climbing, lest the debt-slavery of the American public become known.

If markets collapse, so to the deep state system of inflation and skimming, so don’t count on anything changing soon, President Trump or no President Trump, which is exactly why the deep state and the current residents of congress so oppose Mr/ Trump’s every move. He’s a threat to their control of the system.

It’s right out of the film, “The Matrix.” Most people took the blue pill.

Here's a short clip of Laurence Fishburne (Morpheus) explaining the Matrix to Keanu Reeves (Neo).


At The Close, 5/18/17:
Dow: 20,663.02, +56.09 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 6,055.13, +43.89 (0.73%)
S&P 500: 2,365.72, +8.69 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 11,434.06, +10.53 (0.09%)

Dow At Record Highs 11 Staight Sessions; Eye On PPT, Central Bank Intervention

As has been the case for multiple sessions over many years, a rally in the final hour of trading pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new all-time high, with the NASDAQ and S&P averages also closing up, but short of record highs. They NYSE Composite was fractionally lower.

In the red the entire session, the Dow gained 70 points from 3:00 to 4:00 pm ET, with other major averages also gaining. This kind of activity has been a market feature since at least 2001, when the existence of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) turned from urban myth to global reality. The PPT, created by Presidential Order #12631, signed on March 18, 1988 by President Ronald Reagan is also known as The Working Group on Financial Markets, is, in reality, a body of financial authorities consisting of:

• The Secretary of the Treasury, or his or her designee (as Chairperson of the Working Group);
• The Chairperson of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his or her designee;
• The Chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his or her designee; and
• The Chairperson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Writers such as John Crudele of the New York Post have been critical of the Working Group's market-bending actions and foreign journalists from the Daily Telegraph and The Observer have suggested that the group has often exceeded its mandate.

Thus, tin-foil-hat type conspiracies have continued to suggest that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been manipulating markets higher for years, and, while such coordinated action has yet to be unearthed by the mainstream media, sites such as ZeroHedge.com and other fringe outlets report that while the PPT may or may not be always active in markets, there's no doubt that central banks, notable, the European Central Bank (ECB), Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) are heavily invested in US and other global equities, making a mockery of the global regime of fiat money.

There are those who say intervention by government-sponsored agencies is not altogether nefarious, and some who believe such market-rigging is a good and reliable replacement for Adam Smith's "invisible hand" of the markets, it cannot be understated adequately that such activity will eventually undermine the integrity of financial markets and instruments.

Being based almost entirely upon faith and trust, financial markets have become the backbone of the global economy. If that faith and trust is broken - an unlikely occurrence, as the central banks, governments, and major brokerages work hand-in-hand largely toward the same end (higher stock prices) - the fragile system would crumble. An antecedent (and, much larger market) to the inner workings of financial markets is the bond market, which has also been pistol-whipped regularly by central bank policy and directive. On Friday, the US Treasury 10-Year Note fell to its lowest level in nearly three months, closing out the week at 2.3170, a direct result of higher stock prices, also known in the investing world as TINA (There Is No Alternative... to stocks).

With central banks and government agencies regularly interjecting themselves and their policies into financial markets, the natural question becomes: how stable and trustworthy are these markets and who gains from such manipulation?

Answering the question bluntly, the markets are only as stable as the institutions behind them, which is today a matter of considerable conjecture and discordant viewpoints. Purists posit that the mountains of debt produced by individuals, businesses, and governments is simply unsustainable and that a rout and crash, while unpredictable, is inevitable. The obvious conclusion to the other half of the question "qui bono" (who gains) is those in power and in control of such vast swaths of money, the governments, oligarchs, commercial and central banks. Beyond that, those in power consider themselves to be benefactors of the millions who gain from higher stock prices, inflation and boosts to massively underfunded pension funds.

With this degree of chutzpah in and on the minds of the central bankers and government leaders of the world, there is little doubt that they believe their actions to be highly beneficial to the orderly running of global finances while also not taking into account the falsity and pervasive inequities that are given rise by those same actions. Those with power over financial markets hold an incredible degree of responsibility, a responsibility that seemingly has gone beyond the pale, over the moon and into its own orbit.

Essentially, those who have questioned or taken positions contrary to the policies of the Fed and their brethren central banks, especially since the GFC of 2008, have been serially decimated in the markets. With stock indices raging without underlying fundamental bases, the planet may have reached a point of no return, wherein all matters financial are no longer in the control of individuals, but, rather, controlled by an opaque group of self-appointed masters.

One can only hope that they are well-grounded and essentially good-natured, because the alternatives would be brazen in concept and bizarre in execution.

At The Close, 2.24.17:
Dow: 20,821.76, +11.44 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 5,845.31, +9.80 (0.17%)
S&P 500: 2,367.34, +3.53 (0.15%)
NYSE Composite: 11,541.29, -14.87 (-0.02%)

For the Week:
Dow: +197.71 (0.96%)
NASDAQ: +6.73 (0.12%)
S&P 500: +16.18 (0.69%)
NYSE Composite: +30.38 (0.26)

Bubble Superfecta: Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500, NYSE Composite All Close At New Records

As the week comes to a stunning close, it's official, every market in America is officially in deep into bubble territory.

Consider that the major indices all closed at all-time highs today and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up a whopping 2200 points since election day, November 8, 2016. That amounts to a gain of just over 12% in three months. At that rate of ascent, 22,000 on the Dow should be a no-brainer by the end of 2017.

Nothing other than stupidity, other people's money, greed, and momentum were needed to foment one of the most rapid rises in the history of the Dow. The other indices have surely been along for the ride; even the broad measure of the entire NYSE Composite cracked to a record close today.

Not to suggest that a reversal is imminent (been that way for 6 years at least), but for some perspective, let's examine where these markets were at the depths of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), on March 9, 2009.

Dow: 6,547.05
NASDAQ: 1,268.64
S&P 500: 676.53
NYSE Composite: 4,226.31

In the span of eight years, during what has ostensibly been the weakest recovery after a recession since the Great Depression, the Dow and S&P have more than tripled, the NASDAQ has more than quadrupled, and the poor old NYSE Comp. is just short of tripling.

So, if you missed it you missed it, but there still may be time to get in. Nobody knows where this is going to end, but we can all thank Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen for oodles of free cash injections worldwide (QE), zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and the most reckless economic policies the world has ever witnessed.

It's still ongoing, though. The ECB and BOJ are still pumping money into their markets, and, unless you missed it, none other than the Swiss National Bank holds more than $64 billion in US equities.

Who said these central bankers don't know what they're doing?

Enjoy the weekend!

At the Close, Friday, February 10, 2017:
Dow: 20,269.37, +96.97 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 5,734.13, +18.95 (0.33%)
S&P 500: 2,316.10, +8.23 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite: 11,377.72, +50.04 (0.44%)

For the Week:
Dow: +197.91 (0.99%)
NASDAQ: +67.36 (1.19%)
S&P 500: +18.68 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite: +50.04 (0.44%)