Non-Farm Payrolls Up 266,000 In November, Unemployment At 50-Year Low

Since markets stalled out on Thursday in anticipation of the November non-farm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it's prudent to focus on what that report says about the US economy and prospects going forward.

Released at 8:30 am ET, the report concluded that there was an increase of 266,000 jobs created in November. That was well beyond all expectations, which centered around 185,000. The gain was the largest since January of this year, but is somewhat misleading since it includes 46,000 workers at GM plants in Michigan and Kentucky returning from a 40-day strike.

So, a more reliable, realistic number would be around 220,000, which is still much better than expected, and puts to rest the notion that the US job market had stalled out.

Wall Street is expectedly ebullient over the big surprise number which shows that the US economy is still moving forward and that the labor market remains tight. Unemployment dropped to a 50-year low of 3.5%

Another encouraging sign was wage growth, which shot up 3.1%. This is a strong signal that the economy is in good shape and that the labor market is tight. Employees are asking for - and receiving - pay increases and better benefits from employers.

A main takeaway from the retail sector in the pre-holiday period was that a mere 2,000 jobs were added, but the catch is in the distribution of that small gain. Within the industry, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+22,000) and in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000), while clothing and clothing accessories stores were decimated, losing 18,000 jobs.

Attributable to the "Amazon effect" and to great strides over the years to online merchandising, as well as the overabundance of clothing outlets and their reliance on such a narrow segment, it is not surprising that purveyors of shirts, slacks, dresses, and accessories were hardest hit. Heightened competition in the space and slim profit margins due to heavy discounting also contributed to the demise of a good number of chains.

Among major chains that largely will be turning out the lights - or have already done so - in 2019 were Payless Shoes, Gymboree, Fred's, Charlotte Russe, Shopco.

Forever 21, Dressbarn, and Gap stores also announced a high number of store closings over the past year. The trend will continue, with as many as an additional 75,000 stores potentially lost by 2026, according to investment bank UBS.

The trend is clear. Shop online or at general merchandise retailers. The glory days of single sector retailing are long past.

At the Close, Thursday, December 5, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,677.79, +28.01 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 8,570.70, +4.03 (+0.05%)
S&P 500: 3,117.43, +4.67 (+0.15%)
NYSE Composite: 13,482.30, +24.33 (+0.18%)

On Black Friday, Wall Street Saw Red

Stocks finished the week with gains, even though the shortened session on Friday saw widespread declines.

While shoppers were out at retail locales seeking the big deals, Wall Street types were squaring their books in an attempt to get out ahead of what looks to be disconcerting news on the US-China trade front. Issues in the ongoing trade and tariff tete-a-tete have expanded beyond economics, spilling over into the political realm as Washington passed - and the president signed - resolutions in support of the Hong Kong protestors and human rights, roiling top Chinese officials who issued sharp rebukes on Thanksgiving Thursday.

Hong Kong's reliance upon and distancing from the Chinese political apparatus has served as a launching board for US rhetoric on freedom and rights, the interjection of which can only make what were already-tense negotiations even more complicated. US-China relations now overshadows all other conceptual and practical conditions and Wall Street has taken notice.

Shoppers snapped up $7.4 billion worth of online holiday goodies on Black Friday and are poised to spend another $9.4 billion on Cyber Monday. The numbers for online spending were records. Including Thanksgiving Day sales, online retailing grossed $11.6 billion.

Figures for brick and mortar retailers were not readily available, and may be somewhat blurred by innovations such as "buy online, pick up in store," an outreach by physical stores to combine the best of online shopping and foot traffic to stores.

It's shaping up to be a solid holiday shopping season, unsurprising, due to the robust economy, low unemployment, and the rising stock market. Consumers are not only feeling buoyant, the actually have more money in their wallets from the tax cuts made law in 2017 and implemented in 2018 and 2019.

Otherwise, the week of Thanksgiving and Black Friday was notable only for Friday's slide in the stock market. Normally, equity buyers rush in on a wave of enthusiasm. This year, however, the trade situation with China has cast a long shadow on any enthusiasm.

That dour mood may turn out to be misplaced. While the Chinese continue to foot-drag and seek rollbacks of existing tariffs before signing onto any phase one deal, American negotiators stick with the hard line established early on by President Trump. His contentions that China needs our dollars more than we need their goods, and that China has taken advantage of weaknesses by his predecessors for decades continue to guide trade policy. At the end of any deal, there has to be appreciation for not necessarily an even playing field, but one which is not slanted East. The president has made it clear that he will not acquiesce to Chinese demands or bullying and that steadfastness has kept the two countries from reaching even the most rudimentary agreements.

The likelihood of the trade war continuing through the Democrat party primaries and into the general election season are strong. China appears to be playing the long game, believing that Trump may not win re-election and that they will get a better shake from an incoming Democrat president.

Whistling in the wind is what trade negotiators are calling China's hopeful stand-offishness. Even while impeachment is being bandied about the House of Representatives, the White House sees it as no real threat since Republicans in the Senate would be highly unlikely to find Trump guilty in an impeachment trial, even if the House gins up watered-down articles of impeachment.

The entire impeachment fiasco has been nothing more than an annoyance for the White House and President Trump. Meanwhile, public sentiment for removal from office has peaked and is falling. The latest polls find fewer people engaged on the impeachment issue as the numbers in favor of impeachment have begun to slide.

In the House this week there will be more grandstanding by Democrats, whining by Republicans, and less interest by te American people, whose approval of congress is so low it hardly registers a positive number. Americans would like their government to actually do something constructive on anything outside of politics, health care being the most-often cited issue that warrants attention, along with immigration.

Flailing about and waving hands about "high crimes and misdemeanors" isn't cutting it for huge swaths of the American electorate, especially when the "evidence" produced by the anti-Trump forces consists largely of hearsay, innuendo, third party opinions, and actions that aren't even considered criminal.

Insistence by Democrats to pursue impeachment of Mr. Trump may turn out to be one of the worst political strategies ever devised, by some of the most disingenuous politicians ever to have disgraced the halls of congress.

At the Close, Friday, November 29, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,051.41, -112.59 (-0.40%)
NASDAQ: 8,665.47, -39.70 (-0.46%)
S&P 500: 3,140.98, -12.65 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 13,545.21, -62.39 (-0.46%)

For the Week:
Dow: +175.79 (+0.63%)
NASDAQ: +145.59 (+1.71%)
S&P 500: +30.69 (+0.99%)
NYSE Composite: +104.26 (+0.78%)