On Black Friday, Wall Street Saw Red

Stocks finished the week with gains, even though the shortened session on Friday saw widespread declines.

While shoppers were out at retail locales seeking the big deals, Wall Street types were squaring their books in an attempt to get out ahead of what looks to be disconcerting news on the US-China trade front. Issues in the ongoing trade and tariff tete-a-tete have expanded beyond economics, spilling over into the political realm as Washington passed - and the president signed - resolutions in support of the Hong Kong protestors and human rights, roiling top Chinese officials who issued sharp rebukes on Thanksgiving Thursday.

Hong Kong's reliance upon and distancing from the Chinese political apparatus has served as a launching board for US rhetoric on freedom and rights, the interjection of which can only make what were already-tense negotiations even more complicated. US-China relations now overshadows all other conceptual and practical conditions and Wall Street has taken notice.

Shoppers snapped up $7.4 billion worth of online holiday goodies on Black Friday and are poised to spend another $9.4 billion on Cyber Monday. The numbers for online spending were records. Including Thanksgiving Day sales, online retailing grossed $11.6 billion.

Figures for brick and mortar retailers were not readily available, and may be somewhat blurred by innovations such as "buy online, pick up in store," an outreach by physical stores to combine the best of online shopping and foot traffic to stores.

It's shaping up to be a solid holiday shopping season, unsurprising, due to the robust economy, low unemployment, and the rising stock market. Consumers are not only feeling buoyant, the actually have more money in their wallets from the tax cuts made law in 2017 and implemented in 2018 and 2019.

Otherwise, the week of Thanksgiving and Black Friday was notable only for Friday's slide in the stock market. Normally, equity buyers rush in on a wave of enthusiasm. This year, however, the trade situation with China has cast a long shadow on any enthusiasm.

That dour mood may turn out to be misplaced. While the Chinese continue to foot-drag and seek rollbacks of existing tariffs before signing onto any phase one deal, American negotiators stick with the hard line established early on by President Trump. His contentions that China needs our dollars more than we need their goods, and that China has taken advantage of weaknesses by his predecessors for decades continue to guide trade policy. At the end of any deal, there has to be appreciation for not necessarily an even playing field, but one which is not slanted East. The president has made it clear that he will not acquiesce to Chinese demands or bullying and that steadfastness has kept the two countries from reaching even the most rudimentary agreements.

The likelihood of the trade war continuing through the Democrat party primaries and into the general election season are strong. China appears to be playing the long game, believing that Trump may not win re-election and that they will get a better shake from an incoming Democrat president.

Whistling in the wind is what trade negotiators are calling China's hopeful stand-offishness. Even while impeachment is being bandied about the House of Representatives, the White House sees it as no real threat since Republicans in the Senate would be highly unlikely to find Trump guilty in an impeachment trial, even if the House gins up watered-down articles of impeachment.

The entire impeachment fiasco has been nothing more than an annoyance for the White House and President Trump. Meanwhile, public sentiment for removal from office has peaked and is falling. The latest polls find fewer people engaged on the impeachment issue as the numbers in favor of impeachment have begun to slide.

In the House this week there will be more grandstanding by Democrats, whining by Republicans, and less interest by te American people, whose approval of congress is so low it hardly registers a positive number. Americans would like their government to actually do something constructive on anything outside of politics, health care being the most-often cited issue that warrants attention, along with immigration.

Flailing about and waving hands about "high crimes and misdemeanors" isn't cutting it for huge swaths of the American electorate, especially when the "evidence" produced by the anti-Trump forces consists largely of hearsay, innuendo, third party opinions, and actions that aren't even considered criminal.

Insistence by Democrats to pursue impeachment of Mr. Trump may turn out to be one of the worst political strategies ever devised, by some of the most disingenuous politicians ever to have disgraced the halls of congress.

At the Close, Friday, November 29, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,051.41, -112.59 (-0.40%)
NASDAQ: 8,665.47, -39.70 (-0.46%)
S&P 500: 3,140.98, -12.65 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 13,545.21, -62.39 (-0.46%)

For the Week:
Dow: +175.79 (+0.63%)
NASDAQ: +145.59 (+1.71%)
S&P 500: +30.69 (+0.99%)
NYSE Composite: +104.26 (+0.78%)

On Cyber Monday, Black Friday Left Wall Street Red-Faced

So, everybody was shopping online today, this being Cyber Monday, the busiest online shopping day of the year, right?

Well, maybe, but there were a lot of people shopping online last week, instead of fighting the mobs at the malls and big box stores; so many, in fact, that Black Friday didn't really live up to the hype. It was kind of a bust, as the voting, via stock trades on Monday, clearly demonstrated.

Stocks took a nosedive at the end of the day, as they've done the past three sessions, led by the two strongest consumer sectors. Consumer discretionary was the loss leader of the day, with names like Aeropostale (ARO, -5.5%), Urban Outfitters (URBN, -3.5%) and Sears (SHLD, -5.2%) leading the way down.

That's not a good sign for the holiday season, which, according to now-skeptical analysts, expect to be the worst since 2009.

Retailers were not completely to blame for Monday's selloff, which was led by the Dow Industrials. Rather, the selling, which accelerated into the close, as has been the recent motif, was probably tied more to profit-taking. After all, stocks have had a stellar run in 2013, with the Dow up 26%, the NASDAQ ahead by nearly 30% and the S&P sporting a 28% rise on the year.

It's been a grand year to buy and hold stocks; one certainly can't blame anyone for partaking of some fat holiday profits, but the overall trend of trading has been puzzling to the perma-bull crowd, with the current bull market closing in on 57 months.

The trend may remain intact for a while longer, though, because there's nearly zero chance of the Federal Reserve announcing any kind of tapering of their bond purchase program at the December meeting of the FOMC (Dec. 17 & 18), risking market displeasure and a downturn which would cast quite a negative pallor on an otherwise outstanding year for speculators, risk-takers and even cautious investors.

That's why it would be unwise to read too much into one day's trading, or even the recent pattern of late-session selling at this juncture.

The likelihood is that profit-taking will be pushed forward into the first few weeks of December, saving the upside for the wise guys who know, above all, that the Fed isn't going to make any substantive end-of-year changes. If anything, investors should stand pat until the 30th, because the Fed will ensure a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year for all.

On the flip side, gold and silver were absolutely smashed lower. Whether the continued selling is part and parcel of the recent distaste for anything not fiat-related or more of an exacerbated "sell the losers" mentality is an open question not soon to be answered.

Dow 16,008.77, -77.64 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ 4,045.26, -14.63 (-0.36%)
S&P 1,800.90, -4.91 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Note 99.58 -0.42 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ Volume 1.61 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.08 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1620-4074
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 316-90
WTI crude oil: 93.82, +1.10
Gold: 1,221.90, -28.50
Silver: 19.29, -0.744
Corn: 424.50, 0.00